The House of Crouse 10.04.08: Week 5 Edition

Posted by Mark Crouse on 10.04.2008

This week, Mark closes out fantasy baseball season and previews Week 5 in the NFL. Check out the free fantasy advice.

Welcome to The House of Crouse for Week 5 of the NFL season. Since fantasy baseball has concluded, I'll start this edition by giving some analysis of the '08 season and give my first round for '09 as it stands now. Sure, it will change by the time free agency ends and the offseason ends, but why not speculate? After closing baseball season, we'll take a look at Week 5 in random observation format.

In going over my baseball preview columns, a few things stood out to me. Here are some predictions and rankings I got right on the nose:

-I ranked Jay Bruce in my top 50 outfielders at #48. Sure, he had an up and down year once called up, but at least I saw the potential.

-I ranked Geovany Soto as the #7 catcher. He ended the season ranked even higher than that, but no one had the Cub backstop as a starting option.

-You can thank me later for Adrian Gonzalez. I ranked him #7 at first base above guys like Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, and Paul Konerko. That worked out well.

-I predicted Miguel Cabrera would improve on his '07 stats with his trade to Detroit and was a first round pick. '07 stats: .320 AVG, 34 HR, 119 RBI, 91 R. '08 stats: .292 AVG, 37 HR (led AL), 127 RBI, 85 R. Did he improve is stats? Sadly, no. Was he a first-round pick? In hindsight, yes, since he led all third basemen in HR and RBI.

-I ranked Matt Garza at #41 in my starting pitcher rankings. 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA and a 124 WHIP makes him a contributor to any fantasy staff. No other rankings I saw had him even in the picture.

-I nailed the closers as a group, by advising everyone not to take a top one and to piece together a makeshift group from the bottom third of the rankings. Sure, K-Rod dominated, but bottom-feeders Joakim Soria (42), Brian Wilson (41), and Kerry Wood (34) all converted more saves than top-ranked options Bobby Jenks (30), J.J. Putz (15), and Trevor Hoffman (30).

And in the interest of balance, here are some players I totally missed on. Don't ever say I'm not at least honest, because some of these really hurt.

-I was probably the most vocally negative about eveyone's favorite trade-deadline darling C.C. Sabathia. I really thought this was the year his arm finally gives out, but he really shoved it in my face by going 17-10 with an unheard of ten complete games and ending the season pitching on three days rest three times. Who knew? 253 IP and no let up in sight.

-I had Josh Hamilton ranked #37 at outfield. My only defense is that no one else thought he'd be the first half dominator and overall fantasy all-star he became in Texas. Whoops.

-I was so high on Justin Verlander I ranked him my #5 starter going into '08. I still can't understand how he finished with a losing record and a 4.84 ERA. To be upfront, he'll probably be a guy I get on a lot of teams next year since I'll rule this year as a fluke. Maybe I'll get burned again, but Verlander has three great pitches and has shown the command to be a top starter.

-I was unaware that Kevin Youkilis would have a better year than Big Papi. Now I know he's for real, and knowing is half the battle.

-I had so much failth in Prince Fielder that I ranked him #2 at first base and stated that I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms Ryan Howard for the top spot. My bad Lance Berkman, Albert Pujols, and Mark Teixeira.

So let's take a cursory look into the future and throw out a possible first round for next year's drafts.

1.Alex Rodriguez-3B-NYY-He played in 138 games and still scored 104 runs, hit 35 HR, and knocked in 103, while hovering around .300 and stealing 18 bases. He's still the best.
2.Hanley Ramirez-SS-FLA-He went 30-30 and scored 125 runs while hitting .301. Sounds like a superstar to me.
3.Ryan Howard-1B-PHI-Best power hitter in baseball. And it's not even close.
4.David Wright-3B-NYM
5.Grady Sizemore-OF-CLE
6.Jose Reyes-SS-NYM
7.Chase Utley-2B-PHI
8.Ryan Braun-OF-MIL-He won't qualify at 3B after spending an entire year in the outfield.
9.Albert Pujols-1B-STL
10.Miguel Cabrera-3B-DET
11.Johan Santana-SP-NYM
12.Matt Holiday-OF-COL-His power numbers were down, but he's a good candidate to rebound and get near his '07 numbers. If he does, he's a steal at #12.



Now onto the NFL, where Week 5 looms large for fantasy owners. Here are some thoughts on each matchup.

-Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens-The Ravens have been running a video loop of Super Bowl XXXV, where they made Kerry Collins look like Joan Collins. This should be a low-scoring affair. Chris Johnson is the only Titan I would even think about playing, and he's a marginal starter against the Raven defense. The Titan D is equally dominant, and that makes Raven skill players bad plays on Sunday.

-Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers-Remember when KC beat Denver last week. It won't happen again, and their offense will return to amateur status against a stout Panther defense. Steve Smith, Jake Delhomme, and Jonathan Stewart are strong plays.

-Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions-Detroit can't stop the run, and Chicago loves to shove rookie sensation Matt Forte down their opponents' throats. Big things for Forte are expected. Temper expectations for Calvin Johnson as Jon Kitna gets pummeled by a relentless Bear pass rush.

-Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers-In the ultimate fantasy jam-up, Green Bay will wait until 90 minutes before this game to decide on Aaron Rodgers' status. The star in this game should be Michael Turner, who loves to face inadequate run defenses. Green Bay has not stopped a running back all year, allowing Tampa back Earnest Graham to top 100 yards and a score, including a 47-yard scamper. Turner is better than Graham.

-Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans-Indy hasn't been themselves so far in '08, but they have only allowed 150 passing yards per game. Matt Schaub had his first 300 yard passing game last week, but don't expect him to blow up against the Colts. Without Bob Sanders (again), look for Indy to struggle agianst the run, letting emerging rookie Steve Slaton to frustrate them all day. Look for Peyton, Wayne, and Addai to all have at least solid outings against an inferior Texan defense.

-San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins-LDT woke up and had an LDT game against Oakland last week. Expect more of the same in this one. The big question is whether Ronnie Brown will repeat Week 3's massive fantasy performance against the Chargers. Survey says: Ronnie Brown is Ronnie Brown. He'll come back to Earth this week against a faster group of linebackers that can adjust to whatever ludicrous formation they may throw out there.

-Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants-Now appearing in the Seattle lineup, NFL receivers! It's tempting to insert Deion Branch and Bobby Engram into your lineup, but wait a week. Cement-shoed QB Matt Hasselbeck will be assaulted all day by the Giant pass rush. With Plaxico Burress suspended, I'd like to think the other Giant receivers would step up, but I can't believe in that. Brandon Jacobs is your best bet for Giant skill players.

-Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles-Coming off a massive road win in Dallas, the Skins head to Philly to maybe face Brian Westbrook and the fearsome Eagle defense. Signs point to Westbrook playing, but I'm not sure he'll have a big game. Jason Campbell has proven he can face pressure and still perform, so he makes an adequate starter, as well as Clinton Portis.

-Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos-Here we go again, another barn burner in Denver is afoot. I could see starting any skill player on either team since Denver's defense is a sieve and although Tampa's D is great, they are on the road and will have to win a shootout to come out on top. I especially like Brian Griese in a revenge-start special. This one should be fun to watch.

-Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals-I am fascinated by cold-weather teams that travel to the desert to face defenses that got shredded by Brett Favre to the tune of six touchdown passes. The Kurt Warner aerial assault will be slowed a bit in the wake of the Bills defense, which means he'll only throw for 300 yards and two scores. This just in, Lee Evans may catch some bombs. Start him.

-New England Patriots at San Francisco 49'ers-In another odd matchup, the Pats travel cross-country to face another bad team that have a chance to beat them. I'm not sure what to expect, but since Belechick had an extra week to prepare for Mike Nolan and company, I like Randy Moss to put up some numbers.

-Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys-Three words: play Dallas Cowboys. All of them. They are ticked, at home, and playing a scuffling Bengal team. This game will be ugly and high-scoring. The only Bengal I can see playing with any confidence is T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Chad Johnson's boasting will only assure him a subpar day, as the Cowboy secondary focuses on shutting him up.

-Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars-The Steelers looked, how shall we say, pushable against Baltimore on Monday night, but escaped with a win. Jacksonville seems to find a way to scrape by like they did against Houston. Mewelde Moore is the only living Steeler running back, but that doesn't make him a good option against the Jags. If you need to play him go ahead, but he won't blow up. On the Jags' side, no one will go nuts against the Steeler defense, but Garard will likely be serviceable if you have to start him.

-Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints-The Saints have an offense that is so diverse it should keep the pressure off Drew Brees so that he can produce. The key figure for their attack is Reggie Bush. If Bush can spread out and confuse the Minnesota front seven, Brees can go deep to Meachem and Henderson. Adrian Peterson will have a big game against a Saints defense that will be further exposed with rookie Sedrick Ellis out. I don't see Bernard Berrian or Gus Frerotte being fanasy factors.


That's a quick look at this week's games. As always, feel free to drop a comment, or email any questions or comments to [e-mail]. And as always, Godspeed.