NFL Playoff Picks 01.06.09: Round 2

Posted by Andrew Tobolowsky on 01.06.2009

We're talking about playoffs.

2-2 last week, just one shy of "thou shalt not pick no more football games."My only consolation is that Cody Dalton, who has published a book and is much better than me, made the same picks.

To my last preview, a man—no, a hero—under the name of "Warrior" posted these words: "You are underestimating the Cardinals. Not that I'm a huge fan, but they are exactly the kind of team that can beat Atlanta." He was exactly right, I couldn't have been more wrong. In retrospect I should have probably been made more nervous by the obligatory "why Atlanta can win the NFC" ESPN article focused primarily on "why not"?

The answer, apparently, was because they're not very good. But as Atlanta fans everywhere must realize, when you've got a great young QB, you're going to be okay.

A guest named "Andrew", no relation (haha!), also pointed out that the Cards, while bad, matched up well against Atlanta. Oops.

A word on the Colts-Chargers game: I didn't really care who won, though of course I'd rather be right than
wrong. But can we all just agree that NFL overtime is just awful? I mean, for godssake, either start the teams farther back, give both teams a chance to score, or require a touchdown—not that the Chargers didn't score a touchdown, but since the game was basically over once they reached the thirty, that might be a bit suspect. We're talking about a crucial football game being decided by whether or not a team can drive 50 yards or so.

And as a fan of the game at large I was bothered sincerely by the fact that every play in OT seemed to result in a Colts penalty. I don't doubt that most, if not all, actually WERE penalties but again—when all you need to do is get to the thirty to win the game did anyone REALLY want to see fast whistles? "Playoff football is exciting, but you know what would be MORE exciting? If, in a sudden death situation, the refs just handed the necessary yardage to one or the other teams. I would give that kind of drama an Oscar." Join us next week when Daniel Craig plays a Jewish person again for no apparent reason.

All kinds of congratulations to San Diego, you played a good game against a good team but forgive me if for the moment I only golf clap.

From the "things you didn't have to watch the games to know they were going to happen" department.

1. Adrian Peterson was great. 4.2 yards per carry, 2 TDs including a 40-yarder. Tarvaris Jackson did his "seriously, there was a time when our fan base was rooting for Gus Frerotte" routine (less than 50% completion rate, 35 passes, 164 yards, 4.7 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT). Winners of this years Chicago Bears memorial "hey, what if they had someone who actually knew how to throw a football" award.

2. Donovan McNabb was fine (300 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT)—more than fine really--but the most important play was Westbrook's. D McNabb is the new Brett Favre, only slightly less talented. He's very talented hisself, but you just never know. Don't even bother getting mad Eagles fans, you know it's true. Brian "Game-time decision" Westbrook is money. And Philly fans still have booed, in the last couple of decades, Santa Claus, Michael Irving getting his neck broken, Donovan McNabb getting drafted, Tiny Tim, Julius Caesar, the Hanging Gardens of Babylon, and Rent.

3. Matt Ryan, rookie QB in the big time, was both good (2 TDs) and bad (2 INTs).

4. Colts got no run support, forcing a disastrous 3rd and 2 that could have sealed the game if they could have counted on ANYBODY, resulting instead in a sack. Reggie Wayne was great, everyone else is super old.

Things that shocked you:

1. Edge James may still technically be alive.

Points to Edge as well for this week's best quote. "I can't go through this again. I didn't come here to block. I'm not an offensive lineman." No indeed, Edge, you are not.

This week's games: will there be any upsets?

I'll tell you where there won't be one. Cards vs. Panthers. The extent to which the Panthers are better than any team the Cards have come even close to beating all season is enough to make me not even all that nervous about scornfully dismissing what I have already scornfully dismissed and subsequently paid for. This could be because I'm a jackass. We'll find out soon.

But any of these other teams? Let me throw some facts at you that have sort of flown under the radar. We'll call this section why the Favorites will lose:

1. The first game the Giants were without Plax came against a crappy Redskins team. Eli was just fine, throwing for over 300 yards. Since? 123, 191, 181, 119. Granted, that last game Eli played little more than one half and the Giants didn't need it. But anyone want to guess right now how many games The Other Manning has had less than 200 yards this season? Eli "Pro Bowl" Manning? 7. Since October 13th, in a loss to the Browns, he's thrown for more than 200 just twice. His QB rating on the season, a mediocre-at-best 86.4 is still his best ever by about 9 points. Obviously didn't matter last season and the Giants are mostly a running team, but. These are just facts, people. The Giants offense is not the same without Plax. It just isn't. I'm not kidding. This is why teams put up with talented players who are also jerks. It's not because coaches are sexually attracted to bad boys. Coughlin's type is probably more like the souls of innocent virgins anyway.

2. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown two more TDs than INTs this year. Phillip Rivers has thrown for 23 more. And over 4000 yards. Also, the San Diego defense is underrated. And the Steelers do NOT have a consistent running game, which is a problem if you're not great through the air.

3. The Eagles have lost to the Bears, the Cowboys once, the Redskins twice, and infamously tied the Bengals. But only one of those losses has come in the last six games. But that one was to a terrible Redskins team in a must-win game that only later turned out not to have been a must-win by an unexpected collapse by several teams. But then they killed the Cowboys and beat the Vikings despite AP doing his best (and TJack his…well..usual, I guess). But this team is only seven games removed from benching its star QB and watching its backup throw for 73 yards. Asante Samuel sprained a hip flexor, but Westbrook seems healthy for once.

4. I have never in my life seen any one defensive player have so much of an effect on a team's season as I have seen Ed Reed this season. This is MOST RECENTLY probably because of the Sword of Damocles which is always over Chad Pennington—that he's a phenomenally accurate QB who can throw the ball about 25 yards. The Ravens can be beat deep but, as the Dolphins found out, not short. And Kerry Collins this season? 12 touchdown passes. Average of less than six per pass. Titans love to run the ball of course. Want to guess who has the most rushing yards against the Ravens this season? Ahmad Bradshaw, 96 yards. The only team to run the ball well against the Ravens is the Giants, and they've pretty much done that to everybody—which isn't true of the Titans. Want to guess how many yards the mighty runnin' Titans had last time out against the Ravens? 47. Brian Westbrook had 38. Clinton Portis had 32. Opponents are averaging 81 yards against them. You get the picture.

So every one of these games, besides the probable Cardinals stinker, has significant factors weighted in the favor of the underdog. Isn't that interesting? I think that's interesting.

Here, on the other hand, is why these things likely won't happen:

1. The Giants average 157 rush yards a game and give up only 96. They average only 199 pass yards for game, but give up only 196.

2. With the Steelers it is, mysteriously, more WHEN Ben throws those touchdowns then how many he's thrown. The Chargers are pretty good offensively, but it's not likely that Sproles will have nearly as good a game against this particular iron curtain—and its not likely that LT will play for more than a half. I don't know the guy, I'm not saying he's not tough, but it certainly does seem like he'd rather sit out then take a chance at playing poorly—due, I'm sure to injury-- in big moments, doesn't it? Now let's say this bad boy comes down to a long Kaeding fieldgoal, for example. I was very happy for him to finally hit one last game—and the other one's have been way tough! But, come on. The guy's 0-5 over 40 in playoff games. Just saying. On the other hand, the Steelers always have that last drive of theirs…And let's just point out the obvious fact of a California team having to play in Pittsburgh in January.

3. The Eagles are, mysteriously, not very good at winning close games. They've won a total of one game by less than 9 points—that one, by six. Granted that that was over the Giants, the odds against them killing the Giants are pretty high—and so. So we're talking about a game that comes down to last possessions. Not to say that McNabb has never thrived in those conditions but he has apparently both thrown up on himself and been unaware of some of the basic rules of football. More to the point it will come down to Reid vs. Coughlin. This Eagles team should NOT be underestimated, but possibly the Walrus can be underestimated without much danger, here. The Giants are extremely dangerous on the ground. The Eagles are good on the rush, but haven't faced anything like the three-headed monster the Giants CAN be when all their running backs are going good. Besides, of course, Cerberus, who guards the gates of Philadelphia for the obvious reasons.

4. While the Ravens average more rushing yards per game then the Titans, with nearly 149 or so, they do it by handing off around 40 times. That means they're predicating their wins on running the ball WHILE averaging less than 4 per carry. Which is a strange way to run an offense. And don't expect Flacco to be much help here against the Tennessee defense.

And so the verdicts as I figure it.

AFC:

Steelers-Chargers: A better defense verse a better offense. But it's supposed to snow in Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Steelers

Ravens-Titans: A fierce defense which struggles to move the ball in pretty much every way against a well rounded team that's predicated on the run. You know what does it for me here? All of Baltimore's losses this season are either to the one team that has a better defense than they do—the Steelers, or to teams that could move the ball against them either by using a TON of weapons (Giants) or by throwing deep, their one weakness (Colts). P. Manning had 3 touchdowns against them and about 300 yards. The Giants were the only team to successfully run the ball against them, presumably because they have different types of runners. The Titans are neither particularly well-rounded nor capable of throwing the deep ball.

Ravens

NFC:

Giants-Eagles: I hate doing this. Saying nice things about the Eagles makes me feel dirty. But they're peaking at the right time and the type of teams that could handle them without much difficulty are mostly in the AFC. They're kind of like the Nets from a few years back—kept getting to the finals and losing. Yeah, what they have probably can't beat what the other conference has. But for now they only have to play their conference….I would really like to be wrong. It's definitely possible. But I don't think anyone's taken the pulse of the Giants since they cruised to the division title like nine games ago and without their number one deep threat, their runs are going to have a hard time getting off the ground. Oh well. As much as I hate this, at least it's not as bad as ACTUALLY being from Philadelphia. *Shudder*.

Eagles

Cards-Panthers: Copy and paste what I said last week, and maybe I'll be right this time.

Panthers