Inside The Penalty Box 09.25.06: San Jose Goaltending Battle - Nabokov vs. Toskala
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 09.25.2006
San Jose has the biggest goaltending controversy right now between Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala. Who will win out? Plus, the final positional look at the upcoming fantasy hockey season!
Battling for playing time is part of every sport.
No player wants to be considered a "backup," and no player wants to be overshadowed by somebody else.
And in hockey, the biggest controversies for playing time always tend to be between the pipes.
Goaltenders always want to be the "the guy," not sitting on the bench for majority of the season, but instead being the star making that late-game glove save that salvage a victory. Only veterans who have already had their time in the sun are okay with being relegated to a backup role, to provide leadership and advice for their young counterparts in addition to going into the game when they are needed.
This season is bound to find it's fair share of goalie controversies. In fact, some have been huge storylines starting from the summer and continuing as we speak. But the biggest one that is being discussed now is coming right out of San Jose.
San Jose Sharks: Evgeni Nabokov vs. Vesa Toskala
VS.
Credit: www.sharkspage.com
This goalie battle is the most highlighted so far, and it's the one I find most intriguing. That's mostly because I really see the San Jose Sharks as the team that will make it to the Stanley Cup Finals as the Western Conference Champions (something I will look more into next week.) And if their goalie situation is in constant turmoil, that will only cause problems in their effort to win the greatest trophy in sports.
Evgeni Nabokov is the more experienced of the two, having three 30-win seasons under his belt. He was the rookie of the year in 2000-2001 when he won 32 games and had a .915 SV% and 2.19 GAA. He was given a four-year contract extension last year at the price of $21.5 million. Nabokov is the logical choice to be the Sharks' starter. But that's why logic doesn't always work.
Later into the season, after the Winter Olympics in Turin, Nabokov had a lot of problems in net and Toskala took the starting job over.
In 37 total games, Toskala had 23 wins with a 2.56 GAA and .901 SV%, which was better than Nabokov's 16 wins in 45 total games with a 3.10 GAA and .885 SV%. Toskala also led San Jose in the playoffs, playing 11 games and winning six of them with a 2.44 GAA and .910 SV%. At this point, it seemed like Nabokov's job was lost.
But that's not the case, as the two are in a battle for playing time in the preseason. San Jose is not jumping to declare a winner, and Nabokov's 23-save effort in the Sharks' preseason game against Vancouver must be a huge part of that.
In the end, one of these players is going to end up being traded. I can't foresee a half-and-half scenario all season in San Jose, especially with the kind of money Nabokov is making. And considering what he is making compared to Toskala's $1.375 million salary for the upcoming season, I have to assume Nabokov will end up being traded to a team in serious need of goaltending. Not only would this allow the cheaper option to take over the starting role without any questions, but the odd-man out in Nolan Schaefer would be able to backup Toskala on a full-time basis.
It's unfortunate because, in the end, I do believe Nabokov is the more talented goalie. But money is going to be a deciding factor in this one.
If I were in the spot to make the decision, my number one goalie would be Nabokov, without a shadow of a doubt. But the Sharks are going to go by committee until somebody completely outshines the other, or a deal comes their way that the team cannot refuse.
A little look at some fantasy hockey … Part Four
It's time to take a look at the final positional portion of ITPB's look at the upcoming fantasy hockey season. Last week, it was center. This week, we cover wingers – both left and right.
Left Wings
1. Ilya Kovalchuk, Atlanta Thrashers- Ilya Kovalchuk has, and will be for some time, the prominent left wing in the NHL. Kovalchuk finished last season with just under 100 points to his credit (98 to be exact.) He scored 52 goals and had 46 assists, along with 56 power play points, 68 penalty minutes and seven game-winning scores. Kovalchuk even led the NHL with 27 goals on the man advantage. Some people might think his status drops with the loss of Marc Savard at center, who will now be replaced with Bobby Holik. And though I can understand the concern, that move will not hurt his power play status, and I'm sure he and Marion Hossa, who will be on the other wing, can more than help each other out in the even strength department. Kovalchuk will top 100 points this season, and will once again surpass 50 goals. He has constantly improved his goal and point totals since he's been in the NHL, and I see no reason why that trend won't continue. Kovalchuk is a mid-to-late first round pick.
2. Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals- The 2005-2006 Rookie of the Year winner has some high expectations to live up to now that people have seen just how talented a player he can be. Alexander Ovechkin ranked third in overall scoring last season with 106 points, tied for second in goals with Kovalchuk at 52, tied for 20th in assists with 54, sixth in power play goals with 21, and tied for eighth among forwards in power play assists with 31. Plus, he had 52 penalty minutes and five game-winning goals. That's definitely one hell of a season, especially on a team with little expectation for success and where the next best player scored 49 less points than him (Dainius Zubrus – 57 points.) Though this might go against popular opinion, I don't anticipate Ovechkin having as good a season in 2006-2007. And though he will still have a mega-impressive year, I'm counting more on 90-95 points from him with about 45 or so goals rather than a 100+ point year. Those are still great numbers, but not top three to five, which is where he'll likely be off the board in many fantasy drafts.
3. Markus Naslund, Vancouver Canucks- The Vancouver Canucks look to be experimenting with Markus Naslund, placing him on a line with the Sedin twins. And so far during preseason, it's worked (even though the line combination has been used in one game.) The Canucks are a very new team, with the best goalie in the league between the pipes and without the distraction of Todd Bertuzzi. Though I still don't consider them a playoff-caliber team, Naslund should prove he is still one of the best offensive specialists the NHL has to offer. Last season was an off one for Naslund, only scoring 79 points between 32 goals and 47 assists. Though stellar numbers for some players, that's poor compared to the 84 points he scored the season before and the 104 he scored in 2002-2003. Coming right out and saying Naslund is going to score 100+ points next season might be a bit too bold, but I'm banking on him grabbing over 90. He should grab around 45 goals and the same amount of power play points, and I wouldn't be surprised if he finished as one of the more dependable game-winning goal players in the league. Naslund will be off the board anywhere in the second round.
4. Simon Gagne, Philadelphia Flyers- I put Simon Gagne at number four with caution. He is only the fourth best left wing in the NHL if Peter Forsberg remains healthy for at least 70 games on the season. If Forsberg suits up for less than that, Gagne's status falls because a lot of his success rides on the playmaking ability of the talented center. But figuring a best-case scenario, I don't doubt Gagne will reach the 50-goal plateau. Hell, he was only three off from 50 last season and he missed 10 games on the year while Forsberg missed 22. I think that magic is going to slip a bit and he won't be able to get near 50 if they miss that kind of time again, but Gagne has the goal scoring ability as long as Forsberg can put the puck on his stick. Again, in a best-case scenario, Gagne should reach 50, possibly 55, goals and will likely finish with somewhere between 85-90 points. He will not be the greatest option on the man advantage or for penalty minutes, but he has not had a season with a plus/minus rating less than +11 (which just shows how great of a two-way player he is) and he should stack up a solid amount of game-winners for Philadelphia. Gagne will probably go toward the backend of the second round, or somewhere in the early-to-mid third.
5. Dany Heatley, Ottawa Senators- Dany Heatley answered any and all questions last season as to whether the fatal car accident he was in would have a permanent impact on his career. He went from Atlanta to Ottawa in a change of scenery deal, and he posted career-highs in goals (50), assists (53), points (103), plus/minus rating (+29), penalty minutes (89), power play goals (23), short handed goals (two), short handed assists (two), game-winning goals (seven), shots on goal (300) and scoring percentage (.167.) Or, in other words, almost every single offensive category that has any relevance to fantasy hockey. He ranked top five in goals and points and has the luxury of remaining on the same line that made him such a success with Jason Spezza at center and Daniel Alfredsson on the right wing. Honestly, if people view Heatley as a top three left wing, I'm definitely willing to listen to the argument. I would anticipate Heatley finishing high 90s in points, with 45-50 goals and 45-50 assists. He should be off the board in the mid-to-late first round.
Honorable Mention:
Rick Nash, Columbus Blue Jackets- Though the Blue Jackets are being snubbed by not having Nikolai Zherdev under contract to play alongside Rick Nash next season, they picked up an insurance policy in Anson Carter. And the man who managed to turn the Sedin twins into 70-points players, and racked up 33 goals in the process, should help Nash hit some career-highs in the coming season. Of course, nothing is guaranteed on Carter playing on that top line, and the loss of Sergei Fedorov for a few weeks doesn't help. But if Gilbert Brule can play like the sixth overall pick that he was in the 2005 draft, and either Carter or David Vyborny establish themselves as first line wingers, Nash should be able to reach 50 goals and work on getting that assist total to around 30 for around 80 points. Nash is likely to be off the board in the third round, and though he might be a risk at that point in a draft, I think he would become a steal if he slips into the fourth.
Right Wings
1. Jaromir Jagr, New York Rangers- All it took was a new NHL and a mostly Czech team to re-establish Jaromir Jagr as one of the most talented players across the NHL. Jagr reached his highest point total since the 2000-2001 season with 123 total points, which ranked second in the entire league. Jagr also ranked second in goals with 54, tied for third in assists with 69, tied for second in plus/minus at +34, tied for second in power play goals with 24 and tied for third in game-winning goals with nine. Jagr is back to his old self, and he really only lost the goals lead and points lead in the last few games of the season. Jagr will definitely top 100 points again on an even further improved New York Rangers squad, and I'll go as far as to say he will actually lead the league in points this season. His career-high in points is 149 with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 1995-1996. In 2006-2007, I think Jagr can top that, or at the very least, come within five points of it. That would require about 65 goals and 85 assists from Jagr, but if anybody can do it, it would be him. With those kinds of numbers, he would be a number one overall pick, but for those that feel I'm over-predicting and want to play it safe, he is still at the very least a top three fantasy draft selection.
2. Daniel Alfredsson, Ottawa Senators- I think Daniel Alfredsson has the unfortunate spot of being one of the most underrated players in the NHL. He is a good leader for the Senators, and really took over once Alexei Yashin was dumped from the team. Across the board, Alfredsson is a top-notch player. Last season, he tied his teammate, Heatley, in points with 103, and managed 43 goals and 60 assists in the process with 48 points coming on the power play. Add eight game-winners, a +29 rating and 50 penalty minutes, and Alfredsson was a major contributor to fantasy stats. I think he will continue that trend next season, once again topping 100 points and leading the Senators to another successful season. He's definitely a 40-goal, 60-assist threat every season now, especially considering who his linemates are. Alfredsson is likely a late-first round draft selection.
3. Marian Hossa, Atlanta Thrashers- More so than Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa will be affected by the departure of Marc Savard. But it cannot be forgotten that Hossa has scored over 80 points every season in the past three. And two of those seasons were in Ottawa. Kovalchuk alone makes Hossa a better player. And, if anything, Holik provides protection for both Kovalchuk and him. Is Hossa going to hit 100 points for the first time in his career? Probably not. But I'm definitely on board with the thinking that he will top 90, which he did last season with 39 goals and 53 assists. On top of that, he had a career-high in PIMs with 67 in addition to 39 power play points and seven game-winning goals. Hossa can definitely rise back up to 40+-goal status in addition to another 50-assist season. He should be off the board in the mid-second round.
4. Jonathan Cheechoo, San Jose Sharks- Jonathan Cheechoo is going way too high in fantasy drafts, off the board in the first round in most leagues. He did lead the league in goals last season with 56, and the main reason he did that in Joe Thornton is still there. But I don't see J-CHOO as a consistent 50-goal threat. A 93-point season just seems bizarre. I don't think a goal total in the 40s is out of the question, and maybe he will knock out 40 assists as well, pretty much tapping out at 90 points on the season. That's still damn good, but not first round good. Regardless, he still holds value in the game-winning goal area, as he had 11 last year, and power play point total, as he topped 40. It's possible he could once against go past 90 and hit the 50-goal mark, but I just don't see it happening, even with a full season of Thornton at center. He's a stellar second round pick if you ask me, but he's likely going to be gone before then.
5. Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames- Jarome Iginla should still be a late-first round pick at the very least, but because his numbers tailed off a bit last season, he's more like a mid-to-late second rounder, or even a third rounder, in most fantasy leagues. One season after tying for the league-lead in goals with 41, and three seasons after holding the league-lead in goals with 52, he only managed to score 35 last year. Added with 32 assists, Iginla matched his exact point total and combination from two seasons ago with 67. But while that does lend to some level of inconsistency, it was easy to tell Iginla was just having an off-year last season. And if anything else, he's due for a big improvement this season. With Alex Tanguay on the other wing, Iginla is going to have a lot of help on that first line in Calgary. I can see him scoring within the 45-50-goal range, as well as tackling a total of 85-90 points. His plus/minus should creep back over 20, he should visit the box for over 80 minutes and he should undoubtedly have over five game-winning scores. This may even turn into Iginla's best season in the NHL.
Honorable Mention:
Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay Lightning- Martin St. Louis had himself an off-year as well last season, scoring only 31 goals and 61 points one year after leading the league with 94 total points. St. Louis is a spark plug, and he provides so much upside that I can't see him scoring that low in points again for 2006-2007. Though he's probably a fifth-to-seventh round pick for those that actually remembers he exists, St. Louis should produce more in the third round range in points. I think St. Louis should hit around 35-40 goals this season in addition to about 40-45 assists for 75-85 points on the year. He could be a real steal for some, also considering he is a strong game-winning goals player and can be in the plus/minus department depending on how well the Tampa Bay defense holds up.
Sleepers:
Milan Hejduk, Colorado Avalanche- Milan Hejduk had a horribly off-year last season, and perhaps that comes as a result of the loss of Peter Forsberg due to Philadelphia signing him. Hejduk is a real talent in the league, and should never see less than 70 points in a season, but yet he only had 58 last year. He had under 30 goals, under 40 assists and only two game-winning goals. Hejduk is a lot better than that, and fantasy owners have the chance to grab a player who should rebound quite nicely with around 75 points at the very least in the eighth round, which is mid-draft. That's not a typical "sleeper" round, but for somebody who should be taken in the top four rounds, I'll make the exception.
Be sure to come back next week where all of this fantasy talk culminates in a Top 50 Big Board (Yahoo! Style.)
Send all comments, questions, suggestions and telephone numbers from the ladies to br7qbsteelers@yahoo.com.
Until next week, you have just been Inside The Penalty Box!
VS.
