411's NHL Playoffs Conference Semifinals Roundtable
Posted by Dan Owen on 04.26.2007
The first round is over and the chase for the Stanley Cup is getting even hotter. Can the Vancouver Canucks rebound from nearly blowing a 3-1 series lead? And is there anyone better that Martin Brodeur.
Welcome back to 411mania's NHL Playoffs Roundtable coverage. Today, we're coming at you with our picks for the second round of action, but before we get started let's take a look at the participants:
First up this week is Ken Schmidt, whose 4-4 record in the last roundtable has him falling down a Chute.
Following him will be late-comer Matt Adamson, who is Destined for greatness after his above .500 5-3 record on the first roundtable.
Third is Sat, who missed last week's column because he was too busy trying to figure out what Road to take.
Fourth is veteran writer Neil Borenstein, who is serving time Inside The Penalty Box for being too good at predicting after going 7-1 on picks in the first round.
Our fifth writer went 6-2 in his predictions last time, and he answered the Call to be here. Who is he? Why, it's 411 newcomer Jason Chamberlain.
Rounding out this All-Star lineup is me, your host, Dan Owen. You can catch me every weekday in the News Section, dishing out a dose of the top news stories for the day.
Eastern Conference
(1)Buffalo Sabres vs. (6)New York Rangers
Ken Schmidt: The Rangers really impressed me in the first round of the playoffs. Considering the fact that I am a diehard Flyers fan I am natural predisposed to hating the Rangers, it's just a way of life. Even though the Rangers looked incredible and got offense out of people not named Jaromir in the first round we have to look at who they were up against. The Thrashers showed that they were first round frauds that were pretty easy to shut down, their inexperience showed through. The Sabres are a much different scenario. Most of the team this year were part of the squad that made it to the Eastern Conference Final last year. I expect this squad to make it at least that far this year as well, possibly even making an appearance in the cup finals. Drury and Briere are just to much as a one/two punch and they get contributions from their third and fourth lines to.
Winner: Buffalo Sabres in 6 games
Matt Adamson: The Buffalo Sabres aren't going to be nearly the pushover that Atlanta was in the first round. New York is going to have to play at least as good as they did in that series in order to eliminate the winners of the President's Trophy. If Nylander is able to play as well as he has thus far in the playoffs, they could pull it off. They have the team to do so. If Buffalo wants to win this they are probably going to have to play better hockey than they did in the first round. The facts are they are a better team, but Ryan Miller is unproven and the weak link to a team facing Shanahan, Nylander and Jagr. He's going to have to step up his game. It's going to be a fun series, and I think it's amazing how the winner of this series will really be the Kings of New York Hockey, especially if Buffalo advances. They will have beaten both The Isles and the Rangers to get to the Conference Finals. I think they have what it takes to do just that.
Winner: Buffalo Sabres in 5 games
Sat: I did not expect the Rangers to win against the Thrashers. The Rangers looked great, so they should give the Sabres a run for their money, but the Sabres have too much talent and depth and they will win this series in five or six.
Winner: Buffalo Sabres in 5 games
Neil Borenstein: If somebody told you around the All-Star break that the New York Rangers and the Buffalo Sabres would meet up in the Eastern Conference Semifinals of the NHL playoffs, not only would you be rolling on the floor laughing but you would also bet the house on the Sabres moving on without as much as breaking a sweat. That, however, is no longer the case. And while the Sabres are definitely the conference favorites, any MMA fan can tell you that ‘tis the season for underdogs to pull off the unexpected. It's easy for me to be considered bias here, but just look at how the regular season ended and how the first round series for each team played out, and tell me that the Rangers don't honestly have a chance to take out the President's Trophy winning Sabres. Offensively, I think both teams are pretty equal, with the Sabres having a slight advantage. Each side has weapons and is getting the most important contributions out of their most important weapons. For the Rangers, Michael Nylander has been a surprise goal scorer to go along with his playmaking skills this postseason, while Jaromir Jagr and Sean Avery are accumulating points as well. The Sabres, who are the regular season's best offensive team, are receiving important contributions from Daniel Briere, Chris Drury and Thomas Vanek. I think the Rangers are a bit better on the defensive end of their game, considering they are the hottest defensive team coming out of the first round. This isn't to say it's impossible for the Sabres to take over that part of the game, but the Rangers have shown through one round that they are strong in that area. They managed to essentially shutdown Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa, Slava Kozlov and Keith Tkachuk. That is no easy task. The Rangers' defensive advantage is especially true considering the goaltender match up. Now that the Dallas Stars have been eliminated, Henrik Lundqvist is the best goaltender in the playoffs (Marty Turco was giving him a run for his money.) A lot of people love Ryan Miller, but he's a bit overrated in my book. And I think when Lundqvist and Miller are standing on opposite sides of the ice, especially with how well Lundqvist is playing right now, the advantage in net goes to New York. And what I believe will be key to this series – psychology and physical play – is clearly in the corner of the Rangers based on Sean Avery being the league's best agitator. If he can get under the skin of players in Buffalo like he was able to do in the Atlanta series (which he has already started to try and do), then the Rangers may just have the series won before it even starts. The Rangers will be the underdogs because they are the lower seed and did not have as impressive of an overall regular season, but Buffalo cannot play the same emotionless hockey they did against the Islanders while the Rangers are riding on such a high right now.
Winner: New York Rangers in 7 games
Jason Chamberlain:The Sabres didn't surprise many people by making short work of the Islanders in round one. The Rangers may have survived quite a few people when they swept the third seeded Thrashers. Regardless of who was surprised, they've both made it to the semi finals and a series where the Sabres clearly have more to lose. Anything less than an appearance in the Cup finals will be considered a failure in Buffalo this year. They will be the favourites again in this series, but the Rangers won't mind as they have done very well in the underdog role. Still, this looks to be another series in which the immensely talented Sabres will simply outmatch their opponents. The Sabres finished almost 20 points ahead of the Rangers in the standings with 11 more wins, and they swept the season series. I give full credit to the Rangers for beating the Thrashers so consistently, but they face a far greater challenge here.
Winner: Buffalo Sabres in 6 games
Dan Owen: This should be a good series. The Rangers are probably underrated a bit by that ranking because they had a poor first part of the season. The last two months, they really heated up. This is in large part because of the play of Avery Chan, and if he can keep it up, the Rangers have a real chance of winning this thing. The Rangers are a little overmatched in the overall game. The Sabres are a little faster and have a little more offensive power. But not by a ton. If Jaromir Jagr and Michael Nylander can play strong, this could get really interesting, really fast. However, the Sabres superior speed just gets them over the hump for the victory.
Winner: Buffalo Sabres in 7 games
(2)New Jersey Devils vs. (4)Ottawa Senators
Ken Schmidt: Another team I counted out this post season that surprised me were the Sens. I love to see a team make Sid the Kid and Malkin look like punks and that's what they did. Hard checking and contributions from more than just star players were something that led the Sens past the youngest squad in hockey. However, the Devils are not the Penguins. They are even more hard checking and tight defensive that the Senators can be. If they could beat St. Louis and LeCavalier than they can beat Heatley and Alfreddson. Oh yeah, the Devils still have a guy named Marty Broduer.
Winner: New Jersey Devils in 7 games
Matt Adamson: This is certainly going to be the series to watch this round. Both teams are really strong and both have qualities that they opposite team dreads. With New Jersey coming off last round healthy, while Ottawa got bumped and bruised a bit, that gives them a little more that they would have had if they had met in the first round. New Jersey is going to have to play the same type of hockey on the defensive end that they did against Tampa as Ottawa is a very offensive team. The area that's going to be different is Emery is stronger in the crease than what they faced with Tampa. If Parise plays as well as he did against Tampa and the Gionta, Gomez, Elias trio plays the hockey they always play, I think New Jersey will come out ahead in this one. I sure hope they do, they're my team. GO DEVILS!
Winner: New Jersey Devils in 7 games
Sat: This should be an awesome series. Martin Brodeur had some problems in the first round, but he should be okay in this series. Brodeur definitely has the experience over Emery, but I think that Ottawa will win this series in seven because I believe that Ottawa's offense is better than New Jersey. Still this should be one hell of series.
Winner: Ottawa Senators in 7 games
Neil Borenstein: The New Jersey Devils had a bit of a scare in the first round against the Tampa Bay Lightning, but were able to pull the series out in six games by winning three in a row after being down 2-1 after Game 3. The Ottawa Senators, on the other hand, handled the young Pittsburgh Penguins quite easily in five games. While I doubt we'll see as much excitement in this Conference Quarterfinals series as we will in the Rangers vs. Sabres series, this one is still going to be fun to watch. For the Devils, Martin Brodeur cannot squeak by like he did against the Lightning. It cannot be overlooked that Brodeur was not at the top of his game against Tampa Bay. He let in 14 goals in the six-game series, letting in three goals in each of the first four games in the series. Brodeur needs to step up and be Brodeur again against the potentially better offensive force that Ottawa has to offer. Because even though the Devils scorers have come up big, most specifically Zach Parise, they are playing a better defensive team in the Senators than the Lightning were. And if the Senators are able to get past the Devils' defense and rock Brodeur in net, it's not going to be as easy for New Jersey to come back. I do believe, though, that Brodeur is going to come up big when it counts the most and not force the forwards in front of him to put up a ton of goals.
Winner: New Jersey Devils in 6 games
Jason Chamberlain: I should have known better than to bet against the Senators in round one. I figured they might continue their tradition of faltering in the playoffs, but most of those failures have come in later rounds against better teams (or the Maple Leafs, for some reason) than the young and unproven Penguins. That squad will have their playoff success in years to come I'm sure, but this group of Sens will face another summer of derision in our nation's capital if they don't get the job done this year. It's not going to be easy as the ever-contending Devils now stand in their way. The clubs finished with nearly identical standings in the regular season, and the Devils had the edge in the season series. You've got the defensive minded Devils on one side and the high flying Senators on the other, and if it comes down to goaltending, at first blush it wouldn't be a tough call. You've got the best of the best, Martin Brodeur, in the Devils net and the unproven-in-the-playoffs Ray Emery turning pucks away for the Sens. But Brodeur showed some cracks in his armour in the first round against the Lightning, and had he been on the top of his game the series probably wouldn't have lasted six games. By contrast, Emery was cool as a cucumber against the Pens and this series is his chance to cement his status by beating the best there is. It's tough to pick the Sens, because they do have that ever present choking potential.... history certainly isn't on their side. The Senators, in all their years of being a top tier team in the league have not been able to translate regular season success into playoff victories. The Devils, on the other hand, have three cups, and the aforementioned Brodeur. But the game is played on the ice, not in history books. My gut tells me the Senators may finally make some noise this year.
Winner: Ottawa Senators in 7 games
Dan Owen: This is another great series. The Devils have the single greatest weapon in the playoffs right now, and that is Martin Brodeur, the best goalie in the league. Not only will he stop nearly every shot in sight, but he has the kind of presence that intimidates the other team. The Senators have to be worried about their inexperienced net minder Ray Emery buckling under the pressure of facing off with a Brodeur. The key to the series for Ottawa will be to cut down on penalties, as the Devils are first in the playoffs right now on power play goals. The Devils need to keep their scoring balanced. They are a big defensive team, and at times their offense can look anemic. If they begin to rely on the same players over and over, it'll be tough to win.
Winner: New Jersey Devils in 6 games
Western Conference
(1)Detroit Red Wings vs. (5)San Jose Sharks
Ken Schmidt: I loved watching the Sharks/Predators series, it was exciting the whole way through. The Red Wings on the other hand made pretty short work of Mikka and his Flames, I was surprised how they handled them with ease, even if it was a six game series. This is the toughest series to pick in the second round but I know that the Red Wings team of today is not the Red Wings of old. They are beatable. I've never trusted Hasek in goal and now that he is a fossil I trust him even less. He makes incredible saves but easily loses his head and can let up some softies. I can't wait to see the Sharks make some havoc for him in front of the net and Jonathon Cheecho pick some corners on the goalie whose style can best be described as ‘flop goaltending.'
Winner: San Jose Sharks in 7 games
Matt Adamson: This is a tough choice because both teams seem to want it and have put forth incredible effort and passion thus far. San Jose has the offensive advantage in my mind as the trio of Thornton, Cheechoo and Guerin will be a force to be reckoned with for Hasek and the Detroit blue line. What Detroit has to their advantage is goaltending. Hasek is a tough guy to beat, as is the Detroit defense who really had the Flames number in their series with them. As awesome as Detroit has looked this year, San Jose has looks just as good. I figure this will be a long haul for San Jose.
Winner: San Jose Sharks in 7 games
Sat: This is the series to watch in the West. This is a very hard series to pick. The Red Wings have the experience in net, but Nabokov has also been very good. The offenses are also great for both teams. I am on the fence on this, so this is definitely going to a game seven. And because the Red Wings have home ice, I will take them in game seven.
Winner: Detroit Red Wings in 7 games
Neil Borenstein: These two teams just finished up two very physical battles with their opponents, and will have to regroup for an even tougher matchup against each other in the second round. The Detroit Red Wings early on in the first round looked like they were unbeatable against the Calgary Flames, taking the first two games of the series by outscoring the Flames 7-1 and outshooting them 97-35. But Calgary was able to pull through on its home ice and even the series at two games each. The Flames, however, were unable to hold off the Red Wings in Game 5 and Game 6, and were sent packing by a Red Wings team with the unique circumstance of being the underdog as the No. 1 seed. The San Jose Sharks, on the other hand, were able to take three games in a row after breaking even with the Nashville Predators through the first two games of the series. This series is really hard to predict a winner in because both teams have played tremendous hockey throughout the regular season and in the first round of the playoffs. I like the Sharks offensively, because for every Pavel Datsyuk to Henrik Zetterberg hook up we see, we're likely to see one or two more between Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo. I never bet against Thornton in an offensive battle, and so I'm giving San Jose that advantage. I think they are very even defensively, and had been even during the regular season when both teams were in the top five defensively in the entire league. I think Dominik Hasek has played better than Evgeni Nabokov, but even that goaltending matchup is pretty even since I don't think Hasek is far and away a better netminder than Nabokov. Both are talented with playoff experience and can come up in the clutch when their team needs them the most. While this will be a close series, I think the virtual defensive deadlock these two teams have will be broken by a better San Jose offense.
Winner: San Jose Sharks in 7 games
Jason Chamberlain: It's hard to believe it's been five years since the Red Wings have made it to the Stanley Cup final. Few teams have been as consistently talented as the Wings over the last decade, and they have the championships to prove it. The Sharks are less playoff proven, but they've already made a big statement this year. In their opening round series against Nashville I predicted the Predators to win, although I thought it would be close. The Sharks proved me wrong as they dealt pretty handily with the Predators in five games to move on to the second round. This is one of those series that comes down to a gut feeling for me. The Wings have had their Cup glory in recent years, and like the Senators in the East, I think the Sharks will announce their true arrival to Stanley Cup contention in the second round by beating a team that is known for going all the way.
Winner: San Jose Sharks in 7 games
Dan Owen: It must suck to be the Red Wings. They were teased by a Dallas Stars comeback only to wind up with San Jose instead. Once again, San Jose and Detroit are really well matched together. The big decider is going to be whether or not Detroit can stay physical. They did a good job against the Flames, and that will be the difference in the series. A lot of the weight falls on Todd Bertuzzi's shoulders, who will have to do a good job enforcing if the Wings are gonna win. The key player for the Sharks is Matt Thronton, who will need to show he can maintain a solid position on the team from the start of the playoffs to the end. I give the upset victory to San Jose because I think Detroit will have too many lapses in physical play.
Winner: San Jose Sharks in 7 games
(2)Anaheim Ducks vs. (3)Vancouver Canucks
Ken Schmidt: I'm really looking forward to this one. A duel of great goaltending and top defenses. The key to this series is a guy named Markus Naslund. I never thought I'd see the day when the Swedish captain struggled producing in the playoffs. The Sedin twins will score and Luongo will be Luongo. If Naslund can score four+ goals in this series, the Canucks will win, if he doesn't they will lose. I'm putting my faith in my boy from Sweden.
Winner: Vancouver Canucks in 6 games
Matt Adamson: Vancouver is going to have to really pick up their game if they are going to want to win this. The key to the victory here are the Sedin twins. When they produced during the Dallas series, the rest of the team produced as well. If Vancouver wants to win this series, the Sedin's are going to have to want it that much more. Luongo will no doubt have his work cut out for him as Anaheim is a more offensive minded team than Dallas but he did a tremendous job against Dallas despite little help from his team's offense. If Luongo plays like he has been playing all season and in the Dallas series, so long as Vancouver's offense produces goals, Vancouver will have no trouble with Anaheim. If the offense fails to produce, regardless of how great Luongo does, this series will belong to Anaheim. I'm banking on the Sedin's stepping it up coming off the big game 7 win.
Winners: Vancouver Canucks in 5 games
Sat: The Canucks were lucky to get past the Stars. The Ducks are going to run over the Canucks because the Ducks are well rested, while the Canucks are coming off a hard fought series victory over the Stars. The Ducks have one of the best d-lines in the league, so scoring will be very difficult for the Canucks. The only way I see the Canucks winning this series is if they can get an amazing series from Roberto Luongo
Winner: Anaheim Ducks in 5 games (leaning towards 6 games)
Neil Borenstein: Congratulations Vancouver – you just made it out of the most exciting and toughest series of the first round against the Dallas Stars in seven games, and now you get to carry your tired asses over to Anaheim to play a team that took out its first round opponent in five games and have been long-term favorites in the Western Conference throughout the entire season. I am honestly impressed with the fight the Vancouver Canucks put up in the first round against the Stars. The man that needed to pull through for them did, and Roberto Luongo was definitely the team's first round MVP. He is much better than both Ilya Bryzgalov and Jean-Sebastien Giguere, so Vancouver does win the goaltender matchup against the Anaheim Ducks. But, both teams are pretty even defensively overall, and showed that during the regular season when they were sixth and seventh in fewest goals allowed. Offensively, however, in two more games played than the Ducks, the Canucks were only able to muster one more goal. Marty Turco played his butt off and managed to secure three shutouts in the series, but Vancouver's lack of offense in really all but two games of the series could do them in against a much better team in Anaheim. Remember, the Canucks did struggle offensively for a good portion of the regular season as well. I think the same thing as last series holds true for this series for the Canucks. If Luongo can stand on his head every night, the Canucks have a glorious opportunity to move on. Unfortunately, I don't think he's going to be enough for the Canucks to move past Anaheim, who had a much easier first round series and are thus less worn out, are much better offensively, and have a good enough overall defense to hold down Vancouver. Don't count the Canucks out completely from this series, but don't look at their chances of moving on with much optimism, either.
Winner: Anaheim Ducks in 6 games
Jason Chamberlain: Vancouver made it through the first round thanks to one man; Roberto Luongo. Were it not for his heroics in net, the Stars would have moved on, because his team couldn't buy goals in the opening round. No matter how good Luongo is in this series, the Canucks need to improve their offensive output or they won't beat the Ducks. They did seem to break out in Game 7 against the Stars by potting four goals to move on, so they're heading into this series on the right note. This series comes down to goaltending and guts. Luongo looked like a man on a mission in the first round and he'll be on the top of his game once more, which for my money edges out the Ducks tandem of Giguere and Bryzgalov. And my Canadian gut won't let me pick against the Canucks, not in favour of Oiler deserter Chris Pronger's Ducks anyway!
Winner: Vancouver Canucks in 7 games
Dan Owen: If the Red Wings were feeling bad that Vancouver pulled out the series win over Dallas, then the Ducks should be happy. This will probably be the least exciting of the four playoff series, unfortunately. The Canucks were shut out in three of their seven games against Dallas, and that is not going to fly against the great defensive team that is the Anaheim Ducks. Markus Naslund is going to have to do something worthwhile in this series. I don't understand what happened to him. He was so good, and then all of a sudden he can't score anymore. Go figure. The Ducks are lucky that Ilya Bryzgalov was able to fill in so nicely for J.S. Giguere. Most teams would be crushed if a guy like Giguere went down. The deciding factor in this series will be the fatigue that Vancouver is suffering from. That was a tough series that was demeaning because of those 3 games with no scoring. They'll be crushed mentally and will come out flat in the first couple of games.
