The Oil Report 02.14.08
Posted by Rod Oracheski on 02.14.2008
Rod goes 3-for-3 on his predictions of the Oilers going 2-for-3 last week. This week love is in the air, but what about trades?
After a lot of feedback on last week's recap and predictions - and did I mention that I was 3-for-3 AND within a goal on each prediction? - I'm changing things up a bit this time around. There'll be less recapping of pointless things and more talking about what's important for this week's games - including recent injuries and returns, and current streaks/skids.
Notable Injuries
The Oilers now have three players out for the season, with word that Sheldon Souray has undergone season-ending shoulder surgery. He joins Shawn Horcoff (shoulder) and Raffi Torres (ACL) on the sidelines. Forward Ales Hemsky (wrist) will be in the lineup.
SEASON HISTORY
The Oilers and Sharks have matched up twice this season, with the first being Edmonton's home- and season-opener.
The Oilers won that game 3-2 in a shootout after overcoming an early lead and a late comeback. Two rookies picked up their first points in the NHL in this game, with Andrew Cogliano and Sam Gagner earning assists on Tom Gilbert's goal. Gilbert, also a rookie this year, had one goal and five assists in his 12 games with the team last season.
The second meeting of the two teams was January 29th, 2008, also in Edmonton. The Oilers started Mathieu Garon in this one, but the rest of the team took the night off. San Jose had the game's first six shots, though they didn't get their first goal until midway through the second period. Edmonton was outshot 39-13 over the course of the game, looking sluggish in their first home game after a five-game road swing.
Last Five
Over their last five games, the Oilers have gone 3-2 with wins over the Flames, Blackhawks, and Wild. Their 15 goals gives them a goals-per-game average of 3.0 over that span, while allowing 11 goals against.
The Sharks are 3-1-1 over the last five, with wins over the Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, and Predators, and an overtime loss to the Flames in their last outing. San Jose has scored 13 times in those five games, while allowing 13 goals against.
TRENDS: Oilers don't shoot: Edmonton has been outshot in both games by a combined 69-38. Starting slow, finishing soft: San Jose has scored three times in the first and last minute of a period. The Oilers have to start fast and finish strong - defensive lapses are killing them.
PREDICTION: 2-1 W
FUTURE MEETINGS:
March 16th - OILERS AT SHARKS - 6 p.m. start (MT)
SEASON HISTORY
The Oilers and Canucks have tangled five times this season, with Vancouver taking the first two games and Edmonton winning the last three.
The Canucks' wins came on back-to-back nights, with a 5-2 win in Edmonton on October 12th and 4-1 win in Vancouver the following night. Edmonton outshot Vancouver both nights (30-19 and 28-22) but were unable to pick up even a single point. Ouch.
Edmonton started Garon against the Canucks for the first time in their next matchup, with Garon picking up the shutout in a 1-0 shootout win. Garon made several key saves over the course of the game, with the Oilers outshot 29-19, and Hemsky scoring the shootout winner (video at right).
The Oilers kept rolling with the shootout, taking the next two meetings with shootout winners. Horcoff had the winner in the 5-4 final, November 20th, while Fernando Pisani had the winner in the 2-1 final, December 15. Garon had the start in both games.
Last Five
The Canucks have only won one of their last five games in regulation, beating the Thrashers by a 2-1 final. They've won once in a shootout, dropping the Blackhawks by a 3-2 final, and lost twice in the shootout and once in regulation.
Vancouver has scored 11 goals during regulation play in their last five, while allowing 14 goals against.
TRENDS: First goal wins: The team scoring first has won 4/5 games. The fifth was blanked through regulation. Injuries hurt: Half of the Oilers goals in the series (five of the 10 scored) have come from players who are now out for the season. Garon starts FTW: Garon started three of the five games between the two teams - the Oilers won all three.
SEASON HISTORY
The two teams have met twice this season, with Nashville taking the two points each time.
Edmonton couldn't buy a goal in their first meeting, outshooting Nashville by a 31-23 final in the 4-1 loss, November 2. Hemsky had the Oilers only goal, while Nashville poured in three third-period goals to take the win. The Oilers had similar problems containing Nashville's offense in their 5-2 loss, January 3rd, with the Predators holding a 3-1 lead after the first period.
Last Five
The Predators are 3-1-1 over their last five, with wins over the Hurricanes, Coyotes, and Red Wings. They dropped one in overtime to the Lightning, and were stopped in regulation by the Sharks. Nashville has scored 15 goals in their last five games, while allowing 11 goals against.
Dropping the Red Wings is bound to add some momentum to the Predators lineup, but with three games before they face the Oilers, it's unclear if that momentum will carry through the week.
TRENDS: First goal wins: The Predators scored first in both games. Garon's no guarantee: Garon has gotten the start in both losses. He might get a rest in this one.
Looking back at this week's games really brought to light the oddball decisions made by Oilers management. In the 5-2 loss to the Canucks, for example, they did a lot of line juggling as MacTavish tried to find combinations that would work.
The line of J-F Jacques, Jarret Stoll, and Raffi Torres proved effective, generating a lot of chances. Jacques was, of course, therefore sent down after the game, with Zack Stortini and Rob Schremp recalled.
Now remember that this is a team that's just suffered its third straight loss and struggled to find goals.
Schremp and Hemsky looked good the following night, despite it being a 4-1 loss, creating several scoring chances, including a glorious chance robbed by Luongo's glove hand.
Schremp had 10:42 on the ice, with two shots, one missed shot, and one giveaway. Stortini, in 7:48 on the ice, blocked a shot, but took none, and took penalties for fighting and charging.
The next game, Schremp saw the ice just six times, for 3:12 of icetime. He had one shot and one attempt blocked. Stortini had 14 shifts for 9:19, one takeaway and one blocked shot.
Schremp was sent down after the game. Stortini held on, finally getting his first point a month later in November 28th's 4-2 loss to the Avalanche. He wouldn't score his first goal until January 3rd, 2008.
When your team is looking for offensive production, does it really make sense to keep the guy who doesn't have an offensive game to speak of?
It's not like Zach "Huggy Bear" Stortini brings an intimidating physical presence, after all. I mean he was beaten, and beaten badly, by Owen Nolan in a fight earlier this season.
Don't get me wrong, the bad man from Belfast is a tough son of a bitch, but he's 35 years old. His best fights were in 1996. He was 24 at the time, Stortini was TEN. YEARS. OLD.
I've heard Stortini called everything from an enforcer to an agitator, but let's get it out of the way right now - he's not an enforcer and never will be. He doesn't intimidate the other team at all, as Regehr showed with his manhandling of Hemsky time after time in recent games.
Stortini might be a passable agitator, he's got the kind of face that's a fist magnet, but there are far better choices - even within the Oilers farm system - for that role. Guys who can keep up with the play and know which end the opposing net is in.
And when your team is suffering for goals, Huggy Bear sure as hell ain't no Rob Schremp.
