Inside The Penalty Box 02.25.08: The 2008 NHL Trade Deadline

Posted by Neil Borenstein on 02.25.2008

We’re 39 hours away from the dead-last moment teams across the league can make that last ditch effort to build a team for Stanley Cup competition. In this week’s edition of Inside The Penalty Box, Neil Borenstein takes a look at the top names on the market and gives his predictions on where they will end up by 3 p.m. on Tuesday!

ne of the most entertaining times to be an NHL fan is finally upon us for the 2007-08 season. In about 39 hours, the trade deadline will be in full effect. Teams that need to make those last minute deals for a push to the playoffs must do so by 3 p.m. tomorrow afternoon, or they're stuck with what they already have.

The trade deadline, draft day and the opening of free agency are three of my favorite days when it comes to the NHL. I love hockey and absolutely no sport in the world compares to it. Seeing the action on the ice is like nothing else. And the only thing better than hockey itself is playoff hockey, when every aspect of the games becomes more intensified, and more critical.

But as a fan, there's something about player transactions that puts those three previously mentioned events on a different plateau of interest. With draft day, it's a time to see the crop of young, new talent make their first of hopefully many long-lasting impressions. Free agency is a chance to catch veteran players who are entering their prime seek new opportunities. And deadline day provides teams one last shot at forming a roster both front office personnel and fans can be confident are capable of delivering a Stanley Cup Championship.

Of course, I'd be hard-pressed to consider any other topic for this week's edition of Inside The Penalty Box than the trade deadline, and the potential blockbusters we're about to see take place over the next day and a half.

Before we get to that part of the program, though, lets take a gander at some feedback I received over the past week.

Feedback …

This first comment pertains to last week's column - No-Trade Clauses Hindering Deadline Deals:

I totally disagree. Players should have every right to decide where they play, ie. work. I think the idea of trades, while fun for us fans to discuss and fantasize about, is a horrible concept.

It's like allowing McDonalds the right to trade their employees to KFC or Bell Canada trading theirs to Rogers Cable. IMO, trades should only be allowed if all parties – including the players – okay it. I don't think the amount of money should make players nothing more than an ornament who have no say where they'll hang their jersey. Why should a player whose about to be traded really care if he's possibly hurting the team who want to trash him by kicking him to the curb. People talk about player selfishness; but the real selfishness comes from teams, and ‘fans' who want players to be robots who dance for their amusement. It's disgusting!

- Volourn

Well, Volourn, tell me how you really feel!

I agree on your basic concept that it is somewhat cold in the way trades go down. However, players need to understand that trades aren't merely a part of fan amusement. They are legitimate measures for teams to improve, whether it is immediate or for the future. The NHL, like all sports leagues, is a business. And part of that business is that players need to be open to moving. Of course, the no-trade clause puts a hitch into that aspect of the game. But trades are a part of the business, and have been forever. And part of the reason athletes make so much money is because of the fact that they might have to up and move at a moment's notice. That inconvenience, you might say, is part of the millions these guys see on a yearly basis – at least in my opinion.

So no, it's not "disgusting." It's a natural part of the game, for improvement in one way or another, that I don't necessarily feel players should have the right to block. Now, ask me tomorrow when the Rangers pull of some crazy trade sending Jaromir Jagr to the Phoenix Coyotes, and I might have a different opinion. But right now, the no-trade clause is just a suddenly overused and selfishly-utilized tool by players to prevent a team from what could be in the player's and team's best interest.

Hi Neil,

I've been reading your column on 411mania for a while now and I'd like first of all to congratulate you for your great writing, insight and passion.

Since I know you're a Rangers fan, I was wondering if you had watched the game on Tuesday (Feb. 19) against the Habs and if so, how you felt about it. As a Habs fan, I was obviously yelling and swearing at the tv in the first half and then when the goals started to come in I began to feel ecstatic. What were your thoughts on the Habs unbelievable rise?

I haven't followed the Rangers' season at all and I was also wondering how such a collapse could affect this team in the long run? I can tell your from the Canadiens' perspective that this win gives us an amazing boost of confidence similar as the one we've had from the amazing comeback victory against Martin Brodeur's Devils in January (Trailing 1-3 after the second, then winning it 4-3 in regulation against a team we hadn't beaten in 4 years).

Do you think the Rangers have enough leadership and team spirit to ensure this loss won't break their confidence? How did Renny react to all this? Can Jagr stand up?

All of this to ask if you think this is only a bump in the road for the playoffs or the beginning of the end for the 2007-08 Rangers.

Can't wait to hear more of your thoughts on the trade deadline (which is probably the topic of your next Penalty box),

Sincerely,

Pierre-Paul, Québec, Canada

First, thanks for the kind words, Pierre-Paul. Your readership and contribution is always appreciated.

The game between the Rangers and Canadiens on Feb. 19 was essentially the reversal of what happened the previous time these two teams played, just with more goals scored. On Feb. 3, the Canadiens went up by three goals in front of their home crowd. But the Rangers came back with five unanswered goals to take the victory in regulation time.

So, the Canadiens' victory on Tuesday was both historic from a franchise perspective and a bit of revenge for the previous matchup between the two clubs. And that's an incredible boost for a Habs team that, quite frankly, is exceeding expectations. While the Canadiens couldn't keep the momentum going, losing 5-4 in their next game against the Pittsburgh Penguins and then getting shutout by the Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal still has a really good thing going this season.

A lot of the Habs' success comes from an offense that ranks fourth in goals scored right now. Alexei Kovalev has been an unsung leader on offense this year. And Andrei Markov hasn't allowed the Canadiens to miss Sheldon Souray all that much by stepping in as an offensive force from the blue line, including on the power play. The Canadiens have had some decent play in goal, as well, where Cristobal Huet remains a pretty underrated netminder for what he offers. And Carey Price has contributed well as a rookie backup. The Canadiens will definitely make the playoffs if they continue to get production from the players that have gotten them this far and don't allow recent losses to resonate too much in their memory. How deep they will go is another story, as I'm not sure they can go very far once the postseason begins. But they should at least see some hockey action in the playoffs.

As far as the Rangers are concerned, the game was really a minor bump in the road. They have really been a good third period club this year, and one bad game isn't going to change that. Tom Renney, in addition to his players, were upset about the loss. But they also understood that it's just one game, where they did at least squeak out a point. Moving forward was the most important thing. And that happened Saturday night against the Buffalo Sabres, when the Rangers took a 4-3 victory thanks to a Sean Avery game-winner with 5:05 remaining in the third period. That was furthered when they shut out the Florida Panthers on Sunday, 5-0.

So, the Rangers weren't effected all that much from the loss. They're still picking up important wins and even more important points to remain in the playoff picture. The leadership is there from several different players, probably most notably Chris Drury. Jaromir Jagr is heating up, which I always knew would happen and am thankful that this will hopefully pull his name completely out of trade rumors. Youngsters like Brandon Dubinsky and Nigel Dawes are making their presences felt. And, of course, Sean Avery is providing both agitation and an ever-impressive offense game that makes him crucial to the Rangers' success.

Thanks against for the feeback, fellas, and everybody keep ‘em coming!

The Next 39 HoursThe Trade Deadline Is Upon Us

Photo Credit: Yahoo! SportsDan Boyle's offensive prowess from the blue line, in addition to his potential unrestricted status this offseason, makes him a hot commodity at the deadline.

As is normally the case around trade deadline time, many big name players are floating around the market. Only a fraction of these players are likely to be dealt. But many big moves do occur in this critical two-day window we're now in. So, here are some of the players being dangled in front of the rest of the league.

Brad Richards, Center – Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning have a lot of high-priced players on their roster. They also sit 29th in the entire NHL this season with only 57 points and 25 wins in 62 games. With 20 games left and a very competitive Eastern Conference race taking place, it's going to take a miracle for the Lightning to make the playoffs. And thus, they become sellers.

But they are sellers of a different proportion, because they aren't going to trade players just for the sake of it with your typical player, prospect and No. 1 pick package in the return. Granted, that might be what Tampa Bay receives. But what the team is really interested in is clearing some cap space so they can sign some players currently on the roster, and then go after a No. 1 goalie they so highly covet – and haven't had since Nikolai Khabibulin backstopped the Lightning to the Stanley Cup in 2004.

Brad Richards is the highest paid player on the Lightning. He is in the second year of a $39 million, five-year contract he signed in the summer of 2006 and will earn $7.8 million in each of the next three seasons. That's a hefty sum to pay a player on a team that's second-to-last in the league and possesses greater needs than a playmaking center. That makes Richards very expendable.

I'm sure Lightning general manager Jay Feaster doesn't really want to trade Richards, as he's still a solid player in the league. Granted, Richards has lost a step over the past few years since the NHL's first year back from the lockout in 2005-06. But the man can still setup his fair share of goals, score 20-25 of his own and show some prowess in the two-way play department.

But the Lightning already have a top center in Vincent Lecavalier, whose current contract comes to an end following next season. Reports already have the Lightning ready to work aggressively this summer on a long-term extension for Lecavalier that will keep the 1998 first overall draft selection in Tampa Bay for the rest of his career. They also want to work on re-signing defenseman Dan Boyle, who is eligible for unrestricted free agency this summer. Boyle will command $6-7 million per season in a free agent deal if he hits the market, and I highly doubt it will cost the Lightning much less to keep him around. Plus, they're still very intent, and rightfully so, on acquiring a bona fide No. 1 goaltender. There's no room for a $7.8 million player who is not producing like he used to, and quite honestly isn't a necessity on a currently last place roster.

Where Richards lacks value in Tampa Bay, he has plenty of on another team. Darren Dreger of The Sports Network in Canada reported Sunday that the Lightning have received interest from the Vancouver Canucks, Dallas Stars and Columbus Blue Jackets, among others, for Richards' services.

The one team out of those three that immediately intrigues me is Columbus. Just imagining Richards centering a line with one of the best pure goal scorers in the NHL, Rich Nash, is pretty spectacular. If those two could find a consistent chemistry on the ice, they'd be one of the premier combinations in the NHL. Normally, the Blue Jackets would be a basement team in the Western Conference by now and a move of this magnitude wouldn't even be on the radar. But with 67 points, Columbus is only five points out of the last place spot. And since defensively they are pretty sound, an upgrade on offense is exactly what this team needs to make that big push with 18 games remaining. A top line center is exactly what they need.

The Canucks would get a little more depth at center with the acquisition of Richards. Past Henrik Sedin, they don't exactly have that dynamic playmaker, especially with Brendan Morrison rehabbing from wrist surgery. If they are able to acquire Richards, the Canucks could probably move up in the standings from the seventh seed they posses right now. As far as the Stars are concerned, I don't really see the need for them to acquire Richards. They have two top centers in Mike Modano and Mike Riberio, and are second place in the conference with 83 points. But if they aren't required to give up players that will disrupt the team's chemistry, it could make them a hell of a lot more formidable, though I do tend to wonder if Richards will really fit in well with the Stars.

At this point, the only party holding up Richards being moved is Richards himself. He can block a trade and will need to weigh his options over the next few days to determine if that's a move he wants to make. In the end, I think he will be traded, if for no other reason than ownership wants his contract off the books. I doubt the most intriguing destination will be where he ends up – Columbus, but I could see the Canucks pulling something off to land him.

ITPB Prediction: Gets Traded – Vancouver Canucks

Brian Campbell, Defenseman – Buffalo Sabres

Learning from past mistakes, the Buffalo Sabres are determined to not lose another top-talent player for absolutely nothing in free agency. Free agency took both Daniel Briere and Chris Drury away from the defending President's Trophy winning Sabres. And they'll be damned if they're going to allow another asset to walk away without something coming back to Buffalo.

Unfortunately, the surging Sabres are a playoff-contending team right now. Becoming a seller is not an ideal option for the current eighth-place squad in the Eastern Conference. And that's why they are stuck with the decision on whether to hold onto defenseman Brian Campbell and risk having a repeat of last offseason, or deal him prior to the deadline for a nice package including players, prospects and picks.

Signing Campbell prior to 3 p.m. tomorrow seems very unlikely. The Sabres' latest offer to Campbell was worth a reported $6 million per season over three years ($18 million.) Though a decent offer from the Sabres, Campbell is going to fetch a bit more than that financially and many more years on the free agent market. The only other option for keeping Campbell is to remain optimistic that a deal can be reach in some way prior to the opening of free agency on July 1.

Photo Credit: Yahoo! Sports/Getty ImagesWithout a contract for the potential unrestricted free agent, the Buffalo Sabres may be forced to trade Brian Campbell.

But the Sabres run into a problem whether they attempt to sign him now or over the summer. Regardless of when a deal goes down, they face a tough financial situation under the salary cap. Buffalo is approximately $6 million under the $50.3 million cap. And even though it will probably rise a couple of million dollars by next year, the Sabres don't really have a lot of flexibility to add another $6-7 million per season contract onto their roster for the long haul. This becomes especially apparent when you realize that Ryan Miller's contract comes to an end following next season. Maxim Afinogenov, Tim Connolly and Ales Kotalik fall into the same boat as Miller.

With this dilemma in hand, I think the Sabres have to face reality. The hope of signing Campbell, which is a mutual hope held by the defenseman, is just not the most feasible considering the team's payroll and resistance to have a repeat from last year. A trade has to go down. It might be sacrificing a Cup run this year. But lets be honest, the Sabres are no longer a favorite to go all the way.

As usual, there are plenty of suitors for a solid two-way, puck-moving, physical defenseman. The San Jose Sharks, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Ottawa Senators, New Jersey Devils and Boston Bruins are just some of the teams rumored to have an interest in Campbell. The Chicago Blackhawks are actually very interested in acquiring Campbell, but their playoff chances are pretty slim and they would have a better shot of grabbing him this summer as a free agent.

Personally, Campbell is the only player I want to see the Rangers go after by 3 p.m. tomorrow. And thus, I hope they land him. But all of these teams have the ability to offer up quality packages in return for this impact defender.

The Sharks seem like the best candidate since they are dangling Patrick Marleau, who might be having a down year but still has that top center potential that was lost by the Sabres when both Briere and Drury left over the summer. Marleau will see $6.3 million in each of the next two seasons, meaning he'll be making a bit less than what Campbell is going to command and is only a short-term commitment.

ITPB Prediction: Gets Traded – San Jose Sharks

Marian Hossa, Right Wing – Atlanta Thrashers

Marian Hossa is another of those free agent-eligible players come July 1 that no team wants to lose without getting something in return. A lack of progress between the Atlanta Thrashers and Hossa in agreeing to a new contract makes it all but certain that the All-Star right wing will don a new jersey following the deadline.

I can understand the Thrashers' inability to sign Hossa. Much like the Sabres with Campbell, the team sits $6 million under the current cap and have other players that need new deals over the next few years. To sign one player, albeit it one of their best, at the risk of not being able to hold onto the depth players is a risky move. The Thrashers take a horrendous step back from the progress they made last year with their first postseason appearance in franchise history if Hossa is dealt. But only so much can be offered to Hossa if the Thrashers are going to reasonably hand out offers to the other players that need new deals, as well.

In such a situation, the Thrashers have to trade Hossa. Unlike the Sabres, the Thrashers really don't stand a shot at making the playoffs. Nothing is impossible, of course. But the highly competitive East would need to go into a funk for that to happen. With the Thrashers hopes of making the playoffs as slim as the team's chances of signing Hossa, dealing him for something valuable is the only option.

The amount of teams that would love to bring Hossa in are numerous. At least 10 teams have shown an interest in acquiring Hossa, including the Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Ottawa Senators, New York Rangers, Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks. I'll toss the Ducks and Rangers clear out of this mix because neither team really needs Hossa and have greater needs to fill with the limited cap space they have remaining.

The Press of Montreal reported that gloves were ordered for Hossa in Habs colors, further stating that negotiations between the Candiens and Thrashers are pretty serious. If the Canadiens are going to land Hossa, they will probably have to part with Michael Ryder. Ryder is having a bit of a down year, but he is also a quality power play forward and is capable of scoring 30 goals in a season. Based on that, the Habs might still need to give up a first round pick, but could probably give up a lesser prospect(s) in the package deal.

The Sharks are reportedly willing to give up Marleau or Jonathan Cheechoo, a prospect and a pick for Hossa. This is a no-brainer for me if the Thrashers can pull this deal off. If the Thrashers could land Marleau, then I think the deal is even more of a no-brainer, as they aren't exactly the deepest team at center. Cheechoo is a bit of a risk, as a lot of his goal-scoring prowess stems from being on a line with Joe Thornton. And, he's not even playing to his potential this year while on a line with Thornton. But I would still take either in a split second.

The Bruins are also in this mix, and might be willing to part with Glen Murray. I think if Murray is the highlight of the Bruins' package, though, that's a pretty sorry offer. He is an injury risk at this stage in his career and his offensive production suffers as a result. And at $4.15 million, he's really not worth it.

What the Devils or Senators are willing to part with is unknown. I doubt the Devils will be willing to part with a player on the level of Murray, Cheechoo, Marleau or Ryder, unless they decide to deal Brian Gionta (which I actually did read somewhere they might be willing to do, though I highly doubt it will happen.) The Senators definitely have some pieces that could intrigue the Thrashers, though I'm not sure they're going to be as good as anything the Habs, Sharks or Bruins could offer.

Even though I think it's pretty academic at this point that Hossa is being traded, where exactly he will go is not so easy to determine. But I do believe that things between the Canadiens and Thrashers are serious, and Montreal has enough intriguing pieces to give back to the Thrashers for a deal to make sense both ways.

ITPB Prediction: Gets Traded – Montreal Canadiens

Dan Boyle, Defenseman – Tampa Bay Lightning

Dan Boyle sits in a similar boat as Brian Campbell from the standpoint that there are a ton of teams interested in acquiring a good puck-moving defenseman. He's also like Brad Richards in that he's a Lightning player, except that Boyle is set to make a ton of money while Richards is already earning it.

Boyle's status hinges very much on what happens to Richards. If Richards is dealt, then I think the Lightning will use that extra $7.8 million in cap space to sign Boyle to a long-term deal in the $6.5-7 million range. If the Lightning can't unload Richards, though, Boyle will be a trade deadline mover because the team cannot hold onto both players at this juncture.

Most of the same teams interested in trading for Campbell are also interested in Boyle, except for the fact that I think most of them would actually rather obtain Boyle. I would prefer Campbell, but either one will really enhance a team's blue line presence. The Philadelphia Flyers seem to be a leading team of interest ever since Tomas Kaberle decided he didn't want to leave Toronto. The Penguins, Rangers, Sharks, Devils and Senators are also in the mix to grab Boyle.

If Boyle does go somewhere, I think the Flyers would be determined enough to make the greatest offer. And since general manager Paul Holmgren can do some very backhanded, Lou Lamoriello-type maneuvering with injured players, according to The Courier Post, based on injuries to Simon Gagne and Derian Hatcher, it's possible for the Flyers to place those two players on the long-term injury list, use the $7.8 million freed up from that on transactions and then get Gagne and Hatcher back for the playoffs without breaking any rules in the collective bargaining agreement. I'm not sure how that's legal under the CBA, but it is according to the paper. And if this is the case, it just gives Holmgren more incentive to be in hot pursuit of not only a defenseman of Boyle's caliber, but a winger as well to help replace the scoring of Gagne.

The Rangers are also eyeing Boyle quite heavily. In fact, The New York Post has stated that the Rangers are a more likely destination for Boyle since he would rather end up in New York. And with a no-trade clause, Boyle does have some say in where he ends up if he is traded.

However, when it's all said and done, and the 3 p.m. deadline has past, I fully except Boyle to have a bolt on the front of his jersey and a busy agent working on a new deal.

ITPB Prediction: Doesn't Get Traded

Some Of The Rest

Alex Tanguay, Left Wing – Calgary Flames: Alex Tanguay is opposed to moving to another team, and has the right to veto a deal with his no-trade clause. But his name has come up in two fairly big deals over the past few months. One brings Michael Ryder from Montreal, and the other reunites Olli Jokinen of the Panthers with Mike Keenan. Tanguay is having a decent year, though it's not up to par with what he's done in the past and stretches of games without points does hurt his value. A change of scenery could help, though I don't think it's drastically necessary. The Flames may try to send him packing, especially if they can grab Jokinen. But I don't think he'll accept a deal to Florida, or any other team for that matter. Tanguay will remain with the Flames.

Olli Jokinen, Center – Florida Panthers: Outside of the Flames, the Stars have also shown an interest in Jokinen. As with Richards, I don't know why Dallas is interested since they don't need another center. But they're interested. Jokinen seems to be a constant subject of trade rumors, and has been for many years. This year, the Jokinen-to-Calgary trade seems legitimate, but with Tanguay, it's unlikely to happen. I doubt Tanguay wants to end up with the Panthers. So another year goes by, but Jokinen will stay in Florida.

Sergei Fedorov, Center – Columbus Blue Jackets: Sergei Fedorov is only going to be dealt if the Blue Jackets believe they can't make the playoffs. If they didn't think they could make the playoffs, I doubt they would be after Brad Richards. So, put two and two together, and Fedorov isn't going anywhere. If they were going to deal Fedorov, it would probably be to the Central Division rival Detroit Red Wings. But I doubt that's going to happen, as there's still a shot for Columbus to make its first postseason appearance.

Patrick Marleau, Center – San Jose Sharks: Patrick Marleau has already been brought up in this column as a potential chip in trades for Marian Hossa or Brian Campbell. I think the Sharks are better off holding onto Marleau. His production might be off now, but he's going to be a valuable player come playoff time. Regardless, he's being dangled based on his underachievement this season. And if a deal can be worked out for Campbell, I have to think Buffalo would force the Sharks to include Marleau in the package. I think he will end up with the Sabres.

John-Michael Liles, Defenseman – Colorado Avalanche: The name John-Michael Liles tends to get tossed under the rest of this year's trade class because he's not quite up to par with the Campbell's and Boyle's of the NHL. He's not that far off, though, and teams shouldn't forget about him. I doubt the Avalanche are jumping at the idea of trading Liles, because he is their best defenseman and could use him for that playoff push now that the rest of the team is getting healthy. But if a deal comes through that they can't pass up, it might be too good to reject, as Liles is headed toward free agency this summer. I think he remains in Colorado, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Devils, Flyers or Senators came out of the nowhere to snatch him up.

Brad Stuart, Defenseman – Los Angeles Kings: Rob Blake might not want to move from Los Angeles, but Brad Stuart doesn't have any say. He's on the market of a Kings team going nowhere this season, and they can get a decent package in return for his services. Plus, Stuart is on a one-year deal and I doubt Los Angeles is going to attempt to re-sign him for next season. He's going to be a player looked at for those teams that either can't land Campbell or Boyle, or can't afford to give up the package necessary for either of those players. I think he ends up with the Devils.

Marek Malik, Defenseman – New York Rangers: Despite a good game against the Panthers on Sunday, this Rangers fan is not fooled. Marek Malik still needs to go, even if the Rangers are down a defenseman with the injury to Paul Mara. There were talks that the Rangers were looking into acquiring Martin Rucinsky from the St. Louis Blues for the fourth time in exchange for Malik, but Glen Sather requires a top-four defenseman come back to New York in the return. If Barrett Jackman becomes that defenseman, I love the deal. Otherwise, Rucinsky is not worth wasting Malik on, as he can be used in bigger and better deals. Unfortunately, I think the Rangers will hold onto Malik. But it would be nice to see the soon-to-be-free agent go.

Dwayne Roloson, Goaltender – Edmonton Oilers: With Mathieu Garon taking the No. 1 duties, and Dwayne Roloson still feeling he has starting stuff at 38 years old, a move is likely. I have no idea who would want Roloson since I don't think he has anything left. But if a team needs a veteran backup, I guess that's where Roloson might be an okay option. Maybe the Sharks take a run at him, just in case something happens to Evgeni Nabokov.

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Until next week, you have just been Inside The Penalty Box!

~ Neil Borenstein