Inside The Penalty Box 05.19.08: On The Verge Of A Penguins Vs. Red Wings Final

Posted by Neil Borenstein on 05.19.2008

The Pittsburgh Penguins have already reserved their spot and pending a major collapse, the Detroit Red Wings should punch their ticket soon enough. In this week’s return edition of Inside The Penalty Box, Neil Borenstein takes a look at the likely 2008 Stanley Cup Final between the Baby Pens and the boys from “Hockeytown”!

Welcome one and all to the return of Inside The Penalty Box. It's been a while since I've graced these web pages with my presence. I had to take a short hiatus to concentrate on my graduate school work. All of the major work is basically wrapped up, i.e., a thesis paper and comprehensive exam. So I have more time on my plate to bring this column and MLB Fastball back to 411mania. I'm still five credits away from that good ‘ol M.A. But two cupcake courses over the summer should have me completing this program by the end of July – at which point I'm hoping somebody is crazy enough to actually give me a job.

Enough of my life story, though. We're back and it's time to talk some hockey. Since we last met, a lot has happened in the National Hockey League. Specifically, we've been through almost three entire playoff series and are just about ready to get the puck dropped on the 2008 Stanley Cup Finals.

On The Verge Of A Stanley Cup FinalPittsburgh Penguins vs. Detroit Red Wings Looks Likely

Photo Credit: Yahoo! Sports/Getty ImagesSidney Crosby, who leads the NHL with 21 postseason points, has reached the Stanley Cup Finals in only his third season. It took Wayne Gretzky fours years to make the finals and Mario Lemieux reached in his seventh.

Since the National Hockey League has returned from the lockout of 2004-05, it has faced tremendous Stanley Cup Finals on paper that never translated to ratings. Apparently, interest from the casuals and non-fans wasn't peaked by a Carolina Hurricanes vs. Edmonton Oilers final in 2006 and an Anaheim Ducks vs. Ottawa Senators final last year. This year could do the trick, as all signs point to a likely 2008 Stanley Cup Final between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings.

The Penguins have already punched their ticket to this final stanza of the chase to the Cup. By defeating the Philadelphia Flyers in Sunday afternoon's Game 5 affair with an emphatic 6-0 final score, Pittsburgh continued a run hardly expected from such a young team with several defensive question marks. But the five-game elimination of their Pennsylvania rivals sends just one more message on top of a first round sweep of the Ottawa Senators and five-game defeat of the New York Rangers in the Conference Semifinals. The message is that the Penguins are for real, even if it's earlier than many expected.

While Pittsburgh is tied for second with Detroit in points this postseason (51) in one fewer game played, the team is more than an offensive juggernaut. Its offensive prowess surely cannot be overlooked. It is, after all, key to the Penguins' success. Sidney Crosby leads the way with a playoff best 21 points. He is followed by Evgeni Malkin (19 points), Marian Hossa (19 points), Ryan Malone (15 points), Sergei Gonchar (11 points) and Petr Sykora (eight points.) There is a lot of scoring in Pittsburgh and that must be recognized.

But the Penguins are no longer one dimensional. Last season, it was so easy to squash the Penguins. Play them hard with a tough, defensive game and the Penguins will fold. That's what made it so easy for the Senators to defeat them in five games during last year's Conference Quarterfinals. They took advantage of the Penguins' lack of maturity and defense.

Now Pittsburgh backs up its offensive dominance with a solid all-around game. Its defense is much better. You can expect to face the likes of Hal Gill and Brooks Orpik whenever you enter the Penguins' defensive zone. If you get past them, a much-improved Marc-Andre Fleury, who leads the NHL with a .935 save percentage this postseason, will be in your way. You can't take advantage of the Penguins physically. If you try, Georges Laraque and/or Jarkko Ruutu will get in your face, as will Malone if need be. On special teams, the Penguins offer more than an intimidating power play. Jordan Staal's continued improvement makes their penalty kill all that more dangerous, as well.

It's hard to believe that the Penguins could mature from just a good offensive team to perhaps one of the best all-around squads in just one season. But they did. In just one year, this team stepped up its game and became legitimate competitors that are just four wins away from winning a Stanley Cup – something the Penguins haven't done since the days of Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr in 1992.

A lot of credit really needs to go to guys like Crosby, Malkin, Staal and Fleury getting better. These are the four studs Pittsburgh was able to draft after playing deplorable hockey for so many years. Crosby and Malkin are offensive forces, Staal scores too in addition to being a good penalty killer and Fleury might just be starting to become a franchise netminder (though I still question his ability to remain consistent going into next year.)

Let's also give general manager Ray Shero credit, though. Who would have though Sykora would make such a tremendous line mate for Malkin? Who would have thought trading for Gill would have made such a defensive difference (besides me)? And who would have believed giving up a ton of talent at the deadline for a potential rental in Hossa, labeled a choker in the playoffs, would have paid off so well? The core talent in Pittsburgh is imperative to the Penguins' success. But the Penguins finally pulled off some front office maneuvers that contradicted the conservative philosophy this team has rolled by since Lemieux started crying bloody murder with the NHL's economics.

The Penguins have lost only two games thus far this postseason, and have looked dynamic in all but those two games. That leaves them with plenty of momentum and energy going into the Stanley Cup Finals, where they will square off with either the Dallas Stars or the Red Wings.

Despite losing two straight and allowing the Stars to get back into the Western Conference Finals series, the Red Wings remain my, and probably still the consensus, favorite to win the West. Granted, I am rooting for the Stars because I think Marty Turco deserves a Cup and I'm always in favor of good things happening to Mike Modano. But I doubt Dallas will pull through with the four-game miracle comeback.

Photo Credit: Yahoo! Sports/Getty ImagesChris Osgood's veteran presence in between the pipes since taking over for Dominik Hasek in the first round has been a big defense boost for the Detroit Red Wings.

Continuing with this speculation, the Red Wings will return to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 2002, when they last won the championship. Unlike the Penguins, this was an expected occurrence for the boys from Detroit. Based on trends, this was Detroit's year to lose in the first round of the playoffs, as early eliminations are far from rare for the Red Wings. But they were so hot this season that it seemed likely they would bunk that trend. And they did by pulling through with a six-game win over the Nashville Predators in the first round, followed by a four-game sweep of the Colorado Avalanche in the Conference Semifinals. The President's Trophy winners sit just one win away from the Cup Finals.

Like Pittsburgh, Detroit is a very versatile squad. In all aspects of the game, the Red Wings thrive. Offensively, they have some forces in the form of Zetterberg (19 points) and Pavel Datsyuk (18 points.) Johan Franzen, who could return from concussion-like symptoms at some point in this round, leads the NHL in playoff goals with 12. At the blue line, Niklas Kronwall (12 points), Brian Rafalski (10 points) and Nicklas Lidstrom (nine points) add a little fire power for both even strength and power play situations – of which Tomas Holmstrom is also dangerous in front of the net. Defensively, those blue liners are great assets. But Chris Osgood has been especially important to the Red Wings' success, taking over for Dominik Hasek in the first round to compile a 9-2 record in 12 games with a league leading 1.65 goals against average and second best save percentage of .927. Of the teams that still matter, Detroit boasts the best penalty kill at 87.5 percent with four shorthanded goals. And physically, you can never doubt the Red Wings. They have been the toughest team for years and should never be questioned when it comes to hard-nosed hockey.

Detroit has all the talent in the world to get the job done. Having Franzen return would give the team an immediate boost. And though nothing is officially set in stone, he could very well return early in the Finals. If he doesn't return, it will hurt. But it won't be detrimental to the Red Wings' chances.

If we do actually land a Red Wings vs. Penguins Stanley Cup Finals series, it's going to be something special to watch. The Penguins have the better statistics, but the Red Wings have the greater leadership and experience. If these games develop into high-scoring shootouts, they will favor Pittsburgh. Contrarily, I think Detroit is better suited for tighter defensive battles. Since I believe we're likely to witness more of the latter, I give the advantage and Stanley Cup victory to the Red Wings in six games.

Outside of the hockey itself, one of the things I'm extra intrigued about is ratings. A Red Wings vs. Penguins final can be the series that decides whether the NHL still has any kind of drawing power. Even though the two finals we've received since the NHL returned from its lockout have been great (on paper) for us hardcore fans, casual and non-fans didn't give a damn, which could clearly be seen by horrible ratings. But this series gives fans a storyline that should peak interest. You have a team full of some of the best young talent in the league, led by the savior Sidney Crosby, going up against one of the most storied franchises in NHL history – the Detroit Red Wings. If ratings continue to be sour with a series like this, panic better ensue in the NHL offices because that's going to be a really bad sign of the American fan apathy toward hockey.

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Until next week, you have just been Inside The Penalty Box!

~ Neil Borenstein