Inside The Penalty Box 10.04.08: 2008-09 NHL Season Predictions – Eastern Conference

Posted by Neil Borenstein on 10.04.2008

With the drop of the puck in Europe this afternoon, four teams in the NHL open up their 2008-09 regular season. In this edition of Inside The Penalty Box, Neil Borenstein gives his predictions on the Eastern Conference side of the league, from the regular season through the Conference Finals!

This afternoon, the puck drops on the 2008-09 National Hockey League season. While most teams will actually begin their campaigns no earlier than Thursday, October 9, four teams will do battle over in Europe to start their regular seasons. In two, two-game series taking place today and tomorrow, the New York Rangers will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in Prague, Czech Republic, while the Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators square off in Stockholm, Sweden.

With that, it's time for Inside The Penalty Box to toss out some predictions and lay out exactly how this upcoming year will go for all 30 NHL clubs.

Today, I give you the first part of the predictions – the Eastern Conference. I will break down the conference via each division, gather that all together for some final conference standings and provide my playoff prognostications to determine the Eastern Conference Champion. Be sure to check back on Wednesday (which is before any team outside of those four Eastern Conference clubs in Europe start their campaigns) when I post the Western Conference edition and determine the 2009 Stanley Cup Champion.

So, sit back, relax and get ready to send in some hate mail because I left your team out of the playoffs in the Inside The Penalty Box 2008-09 NHL Season Predictions: Eastern Conference!

2008-09 National Hockey League Season Predictions:Eastern Conference



Atlantic Division
1. Philadelphia Flyers
2. New Jersey Devils
3. Pittsburgh Penguins
4. New York Rangers
5. New York Islanders

1. Philadelphia Flyers: A drastic jump from dead last in the entire National Hockey League to a representative in the Eastern Conference Finals was a definite step in the right direction and surefire indication of what can happen when injuries are kept to a minimum, consistent goaltending is present and scoring depth is provided by both expected and unexpected sources. After a breakout 75-point campaign last year, Mike Richards will lead a deep group of scorers that only lost R.J. Umberger over the offseason, but is getting back 40-goal scorer Simon Gagne. Defensively, the Flyers are a lot more mobile with players like Derian Hatcher and Jason Smith out of the mix. Instead, Kimmo Timonen will lead the way along the blue line, which should see some good things from the Flyers' soon-to-be No. 1 defenseman, Braydon Coburn. And, of course, the hero from last year's playoff run, Martin Biron, gives Philadelphia No.1 goalie talent not seen consistently for quite some time. Overall, the strong play and chemistry that developed last season should continue on this year. Though they won't get it without a fight, the Flyers have all the tools necessary to take the Atlantic Division.

2. New Jersey Devils: New Jersey Devils head coach Brent Sutter has already stated that he wants to decrease Martin Brodeur's workload and play him in less games. But, we've heard that before. Considering the Devils live and die by the play of their goaltender, I see no reason to believe Brodeur won't be playing in all but four or five games this season. Unlike most years, the Devils also have the added benefit of more offense. While they will still rely on their defense above all else, they should see some increased scoring now that the signing of Brian Rolston gives them two solid lines of offense (Line 1: Elias/Rolston/Gionta; Line 2: Zubrus/Parise/Langenbrunner.) Also added was defensive-center Bobby Holik, who joins John Madden, Jay Pandolfo, David Clarkson, Mike Rupp and Travis Zajac on the third or fourth line. Overall, I don't see New Jersey taking the division. But they should be in a dogfight with the Flyers for a good part of the season.

3. Pittsburgh Penguins: I was damn near prepared to give the Penguins the division this year. Hell, even on second thought I had them no lower than second in the division – and I didn't even figure that to be by much. After all, they did come within two wins of being Stanley Cup Champions. But blue line injuries to their top two defensemen – Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney, as well as the fact that I believe offseason losses will be more of an obstacle than the Penguins probably believe, will cause some setbacks in what could have been a season of dominance in the Atlantic. Of course, the core players are still present. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin will lead the offensive charge, Jordan Staal will continue to develop into a big two-way threat and Marc-Andre Fleury will hopefully climb the ranks into elite status after an improved season that included clutch goaltending in the playoffs. But, Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski can't possibly replace the offense Gonchar and Whitney brought to the table, while Miroslav Satan, Ruslan Fedetenko and Eric Goddard won't bring the same kind of depth scoring and physicality now lost with the departures of Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts, Marian Hossa, Jarkko Ruutu and Georges Laraque. At some point, perhaps in January when at least Whitney should be back in the lineup, I think the Penguins will pull things together enough to take a run at a middle spot in both the division and conference. But early on, I think they'll stumble enough to take them out of the running for one of the top positions.

4. New York Rangers: A team very much in transition, the New York Rangers will depend heavily on their youngsters to provide some scoring in the absence of offseason losses Jaromir Jagr, Martin Straka, Sean Avery and Brendan Shanahan. Free agent signee Markus Naslund and trade acquisition Nikolai Zherdev will join Scott Gomez and Chris Drury in carrying the bulk of the offensive duties. But players such as Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan, Nigel Dawes and Lauri Korpikoski will be expected to step up and embrace a larger presence in the Rangers scoring picture. Fortunately, the Rangers can afford to have these question marks considering they ranked sixth in goals scored last year with Jagr and gang on the roster. Part of that is attributed to the defensive approach the Rangers have adopted over the past two years, which will remain the primary philosophy this season. Henrik Lundqvist is the leader in that department and should be even better than the three past years of Vezina Trophy finalist worthy production he's had during his tenure in the NHL. With a more well rounded group of defenders between Wade Redden's power play quarterbacking and puck movement, Marc Staal's stay-at-home dominance, Dan Girardi's shot blocking and Paul Mara's big shot and physicality (not to mention Michal Rozsival and Dmitri Kalinin, who has something to prove after a down year in Buffalo), the Rangers stand to be even better than the fourth-ranked defense they possessed last year. Overall, the Rangers' success will depend on how well this revamped group gels together and develops a chemistry. Unfortunately, I think that might take longer than expected and the first month or two could be pretty rocky. As a result, I don't see them playing for a top spot in the division, but instead position them to fight in the middle with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

5. New York Islanders: I don't really think much explanation needs to be given here. The only good things the New York Islanders have to look forward to this season are Kyle Okposo and free agent addition Mark Streit. Otherwise, this team did nothing productive this summer to improve a horrendous team from last season that ranked 23rd in goals against and dead last in goals scored. In fact, New York should be embarrassed enough that their scoring leader was Mike Comrie, who had a total of 49 points. The Islanders will remain a constant disappointment until they can force Charles Wang to sell the team, get Neil Smith (or some other competent general manager) to move Garth Snow out of a position he should have never held in the first place, and realize it's a bad idea to fire Ted Nolan and replace him with somebody that has no NHL coaching experience when much more qualified candidates like John Tortorella and Paul Maurice were available. Especially in the toughest division in the NHL, the Islanders are in store for a ridiculously long 2008-09 campaign.

Northeast Division
1. Montreal Canadiens
2. Boston Bruins
3. Ottawa Senators
4. Buffalo Sabres
5. Toronto Maple Leafs

1. Montreal Canadiens: Perhaps no team was as big a surprise last year as the Montreal Canadiens. They managed to jump from 10th place in the Eastern Conference two years ago to the regular season leader with 104 points. That success can be credited to two areas – an offense that ranked second in the league in goals scored and tremendous goaltending from both Cristobal Huet (prior to the trade deadline) and the team's franchise netminder, Carey Price (following the deadline.) Unfortunately, that successful run ended in the second round of the playoffs, when the Habs suffered a five-game defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Flyers just one round after narrowly sneaking out a series victory over the eighth seeded Boston Bruins. However, the Canadiens made their presence felt and definitely put themselves on the map. The only players of significance loss from last season are Michael Ryder and Mark Streit, but both are replaceable. Ryder is an excellent goal scorer and power play asset, but his production severely decreased last year and the Canadiens will be better off with Alex Tanguay and Robert Lang added to the fold. And as far as Streit is concerned, Andrei Markov will continue to reign as Montreal's offensive leader on the blue line while Yannick Weber will get a good look to replace at least some of Streit's offensive production. With a better looking offense, significant physical improvement with the addition of Georges Laraque and Price entering his first full season of starting in net, I expect better things from the Canadiens than last year. And for that, I have to see them repeating as Northeast Division Champions.

2. Boston Bruins: Nobody really expected much from the Boston Bruins last year, but grabbing the eighth seed in a tough Eastern Conference race and taking the top seeded-Montreal to seven games in the first round opened up a lot of eyes. This year, I think teams will pay a lot more attention to a team that's both physical and defensively strong under head coach Claude Julien. Even though a returning Patrice Bergeron, an ever-improving Phil Kessel and offseason addition Michael Ryder should provide the Bruins with a more offensive punch than they had last year (ranked 25th in goals scored), their bread and butter will be remain on the other side of the puck. Zdeno Chara's developed well into a blue line leader for the Bruins with his towering frame and ability to chip in 40-50 points, which is especially helpful in power play situations. Dennis Wideman is starting to look like a No. 2 as far as offense from defense is concerned after scoring 13 goals and 36 points last year, while guys like Andrew Ference and Shane Hnidy are going to provide a physical presence in their own zone. The Bruins have a bit of a conflict in net with the returning Manny Fernandez. But I think Tim Thomas has proven during his tenure with Boston that he's the best option and should retain that No. 1 status while Fernandez plays backup and Tuukka Rask gets some more time in the minors until room is created on the big club next season. One player on the Bruins squad that's going to get a lot of attention is Milan Lucic. He had a great rookie campaign that saw him develop into a power forward many believe resembles Cam Neely. He's in a bit of a preseason funk. But if he can break out of that, he has the potential to become the face of the franchise while playing on a versatile top line with Marc Savard and Ryder. Because I think Montreal is leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the Northeast Division, I can't say Boston is going to battle it out for first. But considering the rest of the division has question marks, I definitely see the Bruins having a more than realistic shot at finishing second.

3. Ottawa Senators: After a very strong first half to the 2007-08 season, the Ottawa Senators crumbled under internal conflicts and inconsistency for a deplorable second half that saw them win just 18 of their final 44 games and get swept by the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round of the playoffs. Just a year ago considered the best team in the Northeast Division, and perhaps the entire Eastern Conference, the Senators now resemble little more than a middle-of-the-pack organization that will undoubtedly have to fight for playoff contention all season long. As I alluded to with the Boston Bruins, being in a weaker Northeast Division helps. I don't see Ottawa as far off the mark as perhaps the Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs are. The Senators are moving toward a system of balanced scoring and increased defense under new head coach Craig Hartsburg. In a move that I at least question somewhat, Daniel Alfredsson is being moved off the top line with Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley in favor of bringing more scoring depth behind one super line. There is a hope in this that Alfredsson can play alongside the likes of Mike Fisher and Antoine Vermette and get them to produce more offensively for secondary scoring. If this plan backfires, though, the Senators could just be breaking up three players that accounted for about 45 percent of the team's 258 league-leading goals in 2007-08. The Senators should find more success in their ambition to decrease opposition scoring, though. The goaltending controversy that played a major role in last year's downfall should be avoided, as Martin Gerber is the team's undisputed No. 1 starter and Alexander Auld will back him up. Ray Emery isn't there to disrupt that formation with his lackluster efforts in net. Also, while the Senators may have lost almost all offensive potential on their blue line with the offseason subtractions of Wade Redden and Andrej Meszaros, they have the ability to give team fits with great defensive assets in free agent signee Jason Smith, Chris Phillip and Anton Volchenkov, as well as a solid group of checking line forwards. Overall, though, this is still a team making adjustments and they can't be figured in as a surefire contender during that process.

4. Buffalo Sabres: The Buffalo Sabres are renowned for mishandling the futures of the organization's top stars. Not jumping at the opportunity to re-sign key players like Chris Drury, Daniel Briere and most recently Brian Campbell to reasonable contract extensions in both length and salary, many of the top players responsible for Buffalo's back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals appearances in 2006 and 2007 are now gone. Over the past year, general manager Darcy Regier has started to show a new proactive philosophy in these contract situations, tendering extensions to many of the team's new core players like Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Ryan Miller, Paul Gaustad and Jochen Hecht. But, in my opinion, this team is still at least one year away from contending with the upper-echelon teams of the Eastern Conference. It's not because they're lacking offensively. They ranked fourth in goals scored across the NHL last year, and that should improve if Vanek can have a rebound season. They were pretty poor defensively, though, and I still have my doubts about the caliber goalie Ryan Miller is. The additions of Craig Rivet and the return of Teppo Numminen should aid Buffalo in improving upon their 21st ranking defensive performance last season, but I can't imagine it will be by all that much. Where I really worry the most about this team is in two areas – the power play and in overall leadership. Campbell's loss leaves the Sabres without a really good puck-moving defenseman that can quarterback a power play. And stacked on top of the previous summer losses of Briere and Drury, Buffalo is still waiting around for players like Roy and Pominville to develop a real sense of leadership on the team. They might not be too far off, but it's not going to come full circle this season. I think it's going to take Buffalo at least one more year to start working their way back up to a top team in the division and maybe even the conference.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs: Finally, Toronto Maple Leafs management is ready to come to the realization that after three straight years of missing the playoffs, it's time to enter rebuilding mode. The Maple Leafs are entering next year with lowered expectations and many of the team's most notable players like Mats Sundin, Darcy Tucker and Bryan McCabe gone. Instead, the Maple Leafs enter the 2008-09 campaign under the guidance of new head coach Ron Wilson and several new players like Curtis Joseph, Jeff Finger, Mike Van Ryn, Jamal Mayers and Niklas Hagman. In addition to returning players like Jason Blake, Nik Antropov, Tomas Kaberle and Vesa Toskala, this team isn't being considered Stanley Cup contenders – but the beginning of a rebuilding phase that should have Toronto battling for contention within the next few years. With that said, unless the other teams in the division completely crumble, the Maple Leafs are the favorites to finish last and contend for the top overall selection in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.

Southeast Division
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Washington Capitals
3. Carolina Hurricanes
4. Florida Panthers
5. Atlanta Thrashers

1. Tampa Bay Lightning: No team has changed more from last season than the Tampa Bay Lightning. They have new ownership, no general manager and a new head coach that will oversee a group of players that has faced drastic revamping, as well. Perhaps in another division, all of this adjusting would make me hesitate to rank a team at the top. However, the Lightning have something in common with the other two contenders in the Southeast Division, Washington and Carolina – they all have tremendous scoring potential, but have question marks on defense and it net. Out of all those three teams, I think Tampa Bay has the most potential to bring out the best in their group of defensemen and goaltenders. Gone are Dan Boyle, Filip Kuba and Alexander Picard. Paul Ranger and Shane O'Brien will now be joined on defense by Andrej Mezsaros, who is becoming a very good all around defenseman and could very well become Tampa's No. 1 blue liner, and Matt Carle, who scored 42 points just two years ago with San Jose and will be looked upon immensely for blue line scoring. I think those four provide Tampa Bay with a solid group of young players capable of being both defensively smart and physical while giving their forwards some support in the offensive zone. Mike Smith also isn't a sure thing considering he struggled somewhat following his acquisition by the Lightning at last year's deadline, added with the fact that this is his first run as a team's No. 1 option. But, he proved two years ago in Dallas that he has all the potential to succeed by damn near stealing the starting job away from Marty Turco at times. And, if all else fails, the Lightning have 16-year veteran Olaf Kolzig backing him up and would have no hesitation in putting the former Capital between the pipes if necessary. Offense isn't even remotely a problem, as Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis will now have the support of familiar face Vaclav Prospal and new faces Ryan Malone, Mark Recchi, Gary Roberts and Radim Vrbata. Also, Steve Stamkos is being thrust right into the mix after being selected first overall in this year's draft, and a 60-point campaign is expected out of the kid who must be considered the preseason favorite to win Rookie of the Year. In my book, Tampa Bay's greater potential to succeed in its perceived areas of weakness has it ahead of the other teams competing for the top spot in the Southeast.

2. Washington Capitals: So, I hear this Alexander Ovechkin kid is pretty good. I mean, I don't understand why he couldn't score 70 goals last season. But, I suppose 65 is good, too. For as good as Ovechkin is, one man cannot lead a team to greatness on his own. I believe that over the past few years, Washington has brought in some great talent to surround Ovechkin through drafting, free agency and trading. Nicklas Backstrom will have a field day centering Ovechkin from day one, while Alexander Semin, Viktor Kozlov, Michael Nylander, Brooks Laich, Chris Clark and Sergei Fedorov should provide some solid secondary scoring behind that top pair. And to make sure all these offensive weapons don't get taken advantage of, Donald Brashear and Matt Bradley provide enough grit and physicality to make the opposition back off. Unfortunately for Washington, defense is a suspect position. And, there is doubt about Jose Theodore's ability to continue playing like he did last year with Colorado. Brent Johnson isn't the most comfortable backup option in the NHL these days, so there's a lot vested in Theodore coming out strong. In front of Theodore, Mike Green is a sure thing at this point and should contribute on both ends of the ice. And Tom Poti should continue to help out somewhat on offense, though he's steadily losing his luster in that department. But behind them, the rest of Washington's defensemen leave a bit to be desired. There is hope that Karl Alzner will become a No. 2 alongside Green. But only time will tell how well that desire works out. For now, Washington will need plenty of scoring. And I think they'll get enough to fall just one spot on the division from their first place finish last year.

3. Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina is looking to avoid becoming the first team to miss the playoffs for three straight seasons following a Stanley Cup Championship victory. They haven't been able to find the magic that led them to the Cup in the season immediately following the lockout, and it doesn't help their chances that Washington and Tampa Bay have become better organizations heading into this campaign. A lot of Carolina's misfortune last season could be attributed to a plethora of injuries, of which they'll still have to deal with one to Justin Williams that will have him missing four to six months. But with Eric Staal leading the charge and Rod Brind'Amour, Ray Whitney, Scott Walker and Matt Cullen back in the fold, Carolina still has enough depth to get a good amount of scoring. And that's not even considering Sergei Samsonov, who, despite scoring 32 points in 38 games last year with Carolina, I don't view making a huge impact because he hasn't done so since 2001-02 with Boston. Once again, though, we take a look at defense, and there's nothing too thrilling along Carolina's blue line. Joe Corvo will give the Hurricanes some offense and Tim Gleason is a good hitter. But I fail to see them any better defensively than the team that finished 25th in goals against last year. They brought in Joni Pitkanen in the trade that sent Erik Cole to Edmonton, but he has become increasingly disappointing since posting 13 goals and 46 points with Philadelphia in 2005-06. In net, Cam Ward may have had his best season with 37 wins last year. But his .904 save percentage and 2.75 goals against average were 31st and 32nd, respectively, among NHL goaltenders. And even without looking at the stats, I still don't completely trust Ward to be that game-changing netminder he was during Carolina's Stanley Cup run. While the Lightning and Capitals look like teams improving with each passing season, the Hurricanes appear to be on the decline. They could very well be in store for three straight years without postseason action.

4. Florida Panthers: The Florida Panthers seem to be at least in the early stages of what could be climbing that ladder in the Southeast Divison. They made two significant trades this offseason, both of which were aimed at adding some talent to the blue line. At the draft, Olli Jokinen was traded to the Phoenix Coyotes in exchange for Keith Ballard and Nick Boyton, while Bryan McCabe was later acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs. These three players will give some serious depth behind Jay Bouwmeester, who might be in his last season with the Panthers. Now, I don't think this group will be significantly better in their own end since I think the names added provide a little bit more in the scoring department than in their own zone (I'm most specifically talking about McCabe.) However, the Panthers ranked in the top half in goals against last season, which isn't too bad. And it also makes things better with Tomas Vokoun as the last line of defense in net. With Jokinen out of the picture, though, the Panthers' offense will suffer. Outside of Nathan Horton, who had 62 points and could be a 30-35 goal scorer this season, nobody was really spectacular offensively behind Jokinen. Stephen Weiss, who moves in as the team's top center, had only 29 assists and 42 points. Richard Zednik, who should return from that horrific neck injury, is really only a 15-goal, 30-point scorer at this point. Rotislav Olesz is maybe a 30-point producer. And Brett McLean appears to be a 30-assist, 40-45-point producer at his best. Now, the addition of Cory Stillman and David Booth's potential to improve after a 22-goal sophomore season gives the Panthers some hope. But, I just don't see them getting enough from their top forwards. And defensively, the Panthers still don't have all the tools necessary to make up for a lack of scoring. Florida is good enough at this stage to not be the worst team in the division. But they're not good enough to be ahead of Tampa Bay, Washington and Carolina.

5. Atlanta Thrashers: Well, the Atlanta Thrashers did appear to be on the right track two years ago when they made the playoffs for the first time before being swept by the New York Rangers in the first round. But last year, they reverted back to being a subpar team – finishing 14th in the conference and trading the second most important superstar on their team (Marian Hossa) at the trade deadline. Really, behind Ilya Kovalchuk, this team has nothing spectacular to offer offensively. In fact, a top line of Kovalchuk, Erik Christensen and Colby Armstrong sounds just downright depressing. Even if free agent pickup Jason Williams can take the top unit centering job over Christensen, it still leaves a lot to be desired. On defense, the Thrashers are somewhat intriguing, with Tobias Enstrom and free agent pickup Ron Hainsey leading the blue line along with trade acquisition Mathieu Schneider. Zach Bogosian will also be fun to watch develop, considering he's been hyped as a good all around talent. But even those four aren't going to be good enough to keep things in order while trying to overcome the team's offensive shortcomings. And in net, Kari Lehtonen has yet to really prove he can be the long-term goaltender the Thrashers need, and I don't think Johan Hedberg is either. Ondrej Pavelec is waiting in the wings, but he's largely unproven, as well, having played in just seven NHL games. This is going to be a long season for Atlanta. The Thrashers just better hope they get on track quickly, or they could very lose Kovalchuk to free agency when his contract expires in two years.

Final Standings
1. Montreal Canadiens
2. Philadelphia Flyers
3. Tampa Bay Lightning
4. New Jersey Devils
5. Washington Capitals
6. Boston Bruins
7. Pittsburgh Penguins
8. New York Rangers
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9. Carolina Hurricanes
10. Ottawa Senators
11. Buffalo Sabres
12. Florida Panthers
13. Atlanta Thrashers
14. Toronto Maple Leafs
15. New York Islanders

Eastern Conference Playoffs

Conference Quarterfinals

1. Montreal Canadiens vs. 8. New York Rangers (Canadiens in six)
2. Philadelphia Flyers vs. 7. Pittsburgh Penguins (Flyers in six)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning vs. 6. Boston Bruins (Bruins in five)
4. New Jersey Devils vs. 5. Washington Capitals (Capitals in five)

Conference Semifinals

1. Montreal Canadiens vs. 6. Boston Bruins (Canadiens in five)
2. Philadelphia Flyers vs. 5. Washington Capitals (Capitals in six)

Conference Finals

1. Montreal Canadiens vs. 5. Washington Capitals (Canadiens in seven)

Eastern Conference Champions
Montreal Canadiens

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And that puts a close in this first part of the Inside The Penalty Box 2008-09 NHL Season Predictions. Again, be sure to check back Wednesday (one day before the league opens up the regular season in North America) for the Western Conference portion of these predictions – and the Stanley Cup Finals!

Photo Credits: Crosby/Malkin, Price, Ovechkin/Semin photos courtesy of daylife.com & AP Photo; Logo images courtesy of Yahoo! Sports

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Until next week, you have just been Inside The Penalty Box!

~ Neil Borenstein