Breaking the Offside Trap 04.08.09: Predicting the Future

Posted by Matt Snelling on 04.08.2009

BREAKING NEWS! 411 EXCLUSIVE! Who will win the Premier League? Who will get into Europe? Who is doomed for the drop and will West Ham (as usual) finish in 10th? All the answers exclusively inside...



Predicting the future, how good are we at it? Any Mystic Meg's in the building? (apologies for the dated UK cultural reference there) It's hard isn't it, when you have so many intangibles that can have an effect and impact on events in the future, trying to predict what will happen. Even those seen to be ‘clever' and ‘learned' people struggle to see round corners. Did we all see a global economic recession coming people?

Predicting things can also make people look pretty stupid. Believe me, I should know. If you look back through the 411 archives you'll see a few stinkers (Luca Toni top scorer at Euro 2008 anyone?). It also means that you leave yourself open to some ridicule by those who have the benefit of hindsight (even getting a healthy 6 correct predictions from 8 Champions League ties is enough to be called pathetic round here).

So anyone want to stick their neck on the block and say who's going to win the Premier League? Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea? Any takers? Who's going down? Is it the end for any of the North East's erm...'finest' or are plucky Hull already going to have ‘second season syndrome' before they've completed their first? One thing's for sure, Tottenham will finish mid-table, spend another £100 million on ex-players, think they are qualifying for the Champions League, lose their first 8 games, bring in a new manager, get to the Carling Cup final, finish mid-table blah, blah, blah and then repeat the process to the end of time.

So I thought it may be interesting to try and predict the future (well for one or two of you out there it might be), filling in the results week by week and then seeing what the final table looks like. Not exactly scientifically sound or anything but the BBC's excellent predictor facility (go www.bbc.co.uk to try yourself) allows you to shape how you think the league will finish. For my own curiosity I did the one for the Championship around this time last year to try and work out whether or not the mighty Palace would get to the playoff's (they did) and in the end my table worked out pretty similar to the real thing.

Now there is no chance this time round of us making the play-offs (mired in mid-table will do nicely this season thank you) so I decided to put my efforts into seeing the conclusion of the scintillating battle of whether or not West Ham could finish in their traditional 10th place (and lo and behold...)

Saturday, 11 April 2009
Chelsea 2 Bolton 0
Liverpool 2 Blackburn 0
Middlesbrough 1 Hull 1
Portsmouth 2 West Brom 1
Stoke 2 Newcastle 1
Sunderland 1 Man Utd 3
Tottenham 2 West Ham 0
Wigan 1 Arsenal 1

And we begin with what will no doubt be some top notch complaining from Senor Benitez, given that despite playing on Wednesday (that's 24 hours later than Manchester United) in the Champions League, Liverpool are scheduled for a Saturday lunchtime kick off. Despite any protestations they shouldn't have too many problems against Sam Allardyce's improving and obstinate Blackburn Rovers.

Manchester United and Chelsea will both then be playing catch up, but again look to have a pair of favourable fixtures. Bolton (at time of predictions) are eight points clear of relegation and you wonder if a few in the Wanderers ranks may be thinking of the summer.

At the bottom, the big clashes are at the Britannia and the Riverside. Middlesbrough need the three points but I can see Hull getting what maybe a valuable point. Stoke simply put will be too big and strong for Newcastle's porous defence and will heap more misery on the Magpies

Sunday, 12 April 2009
Aston Villa 1 Everton 1
Man City 2 Fulham 0

Villa seem to have fallen apart in recent times and look to be slipping well behind Arsenal in the race for 4th. There immediate concern should be the team over their shoulders (Everton) who are on an absolute roll. This should be a hard fought draw.

Oh yeah and um...Man City against Fulham...we'll move on shall we?

Saturday, 18 April 2009
Aston Villa 2 West Ham 1
Middlesbrough 1 Fulham 0
Portsmouth 1 Bolton 1
Stoke 0 Blackburn 0
Sunderland 1 Hull 0

Not exactly the most scintillating bunch of fixtures, but some pretty big ones at the bottom. Traditionally Fulham don't travel too well and this could be Boro's chance to pick up a much needed win. Same goes for Sunderland, who are dropping like a stone with a manager (Ricky Sbragia) who seems way out of his depth. Regardless, they are pretty strong at home and should pick up 3 points here. Stoke vs. Blackburn has the potential to be as ugly a spectacle as you are ever likely to see and I'd hate to be the ref in that one. It's got draw written all over it.

Sunday, 19 April 2009
Man City 4 West Brom 0
Tottenham 3 Newcastle 2

West Brom are down and out I'm afraid and this looks like the classic game (i.e. at home to someone useless) where Robinho will decide to turn up and score a special hat trick or something. Newcastle will need to stop the rot and their record against Tottenham is ridiculously good, but again I just don't think that the defence will be able to live with Tottenham's forward line. Then again, the Tottenham players will probably be on the beach at this point.

Tuesday, 21 April 2009
Liverpool 1 Arsenal 0

Arsenal are the wildcard in the title race as they still have to play all the top 3 and right now are in fantastic form. This one will be tight, but despite Arsenal's apparent new found solidness at the back and return of big players, Gerrard to just overshadow Cesc and Liverpool to nick it by one, probably in the last minute or the like...

Wednesday, 22 April 2009
Chelsea 1 Everton 0
Man Utd 3 Portsmouth 0

On paper a tough one for Chelsea, but despite their impressive form and league position Everton just don't beat Top 4 sides. Man Utd will comfortably roll over Portsmouth. Next.

Saturday, 25 April 2009
Bolton 2 Aston Villa 1
Everton 2 Man City 0
Fulham 1 Stoke 0
Hull 0 Liverpool 1
Man Utd 2 Tottenham 1
West Brom 2 Sunderland 1
West Ham 0 Chelsea 0

This will be the weekend before the semis of the Champions League, and at this point I believe that Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal will all still be involved, therefore we could see some resting and rotation going on. In the past Liverpool would appear to be nailed on to go and lose at Hull after unleashing the likes of El Zahr and N'Gog before winning a big Champions League tie but I still think they will have too much for Hull.

In theory before a big Champions League semi against Arsenal, Tottenham would probably be on paper a tough game BUT that doesn't take into account that Tottenham are absolutely pathetic when they play one of the big teams (despite thinking they are one).

This could be West Brom's best chance of a win in their remaining fixtures and they could put a real dent in Sunderland's survival hopes. Villa will find it hard to regain momentum at Bolton and I can see a victory for the home side there.

Sunday, 26 April 2009
Arsenal 4 Middlesbrough 1
Blackburn 1 Wigan 1

Not much to see here, but I anticipate Arsenal doing their usual at home to Boro, i.e. running in a lot of goals. Is 4 too bold a claim?

Monday, 27 April 2009
Newcastle 2 Portsmouth 1

Newcastle must win this game, they have to win this game, and I think they will. Just. Shearer to pick up a vital first win.

Saturday, 2 May 2009
Aston Villa 2 Hull 0
Chelsea 2 Fulham 0
Liverpool 4 Newcastle 1
Man City 2 Blackburn 1
Middlesbrough 1 Man Utd 1
Portsmouth 0 Arsenal 1
Stoke 0 West Ham 0
Sunderland 1 Everton 0
Tottenham 3 West Brom 1
Wigan 2 Bolton 0

Obviously some of these games will be moved to the Sunday etc. and at the moment we don't know which, but this will again be a weekend before Champions League so bare that in mind. Man Utd then may choose to rest some players and incredibly I can see Middlesbrough getting something here. Historically it's not the games against the big teams that are the problem for them and it wouldn't shock me to see them get a point.

Liverpool scored 5 at St. James' Park at the turn of the year and I can see them running in a few more, even with the fact that both Torres and Gerrard will probably be on the bench. How much home advantage is important is always open to debate but looking at these fixtures I'm going all out, yeah that's right all out and saying no away wins here. Stoke to put a nice gap between them and the bottom here.

Saturday, 9 May 2009
Arsenal 1 Chelsea 1
Blackburn 1 Portsmouth 0
Bolton 0 Sunderland 0
Everton 2 Tottenham 1
Fulham 2 Aston Villa 2
Hull 1 Stoke 1
Man Utd 3 Man City 0
Newcastle 2 Middlesbrough 1
West Brom 0 Wigan 1
West Ham 1 Liverpool 1

Again, some of these fixtures will no doubt be moved (thus causing Messer's Ferguson and Benitez to argue over who the FA is favouring this week etc.) but there are some big fixtures here.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea is the stand out glamour game and I think it will be a frustrating day for the men from South London as they will fall off the pace at the top. West Ham are usually a tricky opponent for the big sides and I can definitely see them putting a spanner in the works of Liverpool's charge up the table. Man Utd have the big Manchester Derby, but unlike last season when their rivals beat them home and away, this time out City have all the resilience of a paper bag in the rain and they will put up little fight what so ever, despite their fans no doubt hoping to be a stumbling block.

At the bottom, Hull, Sunderland, Newcastle and Middlesboro look to all have must win games, and as the latter two plays against one another someone is going to be staring relegation right down the barrel. This is a local derby, and I can see the home side just shading it, as they have just a few extra match winners in their squad. Afonso Alves is not clinical, Michael Owen is. Him (for once) to be the difference.

Hull and Sunderland both have games against the exact teams you don't ever want to face when needing something (the rather delightful combination of Stoke and Bolton respectively). Neither of these sides give anything away cheaply and I feel it could be a tense and frustrating day for the two strugglers facing them.

Wednesday, 13 May 2009
Wigan 0 Man Utd 1

This is United's game in hand, and despite Wigan once again proving to be a remarkable success this year, Steve Bruce has already started making worrying noises that his side have ‘downed tools for the season'. Man Utd to do just enough to sneak away with what could be an important and decisive victory.

Saturday, 16 May 2009
Bolton 1 Hull 0
Chelsea 2 Blackburn 0
Everton 1 West Ham 0
Man Utd 1 Arsenal 1
Middlesbrough 1 Aston Villa 2
Newcastle 1 Fulham 1
Portsmouth 1 Sunderland 1
Stoke 2 Wigan 0
Tottenham 2 Man City 2
West Brom 1 Liverpool 3

And this is the weekend which should lead to the race at top and bottom going down to the wire. At this point, I can really see Arsenal frustrating Manchester United. They have been in great form in 2009 and I also think they will be bang up for getting some revenge on United, following what I think will be a victory for the Northerners in the all English semi final. In contrast an already relegated West Brom should be just the game Liverpool would want on the penultimate weekend.

At the bottom, I envisage a situation where Newcastle will be looking to wrap up survival in front of their own fans against Fulham before it going to the last week but with the demanding pressure of the their public, look for an impressive and solid Fulham side to make the Geordies sweat right till the end.

Middlesbrough will be desperate for a win but by coming forward to try and deliver it I can see them being picked off by a Villa side that are excellent on the counter attack and who may still have a whiff of 4th place. Hull's trip to Bolton is a tossup that I was really struggling to call. Bolton will have nothing to play for at that point but as I have said they are exactly the opposite team you would want on an occasion such as this, when you'd much rather prefer a flaky Manchester City or Tottenham.

Sunday, 24 May 2009
Arsenal 2 Stoke 0
Aston Villa 3 Newcastle 1
Blackburn 2 West Brom 0
Fulham 1 Everton 1
Hull 1 Man Utd 2
Liverpool 2 Tottenham 0
Man City 3 Bolton 1
Sunderland 0 Chelsea 1
West Ham 2 Middlesbrough 2
Wigan 2 Portsmouth 0

And so to the decisive end of the season. Let's go for the battle to avoid the drop first and if my predictions have come true (which I'm sure you can take to the bank at this point) it will be Portsmouth, Newcastle and Hull still sweating on the final day for the ‘right' to join West Brom and Boro in the Championship.

This is one of those where it's hard to pontificate because you never know how changing score lines elsewhere can have an influence on the game you're watching when news begins to filter through. So that's my proviso really, because at the moment I have all 3 losing on the final day (way to stay up in style!) but if things began to turn in a certain way, I reckon that would probably give Portsmouth the kick up the backside needed to get a cheeky win at mid-table Wigan.

So Hull or Newcastle, well, as in my final table you will be able to see below I've got it coming down to goal difference and so it may be a case of who doesn't lose by the most. The pity for Hull is that they will be playing Manchester United, who in my world will need the three points to make certain of the title (given that Tottenham will obviously roll over at Anfield).

This means that I have Manchester United taking the title in the end by two points from Liverpool after a nerve changeling chase over the remaining g few games when at one point it seemed all done and dusted. For Chelsea, despite Hiddink's arrival the damage had already been done around Christmas time and there are still fundamental problems with the squad that need addressing. In the end they just won't have enough to get within reach.

Villa are going through a bit of a dip at the moment, which they should recover from but not enough to get that 4th place. A couple of months ago they had Arsenal on the ropes but failed to land the knock out blows and ended up punching themselves out. Think that's enough of the boxing analogies for now but bottom line is that Arsenal will make sure the ‘Top 4' is fully represented as usual.



So that's the final table then for 2008/09 do we agree? Obviously there are so many intangibles here that could make what I've done there appear completely ridiculous, given that every result has a knock on effect for another and that we have no idea how teams will get on in Europe or whether Cristiano Ronaldo will break his leg in freak training ground collision with Mike Phelan. We just don't know, but it's fun to guess.

I would be very interested to see what others thought, or if you have your own go, what your table's look like. Comments at the bottom if you like...