Across The Net: Oh Canada! Tennis' elite descend on Montreal
Posted by Dan Martin on 08.07.2006
Looking for trends heading into this year's U.S. Open? The Canadian Open ought to provide a few...
The North American hard court circuit begins in earnest on August 7 with the opening rounds of the Canadian Open. That does not mean that the previous three weeks of smaller hard court events will not have an impact on the U.S. Open. Before I analyze the Canadian Open draw I would like to discuss the major storylines in men's and women's tennis from the previous few weeks.
1. Andy Roddick hires Jimmy Connors as a coach. Tactically, the two players could not be more different. Connors was a lefty who stayed close to the baseline, hit a great two handed backhand and had an uncanny knack for returning serve. Roddick plays right-handed, stays far behind the baseline, has a pretty neutral two handed backhand and a soft return of serve. However, if Connors can get Roddick to compete harder and return serve with greater intensity, Roddick may well be able to return to the Top 5 in men's tennis. So far, Roddick has won 6 matches and lost 1 since consulting with Connors. These are promising results, but he had to withdraw from LA and skip both DC and Montreal with a back injury.
2. Maria Sharapova and Kim Clijsters appear to be in form. World #2 Kim Clijsters has won one tune-up event and been runner-up at another as she prepares to defend her 2005 U.S. Open crown. Clijsters has played well this year by reaching the semifinals of the first three Grand Slam events. She has however not played with the focus that brought her the U.S. Open title one year ago. World #4 Maria Sharapova has not been particularly effective vs. top 5 players in the world. Her 6'2" frame allows her to hit booming serves and powerful ground strokes, but her awkward footwork has been exploited time and again by the elite in the women's game. On August 6, she defeated Kim Clijsters 7-5, 7-5. This win ought to bolster her confidence as she attempts to prove that her 2004 Wimbledon title was not a fluke. She will need to demonstrate greater mobility and consistency to make this happen.
3. James Blake enters the top 5 in men's tennis. On one hand this is no big deal, because Federer and Nadal are playing at such a higher level than the rest of the field. The difference between #20 in the world and #3 is perhaps not as great as the difference between #3 and #2. Having said that James Blake has won 3 titles this year and been runner-up at two other events. Blake has earned his #5 ranking, but needs to prove he deserves it at the U.S. Open. He is 2-0 vs. Nadal with both matches coming on hard courts in the U.S. NY could be where the 26 year old former Harvard Crimson proves he is an elite player.
4. Marat Safin might be back. Safin is as erratic as he is talented. Safin won the 2000 U.S. Open and 2005 Australian Open. He also was runner-up down under in 2002 and 2004 and reached the 2001 U.S. Open semifinals. He reached the semifinals in DC beating James Blake 7-6, 7-5 along the way. Watch out if Safin can get back to his 2005 Australian Open form by the time the U.S. Open starts.
5. Andre Agassi loses early in DC and skips Montreal. Some may view Agassi's uninspired play in DC as a sign that Andre will lose early in NY. My thought is that Andre was not going to jeopardize NY by dying in the heat and humidty of DC. Agassi was runner-up in Canada last year and that was probably a better farewell than he would give this year. So Andre, who skipped Cincinnati last year, likely felt it was only fair to skip Montreal this year and give Cincinnati a farewell before his final week of peparation for NY. Agassi says that playing 3 out of 5 set matches every other day is easier on his body than playing 2 out of 3 set matches every day. Since the U.S. Open gives players a day off between matches and will undoubtedly offer prime time matches in the cooler night air to Agassi, I would not give up on the old guy just yet.
Whether you call it the Canadian Open, Masters Series or the Rogers Cup, it is still the championship of Canada. The draw includes 15 of the top 16 players in the world (sans #9 Andy Roddick with a back injury) and ought to provide the first good measuring stick for the U.S. Open which begins in three weeks. Like the NCAA basketball championships, this tournament fields 64 players and requires the champion to win six single elimination matches. With players such as former #1 Lleyton Hewitt and L.A. winner Tommy Haas, Federer's quarter of the draw is not easy. However, Federer should be able to reach the semifinals in his first event since winning Wimbledon. World #2 Rafael Nadal faces a tougher road to the semifinals. He might face big serving Czech Thomas Berdych in the round of 16 or James Blake in the quarterfinals. Berdych and Blake have a 3-0 record vs. Nadal on hard courts over the past 12 months. Expect one of the three to be playing in the final four. Talented Frenchman Richard Gasquet also looms in this quarter of the draw. World #3 David Nalbandian does not have a tough draw, but also enters the tournament with a lot of question marks. After reaching the quarterfinals or further at four consecutive Grand Slam events, Nalbandian played uninspired tennis losing early at Wimbledon with speculation that he wanted to watch Argentina in the World Cup. This quarter appears to be pretty wide open. Scotland's Andy Murray could build on his runner-up finish in DC. World #4 Ivan Ljubicic has a very rough draw to the semifinals. He faces talented Spaniard Nicholas Almagro in the first round. Australian Open runner-up Marcos Baghdatis, Washington, DC champion Arnaud Clement, Chilean power broker Fernando Gonzalez and a potentially rejuvenated Marat Safin all make Ljubicic's quarter dangerous waters.
Predictions:
Semifinals: Roger Federer d. Marat Safin 6-4, 3-6, 7-5, James Blake d. Andy Murray 7-6, 6-4
Finals: Federer d. Blake 7-6, 6-4
