Across the Net: U.S. Open Preview
Posted by Dan Martin on 08.28.2006
Here are some ideas on how the drama in Flushing Meadows NY might play out over the next two weeks
The U.S. Open begins Monday. Before I get to the men's and women's draws, I will briefly comment on USA Network bumping the second Monday of the U.S. Open to CNBC in favor of WWE Raw. At first it seemed odd and almost a signal that ESPN would become the cable provider of all four of tennis' Grand Slam events. While this would not bother me, I would miss the history of Jimmy Connors talking to the USA Network commentators through the TV cameras on a late night in N.Y. or of Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi dueling into the early morning in front of a packed house. However, Raw will likely get far higher T.V. ratings than the normal night in Flushing Meadows and CNBC has terrible ratings so a normal night of tennis ought to boost their ratings too. Thus, the NBC family wins on both stations. So why not bump the first Monday over to CNBC as well? Obviously the ratings of ECW on Sci-Fi make moving Raw to Sci-Fi for one night only seem like a success in the making. However, the first Monday of the U.S. Open is not going to be an ordinary night session in Flushing Meadows. Andre Agassi will likely be the showcase match under the lights. Also, former champions Jimmy Connors, Chris Everett, and John McEnroe will be honoring Billy Jean King. Finally, I would not be shocked if they threw Maria Sharapova on court prior to Agassi's match. Given that this is Andre's swan song, USA has to broadcast it even if the ratings for wrestling might be higher. The line-up for the first night of the U.S. Open ought to draw a lot of high powered advertising money even if it scores lower than wrestling would have on USA.
Onto the draws:
I will address the men's and women's draws of 128 players in quarters. After predicting the eight quarterfinalists I will give my champion for each event.
#1 Seed Roger Federer's has a relatively friendly draw compared to the awful draw he received at Wimbledon (he still won the event). Federer faces an interesting second round match against either Greg Rusedski or Tim Henman. In the round of 16 former world #1 and rejuvenated Juan Carlos Fererro might give Federer a scare. Otherwise he is through to the quarterfinals. The second quarterfinalist from this draw is seeded to be James Blake. If Blake plays at the level that carried him to the quarterfinals last year in an epic 5 set clash vs. Agassi or at the level he played to reach the finals of the Pan Pacific Open in March or win the RCA championships in Indianapolis this July he could book a marquee match-up with Federer. Otherwise, rising star and 12th seeded Thomas Berdych is a good bet to reach the quarterfinals.
World #4 David Nalbandian is the worst bet of the top four seeds to reach the semifinals. Nalbandian won the 2005 year end championships and reached the semifinals in Australia and France this year, but since the French Open he has not played terribly well. Marat Safin is very dangerous. Andy Murray and Fernando Gonzalez are seeded to play in the third round. This match would be better suited for the quarterfinals. Last year's surprise semifinalist Robby Ginepri has a reasonably good draw for reaching the quarterfinals this year. I pick Ginepri and Gonzalez to reach the quarterfinals, but Safin could easily win this quarter of the draw.
World #3 Ivan Ljubicic is in the most star studded section of the draw. Ljubicic has played great tennis over the past 52 weeks leading Croatia to the 2005 Davis Cup title, reaching three masters series finals and playing well at the Australian and French Opens. His draw includes 2001 US Open Champion Lleyton Hewitt who has reached the quarterfinals or further at the last five U.S. Opens. Andy Roddick, the 2003 champion, who is armed with confidence from new coach Jimmy Connors and his title in Cincinnati last week. Marcos Baghdatis who beat Ljubicic in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open earlier this year is looking to make his third deep run at a Grand Slam event in 2006. Richard Gasquet, runner-up at Montreal to Federer and conqueror of Ljubicic at the 2005 U.S. Open, looks to take down the 3rd seed in the 3rd round. Of course Andre Agassi is also in Ljubicic's side of the draw. This ought to make for some interesting tennis. If Agassi can move reasonably well he and the situation will be too much for Baghdatis in a second round spectacular. This could lead to Andy Roddick with Jimmy Connors in his corner taking on Andre Agassi in the round of 16 in front of what ought to be a rabid crowd. Of course Andrei Pavel, Marcos Baghdatis or Thomas Johansson all have the ability to beat a less than 100% Agassi. I imagine that Roddick makes his way into the quarterfinals and he faces either Ljubicic or Gasquet. Hewitt, Baghdatis and Agassi all could be there as well.
World #2 Rafael Nadal got a bad first round match, but a friendly draw on the whole. Nadal has had trouble against big serving and attacking players this summer. The surface in NY plays fast so guys who take chances and end points early with bombs off of the serve mess up Nadal's rhythm of playing long points. Nadal's strategy of taking a guys conditioning to task is also more difficult on a faster surface. Luckily for Nadal his draw is filled with baseline players who will either have to jettison their normal tactics or play into Nadal's strengths. Mark Philippoussis was considered to be a sure fire top five player and Grand Slam contender when he broke onto the scene in the mid-1990's. Injuries and poor motivation combined to hamper his career, but he also reached the 1998 U.S. Open and 2003 Wimbledon finals. Philippoussis has the heaviest serve on tour. Roddick might get more miles-per-hour, but the combination of speed and spin on Philippoussis serve make it deadly. Philippoussis won a grass court event in July and served masterfully in doing so. If he serves huge against Nadal he has the net game and forehand to pull off an upset. Nadal also might face a tricky third round match against either Gael Monfils of France or Max Mirnyi of Belarus. Mirnyi plays a lot like Philippoussis and Monfils has a ton of talent. Beyond that Nadal ought to be favored in all of his pre-semifinal matches. My picks for the quarterfinals are Nadal and Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland. Nicholas Almagro of Spain may be the one clay courter with the firepower to beat Nadal from the baseline.
Quarterfinals: Federer d. Berdych 7-6, 6-2, 6-3, Fernando Gonzalez d. Robby Ginepri 7-5, 6-4, 7-5, Andy Roddick d. Richard Gasquet 4-6, 7-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5, Rafael Nadal d. Stanislas Wawrinka 5-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4
Semifinals: Federer d. Gonzalez 7-6, 6-3, 7-5, Roddick d. Nadal 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6
Finals: Federer d. Roddick 7-6, 4-6, 6-1, 6-3
Upset Special – Philippoussis' game matches up well with Nadal's. The speed of the surface makes this a tempting upset pick. I give Philippoussis a 40% chance of winning this match and opening up the bottom half of the draw.
The Women's Draw: With defending champion Kim Clijsters not playing (wrist injury) and the lack of quality depth on the women's draw one can expect the top seeds to hold up more frequently than on the men's side of things.
Amelie Mauresmo might still be on a post Wimbledon high, but her draw to the round of 16 looks pretty good where she would face either Serena Williams or Ana Ivanovic. Mauresmo ought to reach the quarters, but either of those players could pull the upset. I expect to see Martina Hingis waiting for Mauresmo in the quarterfinals.
Maria Sharapova had a great summer and as the 3rd seed she looks poised to win her second Grand Slam title. Two major questions persist: Is she strong enough physically to win seven matches on hard courts? Is her footwork good enough to keep her error count low enough to beat Mauresmo or Henin-Hardenne? She ought to do well if the answer to both of those questions is "Yes." Sharapova ought to reach the quarterfinals with little resistance after a tough first round draw. There she will likely meet fellow Russian Anastasia Myskina.
Fourth seeded Elena Dementieva of Russia was runner-up at the U.S. Open in 2004 and a semi-finalist in 2005. Her path back to the semifinals will likely include a round of 16 encounter with Vera Zvonareva and a quarterfinal match with Nicole Vaidisova, who at 6'1" has the potential to be a better version of Sharapova. Both challengers posses a bigger serve than Dementieva. However, Elena is among the best athletes and best competitors on tour. This ought to help her through a tough draw.
Second seed Justine Henin-Hardenne has a great draw to reach the semifinals. Lindsay Davenport might meet her in the quarterfinals if her health is there, but Henin-Hardenne should have the goods to reach the semifinals.
Quarterfinals: Amelie Mauresmo d. Martina Hingis 3-6, 6-4, 6-1, Maria Sharapova d. Anastasia Myskina 6-2, 6-1, Elena Dementieva d. Nicole Vaidisova 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, Justine Henin-Hardenne d. Lindsay Davenport 6-2, 6-2
Semifinals: Mauresmo d. Sharapova 7-5, 7-5 Dementieva d. Henin-Hardenne 2-6, 7-5, 7-6
Finals: Dementieva d. Mauresmo 6-3, 3-6, 6-4
Those are my picks. I will write at least one column between now and championship Sunday, but if Agassi gets eliminated especially if in epic fashion I will have to throw in a tribute to the man from Vegas.
