Across The Net: Federer Triumphs …
Posted by ikabod Crane on 11.20.2006
Federer was Federer this past week winning all five matches he played vs. the elite in men's tennis. What questions do the results form this week raise for the top eight players in the world?
Roger Federer went 5-0 in match play at the Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai this week. Federer capped an incredible season that saw him post:
A 27-1 record in Grand Slam play – Three titles and a runner-up finish at the French Open
A 34-3 record in Masters Series Play – Winning Indian Wells, Key Biscayne, Montreal, and Madrid
4 wins at smaller events: Doha (Qatar), Halle (Germany), Tokyo, and Basel (Switzerland)
With his Masters Cup title, Federer became the first ATP player since Thomas Muster in 1995 to win 12 tournaments in a year and the first man since Ivan Lendl in 1982 to win over 90 matches in one season. Federer entered 17 tournaments in 2006 winning 12 events and finishing runner-up at 4. To reach the finals or better of 16 out of 17 tournaments is insane. I could say more, but it would probably only distract from his awesome play and accomplishments.
If Federer had all of the right answers this past week, it does seem as though other ATP players face some pressing questions.
World #2 Rafael Nadal clearly had the second best 2006 of any ATP player. Nadal won the French Open, two Masters Series events and several smaller events. He also reached the Wimbledon final and U.S. Open quarterfinals. However, Nadal has not played terribly well since Wimbledon failing to defend his 2005 Canadian Open and Madrid titles. Nadal has not had any bad losses, but he has not demonstrated the form that led him to 11 titles in 2005. Nadal is the world's best clay court player, but will he be able to beef up his serve and flatten out his strokes enough to win big on faster surfaces? Does going for more on his serve and ground strokes lead Nadal to committing more unforced errors and ultimately undermine his formula for success? Nadal wins by grinding people down. If he tries to save his own body by playing higher risk tennis, he may be leaving his comfort zone.
(I am not sure what the right answer for Nadal is. If he is worried that his style of play will lead to physical ailments and mental exhaustion, then he does need to shorten points and take more risks. Otherwise, I'd say why mess with success?)
World #3 Nikolay Davydenko has had a dream year in which he captured 5 titles and was competitive at the Australian, French and U.S. Opens. Having said this, Davydenko's slight frame seems to leave him in a tough spot against players on faster surfaces. Davydenko also played more tennis than anyone on tour in 2006 by entering thirty-two tournaments and playing Davis Cup for Russia! Does cutting back on his schedule give Davydenko a better chance to finish at a Grand Slam?
World #4 James Blake also had a dream year. Blake won five tournaments and was runner-up at three others. Blake may be playing the best tennis of anyone not named Federer. However, Blake has looked brilliant for several weeks and then looked absolutely ordinary in some of his losses. Can Blake find a way to be more consistent over 52 weeks? If so, he might finish 2007 a slot or two above #4.
World #5 Ivan Ljubicic had two good results during the Grand Slams of 2006. However, Ljubicic's first round losses at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open are almost inexcusable for a man who is 6'4" and ranked in the top 10. Faster surfaces should benefit Ljubicic, but he instead seems to wilt when it looks like he might breakthrough at a major. Can Ljubicic use his power to be a factor at Wimbledon 2007?
World #6 Andy Roddick finished outside of the top three for the first time since 2002. Roddick still has to feel pretty good about winning Cincinnati and finishing 2nd at the 2006 U.S. Open. Roddick had three match points vs. Federer in round robin play this past week. Does Roddick have the psyche to keep challenging Federer if he knows most of those challenges will be turned back? One could hope so because Roddick's 140 mph serve gives him a punchers chance vs. Federer. However, Roddick could have steeled himself after losing to Federer and taken out Nalbandian and Blake to set up a rematch of the weeks best tennis match. Instead, Roddick got beaten soundly by Nalbandian and was eliminated.
World #7 Tommy Robredo was subject to some undue criticism for reaching the Masters Cup. Robredo acquitted himself well by beating Blake and pushing Nadal and Davydenko. However, Robredo is the world's second best pure clay court player, and the gap between 1 and 2 is not small. Federer also would be favored vs. Robredo on the dirt. Can Robredo find a way to breakthrough in Paris in 2007 or 2008? It is not impossible if the draw breaks his way, but winning big at the other three slams looks highly unlikely. Robredo needs to keep doing the right things and hope that the gods of the French Open draw smile on him before he is past his prime.
World #8 David Nalbandian left 2005 with massive momentum. At this time last year, Nadal had just won the Masters Cup by beating Federer and snapping Roger's record of 24 consecutive finals won. Nalbandian reached the semifinals in Paris and Melbourne, but seems far further from winning a slam going into 2007 than he did going into 2006. Nalbandian is a cagey player who can win big especially if he gets inside of his opponent's head. Can Nalbandian do the road work to give himself the best possible chance to win physically?
Federer may have a few questions to answer in 2007 and beyond. How does he stay motivated? What do you do when virtually every mountain has already been climbed? Federer does not seem bored by his success. Federer seems motivated to keep making history. These are good signs that Federer can keep his heart and mind focused on playing great tennis. Federer's recent wins over Roddick and Nadal seem to demonstrate that his mental game is only getting better. In the first match, he dug deep and survived the biggest server in the game putting 80% of his serves in play. In the second match, he beat his nemesis confirming that on surfaces other than clay even Nadal has to worry when he sees Federer on the other side of the net. Federer seems to be doing all of the right things in order to stay hungry. Great play by Nadal, Blake, Roddick and guys currently residing outside of the top 8 ought to aid Federer's motivation. So Federer himself, likely hopes that his fellow top players find the right answers to the questions that face them.
