Across The Net: Tennis' Upwardly Mobile
Posted by Dan Martin on 01.01.2007
Which ATP and WTA players have the best chances to take their games to a new level in 2007? I’ll take a shot at predicting in the final Across the Net of 2006!
Tennis like any other individual sport markets individuals and personalities rather than marketing teams or geographic pride. I pick my five best male and female bets for improvement in 2007. If stardom pans out for any of these players, expect them to become part of the ever changing face of tennis.
Top 2007 ATP Prospects (In alphabetical order)
1. Mario Ancic – The 6'5" Croatian is ranked #9 in the world and is the most successful practitioner of serve and volley tennis in today's game. He looked to be having a breakthrough year in 2006. Ancic reached the quarterfinals at both the French Open and Wimbledon along with winning a grass court event in Rotterdam. The fast hard courts of NY looked to be a good place for the hard serving, athletic and tall Croatian to make a serious Grand Slam run. Unfortunately a boating accident cost him his North American summer and the U.S. Open. Ancic recovered from injury nicely reaching the final at the China Open and then winning a title in St. Petersburg Russia. If Ancic stays healthy, he will be a factor on fast courts. His athleticism and volleying might allow him to have a nice run on clay as well. I'd love to see Ancic play Nadal on clay simply to see the contrast in styles of play. While he would likely lose to Nadal on clay, he'd also force Nadal to play a different style of tennis than is typically seen on clay.
2. Marcos Baghdatis – Aside from finishing 2006 ranked #12 in the world, Baghdatis reached the Australian Open final, the Wimbledon semifinals and won his first professional tournament in China. He also became part of the Agassi legend losing in five sets to Andre in N.Y. In many senses, Baghdatis had his breakthrough in 2006. However, his natural acumen for playing tennis cannot be denied. If he increases his tactical discipline, this lefty could finish 2007 inside of the top 5. His hands at the net were impressive for a non-serve and volley player. Baghdatis' fortunes could rise or fall with getting to the net more often. The talent is there, but so too is inconsistency. A rise from the already lofty heights of #12 in the world is by no means guaranteed, but Baghdatis is too talented not to include on this list.
3. Richard Gasquet – The world's 18th ranked player is much like Baghdatis – incredibly talented, but also inconsistent. Gasquet looked awful during the first 6 months of 2006. However, he rebounded by taking a grass court title in Nottingham. After that point, Gasquet crushed the competition reaching the Canadian Open final. He jumped on Roger Federer winning the first set 6-2, but could not finish Roger off. Gasquet then lost to Lleyton Hewitt in five sets in the U.S. Open round of 16. Gasquet can beat the best players in the game. He dominated Thomas Berdych and Andy Murray in Canada. However, until Gasquet beefs up his serve and increases his tactical discipline, he will not be a consistent top 10 player. He is not a tall player so he should not try to serve for a ton of aces, rather he should look at how Agassi served and develop a high percentage heavy first serve that is not easy to attack. Gasquet and Baghdatis are both exceptionally gifted and thus can make big things happen in 2007.
4. Fernando Verdasco – Spain's other left handed baseliner is quite different from Nadal. Both are fiery, but Verdasco plays more like a young Agassi than he does Nadal. Verdasco hits winners from all over the court and his talent froze Andy Roddick during their third round U.S. Open encounter. The two split the first four sets. Verdasco broke Roddick to open the fifth set and looked to be headed for a major upset. Instead, the wheels came off of his high risk game and Roddick took advantage. Verdasco is currently ranked 35th in the world, but his talent could carry him into the top ten. He and fellow Spaniard Nicholas Almagro look to be among the best challenges to Nadal's clay court supremacy. Unlike Almagro, Verdasco also seems to have a game that can be adapted to faster courts. One again increased tactical discipline could carry Verdasco into or at least near the top ten in 2007.
5. Stanislas Wawrinka – This 21 year old professional from Switzerland has the misfortune of playing in Roger Federer's shadow. Wawrinka was strong in 2006. He finished the year ranked #30 in the world and has no holes in his game. I got to see him from the front row at Masters Series Cincinnati and Wawrinka has a nice serve, solid ground strokes, is fit and tactically disciplined. He lacks the talent of his countryman Federer, but his game is both solid and workmanlike. Playing the percentages and being mentally tough will carry a player a long way. Wawrinka is unlikely to reach the top 10 in 2007 (or ever perhaps), but his game and approach to tennis are likely to carry him into the top 20 in the world.
Honorable mention - Dmitry Tursunov - He is ranked 22 in the world and is a power broker coming off of a big year. I have never seen him play so I can't comment about his prospects with any precision. I will make a point of watching him in 2007.
One last note – Ancic and Wawrinka are both tactically disciplined. Baghdatis, Gasquet and Verdasco can at times go off the rails and lose focus. Given that Agassi is now out of tennis, I would recommend that one of these three or perhaps Marat Safin hire Agassi's former coach Aussie Darren Cahill who also guided Lleyton Hewitt to the #1 ranking in 2001. Cahill is good at scouting opponents and his track record with Agassi and Hewitt speaks for itself. If he could instill tactical discipline in Baghdatis, Gasquet, Safin or Verdasco, I'd say the rest of the field would need to watch out.
The Best WTA Prospects for 2007 (alphabetical order)
1. Tatiana Golovin – Her game is very solid and when she is healthy she can be deadly. Golovin lost 7-6, 7-6 to Maria Sharapova at the U.S. Open. This was a better result than either Henin-Hardene or Mauresmo mustered. She can play offense and defense on the tennis court. If Golovin improves her retrieving ability, she could frustrate big hitters such as Sharapova in 2007. Patience will be key because she can also hit winners. Knowing when to keep the ball in play and when to go for broke will make or break her 2007.
2. Jelena Jankovic – Inexperience may have led to a mental meltdown vs. JHH in the U.S. Open semifinals. Had Jankovic played slightly better at the end of the second set she would have beaten JHH and had a crack at Sharapova in the final. Sports are not played on "ifs" so Jankovic had to settle for a semifinal finish and a lesson in gamesmanship from JHH. If Jankovic learns from this, she can be a big factor in 2007. If she remains mentally fragile, she will remain ranked inbetween 10th and 15th and go no higher in 2007.
3. Sania Mirza – India is an area where tennis might make huge in roads. Mirza is part of that equation. Her game is likely too limited to ever consistently reach the top ten. Mirza does however have a rocket forehand and a lot of charisma. If she can harness her forehand and dictate play to women ranked outside of the top 20, Mirza will likely reach the top 20 herself. That alone will make her and tennis more popular in India. Tactical discipline will tell the tale when it comes to Mirza reaching the top 20.
4. Nicole Vaidisova – This young Czech is 6'1", ranked 10th in the world and hits the cover off of the ball. She has a similar game to the 6'3" Sharapova, but appears to be the more naturally mobile of the two. Vaidisova, like Jankovic, lost a heart breaking Grand Slam semifinal in 2006. If she can become a dominant server and more mentally tough, Vaidisova will be ranked around 5th at the end of 2007. Limiting unforced errors will be the key to her progress.
5. Vera Zvonareva – This Russian is talented but also a victim of being mentally fragile. She did win the Wimbledon mixed doubles title and seemed to relax on the singles court after this showing. She won Cincinnati in July and could be headed for a big 2007 if she can keep her self-criticism and on court negativity to a minimum. In doubles she seems quite relaxed, thus she may be learning to not let nerves and losses of focus hamper her singles play. Zvonareva is currently ranked 24th in the world and could move into the top 15 if she makes the proper adjustments to her mental game.
Like more predictions these are likely to be very flawed. Also, I think the end goals for a player such as Gasquet is different than Warwinka or Vaidisova than Mirza. Each starts in different places and one may end up improving their ranking and still being behind a more talented player. I do think these ten players have a chance to make a mark on tennis in 2007. Mirza being a citizen of the world's second most populated nation may make her reaching the top 25 more important than one of the Russian brigade reaching the top 10. At any rate, these are the ten players I chose to profile. Thanks for the support and see you next year!
PS - How about the UK Wildcats winning their first bowl game in 22 years!!!
