Across The Net: Nadal’s Two Paths for 2007
Posted by Dan Martin on 01.08.2007
Rafael Nadal is securely #2 in the world, will he take steps toward #1 in 2007 or fall back into the field?
Rafael Nadal announced his presence on the men's tour with a win over world #2 Andy Roddick in the 2004 Davis Cup final. Even though the match was on clay in front of a Spanish crowd, Nadal avenged a one sided defeat at the 2004 U.S. Open with a mature four set win. 2005 looked to be a big year for the young Nadal.
He did not disappoint winning 11 titles in 2005 including the French Open and 4 Masters Series titles. Nadal ended 2005 with a stress fracture in his foot that caused him to miss the year end championships and the 2006 Australian Open.
Nadal's 2006 started with a bang. In his second tournament back, he defeated Roger Federer 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the Dubai final. Nadal then reached the semifinals of the Pan Pacific Masters Series event and was poised to return to his favored clay courts. Nadal set the all time clay court winning streak and notched two more finals wins over Roger Federer heading into the French Open. Nadal defended his title by beating Federer in four sets. It looked like Nadal was not only back in fuill form after his injury, but that he was also ready to duel Federer for the number one ranking.
Nadal reached the quarterfinals at The Queens Club grass court event and made it into Wimbledon with a weak draw in front of him. Nadal's draw opened up even more as 2004 and 2005 runner-up Andy Roddick and 2002 champion Lleyton Hewitt both lost early. Nadal headed into the final for a showdown with Roger Federer in which the winner would be considered #1 regardless of the computer computations. Federer took Nadal down in 4 sets. Still Nadal had to feel very confident after demonstrating that he could win on surfaces other than clay.
Nadal skipped the summer clay court circuit in what I would guess was an attempt to make an assault on the U.S. Open crown. He lost to Thomas Berdych in Canada. He looked shaky in Cincinnati, but reached the quarterfinals losing to Juan Carlos Fererro. Nadal worked his way through the U.S. Open draw to make his best result ever reaching the quarterfinals. Yet, some of his losses were to solid players that his consistent style would normally prevent any sort of upset. A few questions emerged.
Nadal's post U.S. Open schedule was also scaled back from 2005. I would guess this was to avoid the injuries that cost him the early portion of 2006. Nadal did reach the quarterfinals in Madrid and the semifinals of the Masters Cup. He also racked up losses to James Blake, Joachim Johanson, Thomas Berdych and Roger Federer. Nadal has now lost his last 6 matches against anyone named Berdych or Blake. Also, Federer has now beaten Nadal twice in a row and three of the last four matches they have played off of clay. Nadal clearly was #2 for 2006, but his form after July seemed to slip.
Nadal's 2007 hinges a great deal on what is about to happen at the Australian Open later this month. My gut says Nadal overplayed in 2005 and lost his health for the slam he is second most likely to win. I believe Nadal and his handlers came up with a strategy to cut his schedule in order to give him his best shot at the Australian Open in 2007. For all of Nadal's "ordinary" losses, he had his best Wimbledon and U.S. Open results in 2006. The hard courts in Australia are high bouncing and slow. They play a bit more like a clay court than the fast hard courts of North America. Furthermore, Nadal's supreme fitness make him a major threat in the Australian heat and joint destroying Rebound Ace hard courts.
Nadal reached the semifinals of an Australian Open tune up in India, but lost in straight sets to a solid but not spectacular Xavier Malisse. This loss fits the pattern that has plagued Nadal since Wimbledon. His losses to Berdych and Blake might be chalked up to bad match ups. His losses to Federer came against the man in tennis. On the other hand, his losses to Mikhail Youzhny, Juan Carlos Fererro, Joachim Johanson and Xavier Malisse seem to indicate that on faster surfaces players who take a few risks and shorten points by taking the net can beat Nadal.
If Nadal wins the Australian Open, he will be the reigning champion at two of the four Grand Slam events. This can certainly happen. His struggles aside, he is a threat to win any event he enters. Rafa is certainly a threat to win on a slower surface like the one found in Melbourne.
If Nadal fails to win the Australian Open, he will have to wait until Wimbledon to prove that he can win on surfaces other than clay. The odds are low that he will get such a soft draw at Wimbledon so it may be until September at the U.S. Open before Nadal could make a serious run at a non-clay court Grand Slam title.
Nadal is good enough on clay to hold his #2 ranking. The problem is that many men in the locker room may not be as intimidated by Nadal as they were even a year ago. If a player does not believe he can beat Nadal or Federer, he is likely to lose. Players that lose their fear of Nadal are likely to make every match he plays more difficult.
Nadal is at a turning point. His consistent grinding style works exceptionally will and likely locks up the clay court season for him. It also leaves Nadal open to exhaustion and injury. Nadal won Masters Series titles on outdoor and indoor hard courts in 2005 only to see a stress fracture in his foot derail him. If Nadal starts placing more pace on his serve, flattens out his ground strokes going for more winners and attempts to cut down the mileage of grinding opponents down, he runs the risk of losing his consistency. Nadal's clean tennis, incredible foot speed and willpower send a message that the opposition that they must win a point several times in order to actually earn a single point. Nadal trying to hit winners and aces means more errors and more second serves. Nadal's second serve is his biggest weakness. Thus, attempts to shorten matches by taking risks, force Nadal to go against the method of winning he has likely adopted since he was 13 or younger.
The Australian Open offers Nadal the chance to win on a slow surface other than clay and make a serious run at Federer's crown as #1. A victory in Australia keeps Nadal's rise on the same trajectory it has been since late 2004. A loss in Australia forces Nadal to consider retooling his game for faster surfaces or continuing to play clay court tennis in all instances. One path assures continued success on clay, but might undermine his own confidence and embolden the confidence of his opponents and make the French Open less than certain. The other path offers Nadal the chance to spare his body and mind the burden of being a human backboard, but it also would force Nadal to recreate his tendencies and patterns on the court. He is talented enough to transform his game, but it is a difficult thing for a professional to do. Rafael Nadal can simplify all of this by winning in Melbourne and continuing a more organic development of his game. Of course winning the Australian Open is not so easy. Nadal will have to win 7 three out of five set matches in the Australian heat and on a punishing surface. Still that seems less difficult than reinventing a game that has been forged over thousands of hours. If Nadal can impose his iron will on those hard courts, he is almost a co-favorite with Roger Federer because the surface and climate suit his game so well. If Nadal plays with a crisis of confidence, his results will likely be along the lines of the previous few months. Spain's Raging Bull may be at a moment of truth, but like his Davis Cup performance in 2004 Nadal will likely show he has the goods to be at the top of the tennis world.
