Across The Net: Australian Open - Quarterfinal Preview

Posted by Dan Martin on 01.23.2007

Both the men’s and women’s draw have gone from 128 players to 8. What can we expect to see?

First, I wish to apologize for posting one day later than normal. There was method in my madness. I wished to see the draws on each side reduce from 12 to 8. Given the quality of Murray vs. Nadal, I am glad I waited. Of course, the downside is that by the time this posts half of the semifinal spots will likely be filled on each side of the draw.

Men's Quarterfinals:
#1 Roger Federer vs. #7 Tommy Robredo: The Spaniard finished 2006 in the top 10 and is in the final 8 of the first major of 2007. He was also a former world #1 junior. Can he beat Federer? Doubtful. I can see this maybe going 4 sets if Robredo is on, but Federer on a hard court ought to move through to his 11th consecutive Grand Slam semifinal!

#6 Andy Roddick vs. Mardy Fish: Fish is unseeded, but has had injury problems. Fish and Roddick are childhood friends. Roddick won gut check matches vs. Marat Safin and vs. Mario Ancic. Roddick has dropped 4 sets to this point and perhaps is mentally and emotionally tired. Fish who won the silver medal at the 2004 Olympics and was runner-up to Roddick at the 2003 Masters Cup Cincinnati is capable of pulling an upset. If Roddick is mentally and emotionally drained, Fish stands a good chance of winning. Otherwise, Roddick and Federer face off in a blockbuster semifinal. I give Roddick an 80% chance of advancing.

#12 Tommy Haas vs. #3 Nikolay Davydenko: Davydenko beat Haas in the 2006 U.S. Open quarterfinals in five sets. Davydenko reached the quarters or further at the 2006 Australian, French and U.S. Opens. The world #3 is not an overwhelming player, but he rarely has bad losses. Haas is talented and injury prone. The longer this match goes the more it favors the Russian. This is as close to a 50-50 match as one will find in the quarters, but my gut says Davydenko solidifies his top five status by reaching the semifinals.

#2 Rafael Nadal vs. #10 Fernando Gonzalez: Nadal has to be quite pleased that James Blake was eliminated by Gonzo in straight sets. Nadal is 0-3 in his career vs. Blake, but is almost unstoppable vs. other clay court players. Gonzo has won a lot of hard court and indoor court matches over the past few years, he even reached the 2005 Wimbledon quarterfinals, but Gonzo is unlikely to put enough pressure on Nadal to make the surface a factor in his favor. Gonzalez is a power broker and can produce awesome winners, but he will need to take a lot of risks and hit a lot of winners to have a chance. Like the Hass-Davydenko match, Nadal benefits from a longer match because if he establishes his rhythm from the baseline. Gonzalez will have to simply hit through Nadal – not an easy task. I give Nadal an 85% chance of advancing.

Projected Semifinals: Federer vs. Roddick and Nadal vs. Davydenko
Roddick has a real shot to win this event, but the draw has not been kind to this point and it will only get tougher. Nadal is likely to beat Davydenko or Haas. A Roddick or Federer vs. Nadal final ought to be awesome. Since the final is likely to be played at night, Nadal's extreme fitness may not be as big of a factor as a daylight final, but any of the three could place an early claim on 2007 as their year. Federer is the king until someone proves otherwise, but Roddick and Nadal both have great chances. If Robredo, Fish, Davydenko, Haas or Gonzalez took the title, I'd be surprised.

Women's Quarterfinals:

#1 Maria Sharapova vs. Anna Chakvetadze: Sharapova ought to win in 2 sets. I am sure it could be a tough match, but I cannot see it going the distance.

#4 Kim Clijsters vs. #6 Martina Hingis: Clijsters has the right combination of power, mobility and consistency to diffuse Hingis' crafty and steady play. Power will be the difference and Clijsters ought to win in 2 sets, but it could go 3.

Serena Williams vs. #16 Shahar Peer: Talk about a match that is hard to pick! Williams pulled an upset of an emotionally fragile Nadia Petrova. Then Williams crushed an in form Jelena Jankovic. If she maintains the form she displayed vs. Jankovic, Serena could win the whole thing. If she reverts to some of her 2006 self, Peer might roll her in 2 sets. My guess (and it is just a guess) is that Williams rolls in 2 sets.

Nicole Vaidisova d. Lucie Safarova 6-1, 6-4: This all-Czech match ended while I was typing. Vaidisova is 6'1" and has all of the tools to be a Sharapova-type presence on tour. She is 2 inches shorter than Sharapova and this may help her mobility. The sky is the limit for the young Czech.

Projected Semifinals: Sharapova vs. Clijsters and Vaidisova (not projected anymore) vs. Serena Williams

My guess is that Clijsters plays enough defense to extend Sharapova to a third set and takes down the #1 seed. Vaidisova has the firepower to match Serena Williams. If Vaidisova is not in awe and if Serena is not in the zone, the young Czech moves into her first Grand Slam final. There I think Clijsters would win, but it could go either way. If these are the four semifinalists, it would be possible for any of the four to take the Australian Open. If Serena Williams wins the title, it will be a major shake-up of the women's tour. Williams won the 2005 Australian Open and due to injuries, personal tragedy and other distractions has more or less been AWOL for two years. To win a Grand Slam after 2 years of indifferent tennis would be a shocking statement about the lack of true depth on the women's tour. Still, it would be a fun story even if it implied that the women's tour at any given time only has 3 or 4 true contenders.

Match of the Tournament (to this point): Nadal d. Andrew Murray 6-7, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1. This was a match with big implications. If Nadal lost in the round of 16, rumors of his demise would have continued. If Murray had won, he would be touted as a man on the rise toward the top 5. Given that both 20 year olds were playing for a lot, Nadal's victory for now holds off Murray as a peer in more than age. Nadal serving at 1-2 in the fourth set saved break points and likely preserved his 2007 Australian Open. Murray had multiple chances to push the fifth set back on serve with Nadal leading 2-0. One can only look forward to future matches between these two. Nadal who has lost his last 6 matches vs. James Blake and Thomas Berdych. With his win vs. Murray along with Blake and Berdych's losses, Nadal is poised to make a serious bid for the Australian Open title. At the same time, he was a point away from being down 2 sets to 1 and down a break in the fourth set. Nadal had the goods when the chips were down.