Across The Net: 41-1 Federer Goes Down 7-5, 6-2
Posted by Dan Martin on 03.12.2007
Roger Federer had not lost a match since early last August. He lost again March 11, 2007. What might any of this mean?
Roger Federer lost 4 matches in 2005. He lost 5 matches in 2006; 4 to Rafael Nadal and 1 to Andy Murray. Federer now stands at 12-1 in 2007 after losing 7-5, 6-2 to Guillermo Canas 7-5, 6-2.
On one hand such a loss, could be chalked up to "he has to lose sometime," but the loss came at a Masters Series Event. Federer won 3 Masters Series events in 2004, 4 in 2005 and 4 again in 2006. Federer was also runner-up at 2 Masters Series events in 2006. A loss in the second round after receiving a first round bye is out of the ordinary at a minimum. In fact, such an early and one-sided loss seems downright out of place. Federer held match points in two of his 4 2005 losses and in 1 of his 2006 losses. He was 2 points from victory in another one of his 2005 losses. Federer had reached the finals of 24 of his previous 25 events. Yes, an early straight set loss is indeed an odd feeling for Federer these days. So what happened one might ask?
Give Canas His Due:
Canas has already won one title in 2007 and is a talented player who is rested from the grind of the tour due to serving a substance related suspension from the ATP in 2006. Canas hits heavy shots from the baseline and is a top 10 talent.
Burnout:
Could Federer be burned out on being #1? Winning all of the time and playing at a high level day in and day out can take a toll. Federer's results from Masters Cup 2003 through Dubai 2007 have been nothing short of amazing. 2007 still looks pretty solid for Federer – winning his 10th Grand Slam title without losing a set and winning in Dubai one week ago. Federer can still finish 2007 winning over 90% of his matches as he did in 2004-2006. Still such a loss might mean that Federer and the pack are not as far apart as they have been since November 2003 when Federer swept the best players in the world and announced his dominance. Tennis normally has a set of 3-6 top players that depending upon surfaces and health are able to cash in the biggest prizes. Is that the era tennis is approaching now?
Overreaction(?):
Roger Federer was in Dubai one week ago today and lost after traveling from the U.A.E. to Southern California. Federer lost to a rested and talented player seeking to announce his resurgence. Canas had also played qualifying matches and a first round match. Federer is 12-1 and still has a reasonable chance at winning four consecutive Grand Slam titles. Also, as important as Masters Series events are, no one confuses them with Grand Slam titles. In 2004 and 2006, Federer lost in the second round of Masters Series Cincinnati and won the U.S. Open. At 12-1 with two titles, Federer will still be having the best 2007 heading into Masters Series Miami. Also, Federer will be rested and motivated prior to that event. If Federer goes down early in Miami, then we will have more to investigate. 41 wins is tied for the fourth longest in Open era history (1969-present). He had to lose sometime, unless he loses early again in Miami…
Rankings Implications:
The rest of the field has a great chance to make up ground on Roger Federer in the world rankings. Masters Series titles are worth 500 entry ranking points. Federer won the Pan Pacific title the past three years. If Andy Roddick or Rafael Nadal were to win the title, they would basically gain 500 points on Federer. Roger leads Nadal by 3800 points and leads Roddick by 5400 points. Neither are that close, but 500 points is a big chunk of rankings points.
Random Connections:
Roger Federer nearly matched John McEnroe's winning percentage in 1984 heading into his final match of 2005. The result was a loss at the hands of David Nalbandian. Roger Federer was one match away from tying John McEnroe's career best 42 match winning streak. The result was a loss to Canas. The lesson - leave Johnny Mac's records alone!
Conspiracy Theory?:
Federer practiced this week with and played sets with Pete Sampras at the Sampras estate. Perhaps, Pete put a hex on Roger or gave him the evil eye to slow Roger's assault on history. Maybe he just poisoned him, but it is unlikely that the King of Swing would resort to culinary chicanery or the occult in dealing with Federer. They seem to be friends.
Next Sunday, Across the Net will analyze the results of Indian Wells on the men's and women's side. I thought I would have nothing to write about this week, but Canas and Federer gave me some copy.
PS – Hopefully the University of Kentucky Wildcats will make some noise in the NCAA tournament. Georgetown looks to be a legitimate final four threat for the first time since 1996.
