411 Mania's 2007 Cricket World Cup Preview
Posted by Andy Bracken on 03.17.2007
Direct from the sunny Caribbean comes the 2007 ICC Cricket World Cup.
Note: Technical difficulties have led to this being posted a few days late. The review was written prior to the start of the tournament, so excuse any predictions and comments that may have been rendered obselete over the first few days of the cup.
World Cup Preview
Four years ago, the Cricket World Cup was thought to be a two horse race. Australia were the undisputed world number one, and the defending champions. South Africa, the perennial bridesmaids since their readmission to international cricket, were confident, due to the inherent suitability of their all-seam attack on their home ground green tops.
Half of that assumption came true. Australia were devastating, winning games from impossible situations on the back of the individual brilliance of Symonds, Bevan, Bichel and McGrath, while South Africa had a tournament to forget, failing to reach the knockout stages and costing Shaun Pollock the captaincy.
The final became an almighty exclamation mark on an unprecedented unbeaten tournament for the Australians, with a Ponting and Martyn led 359/2 being way out of the reach of the distant runners-up, India. The tournament added another level to the mystique of the dominance of the Australian team.
Until the end of January this year, this year's World Cup, to be played in the idyllic Caribbean, looked like being something of the same. Australia, fresh off a win in last years' Champion's Trophy and a devastating whitewash of the Ashes Series, had made it clear that they considered defending the World Cup to be the third part of a trifecta of goals for this season.
After the first half of the CB Series in Australia, things seemed to be going to plan. Then the unthinkable happened: Australia forgot how to win a game.
After their loss to England in the CB Series finals, and the utter demolition at the hands of the New Zealanders in the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy, the Australians have lost whatever remained of their aura of invincibility, along with their coveted number one ranking. Coming into the first Cricket World Cup to be held in the West Indies, any of eight teams now have a legitimate chance of taking home the highest prize in international one-day cricket.
My name is Andy Bracken, and I am going to be covering the 2007 Cricket World Cup- possibly the most open Cup in history.
The Tournament
The 2007 ICC Cricket World Cup to be contested by sixteen nations, in four groups:
Group A
South Africa
Australia
Scotland
Netherlands
Group B
Sri Lanka
India
Bangladesh
Bermuda
Group C
New Zealand
England
Kenya
Canada
Group D
Pakistan
West Indies
Zimbabwe
Ireland
All teams will play each other team in their group once. The top two teams in each group will progress to the "Super 8" stage, whilst the trailing two teams in each group will be eliminated. During the Super 8 stage, all teams will play each other qualifying team with the exception of the team they faced in the group stage.
At the end of the Super 8 stage, the top team will play the team ranked fourth in one Semi Final, while the second and third placed teams play in the other Semi Final. The other four teams will be eliminated. The 2007 Cricket World Cup final will be contested by the winners of the two Semi Finals.
The Venues
The CWC will be played in a record nine different countries, with the Caribbean Island nations of Jamaica, St Kitts & Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, St Lucia, Barbados, Grenada, Trinidad & Tobago, and St Vincent & The Grenadines, along with the South American mainland country of Guyana all hosting matches.
The arenas are small by international standards, with spectator capacities in the 10,000-28,000 range. The playing surfaces are similarly in the smaller range, compared to some other international venues. Short boundaries would suggest that high scores- particularly in the last ten overs- will be common.
The pitches vary dramatically between grounds (as opposed to the smell of ganja in the air, which will be as consistent throughout the crowds as day following night), but as most have been relayed recently in anticipation of the tournament, which could provide the seamers early encouragement, depending on the final preparations. If they do move around at the start of the tournament though, it will be fleeting, with the tracks baking hard in the sun to be flatter than a witch's tit by the middle of the competition.
The finals will be played at the biggest of all host grounds, Kensington Oval in Barbados.
The Teams(Number denotes world ranking)
1. South Africa Group ‘A'
Graeme Smith (Captain), Jacques Kallis (Vice Captain), Loots Bosman, Mark Boucher, AB de Villiers, Herschelle Gibbs, Andrew Hall, Justin Kemp, Charl Langeveldt, Andre Nel, Makhaya Ntini, Robin Peterson, Shaun Pollock, Ashwell Prince, Roger Telemachus
South Africa have been devastatingly good over the past year or so. After their remarkable (read: arsey) 438 run chase against the Australians in March, they have taken all before them, dispatching both India and Pakistan with ease in recent series. They rely heavily on their seam attack, and the all-round talents of Boucher, Pollock and Kallis. The new world number one, they will be looking to shake their "bridesmaids" tag, and avenge their disappointing 2003 Cup.
Weighing heavily against the Saffies will be the fact that they will be fielding a bowling side that consists of nothing but right arm medium quicks, on pitches that won't offer them a lick of help on grounds that have short, easily clearable boundaries. If they run into a batsman with his eye in (which, with the power in one-day cricket today, is a safer bet than Jaques Kallis having a can of hair-spray in his kitbag), they will be nothing more than cannon fodder.
Key Players: Shaun Pollock will be invaluable on the variable bounce of the West Indian wickets, and Gibbs must fire at the top of the order to offset the slower scoring rates of the more consistent Kallis and Prince.
Weakness: Spin bowling, or more accurately, the lack thereof. Peterson is a long way from being world class, and when your opening batsman (Smith) has a good claim to the mantle of the team's premier spinner, you know you need your pace attack to fire consistently. Also, there is still a major question mark over their temperament, especially against the Australians. Also, the traditional narrow throat of the South African team means that a major tournament choke is never a bad bet.
Dangerman: Justin Kemp. The biggest grounds in the world aren't big enough for this gifted hitter, and if he gets going on the smaller Caribbean grounds, no target is out of his reach. Andre Nel could also be considered a "dangerman", as he always seems to be an inch away from snapping and going mental at the batsmen for some percieved slight. Maybe this will be the tournament that he finally gets fed up and swings at someone with a stump. With the way he snarls and carries on, I'm convinced that it is only a matter of time.
2. Australia Group ‘A'
Ricky Ponting (Captain), Adam Gilchrist (Vice Captain), Nathan Bracken, Michael Clarke, Brad Haddin, Matthew Hayden, Brad Hodge, Brad Hogg, Michael Hussey, Mitchell Johnson, Stuart Clark (replacing Brett Lee), Glenn McGrath, Andrew Symonds, Shaun Tait, Shane Watson
Australia are facing the reality of having a team ranked above them for the first time in a long time. They are still a class team, and will go into the tournament with short odds, but they lack the aura of the 2003 team.
They have also faced the prospect of having half of their first choice side under injury clouds. The dreadlocked whiteboy (sigh- never, NEVER a good look) Andrew Symonds is out for the first half of the tournament at best (and will probably be restricted even if he does make the side after that), Ponting has a continuing problem with his back (as well as a new one with his hip), Clarke seems to have a new niggling injury even month, Hayden has broken his toe, and is in serious doubt for the tournament, Lee has gone down with an ankle, and Watson is only just back from injury, and is due for his next monthly ailment any day. Add this to the fact that the human wing-nut Adam Gilchrist has made it clear that he'll prioritise the family over the opening games of the Cup, and the Australians could conceivably be looking for anyone with a yellow shirt and a corked hat in the crowd to make up the numbers.
I still wouldn't write them off, though. They proved in the last CWC (when they were missing Lehmann due to a racial brain explosion, Bevan with his Watson-esque injury record and Warne with his "Mum gave ‘em to me" drug debacle) that they can close ranks and get the job done when faced with adversity. They'll be at the pointy end of the field.
They will have added impetus with the impending retirement of the always-polite-and-friendly Glenn McGrath, and as is the Australian way, they like giving their greats a fairytale ending.
Key Players: Ponting, Hussey and Hogg. If they fire, Australia will be extremely hard to beat. Hussey has gone from the fringe to the forefront in seconds flat, and gives them the ability to do just about anything with the bat. He will be a valuable hitter in the late overs, and exudes class at the wicket. As for Ponting- the last CWC final showed that when the little Tasmanian decides to take a game by the scruff of the neck, no one can stop him. Hogg is more of a left-field choice, but on wickets that will turn sharpy, and a wrong un that no one in the world seems to be able to pick, he shapes as being a vital cog in the Australian attack. If he gets it wrong, on the other hand, those short boundaries could make for an expensive spell or two.
Weaknesses: Defending scores, and injuries. The four highest run chases in history have all been at Australia's expense in the last year. If they can't find a way to defend their totals, they might become pretty vulnerable. With Lee gone, and Symonds out for the early stages, they can't afford another bowler to go down, or they could be in real trouble. McGrath's advancing years could make him a pretty big injury risk, too.
Dangerman: Shaun Tait. Tait will either run through a side, or he'll go for plenty- there are rarely any inbetweens. If he strikes his best form, he could be the player of the tournament.
3. New Zealand Group 'C'
Stephen Fleming (Captain), Daniel Vettori (Vice Captain), Craig McMillan, Scott Styris, Brendan McCullum, Lou Vincent, Jacob Oram, Darryl Tuffey, Shane Bond, James Franklin, Peter Fulton, Jeetan Patel, Ross Taylor, Mark Gillespie, Michael Mason
New Zealand enter this year's CWC with perhaps their greatest chance of success ever. They have a team that is talented, settled and led well by their mercurial captain, Steven Fleming. More importantly, they enter the tournament riding a wave of confidence, after taking down Australia in the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy is extraordinary fashion, with a ten wicket opening victory backed up by two successful 330-plus run chases. They always enjoy beating their cross-Tasman rivals, and rest assured, the chully-buns were full and out in force after the whitewash.
They have a solid attack for any conditions, with their spearhead Shane Bond able to run through any batting line up on the planet on any surface, and the best one-day spinner in the world in the slightly nerdy looking Daniel Vettori.
As they showed during their recent home series, they have the batsmen to chase down any target that they are set, with hitting power throughout the order. No matter what an opponent might set them, they will go in knowing that they have the personnel and the game plan to win.
Key Players: Their hitters. Oram, Vincent, McMillan, McCullum, Taylor and Styris can (and, more importantly, do) all clear the ropes on a regular basis. Should their batting order maintain the form that they have found at the best possible time, they will be difficult for anyone to stop.
Weaknesses: In a very even side, the only real weakness is their second and third seamer spots. Franklin is average at best, and Tuffey hasn't been a regular part of the setup for a long while. The could be expensive if they don't play above themselves.
Dangerman: Scott Styris. With so many batsmen in form and impossible to leave out, they are going to go into their matches very top heavy, and will therefore need to get ten serviceable overs from both Oram and Styris. If Styris bowls well, they will be able to bat down to nine, which will be a huge advantage- and he won‘t find pitches that suit his bowling more than the irregularly bouncing green tops that he‘ll find in the Caribbean.
4. Pakistan Group 'D'
Inzamam-Ul-Haq (Captain), Mohammed Yousuf (Vice Captain), Azhar Mahmood (replacing Abdul Razzaq), Younis Khan, Shoaib Malik, Mohammed Sami (replacing Shoaib Akhtar), Imran Nazir, Kamran Akmal, Rana Naved-Ul-Hasan, Mohammed Hafeez, Iftikhar Anjum, Umar Gul, Yasir Arafat (replacing Mohammed Asif), Danish Kaneria
Pakistan have been true to their historical form- that being completely unpredictable on the field, and surrounded by controversy off it. In the past year, they have attained the dubious honour of being the first team to forfeit a test match (and somehow managed to have the ICC hold the umpire responsible for the whole debacle, apparently due to the fact that he actually followed the rules that he was contracted to uphold), had two of their team test positive to having performance enhancing drugs in their bodies (and somehow managed to absolve the players of any guilt, for reasons that still baffle me), and had one of their players have a barney with the team coach in public view.
Predictably, all of this controversy had been blown off as being either minor, or being someone else's fault.
Regardless, they have a side that has the capacity to dominate or capitulate in equal measures, and will be dangerous to anyone they face. They are led by the potato-like Inzamam, who, while being an enormous liability in the field, has a tight reign on his troops. They have record breaking Mohammed Yousuf leading the batting order, with Afridi adding tremendous hitting power at either end of the innings.
On paper, they have the bowling attack that should be the envy of every other team in the tourney, but doubts remain on the availability of their two key strike bowlers, Shoaib and Asif, and the effectiveness of their spinner Kaneria.
Losing Razzaq leaves a huge hole. He is supremely talented, combining Afridi-like hitting power with genuine technique, and highly underrated medium pacers. His replacement, Azhar Mahmood, is good, but in no way covers Razzaq's abilities.
All in all, I can't see them being able to remain consistent for the two months of the CWC, and while they'll cause some headaches, I don't rate them as a chance to win.
At least they know that they, and not the umpires, control any game that they play. No umpire who wants to keep his job will have the balls to challenge them- look what happened to the last guy who did that...
Key Players: Yousuf and Akmal. Razzaq has the same hitting power as Afridi, but adds a superior temperament and much better consistency to the slashing blade, and as I have said earlier, the short boundaries mean that this will be a hitter's tournament. Yousuf will be relied upon to do a huge part of his team's scoring, and if Ol' Beardy doesn't have a good cup (which, I should add, I highly doubt- the guy is class) Pakistan will struggle to make an impact. Kamran Akmal could be the real key for the Pakis- he has been in awful recent form both with bat and gloves, but if he can find a way out of his slump, he has the ability to add another dimension to a suspect batting order.
Weaknesses: Long and varied. For starters, they seem to be short of a wristwatch in the dressing rooms, and thus don't know when their tea break is over and they should get their backsides back on the field. Then again, I daresay that it would take a brave man to try and drag big Inzy away from his afternoon tea before he's good and finished. (Cheap shot!)
But really, Inzamam is the antithesis of what a modern one-day player should be. He is downright poor in the field (it appears that he bolts his feet to the ground upon the commencement in play, such is his refusal to move at all to field a ball), and is a shadow of his former self with the bat. Shahid "The Ballerina" Afridi seems to be under the impression that as soon as he gets twenty runs (which usually means facing about 8 balls) his job is done, and Akmal seems to have forgotten how to catch a ball- a slight problem for the side's only wicketkeeper. Kaneria hasn't been a part of their one-day plans for the last couple of years, and his captain has been openly disdainful of his potential in the shortened form of the game. That can't be good for your confidence, just ask England's Chris Read.
Dangerman: The doctor who collects their urine samples. After travelling to London for "injury treatment" (read: clandestine drug testing out of the view of the pesky WADA people) Pakistan was forced to drop Shoaib and Asif from the squad. Unfortunately, the ICC made it clear that they would test both players at the CWC,and if they tested positive under ICC rules, the Pakistan board wouldn't have been able to sweep it under the carpet like they did a couple of months ago. I don't know exactly how, but I'm sure that it's actually all Darryll Hair's fault.
The beaten finalists four years ago, India come into this years CWC in familiar territory- as a team that is great on paper, but seems to lack application on the field.
They have a top order that is capable of absolute brilliance, with Tendulkar, Sehwag, Dravid and Ganguly all being seasoned, world class batsmen. Unfortunately, all four have been short of their best in recent times, with Ganguly only just returning to the team after losing his place (and the captaincy) at the behest of coach Greg Chappell. Sehwag is also on the return, after suffering a precipitous loss of form from his heady heights early in the decade. Their keeper, the mercurial MS Dhoni, has risen to being ranked the second best ODI atsman in the world at the moment, and anchors what can be an awesome line up.
With Kumble (in his last ODI tournament) and Harbhajan in the squad they have a top flight spin bowling attack, which can mask the lack of talent they have in their fast bowling stocks. Pathan, Zaheer, Sreesanth and Agarkar all are a level below the best, and will therefore need to operate under a pack mentality to have much influence.
Pathan is particularly vital, as he is a class all-rounder, capable of batting at three and opening the bowling when in form, but being somewhat of a liability when he's not. If he has a good tournament, he will solve a lot of problems for his captain.
Sehwag is another vital cog that has been recently missing. Capable of decimating any attack, he has been accused of not being as dedicated as he should be, and has been dropped from recent series. Should he come back with a vengeance, he will send shudders up the spine of opposing bowlers. When Sehwag is on, there isn't a field that you can set to stop him.
Looking at the squads, India should be rated as a far better chance than they actually are. Unfortunately, I don't see them being capable of matching the Australians or South Afrricans (or the Kiwis for that matter), and they are going to need a lot of luck to progress too far into the knockout rounds.
Key Players: Sehwag and Tendulkar. They could conceivably open together throughout the tournament, and if they find form, they could put games out of their opponents reach right off the bat.
Weaknesses: Fast bowling. They have quicks that are eminently hittable, and they will come across batsmen emboldened by short boundaries and fielding restrictions. They are going to need to be on top of their game, otherwise the could put their team in a hole that not even the class of Tendulkar, Dravid and Sehwag can dig them out of.
Dangerman: MS Dhoni. He is as good as his ranking suggests, and is primed for a big tournament as the form wicketkeeper batsman in the world. He has the talent to be the player of the tourney.
Any side that features the blistering all out attack of Sanath Jayasuriya and the genius of Muttiah Muralitharan is a capable adversary. Sri Lanka are a definite chance in this tourney.
While he is approaching the twilight of his venerable career, Jayasuriya is still one of the finest exponents of the tactic that he created- the opening pinch hitter. While pretty much every team has tried to duplicate his aggression he has kept doing what he does, and on a regular basis.
He is far from being a lone hand in his side, though. Kumara Sangakkara has developed into being truly world class, along with Captain Mahela Jayawardene. Marvan Attapattu plays the sheet anchor role well, and Russell Arnold has a fine record in the lower middle order clean up position.
Sri Lanka's bowling stocks, once a real weakness, has a good look about it. The aheless Chaminda Vaas is still the premier medium pacer in world cricket (an art that is inexplicably out of fashion at the moment), an his control and variation is going to be invaluable on the low wickets of the Caribbean. Nothing needs to be said about Murali, who can dismiss any batsman in the world at any time during their innings. They are ably backed up by the highly unconventional roundarm slinger, Lasith Malinga, who consistently surprises batsmen with his unexpected control and lightening pace.
As I said earlier, Sri Lanka have a real chance of knocking off some more highly fancied teams in this CWC, and will be a dangerous sleeper throughout the tournament.
Key Players: Mahela Jayawardene and Kumara Sangakkara. The two world class batsmen in the side will be crucial to the stability of the Sri Lankan middle order, and if they have a good cup, they could lead their nation to something special.
Weaknesses: Who is going to keep? Sangakkara has been relieved of his keeping duties in deference to his vital batting, but Jayawardene is not a true ODI keeper. If they persist with Jayawardene behind the stupms, they may be playing with fire.
Dangerman: Jayasuriya. Players like the little blaster get better as they get older, and at the ripe old age of 37, and with conditions taylor made for him, he could well be saving his finest hour for the end. If he gets a hold of an attack, he can definitely win games off his own bat.
7. England Group 'C'
Michael Vaughn (Captain), Andrew Flintoff (Vice Captain), Paul Collingwood, Andrew Strauss, Jimmy Anderson, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Jamie Dalrymple, Liam Plunkett, Sajid Mahmood, Ed Joyce, Jon Lewis, Paul Nixon, Monty Panesar, Ravinder Bopara
Sigh. I strongly considered not even bothering to review the English side. Aside from their inexplicable CB Finals series, they have been nothing short of dismal. Unfortunately, I have very little doubt that their return to form will be as short-lived as it was unexpected.
From the top of the order to the bottom, the English side is full of questions. Their talismanic captain, Michael Vaughn, has a pretty much crippled knee, but such is the lack of faith they have in his replacements that the English management seem willing to let him take the field even on one leg.
Flintoff was insipid during the test series, and Coach Duncan Fletcher has made it clear that he will take over the captaincy only if no other option presents. Unfortunately, the only really viable option, opening batsman Andrew Strauss, has been so horribly out of form that adding the burden of captaincy is really not an option. Needless to say, Vaughn will be playing unless his leg actually falls off.
Pietersen should be a shining light, but he wouldn't have made too many friends within the team with his comments after he went home from Australia injured. He openly admitted to being relieved to be leaving the tour early, and when asked about his team ethic, he replied, "if I was a selfish player, I would have brought up the fact that I had done my part, scoring 420 runs and averaging 60." So, in defending himself from the opinion that he was in business for himself rather than the team, he confirmed that he thought that he had pulled his weight, and that his team mates had not. Not exactly the best way to ingratiate yourself with your team mates. Hey- at least he'll have his rather rootable girlfriend on tour to keep him company should his teammates decline the opportunity to break bread with him.
Collingwood started the tour with excellent innings, and then went into a slump, before emerging with a dominating performance in the finals of the CB Series. If he is on, he is capable of anything, but his form seems to come and go with alarming regularity, much like his AFL namesake.
There is no respite even in the wicket keeping position. At the start of the Ashes Series, Chris Read was the incumbent, and had performed well for his country. Before the first test, Duncan Fletcher carried on with his nonsensical campaign to pick players for their second string ability, rather than based on the quality of their performances in their primary role. With this idiotic theory in mind, he dropped Read in favour of Geraint Jones, who was swamped by the pressure and the negative press that emanated from Fletcher's decision, and lost all form. Unfortunately, Fletcher's obvious lack of confidence in Read caused a drop in his form and enthusiasm, leaving England in the position of having their top two keepers being mentally damaged.
(He pretty much did the same thing, but to a lesser degree, with spinners Monty Panesar and Anthony Giles. Luckily, Panesar has the confidence of Ron Jeremy in a room full of virgins, and came out unscathed. The fact that Fletcher has seriously harmed the careers of both of these young wicket keepers means that there is no way that he should keep his job after the Cup. Frankly, his man-management is an absolute disgrace.)
The solution was to draft in the 36 year old, certifiable nutter Paul Nixon. Nixon obviously offers no long term solution, but his enthusiasm has been a boon to the demoralised English team. Apparently, his enthusiasm is infectious, and I think it has had a real effect on England's late resurgence.
As for the bowling, they have a good spinner (no, he's definitely not great yet, but he is a step in the right direction from the depressingly average Giles) in Panesar, and Flintoff is a true strike paceman. Behind those two, though is a gaping hole.
Mahmood is erratic to the point where England fans will long for the relative consistency of Harmison, and Plunkett and Lewis will surround occasional brilliant spells with a sea of crap. The comically named Dalrymple is a decent ODI spinner, and Collingwood is serviceable, but nothing more.
I certainly don't rate the English much of a chance. They might get lucky in a couple of games, but short of a bona fide miracle, they won't win the Cup.
Key Players: Flintoff and Strauss. If they are playing well, they transform this side from awful to somewhat competitive. They will need to have the tournament of their lives to give their nation a chance.
Weaknesses: At the risk of being unfairly harsh, their weakness can probably be best described as "cricket". They have many flaws down the list, and will need to be a very tight knit unit to challenge.
Dangerman: Collingwood. He has shown in Australia that he can bat and bowl his side to victory when in form. Hopefully, he'll be able to continue his rich vein of form.
8. West Indies Group 'D'
Brian Lara (Captain), Shivnarine Chanderpaul, Chris Gayle, Ramnaresh Sarwan, Marlon Samuels, Cory Collymore, Dwayne Bravo, Ian Bradshaw, Dwayne Smith, Jerome Taylor, Denesh Ramdin, Darren Powell, Devon Smith, Lendl Simmons, Keiron Pollard
The hosts, while rated lowly, will surprise many in this Cup. This will be the only chance they have for a long time to contest the Cup on home soil, and they will be primed to make the most of it.
The problem with the West Indies side of the past few years has been that the young players that have been identified haven't been pressured by a strong second tier of players, so competition for places has been almost non-existent. Because of this, motivation has been similarly low, which has meant that the raw talent hasn't developed to the extent of other teams.
The important part of that theory, though, is that the raw talent definitely does exist in their team. Chris Gayle is definitely world class, as is Sarwan (in the ODI arena, at least) and Samuels. Bravo, Samuels, Taylor, Ramdin and Smith are all extremely talented players, and with the experience of Chanderpaul, Collymore, Bradshaw and especially their Captain, all-time great Brian Lara, they have the basis for a strong unit.
The other great problem with the Calypso kings has been the stability of their team management. Through protracted battles between the players association and the WICB, they have had more team walkouts and near walkouts than any side could stand while still performing on the field. Hopefully, having the CWC at home for the first time will bring together the different factions for the good of Caribbean cricket- because if this doesn't do it, then the West Indies cricket team has no long term future.
I doubt that they have the cattle to win the Cup, but they'll definitely be competitive.
Key Players: Gayle, Chanderpaul and Lara. If they fire, they will provide a backbone that will allow the contributions from the bit players to form a solid team effort. If they don't, they will lack the firepower that they'll need to compete.
Weaknesses: Defending totals. They don't have the bowling firepower to blast out teams for low scores, so if they bat first and don't score big, they'll be in serious trouble.
Dangerman: Chris Gayle. As laconic as you will find, Gayle is built in the Jayasuriya mould, and can destroy anyone at the top of the order, as he proved in the Champions Trophy, among others. His bowling is hugely underrated as well, and his skidding offspin will form an integral part of the attack.
The Rest
No, I'm not going to bother reviewing the chances of the minnows. They won't win, and in all fairness, they are having a nice holiday in the Caribbean punctuated by a few games of cricket.
I have no issue with including a few minor countries in the finals, but to suggest that they are doing anything more than just making up the numbers is a little disingenuous. So, out of respect to the minnows' players, I'll leave them out of this review with a hearty "good luck and have fun".
Predictions
I'll get this out of the way early- this tournament is far too open to have any confidence in my predictions, but I'll give it a try anyway.
I would be very surprised if the Super 8 isn't the eight teams I have reviewed above. The last couple of CWCs have had a surprise or two make it to the second stage, but both the 2003 CWC in Africa and the 1999 CWC in the sub-continent were, for various reasons, affected by forfeits which gave some of the lesser teams free points, and deprived some of the established teams easy wins. Barring some major incident in the Caribbean, that won't be the case this year.
If I was going to pick an upset for the Super 8, I would have suggested that Pakistan would be the most vulnerable. With the way the groups have been drawn, though, the only way that Pakistan won't make the second stage would be if they lose to either Zimbabwe or Ireland, which I don't see happening. Possibly the only real chance for an upset is in Group ‘B', with Sri Lanka, India and the fast improving Bangladesh all fighting it out. Sri Lanka have a strong side, and India generally play well when they are the on-field bullies, so this is equally unlikely.
I think that South Africa will top Group ‘A', followed by Australia, Sri Lanka will beat India to lead Group ‘B', New Zealand will head England at the top of Group ‘C', and the West Indies will lead Pakistan in Group ‘D'.
So, my picks for the Super 8 is pretty conservative.
As for the Semi Finals, things get a bit more open. I think that Australia is a lock for one of the four spots, recent form notwithstanding. They are too good a side, and more importantly they know how to win big games. They'll be there or thereabouts.
The rest of field is a lot less definite. I doubt that Pakistan will make it to the knockout rounds, and you can take England out of the mix as well. Pakistan are too far into a self-destruct phase to threaten, and frankly, England is just not good enough to win something like this.
That leaves five teams fighting it out for three spots, and to be honest, I wouldn't really be surprised if any of them get there.
I'll go out on a limb and say that I think that the West Indies will pull it together and make the semis. They will be fuelled by pride, and they do have a talented side, with genuine match winners. You can bet that Lara will be itching to make his only home CWC a good one, and world cricket knows that when Lara applies himself, he can do anything.
New Zealand is my third pick for the Semis. They are a strong unit, and they are confident and settled, and they are led very well. That leaves one spot.
South Africa, Sri Lanka and India are all very good sides, but in the Caribbean, I have to put the sub-continental sides ahead. Without a decent spinner, South Africa are going to be too one-dimensional to be able to match the others, regardless of their current ranking.
That leaves Sri Lanka and India, and out of those two, it has to be Sri Lanka. They are playing well, and they have, tactically, the best coach in the world in Tom Moody. He'll have them following a game plan for each opposition side that will give them a solid chance.
So, Australia, West Indies, New Zealand and Sri Lanka get the nod, with India and South Africa extremely close behind. And yes, I realise that I have left out the top ranked side, but I think for good reason.
After the semis, it becomes a lottery, as any side can have a day out and win against any other side. I'll pick Australia and Sri Lanka for the finals (with very little confidence, I might add), with Australia taking their third CWC in a row.
In Closing
So, that is my view of the 2007 Cricket World Cup. The bat will rule over the ball, and any spinner (or change up bowler) that has a good tournament will give his side a major chance.
I will be back after the first stage of the Cup, where I'll be reviewing the action to that point and previewing the next stage. Until then, enjoy the cricket.
