U.S Masters Golf 2007 – Staff Roundtable
Posted by on 04.04.2007
Can anyone tame the Tiger at his favourite course? Can a European break the never-ending major drought? Find out how the 411 staff thinks one of the world’s most prestigious sporting tournaments will pan out. One Click Away.
The first major of the year is upon us, and along with the British Open, it's the biggest individual prize in golf. Alleged rivals Mickelson and Woods have exchanged the famous green jacket in recent years, and the smiles were faker than Pammy's upper half.
The beautiful Augusta course will be ever-present once again, and extra yardage and trickier pin positions will make even the classiest of swingers need their A game.
The contributors for this roundtable are:
A man who once did eighteen holes on a stag weekend, apparently: Ian Wright
I love it. My old man got me into the game, and tournaments like this and the British Open made me want to start playing the game as a kid. When I was at school, I used to watch it in bed at night, because of the time difference, and it was just great sporting drama, year in year out. The drunken commentary of Peter Allis, the beautiful awkwardness of Hootie Johnson and the Sunday tension. It all makes for great television, and back in 1996, the Sunday drama at Augusta showcased my favourite non-football sporting moment of all-time. Britain's greatest ever golfer, Nick Faldo outwitted the Australian, then number one, Greg Norman, and piled the pressure on hole-after-hole to record a memorable comeback and grab his third green jacket. Just awesome stuff.
Ian Wright
I always used to watch the masters on TV with my dad as a kid. I didn't really understand what was going on but my old man went golfing at least once a week and I was interested in knowing what the story was. As a result most of my positive feelings about the masters stem from half memories of that time. Putts that pretty much took a right turn halfway to the hole, spectacular aerial shots of Amen corner and a beer commercial which depicted little stick figure golfers on a scorecard beating each other with golf clubs.
On the other hand my negative feelings about the tournament, the fact that it's considered a major even though it's got a very selective way of inviting players to play and my feelings on Augusta as a golf club are based in more mature analysis.
Jared Marcus
The Masters is quite simply the best golf tournament of all-time, by far, and one of the ten greatest yearly sporting events in the world. There are no other golf events, and very few sporting events, that have a definable feel to them. The Masters has one. You know every April, for four days, you are watching something special, something meaningful. The Masters means the beginning of Spring. It means history and it means honor. It means Tiger Woods and "There it is, a win for the ages!!!". It means Phil Mickelson jumping for joy. It means Ben Crenshaw celebrating his win with tears after losing his mentor Harvey Penick earlier in the week. It doesn't mean Greg Norman's collapse, but it does mean Nick Faldo's charge to the title. And most importantly it means Arnold Palmer, Ben Hogan, Slammin' Sammy Snead and of course, Jack Nicklaus. Lastly, even if you have never watched The Masters, you can learn all you need to know just by watching the wonderful CBS commercials with the combination of Jim Nantz's historical calls and the classic CBS Masters music. If you watch those spots and you don't get chills, you don't get sports. That my friends, is what The Masters is all about.
Rob Rabies
I hate being sappy, but The Mastuhs toon-a-mint brings it out in me. Two of my most precious sports memories are from Augusta ; Mickelson's win in '04 and Nicklaus' sixth in '86. The first several years I had Internet access I tried to find the '86 Masters on DVD to no avail. At one point, I probably would have garrotted a hobo for a complete copy with commentary from all parties involved. There's something special about an event so memorable it makes the two lead announcers cry as they are watching it (Venturi and Summerall), especially in an age with such prevalent detached cliché-ism as is currently the case.
Everyone says Augusta , along with Opening Day, is the annual rite of spring. Despite my own iconoclasm, I can't help but agree in this case. For all it's nasty history, for the sordid tales of Clifford Roberts, the racism, the Good Ole Boy Network, Augusta National is one of the most physically beautiful places on Earth, albeit man made.
The Masters is a reminder of all that is good—it's the focal point of American golf, the beauty of the landscape, the roar of the galleries, the history that oozes from every inch of the ground, commemorated with a plaque or not; and all that is bad—elitism, prejudice, and hypocrisy—with golf.
Thoughts on this year's tournament
Tim O'Sullivan
Well, Tiger is in great form, and seems to be involved in this weird friendship/rivalry with Roger Federer on who is the greatest sportsman on the planet. However, majors are always ridiculously tough to predict, and as always, I'm looking forward to seeing the unknowns rise up to make a name for themselves, even if its only for fifteen minutes, before the big guns start their race for the famous green jacket on Saturday and Sunday. Hopefully a European can step up to the plate for the first time in what seems a lifetime, but I wouldn't bank on it.
Ian Wright
To be honest after marshalling for a week during the Ryder Cup I've been suffering a huge golf hangover and haven't really paid much attention to the golf this year. So I'll just say that I'm going to miss the retiring Hootie Johnson and his discomfort in front of the camera and of course, ridiculous name.
Jared Marcus
I would love to say this year's tournament showcases a wide open field, but that just isn't the case, and it never is. The one knock someone could make on The Masters is that unlike most other golf tournaments, only a select few really have a chance to win it each year. The Masters is built for long hitters and strong short game players. If you look back at the record books you will find a nice a collection of "no-names" that have won the other three majors, but with The Masters, it just doesn't happen. Only the best of the best win The Masters, and in my opinion, that is what makes it so great. You know that Tiger will be in the mix until the end and you know Phil Mickelson will as well, with one of those two most likely winning it all. Although ultimately this year's tournament will be a celebration of Tiger more than anything else as this year marks the 10th Anniversary of his historic first Masters win.
Rob Rabies
The first factor to consider is the weather. There is a chance of precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday, but Thursday-Sunday is completely clear. This probably means a couple of things. First, Thursday may be the lowest scoring round of the tournament, as conditions will most likely be softest. Secondly, barring a virtuoso performance from Tiger, Phil, or Ernie Els (the only ones truly capable of doing so), the winning score is likely to be between 7-9 under. Slightly firmer conditions will bring some of the shorter hitters (the Mike Weir's of the world) more into play than they would otherwise normally be. Look for some frustrated visages on Friday and Saturday, but the folks at Augusta are not the USGA—they know what butters their bread and it isn't a massacre like Winged Foot of last year. They'll soften up the course for Sunday to provide for as an exciting a finish as possible
Beyond that is the quality of play. Tiger's only played 4 official events so far, but if we know anything about him it's that he sheds rust quicker than anyone. Also, the Tiger-Phil dynamic has taken on Palmer-Nicklaus proportions at Augusta . From 63-65 Palmer either put the Jacket on Nicklaus or vice versa. Phil donned Tiger in '05 and Eldrick performed the honors last year. Does that mean #5 is in the books for Woods? If you like symmetry. Mickelson still hasn't shown that he's able to put the ball in play on the 18th hole with the lead, failing last year at Winged Foot and this year at Riveria (twice for all intents and purposes). He's up there in putting and he still mashes the dog piss out of the ball, so it's hard to count Phil out, but I do wonder where his mental state is at.
Augusta usually doesn't reward players who come in uber-hot. The history of players winning the week before and then taking the Jacket is just not there, although Mickelson did do it last year. That weeds out Adam Scott for me. Look for Sergio to cry like the bitch that he is at some point, Tiger to drop two profanities missed by the censors, and Phil to give us 474 homicidal-creepy smiles.
Tiger's going off at near even money (a 100 dollar bet would net you a 115 dollar profit), Phil is 550, Els 900, and no one else is within 1450. Is it a three-horse race, or is it truly wide open?
As varied as the U.S. Open and PGA have been in recent years, The Masters has (always) been relatively consistent in the quality of its champions. Yes, you occasionally get a Larry Mize or Charles Coody who pulls a horseshoe out of their ass, but it's generally best to go with the chalk.
Highest placed European
Tim O'Sullivan
Notice how there isn't a category for highest placed American? Well, this is the sorry state of affairs that has occurred in the majors for Europeans. Garcia never delivers on the Sunday, Monty is Monty and the Irish lads never took advantage of their improvement on the European tour over the last few years. However, England's prospects look far rosier, Stenson is a great talent and Harrington still has the potential to win a big one.
Prediction: David Howell
Ian Wright
I'd love to say that it'd be one of the Irish boys but I can't see it happening unless one of them has a serious return to form. Sergio Garcia Will probably flatter to deceive before fading midway through Saturday so I'm going to go for Paul Casey who played some amazing golf last year and has the game to win the whole damn thing never mind finish top European. I wouldn't be surprised if he broke Europe's major dry run at some point this year.
Prediction: Paul Casey
Jared Marcus
This is actually a pretty easy one and I am sure it will be a popular pick. While Darren Clarke and Jose Maria Olazabal always perform well at The Masters and whole Colin Montgomerie had a career resurgence in 2006 including tying for second at the U.S. Open, I have to go with Henrik Stenson here. The young Swede has been on an absolute role as of late and has worked his way up to #6 in the world. He has already won twice in 2007 including the Accenture Match Play Championship and seems primed to make a strong run at Augusta this year. In addition to Clarke, Olazabal and Montgomerie, also look out for Paul Casey and Sergio Garcia, but Stenson is clearly the European to beat.
Prediction: Henrik Stenson
Rob Rabies
This is kind of like asking for the hottest woman in a biker gang, but I'll indulge everyone for the sake of camaraderie. Ola-tha-bull was the last Euro to win in 1999, but he, the world's boringest man Nick Faldo (who is actually a fantastic color guy…and funny), and the 2'8" Ian Woosnam are the only ones to win in the last 20 years. I don't think any Euro has a snowball's chance in Ann Coulter's house to win.
Prediction: (Clubber Lang voice) "Pain"…..just kidding. I'm tempted to go with Henrik Stenson. He's in the top five of the Tour in putting and can drive the hell out of the ball, but his iron game leaves something to be desired. This would worry me as a gambler because it's highly likely even if he hits the large greens, that he'll put it on the wrong side or plateau of the hole, and at Augusta , that's death.
Prediction: Paul Casey
Dark Horse
Tim O'Sullivan
I would love to see Howell or Casey figure come Sunday, but it's never easy predicting a European impact. So, after the experience of a major win under his belt, and a significant improvement in his all-round play, I see an Aussie making some waves.
Prediction: Geoff Ogilvy
Ian Wright
He's in bad form but he's been a consistent world rankings top 10 member for a few years. Everyone in the know says that he will win a major at some point in his career but he always seems to under perform in majors aside from the last PGA Championship.
Prediction: Padraig Harrington
Jared Marcus
Now this one is extremely difficult because as I mentioned above, players don't really come out of nowhere to win The Masters, it's not that kind of golf tournament. Plus, the field is much more closed off than in most other tourneys, there are much fewer entries than in any other Major and the requirements for qualifying are much steeper. With that being said, since guys like Tiger and Phil and Vijay are always such strong favorites at The Masters, it means that very good players who wouldn't normally qualify as "dark horses" could be fit the bill here. An example would be someone like Geoff Ogilvy, who actually won the U.S. Open in 2006. However, he is not my pick. Just from glancing down the list I am going to throw out a few names, and they are Luke Donald, Trevor Immelman, Arron Oberholser and Adam Scott. My ultimate pick however, is K.J. Choi, who produced one of the greatest final round performances in history in the 2004 Masters.
Prediction: K.J. Choi
Rob Rabies
I'm a firm believer in horses for courses. Going with guys who have played well there in the past is a wise proposition, as you either have the game for Augusta or you don't. Augusta takes Putting, Power, and Mental Toughness in that order. It's not as mentally taxing as the US Open, which would place Toughness at 1, but it's still a grind, especially with the blade. Stay away from dinkers and players who get temporary Parkinson's under pressure—that's you, Mr. Garcia.
I'm going to go for Padraig Harrington. He's 6th in the Tour in putting and near the top in Birdie Average. Both are paramount at Augusta . He's long-ish off the tee, but has struggled in pressure situations (Winged Foot). With that said, he likes Augusta , and has played well there. I think Casey will do better than him, but of the two, he has a better chance to win. Casey is most likely to fill a Tim Clark-esque bridesmaid's role.
Prediction: Padraig Harrington
Who will be in the reckoning come Sunday
Tim O'Sullivan
Someone no one has ever heard of, four of the world's top ten golfers, a veteran having his last hurrah, Tiger, and hopefully Nick Faldo.
Ian Wright
Ho hum, the usual suspects Lefty, Vijay, Tiger, Big Ernie and the Goose. Possible European challenge coming from the English duo of Casey and Donald.
Jared Marcus
I think I have pretty much covered this through the previous paragraphs, but let me collect all the names and put them together here. Obviously Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson will be there. I think Henrik Stenson will be there and Retief Goosen will be there again as well. I would be surprised if Chris DiMarco wasn't still hanging around on Sunday and I NEVER, EVER count out Freddy Couples. Other guys that will still be in contention will be Paul Casey, Luke Donald, most likely Jose Maria Olazabal and despite the fact that I despise him, I can't discount Vijay Singh. All in all when I lay it out like that, it looks like it could be a phenomenal tournament.
Rob Rabies
The usual—Tiger, Phil, Ernie, Vijay the stroke shaver Singh, Harrington, Casey, Adam Scott, Chris Dimarco, Billy Casper. I know that a lot of people are expecting a strong showing from local hero Master Splinter (Charles Howell III), but I don't. He'll miss the cut. Expect the usual boring-ass grinders like Olazabal and Furyk to be on the top of the second page of the leaderboard and for a player near 50 to make a charge on moving day only to implode come the final 18.
Winner
Tim O'Sullivan
This is stupidly tough to call. Insanely tough. That's why the bookies odds are so excellent outside Tiger and Lefty. However, I'm going to predict a win for one of my favourite golfers, despite a recent dip in form. Although it's extremely hard not opting for Tiger, he's not his invincible former self, and anyone can win the majors.
Prediction: Retief Goosen
Ian Wright
It's a major and he's always ready for the majors. You can really only make one prediction here.
Prediction: Tiger Woods
Jared Marcus
Ahh yes, the all important winner pick. There are clearly only two paths to take here, picking Tiger or picking someone else. Picking Tiger is safe, boring and proves nothing. Picking someone else is ballsy, could make you look like a genius if you are right, and it would probably be a lot more fun (no offense to Tiger because I am a big fan, I just mean in terms of putting some thought into it). But sadly I will never know if any of those things are true because I am taking Mr. Woods. I obviously don't need to bore you with fancy stats or history, because either you know it all already or you don't need to know it. Woods is once again on top of his game and he is once again the best golfer in the world, if not in the history of the game. Augusta National is his course and The Masters is his tournament, and he will prove that this weekend for the 5th time and celebrate the 10th anniversary of his first win in style.
Prediction: Tiger Woods
Rob Rabies
Homer Pick: Phil Mickelson. He's putted well, and Augusta is better suited to his game than any other course. Will we get a Tiger-Phil duel? I wouldn't bet my life on it. I'm making this pick with my heart and 1/18th of my head. You should go with Tiger Woods, and Tiger Woods' attack rows.
Prediction: Phil Mickelson
It should be a quality four days of action. Enjoy.
