Across The Net: Dr. Ivo and Clay Court Preview
Posted by Dan Martin on 04.17.2007
The Second Leg of the 2007 Tennis Season Has Begun with the European Clay Court Season. What should a fan expect?
Players of the Week:
Nicholas Almagro, a legitimate contender for the French Open, won in Valencia Spain for the second consecutive year.
Jelena Jankovic won the family circle cup on green clay in the U.S.
"Dr." Ivo Karlovic won the U.S. Clay Court Championships in Houston for his first ATP title. Ivo is 6'10" and made his first big splash on tour after beating then defending champion and world #1 Lleyton Hewitt at the 2003 Wimbledon Championships. Karlovic is sort of an oddity on tour with only 6'8" Joachim Johansson being in Karlovic's height class. It is nice to see him breakthrough and win a title. Karlovic was runner-up in San Jose this year. Perhaps, his monster serve will carry him to a huge result on a fast surface later this year.
Clay Court Dynamics
Monte Carlo has one of the greatest venues for playing tennis in the world. Monte Carlo, the Italian Open, and the French Open are the three biggest and most picturesque clay court events in the world. A Hemingway of this generation could follow these three events and write their own Death in the Afternoon.
Clay court tennis is just different. I am a reasonably solid tennis player, but clay courts can magnify whatever weaknesses a player might have. The first weakness clay court tennis will shine a spot light on is a lack of foot speed and poor footwork. Clay is slippery and changing directions is difficult on the dirt. A solid clay court player can slowly grind his opponent into the dirt by pinning his opponent deep in the court and either hitting to the opposite side of the court or hitting behind his opponent while the opposition is scrambling to get back to the center of the court.
Clay courts do limit direction changes, but they also allow a player to get a good look at a shot. Clay causes the ball to bounce slower and higher than a typical hard court bounce. This allows a player such as Marat Safin to really unload on ground strokes and bully smaller players. Therefore, clay can magnify weaknesses, but it also gives a player a chance to hit big shots.
Clay values consistency, stamina, foot work and mental toughness. For these reasons, a player who relies solely on power is unlikely to win the French Open. Clay also gives the spectator a chance to see longer rallies and strategically constructed points. For these reasons, this is among my favorite portions of the tennis season.
Clay Court Predictions
Rafael Nadal possesses the stamina, speed, mental toughness and true grit that clay court tennis demands. It is no fluke that he holds the all-time clay court match winning streak. Having said all of this, I do not think Nadal will have an undefeated clay court season. On clay, I still give him an edge over Federer, but he has lost his previous two matches vs. Federer. So, if Federer and he play three times this clay court season, I would expect Federer to take one match. Also, Almagro ought to be able to build on last season's clay court success. Finally, Novak Djokovic is an X factor. He split two hard court matches with Nadal and could build upon last season's French Open quarterfinal run.
Roger Federer probably has 2-3 good seasons of clay court contention left in his legs. Federer was #2 last year on clay, and that is not a bad spot to be. Also, he did not play as much hard court tennis this year due to his early losses at Indian Wells and Miami. Federer ought to be fresh. I do not think he will reach the final of every clay court event he enters as he did in 2006, but Federer is talented enough to make a title run in Paris. Timing will be key for Federer.
Djokovic is a guy who has posted 12 wins in his previous 4 Grand Slam tournaments. He looks to be a future all court threat. Can he win in Paris? I think he might. Momentum is on his side, and right now everything is new and exciting for him. Federer and Nadal have to defend territory, and that is always harder than conquering territory. Djokovic is in the enviable position of climbing the mountain rather than defending it.
Nicholas Almagro, Guillermo "Federer-Killer" Canas and Australian Open runner-up Fernando Gonzalez all have the games to pull off big upsets and potentially win the French Open.
Players such as Tommy Robredo, Richard Gasquet, Marat Safin, David Nalbandian, and Juan Ignacio Chela all deserve respect. Juan Carlos Ferrero, Carlos Moya, and Gustavo Kuerten are former French Open champions who could be one big win away from the momentum needed to reach the second week in Paris or win a Masters Series event. Finally, Argentina's Gaston Gaudio and Guillermo Coria are two of the biggest mysteries of the 2007 clay court season. Coria was a semifinalist in Paris in 2003, runner-up in 2004 and reached the finals of all three clay court Masters Series events in 2005. Since a 2005 U.S. Open quarterfinal meltdown, Coria has basically been a non-factor. Gaudio won the French Open in 2004. To be polite, Gaudio has played poorly over the past 6 months.
Whatever the results may be, I think the clay court season will reward players who are physically and mentally tough enough to survive death in the afternoon.
