Across The Net: Nadal's 67 Wins on Clay

Posted by Dan Martin on 04.23.2007

Nadal moves to 5-0 on Clay vs. Roger Federer. Can anyone or anything stop the clay court juggernaut?

Player of the Week – Rafael Nadal: Not only does Nadal run his all time clay court streak to 67 wins, he does so without dropping a set. Nadal won his 8th Masters Series event by defeating world #1 Roger Federer 6-4, 6-4 at Monte Carlo. Nadal beating Federer on clay is not an upset or a 50-50 pick 'em. Nadal has won 14 sets to Federer's 5 when the two face each other on clay. He is the clear #1 on this surface and potentially setting the stage for a late season duel for #1 in 2007.

Federer leads the 2007 tour with an 18-3 record and 1730 rankings points since January 1. Nadal has now pulled into a solid second for 2007 points with 1505 rankings points in 2007. Nadal has a ton of points to defend through Wimbledon, but Federer also has a lot to defend through the rest of the year. Is it any shock that these two are on top of tennis in 2007 as well as in the 52 week rankings?

Federer can take heart in his 4 wins prior to losing to Nadal. Roger seems to have righted the ship from his Guillermo Canas induced slump. Federer won his four matches in straight sets and seems to be solidly #2 on clay. Still, Federer has to wonder if his French Open title hopes hinge on someone else beating Nadal.

The match seemingly turned on a three game stretch. Nadal was serving at 3-4 15-40 in the first set. If Federer converts either break point, he is serving for the first set. Instead Nadal saves the break points and levels the set at 4-4. Then he broke Federer's serve and served out the first set 6-4. Maybe Federer feels he can peak at the right time and take Nadal down in Paris, but Nadal as of now seems unstoppable on clay.

If not Federer, then who?

Novak Djokovic might be a good candidate. On clay, he'd be an underdog vs. Nadal, but one huge match for this talented player might be enough to topple Rafa.

Mario Ancic, if healthy, has a solid ground game to go with a big serve, athleticism, and strong net play. Ancic could win the match if he hit enough angle volleys to take Nadal out of any rhythm.

Richard Gasquet might also have the talent to play out of his mind and pull an upset.

Canas is an unknown due to his suspension. He is tireless and loves to grind people down. Canas might beat Nadal due to Nadal not having seen him in some time, but Nadal is 2-0 vs. Canas with both wins coming on clay.

Spain's Nicholas Almagro strikes me as the best bet for beating Nadal, but that will require Almagro to be healthy.

Is Nadal a Perfect Clay Court Player?

Maybe… He has a rare combination of strength, speed and stamina. Most clay court players have two of those qualities but not all three. Coria and 2003 French Open Champion Fererro have speed and the ability to hit winners, but are physically fragile. Almagro has strength, but lost in Monte Carlo due to fatigue from his win last week in Spain. If a player can match Nadal's speed, Nadal will over power them. If a player matches his power, he wears them down. Nadal can beat top players with multiple strategies. If one strategy is not working, he can become a tireless backboard and wait for lungs and legs to give out on the other side of the net.

Nadal is also like a pit-bull. At Rome in 2005 and 2006, Nadal fought to his last breath – one more breath than his opponent – to take the title in five sets. Nadal's ability to take hold of any clay court match and not let go is more intimidating than his stroke production or physical gifts. The combination of strength, speed, stamina and relentless determination make Nadal almost unbeatable on a slow surface. Players have adjusted and taken more risks against Nadal on hard courts and indoor courts with a lot of success. However, on clay this strategy is far less viable. Whoever beats Nadal will have earned it. I simply hope injuries and illness are not part of what brings an end to this streak. It would be best for this streak to require a player digging deep and making a Herculean effort rather than winning due to a less than 100% Nadal.