411mania's 2007 Cricket World Cup Coverage- Final: Australia Versus Sri Lanka
Posted by Andy Bracken on 04.28.2007
The final is here. I take a look at the two semi finals, and preview the big one.
411mania's 2007 World Cup Cricket Coverage- World Cup Final Preview
To start with, I would just like to share something from my personal life.
I have had the pleasure of being struck with a pretty heavy duty sinus infection over the past few days, to the point where I had to have a morphine shot for the pain. I've never had morphine before, as every time I've needed serious painkillers I've been given pethidine instead.
Let me just say- morphine is fucking BRILLIANT. It took a few minutes to kick in, but after that I got the works. Started with a high that kills anything that weed will do for you, then came the hallucinations. For someone who remembers acid with fondness, I was absolutely in my element. My wife, however…
If this is any indication, I might try a heroin addiction later in life. I'll wait until I am 80 or something, though- those years suck anyway, so being a junkie won't be much of a step down.
Anyway, enough of my narcotic tales- let's get onto the cricket.
As I've said previously, I freely admit that I completely suck at predictions. However:
"I'll pick Australia and Sri Lanka for the finals (with very little confidence, I might add), with Australia taking their third CWC in a row."
Hey- confidence or not, I am going to bask in this success. Three out of four semi-finalists, and both of the finalists. Now watch while Sri Lanka win the thing and make all of my successful picks out of the water.
Hello to you all, and welcome to 411mania's Cricket World Cup Final Review. I'm Andy Bracken, and let's get straight into it.
The Semi Finals
If nothing else, the manner in which the two semi-finals were won were a fair reflection on who the best two teams in this tournament are.
I was somewhat surprised at the way that New Zealand fell away, as they were totally outclassed by the Lankans in a match that I expected to be close. New Zealand definitely had an off night, but I think that the margin pretty much reflected how well the Sri Lankans are playing at the moment.
Injuries played a significant part in the game as well. Styris was unable to bowl more than a single over, McMillan wasn't able to bowl at all, and Oram, while getting through all of his ten overs, was clearly hobbling and was basically ineffective.
Having their attack limited to five bowlers is a massive blow to a team that plays with the Kiwi gameplan. They rely on being able to always have another bowling option, so that if a bowler is taking some stick Fleming can rotate someone else through and use his tactical nous. Take away those options and the New Zealand attack becomes significantly weaker, and Fleming's captaincy effectiveness becomes blunted.
Mahela Jayawadena played one of the finest innings you could wish to see. He has always been a class player, and his game has elevated to a new level since taking over the captaincy from Attapattu. He is a delightful player to watch, he is completely unflappable and the way he paces an innings is impeccable. I see a lot of Aravinda de Silva (temperament and ability, rather than style) in him, and that is about as big a compliment as I can pay to a batsman.
I was also very pleased to see Upul Tharanga come through. There were whispers before the match that he was going to be dropped in favour of Attapattu, but Tom Moody and the Sri Lankan management stuck with Tharanga at the top of the order. A quick 70, especially after Jayasuriya was dismissed early, was vital for his side, and it is good to see a player repaying the faith shown in him.
The New Zealand bowling was pretty average from top to bottom. They all went for between five and six per over, and with the exception of Franklin's first spell, they just didn't seem to be able to trouble the Lankan batting. Bond had a night to forget, lacking control and being unable to get the swing that makes him one of the best two or three one day bowlers in the world, and Vettori was powerless to restrict runs and apply pressure. Oram was obviously running on one leg, but had to battle through thanks to the unavailability of the other part-timers.
Conversely, the Sri Lankans bowled extremely well. Murali has added another dimension to his bowling since working out how to bowl around the wicket, which doesn't bode well for the batsman of the world, Vaas was his usual accurate self, and watching Malinga bowl is one of the true joys of world cricket at the moment.
Dilhara Fernando was the exception to the rule. He was dismal, leaking runs and falling into his old habit of being unable to control his no-balls. It is pretty much a fait accompli that he will be watching the final from the stands, with the more consistent Maharoof taking the third seamer spot. Fernando will have to find a fix to his career-long no-ball problem, or his career will be finished. Frankly, if a grown adult is too stupid to come to the conclusion to bowl from a foot behind the line if you have a run up issue, then he doesn't deserve a career. It has to be the easiest problem in the game to fix, but for some reason bowlers want that extra few inches. Crazy.
There isn't much to be said about the South Africans. They fell into the same old trap that they always seem to do against the Australians, by trying to prove something rather than trying to win the game. Graeme Smith really needs to talk to someone, because whenever he bats against the Australians he always seems like he has an inferiority complex.
Rather than playing balls on their merits, he tries to show the Australians that he doesn't respect them as being a great bowling team. He continually tries to belt the bowlers out of the ground, rather than picking a ball to hit and looking for singles off the better balls. Ponting and his team know it, and they suck him in every time.
Even worse is Kallis starting to do the same thing. He obviously had Ponting's comments about their group match (where Ponting questioned his slower innings when chasing a big total as being selfish) ringing in his ears, and came out wanting to show the Aussies that he could blaze away with the best of them. Kallis is a great batsman, but he is not the kind of guy to smash every ball off the square, and nor does he need to. Like Smith, he put his own need to get one over on the Australians above his team's goals. No wonder Ponting thought that the South Africans played right into their hands.
Gibbs was OK, although he should have been out before he scored when he nicked one off Tait, and Kemp showed his senior colleagues up by putting his head down and carrying South Africa above 150. Even a bunny like Andre Nel showed application that his top order couldn't seem to find.
Australia just did what they did. McGrath has his tail up and wants to finish on a high, Bracken is moving into McGrath-like consistency, Tait is blowing them away at the top, and Hogg is bowling brilliantly. The only real worry in the whole side is fifth bowling option in Watson. He doesn't move the ball an inch, and he seems to bowl right in the slot for a rushing batsman. He may well be a liability moving into the final, particularly if Jayasuriya hangs around for a while.
There isn't much to say about the Australian batting effort in the semis- when you only have to chase 150, you don't have a great deal of time to make an impression. I have read that some sections are worried about Adam Gilchrist's form, but he is doing the same thing that he has done for years. He always seems to be on the verge of a slump before he smashes a run-a-ball century. Will he fire in the final? Who knows- but I doubt that Gilchrist's form is costing Ponting any sleep. It's just the way that Gilly rolls.
So, the final is Sri Lanka versus Australia. How will things unravel?
2007 Cricket World Cup Final- Australia Versus Sri Lanka
This match will come down to whether the Australians keep their nerve. As big a fan as I am of the Sri Lankan team, if the Australians play to the same level that they have done since the start of the cup, they will win. They have been more dominant than they were in 2003 when they won undefeated, and they are clearly a step above at the moment.
Sri Lanka's chances come from their bowling line up. At the top, they have a great one-two punch in Chaminda Vaas and Lasith Malinga. Australia wouldn't have seen much of Malinga, and he must be tough to pick up out against the backdrop of the umpire's shirt. Vaas is capable of putting the ball on the spot, as well as moving the ball both ways. If the ball is moving around, he will be tough to keep out.
Murali is a true great, but history suggests that the Australians play him far better than most sides. He averages close to 30 in ODIs against Australia, against a career average of just over 22, and he has never taken a five-for against the Aussies. Ponting and his team play Murali well, and Murali will have to have a day out for Sri Lanka to win.
That said, betting against Murali playing well is never a good idea. Also, Australia's past tactic has been to accept Murali going for just 3-4 per over, while taking the attack to the other bowlers. With the quality of back up that Murali has in this tournament, that tactic might not be possible.
I think that for Sri Lanka to win they must bat second, and they must bowl the Australians out. They won't chase down 300, which is the minimum that the Australians will post batting first if they play their entire 50 overs. If the Australians lose a couple early and tighten up, Murali, Malinga and Vaas will have a chance to bust open the Australian middle order. Symonds can be susceptible to a bit of pressure, and Clarke has been known to have a brain meltdown at times. Hussey is completely calm in any situation, but he isn't having the best run of form, and could bookend a middle order collapse if Murali goes through them.
Unfortunately for the little Lankans, I just don't see the Australians faltering. They are as determined as I have ever seen them, and they are not just winning matches, they are dominating them. Hayden is in the best ODI form of his life, Gilchrist can blow the game apart in 20 overs if he gets on a run, Ponting is just imperious, and the middle order is balanced, confident and settled. At the bottom of the order, even Watson and Hogg are in top form. They will pass 300 with ease, and I can see them beating their previous World Cup final effort.
So, my pick is that the Aussies will win their third World Cup in a row. Here's hoping for a good match.
