Across The Net: Nadal Making History, Federer Slumping and What a Sampras Comeback Would Need to Look Like
Posted by Dan Martin on 05.13.2007
Can anyone stop Rafael Nadal? What ails Roger Federer? Who will be his next coach? How Sampras could comeback in 2008… All in this week’s Across the Net!
Nadal, Federer and Sampras, I could not ask for a better set of subjects this week. These guys all are among the greatest to play this sport. Nadal's greatness is more narrowly defined to clay at least for now, but Rafa is rewriting history and has already won 9 Masters Series titles in his young career. This is where Across the Net begins this week:
Nadal is on his way to being the top clay court player ever!
Bjorn Borg's six French Open titles still leave Borg as the undisputed king of clay, but Nadal will be #2 on that list if he has his expected coronation in Paris in June by winning his 3rd French Open title. For now, Ivan Lendl, Mats Wilander and Gustavo Kuerten, all 3 time French Open champions, could be argued to have more clay court accomplishments than Nadal. However, no one has ever won the Italian Open three years in a row, until Nadal did so today. Mats Wilander and Nadal are the only players to win three Monte Carlo titles. Of course, Nadal has also won 77 consecutive matches on clay. Given how physical clay court tennis is, this streak is almost incomprehensible. Consider Rome, Nadal defeated world #16 Mikhail Youzhny, world #5 Novak Djokovic, world #4 Nikolay Davydenko and world # 6 Fernando Gonzalez. Beating four consecutive top 20 players is difficult, but doing so while riding a 24 month clay court winning streak is insane. With one more French Open title, Nadal will have passed everyone but Borg on clay.
So who might beat Nadal?
My intial instinct would be Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic because they are incredibly talented and have the ability to play in the zone. Yet, Nadal is 5-0 vs. Federer on clay and just dominated Djokovic in Rome. Instead of looking at talent, I need to look at results. At the 2006 French Open, Paul-Henri Mathieu pushed Nadal by playing backboard type tennis. Davydenko nearly beat Nadal in Rome doing the same thing. This tells me that trying to attack Nadal on clay is nearly impossible. To beat Nadal on clay it seems as though a player has to enter the trenches and try to be more consistent than Nadal. This sounds crazy I know, but maybe Nadal has an impatient day and makes a lot of errors. Nadal's speed and power allow him to hit passing shots on clay even if someone attacks behind quality stuff. My guess is Davydenko represents the player with the best chance to beat Nadal because Davydenko will get into the trenches. Federer and Djokovic would be ill advised to abandon attacking because grinding is not their style, but top fifty baseliners should not be afraid to engage Nadal in long rallies.
Roger Federer: 41-0 to 7-4?
Federer is in a slump. Any thoughts that he was sandbagging should be dismissed now that he and ex-coach Tony Roche split this week. Federer opened 2007 a red hot 12-0 but is now 19-4 on the year. The Fed is clearly searching for answers. Firing his coach two weeks before the French Open may have been the wrong move, but Federer is trying to be proactive to figure out what is wrong. My guess is that Federer may have embraced the good life a little too much. Hanging out with Tiger Woods and Pete Sampras is all well and good, but if Federer's mental focus slipped while the rest of the ATP tour was stalking him, he may have been taken by surprise. Also, Federer's second loss to Guillermo Canas involved Federer flubbing an overhead when the match was more or less on his racket. Federer's confidence has ebbed.
From November 2003 through January 2007, Federer has won tennis matches at an unprecedented rate. Right now, it looks like Federer will be in a real dogfight with Nadal, and maybe Djokovic, for #1 in 2007. Federer has held the #1 ranking a record 172 consecutive weeks, but unless he rights the ship soon I think this consecutive week mark will be snapped by Nadal sometime between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. Assuming Federer does not pull out of the Hamburg Masters Series event this week, he can begin rebuilding his confidence by collecting ranking points on the court.
Who Should Federer Hire?
I think Federer would be foolish to enter the French Open without an interim coach. I also think hiring a long term coach would be crazy. Who Federer should hire is dictated by circumstances. If Federer is in need of a confidence boost, he might want to consider John McEnroe or even Nick Bollettieri. Boris Becker got a shot of confidence from Bollettieri in 1995, and it led to Becker winning the 1996 Australian Open title. McEnroe would likely instill a swagger in the Fed. If Federer needs some clay court advice, I would suggest either 1995 French Open champion Thomas Muster or two time French Open champion Jim Courier. Both would demand grit from Federer. Muster and Federer both speak German. Muster, like Nadal, is left-handed and might help Federer understand how to attack a lefty on clay. If Federer is in need of tactical advice, he might want to consider Brad Gilbert. Federer would have to open his wallet because Gilbert coaches world #10 Andrew Murray. However, Federer could offer any of these men a contract or handshake deal to work together between now and the end of the French Open. At that point, he and the new coach could evaluate if they want to go forward.
Sampras' former coach Paul Annacone or Agassi's former coach Darren Cahill would be the best long term choices. Annacone would clearly help Federer on grass and hard courts. Cahill is a strategist and workaholic in the mold of Gilbert without Gilbert's annoying shtick. Federer likely needs to find a full-time coach before the U.S. Open, but could work with Courier or Muster on clay and McEnroe or Becker during Wimbledon. At that point, he could make a more permanent hire. Federer went without a coach throughout 2004 and was wildly successful. Despite 2004, going without a coach does not seem wise in 2007.
Sampras in 2008?
Forget Fred Thompson, Newt Gingrich or Al Gore entering the 2008 fray. Sampras would be the most intriguing 2008 comeback. Last week, I assailed the idea that Sampras could win or contend for the Wimbledon title in 2007. I stand by that column. Still, if Sampras was serious about making a run at an 8th Wimbledon crown, 2008 would be a good target. The pro-Sampras crowd will state that his serve and volley tactics immediately make him a threat because so few players serve and volley today. They are half-right. If Sampras is fit enough to serve and volley for seven matches over two weeks, he would have a tactical advantage on grass. In order to become fit enough to do this, Sampras would need to do the following:
1. Hit tennis balls every day rather than 3 days per week.
2. Enter into a goal oriented fitness program that entails some sort of conditioning 6 days per week. In 2008, Sampras would be 36 making fitness paramount.
3. Practice and play matches against top juniors, college players and satellite tour members (minor league tennis players) in Southern California.
4. Schedule a set of exhibition matches against retired and active tennis players.
5. Play indoor and hard court senior events on both the European and North American senior tours.
If Sampras did all of these things between now and January 2008, he could enter some smaller U.S. ATP events in Memphis and San Jose in order to measure where he stands in terms of today's active pro players. Then, Sampras would need to focus on grass court preparation. This would include playing more exhibition matches. Given that grass does not hold heat like a hard court and grass court points are much shorter than clay court points, Sampras' conditioning would need to be good, but being 36 would not crush him. Sampras could bide his time during the 2008 clay court season. He could practice on grass against any early upset victims in Paris. Then, Sampras could play Halle or Queens Club in order to get another measure of where he is at on grass. Finally, Sampras could very well be ready to play Wimbledon.
There his draw would be very important. As an unseeded player he could draw Mario Ancic, Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer in the first round and be in trouble. Sampras might also get a good draw and face a lot of clay court specialists. In that case, Sampras could play his rust off and be in good form with a lot of confidence headed into week two. In that case, the experienced Sampras, with a presumably rabid British crowd behind him, might make things interesting for the top guys at Wimbledon in 2008. Does Sampras want to spend the next 13 months working his way into form? He has repeatedly said no. However, if his tennis level is high enough, Sampras might reconsider. My guess is he will not play Wimbledon in 2008, but 2008 is a much better idea than 2007.
