411 Raceday 5-27-07 Darlington into Charlotte
Posted by Greg Kentz on 05.27.2007
New track, new race, same finish
The Dodge Avenger 500
Jeff Gordon took the victory after pit stops all but eliminated the competition. Gordon somehow managed to finish the race despite a car that looked like it could explode at any second. Ryan Newman took another big step in his quest to return to his former status as one of NACSAR's contenders, with a very impressive fourth place finish. The rest of the top five was filled out by three drivers who probably should have won this race before Gordon did. In second place was Denny Hamlin, who was plagued by poor pitstops all afternoon, and just ran about 5-10 laps short of being able to catch Gordon at the finish. Denny definitely had a better machine, just not a better team. In third place was Jimmie Johnson, who gave up the lead when he pitted under caution with 26 laps remaining, even though he had only run 6 laps on his tires at the time. When they returned to green flag racing he, like Hamlin, just didn't have enough time to fight back to the front, although I don't think he would have caught Hamlin. Had Johnson stayed out, I'm all but certain he would have taken his fifth checkered flag of the year. Rounding things out back in 5th place was Carl Edwards in the #99 car. Carl had the lead midway through the race, but was hit with a drive through penalty that dropped him to 26th. Edwards then drove back to the front, and got close, but he decided to pit along with Johnson late in the race, and lost several spots due to some cars not pitting combined with a slow stop.
The remainder of the top ten was a bunch of the usual suspects, but none of whom did much of note during the race. Sixth place was Tony Stewart, who may be in the process of losing his #1 status at Joe Gibbs Racing. The situation with Hamlin out-racing Stewart both this year and last, is reminiscent of Jimmie Johnson becoming Hendrick's premiere driver right under Jeff Gordon's nose. Matt Kenseth finished 7th with a car that had seen better days, he fought to the front despite brake issues, but couldn't hold on and settled for another top ten. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was next in 8th place, after spending the week under a giant media spotlight, even for him. Dale's spotlight isn't going to get any dimmer this week, since I'm sure the talk of the town headed into all-star weekend will be what penalty NASCAR assessed the #8 team for using an illegal bracket to attach the wing to the rear of their car. The final two spots went to RCR teammates Clint Bowyer, who started on the pole, and Jeff Burton who said he didn't care for his car, yet still managed the solid finish.
The fans aren't the only ones getting frustrated…
Denny Hamlin took another step towards being Joe Gibbs #1 driver this week. To kick things off Denny finished as the runner up in the C.R.P.T.J.S.400, after the race ended he attracted a giant swarm of media types and started blasting folks for him not winning. Tony would be quite proud. Among Denny's assertions were that NASCAR screwed him over by not throwing a late race caution, a point that even race-winner Jeff Gordon saw the validity of. Hamlin went on to say that his team in the pits did a very poor job, and they cost him the race. These conspiracy theories, and theorists, need to be put to bed, I am honestly sick and tired of seeing the same guys win every week, and I believe most fans are too. I also am sick of guys who don't win, and then blame somebody else, especially when they don't have the credentials to show that they actually could win a race. Hamlin, as a rookie, showed that he and his team have some sort of secret about Pocono that nobody else gets. How else do you explain a rookie driving away from everybody and winning from the pole twice? However, with the quality equipment he's been getting wouldn't you think he would've managed to get to a second victory lane by now? Here's a theory, although no conspiracy is attached, Denny is a choker, he can't finish what he starts, and he just isn't as good as Johnson and Gordon. Hamlin also isn't really close to overtaking Stewart, that is if Tony gets his head out of his rear. Tony could win every week, but when he gets into a winning drought it often becomes prolonged because Tony presses to hard to end it. When Tony is winning however, he is patient and confident and he goes on runs where he wins three of four races, similar to what Gordon and Johnson have done this season. When Denny is a contender to win each week, then we can seriously think about Hamlin supplanting Stewart as Gibbs' #1 guy, instead of me just kidding about it. Hamlin being a contender to win every week starts with him winning just once.
If the Chase started today...
Jamie McMurray returns to the field, and Junior falls out, due to the harsh the penalties his team received for the faulty wing bracket. Earnhardt ended up in 14th place, as Ryan Newman's string of top tens has him right on the doorstep of returning to the chase. Here's what the Chase field would look like if the post-season started today…
1. Jimmie Johnson- 5040 points
2. Jeff Gordon- 5030 points
3. Kyle Busch- 5010 points
3. Jeff Burton- 5010 points
3. Matt Kenseth- 5010 points
3. Kevin Harvick- 5010 points
7. Denny Hamlin- 5000 points
7. Tony Stewart- 5000 points
7. Clint Bowyer- 5000 points
7. Carl Edwards- 5000 points
7. Kurt Busch- 5000 points
7. Jamie McMurray- 5000 points
As an added bonus we're going interactive this week, here's our first poll...
Flag waving time…
Every week, I'd like to stop and hand out flags to drivers to rate their performance, obviously green flag means keep on racing you are doing great, yellow is a caution you should probably be careful, Red means stop right now you need an immediate correction, and perhaps somebody could get black flagged from time to time, meaning they need to be taken off the track altogether. The last black flag I could think of would be Michael Waltrip crashing his personal car because he was "sleepy" and then fleeing the scene. Anyway, here we go:
Green Flags:
Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson: more of the same from NASCAR's two biggest championship contenders.
Ryan Newman: The Rocketman nailed his 3rd straight top ten finish at Darlington. This moves Newman to 13th place overall just 51 points back of the final Chase spot. Followed all this up by taking the pole for the Coca-Cola 600. Not bad.
Carl Edwards: Talk about bad pit stops, Carl's squad struggled mightily as well. Still a 5th place finish and a continuance of Carl's resurgence.
Yellow Flags:
Denny Hamlin: Win a race, just one race. The car looks great, he's driving great, but still no wins. Why is this? His crew helped blow it this week, but if they didn't I'm pretty sure Denny would have screwed it up on his own.
Dave Blaney: Creeping up on Mears in 35th, only 100 points to go, and Dave is starting 8th at Charlotte. Toyota's last hope needs a few more solid runs to make it happen.
Dale Earnhardt: Looked great on the track. Unfortunately he was docked 100 points for an illegal wing bracket, and has fallen out of the Chase.
Red Flags:
Casey Mears: Blaney's getting closer, oh and your pathetic existence prevents Hendrick Motorsports from taking a run at Junior. Bad luck has to end eventually right?
Toyota: Not a single one finishing on the lead lap. Not good.
Black Flags:
Angela's Motorsports: Officially out of the Junior sweepstakes. Just the trashiest story of the year, definitely not helping NASCAR's image with mainstream America.
Last week's predictions:
Last week we made the following picks for Darlington:
"The best Dodge will be Bobby Labonte.
The best Chevy will be Jeff Burton in a bounce back performance after last week's 43rd place finish.
The best Toyota will be Dave Blaney again this week.
The best Ford and the race winner will be Carl Edwards in the 99, giving us a backflip, and finally Carl's motorcoach driver Tom Giacchi can shave."
1. Labonte ended up 19th, which was pretty good, but those Penske Dodges are proving to be the best the Manufacturer has to offer.
2. Jeff Burton finished 10th, and as good as RCR has been, it seems they just can't stay with the top two Gibbs and Hendrick cars.
3. Blaney was correct, but that's not really a tough call.
4. This one was half right, but really burns me up, since Carl had a car capable of winning on Sunday. Oh well, I guess it wasn't meant to be.
Now we're off to.... Charlotte
Here Comes the checkered flag, let's take it home...
I skipped the "recent history suggests" section this week because almost everything points to Jimmie Johnson winning the race. I figured I'd just get right to predictions. Kasey Kahne did win both races last season, but he's can't be factored into anything at this point, so here are those predictions.
Guy starting near the front most likely to end up at the back:Ricky Rudd, but that's hardly a challenge. I almost said Elliott Sadler struggling can be expected as well, but Evernham Dodges did well here last year. (Kasey Kahne won both races, and Scott Riggs held both poles.)
Guy starting near the back most likely to end up at the front: Two Chase-potential teams are starting in the back five in Clint Bowyer and Carl Edwards. We'll sidestep the obvious in this case and say Jeff Green end up in the top 20.
Best Ford: Rousch is the only Ford team to look at and Kenseth is the best and the only one to qualify well, so he becomes the very obvious choice.
Best Chevy: Aside from Johnson, let's say Mark Martin.
Best Dodge: Them Penske boys have been on fire, and start this race 1-2. So I'll take Stremme.
Best Toyota: I'd say this is Brian Vickers' chance to get a solid run in, maybe even a top 10. Oh, and Dale Jarrett is back, I don't think he'll do well, but I just thought I should point it out. No Mikey though.
Race Winner:Mark Martin, although I'd love to see a first timer shake things up, so I'll mention JJ Yeley as a possible dark horse contender, because picking Stremme to win in a Dodge would be insane, right? I really hope at some point somebody breaks the stranglehold 48 & 24 possess on the sport right now, its really starting to get to me.
Now here's your chance to pick the winner...
Oh well, that's all for this week, please provide any feedback you may have, and don't forget the May report card will drop at some point this week, probably Wednesday.
