Across The Net: Women’s Tennis is Languishing and 2007 French Open Picks
Posted by Dan Martin on 05.29.2007
The WTA field is depleted, and the Second Grand Slam of 2007 is Underway.
I apologize for this column being late. I had an unexpected lack of internet access over the past three days. Fortunately, the poor weather in France has kept the tournament in the first round for the next two days.
Women's Tennis is in the Tank
If tennis fans rewind to the late 1990's and early portion of this decade, much of the U.S. media was discussing how glamorous and interesting women's tennis was when compared to the men's tour. The Women's Tennis Association (WTA) seemingly had everything going for it with a precocious Martina Hings, an improving Venus Williams, a wildly talented Serena Williams, a resurgent Jennifer Capriati, and the very stable Lindsay Davenport. These five players stood at the top of the game while Anna Kournikova, Amelie Mauresmo, two young Belgians, and a set of young Eastern Europeans provided the WTA with depth.
By contrast, the U.S. media had dubbed men's tennis dull. A decade of power serving and slow decline among U.S. players not named Pete Sampras or Andre Agassi had left men's tennis without the marketable depth that appealed to the U.S. media market for much of the 1980's and early 1990's. The Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) began marketing the post-Sampras players. Serve only players began to drop out of the top 20. Sampras and Agassi maintained excellence as younger players began to assert themselves. Eventually, the high quality of play on the men's tour found several new faces for marketing within the U.S. in Andy Roddick, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Roddick garners U.S. media attention. Federer and Nadal's dominance has won U.S. fame overtime because dominance tends to do that. With the emergence of homegrown James Blake, charismatic foreign players and the Argentine and Spanish Armadas, men's tennis is quietly enjoying the dominant seat in world tennis.
How did the WTA lose its edge?
As far as I can tell, the WTA has several structural problems and made key strategic mistakes in marketing itself over the past ten years.
Structural Issues Facing Women's Tennis
1. Injuries – Tennis is a sport where young children who demonstrate prodigious talent are placed into intense training at young ages. Justine Henin recently stated that she felt "old" at 25. Prior to her premature retirement, Kim Clijsters suffered from serious wrist injuries. This French Open must deal with Martina Hingis, promising youngster Tatiana Golovin and Peng Shui, of the important media market in China, all skipping the French Open due to injuries.
2. Lack of Depth – The men's field also suffered from key injuries, but the quality of depth in the ATP top 100 allows injuries to be more easily absorbed.
3. Tennis parents – From my point of view, the overbearing parents on the WTA contribute to early burnout. Many players are ready to play world class tennis at an age in which traveling the world alone seems to be out of the question. Thus, when many WTA players hit a certain age they not only assert independence from their parents, they also decide tennis is not that fun and drop back in the rankings.
4. Tactical Clones – The WTA tour has two players with one handed backhands and somewhere between 3-5 players with excellent serves. The remainder slug two fisted backhands, hit mediocre serves and act as though the net were an electrified fence. Points are generally not constructed. The strategy on the WTA these days revolves around crushing returns and smacking ground strokes. This lack of diversity is in part due to parents with no expertise serving as coaches. This leads to players never developing the tactical acumen one might expect experience to provide.
The Strategic Mistake Made by the WTA
1. Marketing Glamour rather than the Sport – The decision to focus on sex appeal and personality conflicts was simply stupid. First, it is morally questionable to market athletes based upon physical appearance. Second, if a top player is not gorgeous, it is impossible to market her as a sex kitten. Also, many top players have chaffed at the marketing of glamour. Finally, novelty may have given the WTA a boost when it first embarked on marketing tennis as a sport of attractive women, but if people want to see attractive women, actresses and models become new competition for the WTA. Rather, than focusing on sport and competition the WTA has all too often reduced itself to a second rate source for cheesecake.
Where does this leave women's tennis today?
The top two players in the world, regardless of rankings, are Justine Henin and Serena Williams. One feels worn out and the other is a part-time player. Amelie Mauresmo has seemingly lost the fire that propelled her to such a great 2006. Kim Clijsters has retired, Martina Hingis is injured, and Venus Williams looks like a top 20 player rather than a top 5 player. Maria Sharapova, who is the focus of the glamour based marketing, has suffered some sort of mental breakdown on her formerly potent serve. All of this results in a player such as Svetlana Kuznetsova being ranked #3 in the world. If the WTA has seven promising prospects, history tells us only two or three will actually become reliably elite players. This is why the loss of Clijsters, decline of Mauresmo, injuries to Hingis, and meltdown of Shaprapova hurts the WTA so much. It will take many promising younger players to re-establish the depth that has been depleted on the WTA tour. Fortunately, Sharapova is far from a lost cause. I believe women's tennis will eventually rebound. However, the sooner the WTA focuses on improving and marketing the quality of play, the more likely such a rebound is to take place.
French Open Draws
Toughest Male and Female Draws:
#4 seed Nikolay Davydenko has a number of competent clay court players in his quarter of the draw. He also faces a potential quarterfinal showdown with #5 seed Fernando Gonzalez. If he survives his quarter, Davydenko then will likely have to beat Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to make a Grand Slam breakthrough.
#1 seed Justine Henin. A number of reasonably good players lurk in her draw. Also, Australian Open champion Serena Williams stands between Henin and the semifinals.
Easiest Male and Female Draws:
#6 seed Novak Djokovic is in Andy Roddick's quarter of the draw. The young Serbian star may not play through to the second week, but he cannot blame that on his draw.
#3 seed Svetlana Kuznetsova avoids any dangerous lower seeded players. She might be able to duplicate her 2006 runner-up finish.
Women's Semifinals and Championship Predictions
Semifinals: Kuznetsova d. Mauresmo 6-4, 6-4, Jelena Jankovic d. Justine Henin 3-6, 6-4, 6-4
Championship: Jankovic d. Kuznetsova 7-5, 6-2
This pick is somewhat sentimental because a Jankovic win gives women's tennis a new star. The WTA needs a player such as Jankovic, Nadia Petrova or Nicole Vaidisova to win this title. Sadly, they are all in the same quarter of the draw.
Men's Semifinals and Championship Predictions
Semifinals: Federer d. Gonzalez 7-6, 7-5, 6-1, Nadal d. Djokovic 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1
Championship: Federer d. Nadal 6-3, 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
If Nadal is physically and mentally fresh, I think he wins his 3rd consecutive French Open, but his draw involves some tough grinders. If Nadal is a bit mentally weary, Federer just might take the title.
