411 Raceday 6-3-07 Review/Preview for Charlotte into Dover
Posted by Greg Kentz on 06.03.2007
Finally some new faces on the leaderboard...
The Coca-Cola 600
After two early wrecks took a large chunk of the field out of the race, and several leading teams pitted late in the race to avoid running out of fuel, Casey Mears found himself in victory lane for the first time this season. In fact, it was an unusual top five to say the least. Joining Mears was JJ Yeley in 2nd, a career best, Kyle Petty finished 3rd, his best finish in almost ten years, Reed Sorenson finished 4th, also a career best, and Brian Vickers rounding out the group in 5th, the all-time best in Toyota's brief history. The back half of the top ten featured more of the usual suspects, oh, and Ricky Rudd in 7th. Stewart was 6th, Earnhardt 8th, Hamlin 9th and Jimmie was 10th. Needless to say, I was excited, I am so sick of the same guys winning each week, and I'm sick of the same few guys even having a chance to win each week. So when I found myself rooting for Kyle Petty to catch Yeley and Mears during the race's final few laps, I'll admit it was refreshing to say the least. When's the last time, aside from the first week of the season, that you get a top five entirely composed of guys without a previous top five finish that season? I'll tell you when: never. New drivers fighting for the win was fantastic to watch, and I sure hope the haters calm down a bit a realize, that the big guys played it safe and took fuel, while the less established teams took the risks and earned the rewards.
I said what now?
A few weeks back I wrote the following:
Side note: Here's my list of drivers without any career wins in order of who I think is most likely to break through this season:
1. Clint Bowyer-His teammates have both won this year, and he has shown he's capable of staying near the front
2. David Stremme- Have you seen the runs this guy is getting? Plus, fellow Dodge driver Kasey Kahne won seven races last year, so the tools are in the garage to give him a capable car. A veteran to help on set-ups would be a huge lift at Ginassi, instead they are learning about tracks as they go with a rookie and two second-year guys.
3. Boris Said- I'm a huge Said fan, and on a road course few are better. Remember, at last year's Pepsi 400 it almost happened.
4. Juan Montoya- This guy is a winner, he reminds me a lot of Tony Stewart, and I mean that as a compliment. I think he can really get it done with just a little more experience.
5. JJ Yeley- Have you seen where the other Gibbs cars have run all season? The kid needs a few breaks for certain, but it wouldn't shock me.
6. Martin Truex Jr- He's a good racer, as proven by his Busch success, but if the boss ain't winning then it's hard to count on anybody else at DEI winning either.
7. Casey Mears- His team won last year in the 25, of course this guy's no Brian Vickers, but who is?
Okay then, so as you can see I truly am a NASCAR expert, having listed Mears the 7th most likely guy to break through. If I ever get a prediction correct I swear I am going to make a huge deal about it. Anyway, since I apparently don't know what I'm talking about, perhaps you guys would like to try.
He said what now?
And the award for most obnoxious statement from the Gibbs garage of the week goes to… drum roll please…Oh my! We have an upset! The favorite Stewart and last week's winner Hamlin have been taken out by an underdog! Ladies and Gentlemen, your winner: crew chief of the #11 Fed-Ex team, Mike Ford.
Mike Ford said this week that there is no glory in winning a fuel mileage race, and I can't help but feel if the #18 had one the race, he might feel slightly different. I realize every driver would prefer to win by making a slick pass on the race's final turn, but that's not always an option. Denny Hamlin and team are much better than the their counterparts at the #25 team, but on this day that #25 team did a better job of putting their car in a position to win. So congratulate them and get ready for the next one. The constant griping from the Gibbs camp tells me two things, first of all that they are frustrated and its getting worse, and secondly that they are SICK of Hendrick cars winning so many races.
The result to me on this constant stream of complaints is two-fold, first I love that the Gibbs guys seem to be sick of the Hendrick guys, a good legitimate rivalry featuring 7 of NASCAR's top guys would be awesome. The problem I have is that, until Gibb's cars win a race or two, it can't really be a rivalry. It just seems like the losers, who aren't on Hendrick's(perception, not my opinion) level just complain because they are sore losers. With Pocono fast approaching, I'm hoping for a couple of wins to level the playing field, and get some real juices flowing.
Flag waving time…
Every week, I'd like to stop and hand out flags to drivers to rate their performance, obviously green flag means keep on racing you are doing great, yellow is a caution you should probably be careful, Red means stop right now you need an immediate correction, and perhaps somebody could get black flagged from time to time, meaning they need to be taken off the track altogether. The last black flag I could think of would be Michael Waltrip crashing his personal car because he was "sleepy" and then fleeing the scene. Anyway, here we go:
Green Flags: Underdogs: Here's to Mears, Petty, Yeley, Vickers, Sorenson, and Rudd all turning in their best finishes to date in 2007. Testicles: Took a set to stay out when all the heavyweights were pitting, good work to all the teams that took that chance and stayed out. Rick Hendrick: This guy can't seem to lose this season.
Yellow Flags: Ryan Newman: His run at a Chase spot took a hit in Charlotte, but Newman bounced back by grabbing the pole at Dover. Nice Job, now we just need a solid race to get things completely right. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Junior continues to try and get out from under the stiff penalty he received a few weeks back. Dale is in 13th overall, only 13 point behind Jamie McMurray for the final Chase slot.
Red Flags: Dave Blaney: Blaney will miss Dover, and now will be passed by Scott Riggs for 36th overall, and Johnny Sauter now has a week to pad his points, so he can remain in the top 35.
Black Flags: none
If the Chase started today…
Here's the top 12 reseeded as they would be if the Chase started on Sunday:
1. Jimmie Johnson- 5040 points
2. Jeff Gordon- 5030 points
3. Jeff Burton- 5010 points
3. Matt Kenseth- 5010 points
3. Kevin Harvick- 5010 points
3. Kyle Busch- 5010 points
7. Tony Stewart- 5000 points
7. Denny Hamlin- 5000 points
7. Carl Edwards- 5000 points
7. Clint Bowyer- 5000 points
7. Kurt Busch- 5000 points
7. Jamie McMurray- 5000 points
Last week's predictions…
Last week we made the following predictions:
"Guy starting near the front most likely to end up at the back: Ricky Rudd, but that's hardly a challenge. I almost said Elliott Sadler struggling can be expected as well, but Evernham Dodges did well here last year. (Kasey Kahne won both races, and Scott Riggs held both poles.)
Guy starting near the back most likely to end up at the front: Two Chase-potential teams are starting in the back five in Clint Bowyer and Carl Edwards. We'll sidestep the obvious in this case and say Jeff Green end up in the top 20.
Best Ford: Rousch is the only Ford team to look at and Kenseth is the best and the only one to qualify well, so he becomes the very obvious choice.
Best Chevy: Aside from Johnson, let's say Mark Martin.
Best Dodge: Them Penske boys have been on fire, and start this race 1-2. So I'll take Stremme.
Best Toyota: I'd say this is Brian Vickers' chance to get a solid run in, maybe even a top 10. Oh, and Dale Jarrett is back, I don't think he'll do well, but I just thought I should point it out. No Mikey though.
Race Winner: Mark Martin, although I'd love to see a first timer shake things up, so I'll mention JJ Yeley as a possible dark horse contender, because picking Stremme to win in a Dodge would be insane, right? I really hope at some point somebody breaks the stranglehold 48 & 24 possess on the sport right now, its really starting"
I admit, most of these are crap, Ricky Rudd got a top ten while Jeff Green finished next to last, I'd say we're off to a poor start. Rudd's top ten also undid my Ford prediction, although Kenseth did run well. Elsewhere, that Stremme pick looks pretty bad, but Vickers getting that top ten, as well as JJ Yeley coming in 2nd after I called him a dark-horse contender at least lets me know I'm not a COMPLETE fraud, just like 55-65% at most, which enough that I can sleep at night.
And now we're off to… Dover!
Recent history suggests…
In the last ten Nextel cup races at Dover, Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman each hold three victories, as does the 19th starting position. (both 2006 winners Burton & Kenseth started 19th) This year Kyle Busch starts 19th, and you know he always has a shot at winning each and every weekend. Other recent winners are Greg Biffle and Mark Martin, both in Rousch Fords at the time of victory. Considering Matt Kenseth fought Rousch teammate Jamie McMurray down to the wire to get that 2006 victory, I'd say that fleet has got to be seriously considered contenders. Newman took the pole, as he looks to rebound from a poor Coca-Cola 600, and will be joined on the front-row by Dale Earnhardt Jr., who won here in September of 2001, the first event after the WTC attacks of that month.
There's the white flag, let's bring it home…
Here come more "sure to disappoint" predictions:
Guy starting in the front most likely to end up in the back:Kasey Kahne (starts 4th), the guy just isn't getting it done this year, and until he does, I'm going to hate. Guy starting in the back most likely to end up at the front:Kyle Petty (starts 39th), I know it's a long shot, but back in March I said I felt back to back top tens this summer for Kyle, now's our chance! Carpe Diem!
Best Ford:Jamie McMurray, almost won here last year, he has to be more confident entering this race than any race since joining Rousch racing.
Best Toyota: 5 made the race, and although Vickers has clearly been the best team, I'm going to take Michael Waltrip, he's due for some good fortune.
Best Dodge: 6 cars in the first 6 rows gives us lots to choose from, I'll guess I'll go with Ryan Newman from the pole, rebounding from Charlotte, and cementing his position as a Chase contender in 2007.
Best Chevy:Kyle Busch, and he also wins the race. I'm going to ride the #19 starting spot vibe from 2006, besides Kyle hasn't won in a few months and is due to get back to victory lane. Also worth considering that in four career Dover starts, Kyle has three top five finishes, a win is in order.
That's going to do it for me this week, I hope everybody enjoys the article, and be sure to check out this month's report card, we just posted it yesterday. One last thing, a special hello to the Cunninghams, Michelle and Phil, who are both down in Dover for this weekend's race.
