Across the Net 6.24.07: The 2007 Wimbledon Preview
Posted by Dan Martin on 06.24.2007
Who will prevail At Wimbledon? I’m not sure, but I will break the draws down to the best of my ability.
I break each quarter of the Gentlemen's and Ladies' Championships Down:
Federer's Quarter:
Four time defending champion Roger Federer carries a 48 match winning streak on grass courts into Wimbledon. He could face rising clay court phenom Juan Martin del Porto in the 2nd round. On clay, this would look like an interesting test, but on grass Federer ought to win and face Marat Safin in the third round. Safin is the last man not named Rafael Nadal to beat Roger Federer in a Grand Slam match. Safin is also wildly talented and took Roger the distance in the 2005 Halle final on grass. With Marat anything is possible, but his form does not suggest an upset. Still, Federer likely hopes Marat loses in round 1 or 2. If Federer gets past Safin, he could face huge serving Dmitry Tursunov in the round of 16. Federer's likely quarterfinal opponent is hard to predict, but the winner of the first round clash between James Blake and Igor Andrev has a shot to be there.
Roddick's Quarter
This is the toughest quarter in the tournament. Roddick has an interesting match with Justin Gimelstob to open things up if solely because Gimelstob was runner-up at Newport on grass in 2006. Big Justin also took a set off of Pete Sampras in 2000. Roddick ought to win, but I doubt the veteran fears anyone. Roddick looks good up to the round of 16 where he might face Ljubicic or Mathieu. Also, Verdasco could push Roddick if he plays well in the 3rd round. The lower portion of this quarter is loaded with strong players. Nicholas Mahut nearly won Queen's Club on grass last week. Richard Gasquet has won two career titles on grass. Andy Murray of Scotland will have the fans behind him. Murray's ability to return serve will get him through this quarter if his health holds up. Otherwise, Roddick is a smart bet.
Breaking News 8th Seeded Andy Murray has pulled out of the draw due to a wrist injury. Roddick's quarter just got a lot easier.
Djokovic's Quarter
Novak Djokovic is receiving the rewards of his stellar play in 2007. The fourth seeded Serb is not long on grass court experience, but his movement on court recalls Sampras, Federer and Edberg. Those guys won a combined 13 Wimbledon titles and 15 Grand Slams on grass (Edberg won two down under before it got paved over). Djokovic can go far especially since his quarter of the draw is most benign. Thomas Johanson and David Nalbandian have had good results on grass in the past, but neither has played well in 2007. Lleyton Hewitt won Wimbledon in 2002 and has won five career titles on grass. Marcos Badhdatis has won 9 of his past 11 matches on grass. Ivo Karlovic and Max Mirnyi can always cause trouble especially on grass. Expect the winner of a Djokovic-Hewitt round of 16 match to reach the semifinals.
Nadal's Quarter
Rafael Nadal's draw is not as soft as the 2006 draw he owned. Still, it is not all bad. Mardy Fish is an attack minded player (he is kind of a very injured Jonas Bjorkman) who reached the Australian Open quarterfinal. On grass, that is an interesting first round test for Nadal. Sebastian Grosjean had a great run on grass from 2003-2005. He could cause Nadal trouble in the third round. Mikhail Youzhny has won his past two non-clay court matches vs. Nadal and is a likely round of 16 opponent. Halle Champion Thomas Berdych could be in the quarterfinals waiting for Nadal if he avoids losing to a cagey veteran. Berdych has won his past 3 non-clay court matches with Nadal. I doubt Nadal gets to the quarters for some reason, but if he does Berdych ought to stop his run.
Semifinals: Roger Federer d. Andy Roddick 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 Lleyton Hewitt d. Thomas Berdych 3-6, 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4 (Updated after the Murray Injury News)
Championship: Federer d. Hewitt 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
Something tells me the soft quarter of the draw Hewitt landed in will allow his experience to be the difference when he upsets Djokovic and Berdych. I think Berdych beats Nadal if Rafa gets to the quarterfinals. Federer can likely beat Safin, even if it is a dangerous match, because Safin hates grass. Roddick has perhaps his best chance to win Wimbledon, but Roger is the champion until someone knocks him out. Federer will then be too much for Hewitt.
PS - Replace Hewitt with Djokovic if the 19 year old figures out how to play on grass.
Ladies' Singles
Henin's Quarter
Expect Justine Henin and Serena Williams to rule this quarter of the draw. Henin is a two time Wimbledon runner-up and desires this title a great deal. Serena has held this title twice. Serena beat Henin in Miami. Henin returned the favor at the French Open. Expect this match to determine the top female player for 2007.
Jankovic's Quarter
Jelena has been the most consistent female player in 2007. She also beat Maria Sharapova on grass last week. Eighth seeded Anna Chakvedatze and 1997 champion Martina Hingis lurk in her draw. However, this looks like smooth sailing for Jelena.
Mauresmo's Quarter
Defending champion Amelie Mauresmo played well this past week in Eastbourne. Her health and tennis game have come back at the right time. Still, either 6'1" Nicole Vaidisova or surprise French Open finalist Ana Ivanovic ought to push Mauresmo in the quarterfinals. Zi Yan could be a tough round of 16 opponent.
Sharapova's Quarter
Maria Sharapova has a potential re-match of her 2005 semifinal loss to Venus Williams in the round of 16. Although, Shuai Peng of China could upset Venus in the second round. Elena Dementieva was a quarter finalist last year, but needs to be healthy to make a similar run in 2007. Tatiana Golovin is a talented player whose progress has been frustrated by injuries. She pushed Sharapova at the U.S. Open last year. Expect those two in the quarterfinals.
Seminfinals: Justine Henin d. Jelena Jankovic 6-2, 6-4 Amelie Mauresmo d. Tatiana Golovin 3-6, 7-5, 6-3
Championship: Mauresmo d. Henin 7-5, 6-2
Henin beat Mauresmo to win Eastbourne 7-5, 6-7, 7-6, but this is two weeks before the ladies' championship. Mauresmo has to be happy to be that close to the world #1 given the year she has had. Henin has been physically fragile in the past. Winning 7 matches in Paris and winning Eastbourne might leave Henin a bit tired. I also expect her to have to summon her best tennis to defeat Serena Williams in the quarterfinals. If Henin peaks two matches before the championship, I see Mauresmo peaking at the right time and taking home the gold for a second consecutive year.
Kind of boring to pick the 2006 champions to repeat in 2007, but plenty of opportunities for upsets exist (especially in the men's draw). Jimmy Connors make-over of Andy Roddick is almost 1 year old. Maybe Roddick finally takes home a Wimbledon title. Jankovic, Ivanovic, Vaidisova and Golovin are waiting to breakthrough. Maybe this is the tournament one of them does.
Plug of the Week
I was emailed by the publishers of The Roger Federer Story, Quest for Perfection on June 20. The book comes out in the U.S. on June 25, 2005. The fact they emailed me makes me think I am somewhere on the tennis press radar screen. So I will plug it. If they send me a free copy, I will be sure to review it.
