The Dynamic Center: Federer Wins #50 and Justine Henin Takes Home the Canadian Open

Posted by Dan Martin on 08.20.2007

This week has big implications for the upcoming U.S. Open.

Players of the Week:

Roger Federer took home title #50 with a hard week of tennis in Cincinnati. He defeated James Blake 6-1, 6-4. Federer claimed his first ever men's U.S. Open series competition. Justine Henin asserted her status as the world #1 with a win at the Canadian Open. Henin took home the title by beating Jelena Jankovic 7-6, 7-5. Jankovic has been runner-up each of the past two weeks and seems close to winning big.

The Implications of One Week in Cincinnati

Novak Djokovic came back down to earth a bit with a second round loss to former world #1 Carlos Moya. Djokovic had a first round bye, but his star still rising. Djokovic has been 16-2 in North American hard court Masters Series events in 2007.

Rafael Nadal loss by default in the second round after a similar bye means he like Djokovic received first round loser computer points. Nadal had earned 550 points more than Federer in 2007 prior to this week. Coming out of Cincinnati, Nadal is only 55 points ahead of Federer for 2007. What looked like a promising chance to overtake Federer in 2007 now is a much higher mountain to climb. Nadal must now also worry about a dodgy knee and a sore wrist.

Andy Roddick lost in the round of 16 to David Ferrer of Spain. Ferrer has had a great 2007 and owns some of the best return of serve statistics on the tour. Still, Roddick won Cincinnati in 2006 and should not lose to a slow court player in straight sets on a fast hard court with rabid fans supporting him. As a result, Andy is likely to be seeded 5th at the U.S. Open when he was ranked #3 in the world 2 weeks ago.

Nikolay Davydenko reached the semifinals of Cincinnati and will claim the #4 seed in New York despite his loss to a resurgent James Blake. Lleyton Hewitt pushed Roger Federer to the brink in his semifinal loss and suddenly becomes a dark horse in New York if some craziness occurs in the draw.

Roger Federer extended his claim on the #1 ranking for a month or two more with his win and Nadal's early loss. Federer now holds 14 Masters Series titles, second only to Agassi's 17, and 11 Grand Slam titles. His assault on history continues and today's victory puts him 11 titles behind Agassi's career total of 61 and 14 behind Sampras' 64. Federer's win coupled with Nadal and Djokovic's early losses restore some of the order to men's tennis that was upset with Federer's early losses at Indian Wells and Miami in March and April.

Andy Roddick: Now or Never?

Andy Roddick has played better under Jimmy Connors than he did the previous 52 weeks. Nevertheless, Djokovic, Richard Gasquet, Andy Murray (when healthy) and even Ferrer are not afraid of him. Nadal and Federer have been solidly ahead of him for several years. Roddick enters the U.S. Open with a lot of computer points to defend due to his runner-up finish in 2006. A lesser result for Roddick will have him going the wrong direction even as his play has improved.

In 2004, Roddick nearly bullied Roger Federer into submission at Wimbledon. Then Roddick played some awesome tennis to reach the U.S. Open quarterfinals only to lose to Joachim Johansson in 5 sets. Roddick lost a lot of heart breaking matches to Federer in 2005 and seemed to be content to lose to other players in 2006. Connors entered the picture and Roddick made a run back into the top 3 in the world.

Today, Roddick is ranked #5 and licking his wounds from a devastating loss to Richard Gasquet at Wimbledon. Armed with the biggest right handed serve in men's tennis Roddick led two sets and a break in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Some whispered he might be able to beat Federer. Gasquet broke serve, won the 3rd set won the 4th set and undid Roddick in a close 5th set. Can Roddick recover?

This U.S. Open may represent an odd opportunity for Roddick. In the long run, it seems clear that Djokovic, Nadal and Federer are going to be in front of him with younger players making strides everyday to over take him. Roddick might be able to give up dreams of recapturing the #1 ranking he held in 2003 and simply play in the here and now. Roddick is in a spot where his back is against the wall. Roddick is in one of those spots where a great athlete has an opportunity in front of him. He is still at worst the 4th most likely man to win the U.S. Open this year. However, this might be the last time the odds are that good for him. Maybe Roddick relaxes and sees it is now or never and just lets it rip. Roddick might have two weeks where his backhand works and he volleys well. If he relaxes enough to do that, he might take home U.S. Open title #2.

The Era of No Bad Players

Looking at some of the first and second round matches at Montreal and Cincinnati, it has become clear that no bad players exist these days. I can remember Jimmy Connors' second round match in the 1991 U.S. Open. He faced Michiel Schapers of the Netherlands and just killed him. Old blood and guts barely survived a five set first round only to play a guy who was just not very good yet somehow won a match at the 1991 U.S. Open. I asked myself as I watched rooting Jimbo on, "How is this guy on tour? How did he win a round?" I do not ask that question very often these days. When Carlos Moya can play Marcos Baghdatis, David Nalbandian and Novak Djokovic in the 1st or 2nd round is crazy. Hewitt vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero in the 1st round in Montreal or Marat Safin vs. Rafael Nadal in the 2nd round at Montreal is also insane. Some argued Federer had an easy Cincinnati due to so many seeds losing so early. Somehow beating Marcos Baghdatis with his strong serve, lefty forehand and good hands does not seem like and easy round of 16 match. Hard hitting Nicholas Almagro is not a clay court specialist in the mold of Javier Sanchez. Lleyton Hewitt's ranking has dropped, but doesn't he play well and compete? I am not saying this era has better top players than other eras. That is a tougher argument, but this era has the least easy matches of any era. This is the era of no bad players which means few easy matches.