Across The Net: Tennis Takes NY! Breaking Down the Men’s and Women’s 2007 U.S. Open Draws
Posted by ikabod Crane on 08.27.2007
Who is a good bet in NY? Who might go home early? I do not have a crystal ball, but my powers of analysis do their best to answer these questions.
Methodology I will break each draw down by quarter and then project semifinalists, finalists and a champion. The top 4 seeds in the men's and women's events are my guide to analyzing the upcoming action.
2007 Men's Draw
Federer's Quarter: Three time defending champion Roger Federer is fresh off of his win at Cincinnati and is seeking his fourth consecutive U.S. Open title. His draw is not easy. Federer faces U.S. youngster Scoville Jenkins in the first round and might face 2003 Australian Open runner-up Rainer Schuettler in the second round. The round of 32 will likely pit Federer against either talented Jarkko Nieminen or 6'9" rookie and NCAA champion John Isner. In the round of 16 Federer will likely face either Wimbledon semifinalist Richard Gasquet or former world #1 Juan Carlos Ferrero. That would lead Federer to a quarterfinal match-up with 2003 U.S. Open champion Andy Roddick in a rematch of last year's final, but Thomas Berdych, Jose Acasuso, or Paul-Henri Mathieu could all wind up in the quarterfinal as well. Prediction: Federer gets through this quarter, but will be tested seriously at least once.
Davydenko's Quarter: World #4 Nikolay Davydenko has the second softest draw of the tournament. #6 seed James Blake was runner-up in LA and Cincinnati and just won New Haven and is the default top seed of this draw since he crushed Davydenko in Cincinnati. Nicholas Almagro played well in Cincinnati in taking a set off of Federer. Marcos Baghdatis is exceptionally talented and a lefty. 6'6" Sam Querrey of the U.S. is a potential bracket buster. Tommy Haas played well in the first half of 2007 until the injury bug hit. In all reality though, James Blake will face Baghdatis in the round of 16 in a match that ought to determine the semifinalist from this quarter of the draw. Prediction: Baghdatis crushes NY's hopes by beating James Blake and then defeats Davydenko to reach the semifinals.
Novak Djokovic's Quarter: This is the toughest quarter in the entire tournament. Djokovic leads off against Mario Ancic who beat Djokovic at Wimbledon 2006. Ancic was a top 15 player up until mono struck in early 2007. Confidence ought to be the difference here for Djokovic. L.A. Champion Radek Stepanek will likely await Djokovic in round 2. However, Lleyton Hewitt, Carlos Moya, Mikhail Youzhny, and Juan Martin del Porto all potentially stand in Djokovic's way even if he beats Ancic and Stepanek. Djokovic has been the best player on North American hard courts this year with titles in Miami and Montreal along with a runner-up finish at Indian Wells. If he reaches the semifinals, he will have earned it. Prediction: Djokovic reaches the quarterfinals surviving a duel with Hewitt. Djokovic then defeats a resurgent Carlos Moya to reach the semifinals.
Nadal's Quarter: Rafael Nadal is lucky to have the easiest quarter of the draw. Still, he has never shown a real comfort level in NY or on fast hard courts. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Dmitry Tursunov could present Nadal with a challenge in the round of 32. David Ferrer of Spain has quietly had an awesome 2007 and has some of the best return of serve statistics on the ATP tour. If he reaches the round of 16 and plays Nadal like he is any other player, Ferrer may well win. If Ferrer faces Nadal thinking this is the top dog in my country, Ferrer will lose. There Nadal might face chronic grand slam underachiever Ivan Ljubicic or crazy Marat Safin. Frank Dancevic of Canada might be a bracket buster after his strong Montreal and Indianapolis performances. Still, if Nadal gets past the 3rd and 4th rounds, I do not see anyone with the metal to test him in the quarterfinals. Prediction: David Ferrer somehow defeats Nadal and rides the momentum into the semifinal after beating Frank Dancevic in the quarterfinals. I know it is a crazy pick, but sometimes in a weak quarter the unpredictable happens.
Seminfinals: Federer d. Baghdatis 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-3 Djokovic d. Ferrer 6-4, 7-6, 6-4
Championship: Federer d. Djokovic 6-7, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6
2007 Women's Draw
Henin's Quarter: This is a tough quarter of the draw containing world #1 Justine Henin and a questionable Serena Williams. Also, Marion Bartoli who defeated Henin in the Wimbledon semifinals lurks. Talented players Tatiana Golovin, Dinara Safina (Marat's sister), and Vera Zvonoreva also reside in this quarter of the draw. Prediction: Henin rides out a tough draw and beats a rusty Serena if she gets to the quarterfinals.
Jankovic's Quarter: World #3 Jelena Jankovic has played exceptionally well this year, but has not put herself over the top in big events. World #5 Ana Ivanovic is co-favorite in this quarter of the draw. Alas, Venus Williams and Sam Stosur also occupy this quarter of the draw. Prediction: Ivanovic gets past Venus Williams and faces Jankovic in a Serbian battle. Ivanovic has been the better big match player this year, but too little is left in the tank after Venus and Jankovic wins in 3 tough sets.
Kuznetsova's Quarter: World #4 and 2004 U.S. Open Champion Svetlana Kuznetsova is a strong player. However, this quarter of the draw is wide open. Kuznetsova did just win in New Haven (with three consecutive injury defaults). However, this draw screams for some mayhem. 7th seed Nadia Petrova has never lived up to her promise in big events. This could be her time. Martina Hingis has to think if she can pull some cagey veteran play out of her racket bag she might be in a grand slam semifinal again. 9th seed Daniela Hantuchova is talented but frail. New Haven runner-up Agnes Szavay might make some noise if she stays healthy. Prediction: Kuznetsova falls to Hingis in the round of 16 and the Swiss Miss finds a way past Nadia Petrova into her first Grand Slam semifinal since returning to the tour in 2006.
Sharapova's Quarter: Defending champion Maria Charapova could not have been handed a better draw. Sure she has a bad shoulder and has absorbed some thrashings this season. The thing is Jankovic, Henin, Ivanovic, Venus and Serena are all on the top half of the draw. What could go wrong? Sharapova is 5-0 vs. promising Anna Chakvetadze. 6'1" Czech teen Nicole Vaidisova has taken a step back in the past 6 months and seems to be mentally fragile (might I say weak). However, a win over 6'3" Sharapova might right the confidence ship for Vaidisova. Prediction: Sharapova rolls through this quarter of the draw.
Semifinals: Henin d. Jankovic 7-6, 6-4 Sharapova d. Hingis 2-6, 6-4, 6-2
Championship: Henin d. Sharapova 3-6, 6-4, 6-4
#1 Seeds winning in both events – how dull… The thing is I have not followed the women's tour much since injuries have been plaguing it like crazy so my picks are less than reliable.
