The Dynamic Center: Lindsay is Back, Surface Rankings and Indoor Season Preview
Posted by ikabod Crane on 09.16.2007
Who is best on each surface in mens tennis? What to look for in the indoor circuit? I give my thoughts inside. Also, Lindsay Davenport and Fernando Gonzalez each seem to be back.
Players of the Week:
Lindsay Davenport won her first title in almost 2 years in Bali, Indonesia. More impressively she missed over 1 year of tennis due to being pregnant and giving birth. I am not sure what it says about the women's tour that Lindsay won. Perhaps, world #3 Jelena Jankovic can shrug her loss to Davenport off to weariness from the U.S. Open and due to a bad umpire. World #12 Daniela Hantuchova lost to Davenport in the finals. If I had to rate Lindsay, I would place her in the women's top 10 despite the pregnancy and layoff from tennis. The WTA demonstrated better depth during the U.S. Open, but the depth is still lacking when players can take long layoffs and return to old winning ways with little difficulty.
Fernando Gonzalez ended 2006 on a tear and was runner-up at the 2007 Australian Open. Since January, Gonzo has gone into hiding displaying none of the tennis that propelled him up the rankings. Gonzalez just won the China Open. Also, U.S. Open women's runner-up Svetlana Kuztensova helped Russia win its 4th consecutive Federation Cup title. I am not sure how Kuznetsova is ranked #2 in the world, but this is a nice feather in her cap along with her U.S. Open showing.
2007 Surface Rankings: Indoor Court Supremacy will be Determined in the Coming Months, but Hard, Clay and Grass Court Grades Can be Given for 2007
Methodology The top 5 for each surface shall be given. A 5th place showing results in 10 points, 4th place 20 points, 3rd place 30 points, 2nd place 40 points and 1st place 50 points. A total of all points shall then be given at the end.
Hard Court Top 5
1. Roger Federer He won the 2007 U.S. and Australian Opens, along with titles at Masters Series Cincinnati and Dubai on hard courts. Federer was runner-up at the Canadian Open as well. 2. Novak Djokovic Titles at Masters Series Canada and Masters Series Miami plus a U.S. Open runner-up finish place the young Serb #2 on hard courts. 3. Andy Roddick - He won in DC and finished as a semifinalist at the 2007 Australian Open. His quarterfinal losses at Masters Series Canada and the U.S. Open came at the hands of Djokovic and Federer. 4. Rafael Nadal Rafa won Masters Series Indian Wells, was a semifinalist at Masters Series Canada, and a quarterfinalist at Masters Series Miami. He also reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. 5. Tie Nikolay Davydenko & Tommy Haas The Russian reached the Semifinals of the U.S. Open defeating Haas in the quarterfinals. He also reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open where he lost to Haas.
Clay Court Top 5
1. Rafael Nadal He has won 5 tournaments on clay this year including the French Open and 2 Masters Series events. No one is even close to Rafa on clay. 2. Roger Federer Federer defeated Nadal in the finals of Masters series Hamburg and was runner-up to Nadal at the French Open and Monte Carlo. 3. Nikolay Davydenko The Russian reached the French Open semifinals where he troubled Federer. He also troubled Nadal in the semifinals of the Italian Open. If Davydenko could add a heavier serve, he might be able to win the French Open. 4. Novak Djokovic The young Serb reached the French Open semifinals and won a clay court title in Portugal. He also lost to Nadal in the quarterfinals of the Italian Open. 5. Tommy Robredo Robredo always posts consistent clay court results. He lost to Roger Federer in the quarterfinals at the French Open. Younger clay court afficianados such as Juan Monaco and Juan Martin del Porto are nipping at his heals, but for now Tommy is still #5 on the dirt.
Grass Court Top 5
1. Roger Federer He only played one grass court event in 2007, but he won his 5th consecutive Wimbledon title in July. 2. Rafael Nadal Rafa did not play great at Queen's Club, but his Wimbledon performance as a result of guts. Nadal played 4 tough matches over 7 consecutive days due to rain and bad scheduling. He still pushed Federer hard on championship Sunday. 3. Novak Djokovic I know it is starting to sound boring placing Federer, Nadal and Djokovic in the top 5 of all 3 lists, but surface consistency is the mark of a complete player. Djokovic's 5 set wins over Lleyton Hewitt and Marcos Baghdatis earn his #3 spot. 4. Andy Roddick The hard serving American won Queen's Club in 2007 and was within 8 points of the Wimbledon semifinals. His inability to close out Gasquet allows Djokovic to occupy the #3 slot. 5. Richard Gasquet The young Frenchman has won two career grass court titles prior to 2007, but his miraculous quarterfinal comeback vs. Andy Roddick to claim a 4-6, 4-6, 7-6, 7-6, 8-6 victory and Wimbledon semifinal appearance prove he is capable of more than he has shown in much of his career. Gasquet has to learn to dig deep in every match.
Totals
1. Roger Federer 140 Points
2. Rafael Nadal 110 Points
3. Novak Djokovic 90 Points
4. Andy Roddick 50 Points
5. Nikolay Davydenko 40 Points
6. Richard Gasquet 10 Points
6. Tommy Haas 10 Points
6. Tommy Robredo 10 Points
Indoor Tennis: Money, Ranking Points and ???
The tennis season continues through November despite the final Grand Slam event being completed in early September. Davis Cup offers some purpose to a few players during this time, but in many ways the late season tournaments are a race for cash and ranking points. Here are the storylines I expect to see between now and the end of the 2007 season.
1. Rafael Nadal will play a limited schedule. Rafa looked physically run down at the U.S. Open, defaulted in Cincinnati with a sore wrist and had knee issues at Wimbledon. Nadal is 795 computer points behind Federer for 2007 and could mathematically make the race for #1 interesting, but I do not see Nadal risking the 2008 Australian Open or more in order to chase #1 in 2007. Nadal is scheduled to play Bangkok, Spain, Paris and Shanghai. Expect him to play at most 2 of those 4 events.
2. Someone will get hot. Youngsters such as Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet and Thomas Berdych could all use some momentum after injury or lackluster efforts clouded some of their potential. James Blake and Fernando Gonzalez have used the indoor circuit well in recent years too. Marat Safin could jump start his career with some good results indoors. Expect 1 or 2 players to boost their ranking quite a bit before the year ends.
3. Huge servers will upset some top players. Indoor courts favor huge servers and many top players are not as dialed in for indoor events after the Grand Slam season. Last year 6'7" Joachim Johansson defeated Nadal last year on an indoor court. 6'10" Ivo Karlovic and 6'9" John Isner could feast on victories due to fast indoor courts.
4. Novak Djokovic will make a run at finishing 2007 ranked #2. Djokovic is only 20, but he has played a lot of tennis this year and could benefit from slowing his schedule a bit. However, even if Djokovic plays a reduced schedule, his serve and game are well suited for indoor tennis. With Nadal nursing injuries, Djokovic could make up serious ground on his 21 year old rival.
5. Shanghai will be amazing. Any tournament that features the top 8 players in the world is normally going to be awesome, but this top 8 may be a better indoor court top 8 than normal. Players will also be very motivated to establish momentum for 2008 because tennis may be reshuffling its rankings in 2008 more so than the previous 2 seasons. Federer, Djokovic, and Roddick can all play indoors. I expect 2 more big hitters to finish in the top 8 (Gonzalez, Blake, Ljubicic, or Berdych). Davydenko has such good hand eye coordination that a fast surface should not bother him. Finally, Nadal is a fighter who will embrace the less than ideal circumstances indoor tennis presents his style of play.
