Across The Net 10.22.07: Nalbandian Reborn!

Posted by Dan Martin on 10.22.2007

David Nalbandian Beats #2, #3, & #1 Back-to-Back-to-Back in Madrid

Players of the Week:

Justine Henin just won her 4th consecutive title and is exerting her dominance over the women's tour. I expect Justine to have an exceptional 2008. No one seems equipped to stop her from finishing another year at #1 and winning more Grand Slam titles. Henin is quickly making her way toward the title of the best player in the post-Graf/Seles era. I have more below on David Nalbandian's impressive hat trick in Madrid.

Nalbandian is the Man(dian)?

Earlier this year, Novak Djokovic defeated then world #3 Andy Roddick, world #2 Rafael Nadal and world #1 Roger Federer in succession. Such events are rare. It had not happened since Boris Becker pulled off the feat in late 1994. For one thing, the top 3 players in the world do not always enter the same tournaments. Also, beating a great player is obviously difficult so doing it 3 times is not easy.

David Nalbandian made sure that there was no 13 year gap after Djokovic's triumph because he duplicated the feat this past week in Madrid. In fact, it was not even a 13 week gap between Djokovic and Nalbandian's big weeks. Nalbandian's feat is perhaps more impressive than Djokovic's for a few reasons. First, Nalbandian humbled Nadal, a Spaniard, 6-1, 6-2 in Madrid. Then, Nalbandian beat Djokovic who is to my mind a more fearsome world #3 than Andy Roddick. Finally, Nalbandian defeated Federer 1-6, 6-3, 6-3 whereas Djokovic beat Federer 7-6, 2-6, 7-6. Had Federer won either tie breaker, Djokovic would not have pulled off his triple play. Nalbandian did lose a set 6-1, but the other 2 sets Nalbandian won were not a few points from going Federer's direction.

Nalbandian's Prospects in 2008

David Nalbandian is one of the most talented players in the world. He hits the ball as cleanly as anyone on tour and mixes up speeds and directions in a way that drives his opponents nuts. He defeated Roger Federer in the 2005 Masters Cup final and entered 2006 looking like a serious threat to win his first Grand Slam title. After all, Nalbandian was runner- up at Wimbledon in 2002 and has reached the semifinals of the other 3 Grand Slam events. Australia 2006 did not work out as well as Nalbandian had hoped. He reached the semifinals and led Marcos Baghdatis by 2 sets before imploding.

Rather than setting up a showdown with Roger Federer, Nalbandian had a stinging loss that would be hard to get over. At the 2006 French Open, Nalbandian jumped out to a big lead on Roger during the semifinals before injuries forced a default. Nalbandian has never really recovered from these two events. Maybe now Nalbandian can make 2008 into the year 2006 could have been. Given his skill set, Nalbandian could easily challenge Federer Down Under as much as either Djokovic or Nadal. At a minimum, Nalbandian has entered the list of 4 or 5 players not named Roger Federer most likely to win big non-clay court tournaments.

In order for Nalbandian to make this leap, he will need to focus on fitness. His gut has been the source of jokes from journalists and players alike (although he does give hope to an out of shape hacker like me). Perhaps injury problems led to a loss of conditioning, but if Nalbandian wants to win big he must stay fit. Given that Nalbandian's record vs. Federer is an impressive 7 wins to 8 losses and he dominated Nadal in their only meeting, he has to think he can beat anyone anytime.

The Rankings Rat Race

Roger Federer is likely to finish 2007 #1, but it is not yet a mathematical certainty. Federer leads Nadal by 1020 points and Nadal could at most earn 1250 points between now and the end of the year. If Federer wins Basel this week, he will be mathematically unassailable. Nadal leads Djokovic by 720 points, but Djokovic also might earn 1250 more points this year. Nevertheless, the top 3 rankings are likely to stay in their current order.

Nikolay Davydenko has a nice lead over the competition for the #4 ranking, but his lead is less formidable than Djokovic's lead over Davydenko. 8 players are in serious contention for the final spot for the season ending Masters Cup. Tommy Haas or Richard Gasquet are my picks to finish in the top 8, but this set of players are all within 90 points of Tommy Haas for the 8th slot. Reaching the year end event gives a player a chance to lock in computer points for the next 52 weeks that will help seeding at every event in 2008.

Less Secure Grip for Federer?

Federer will start his record 195th consecutive week at #1 on Monday October 21, 2007. Roger's ranking points are lower than they were at this time in 2006. This is partially attributed to Federer's early losses at Indian Wells and Miami. Also, Roger skipped Qatar, Halle and Tokyo in 2007 despite winning each event in 2006. Federer seems to have made up his mind to play a more judicious schedule in order to add longevity to his career as he moves from his mid 20's to his late 20's.

Computer points are what they are, and Roger is still #1 despite playing a more limited schedule in 2007. Nadal and Djokovic for the first time during Federer's reign provide Roger with two potential foils. David Nalbandian may be returning to the form that made him a thorn in Federer's side for years. Andy Roddick has a servers chance against anyone on surfaces other than clay and played very well in New York. I do not think a consistent multi-surface challenger has yet emerged to take Roger off of his perch, but the committee of players trying to do so has gotten better and deeper. This is good for tennis, and probably good for Federer. Challenges keep a player and a sport sharp. Roger may need to play a few more events next year in order to maintain his lead on the computer in 2008.