Across the Net 10.29.07: Hometown Boy Makes Good and the Race for the Final 8
Posted by Dan Martin on 10.29.2007
Roger Federer clinched the #1 ranking for 2007 in his hometown. The race for the tour championships in Shanghai is as confusing as ever with one tournament remaining to decide it all.
Players of the Week:
Roger Federer won his tour leading 7th title one week after dropping the final in Madrid. Federer also wrapped up the #1 ranking through the end of 2007 with a win in his hometown. Last year, Federer bought pizza for the ball kids in Basel in part because he had been a ball boy at the event as a child. No news yet on pizza in 2007, but one assumes he can afford it. Federer will begin his 197th consecutive week at #1 next week and ought to hold the #1 ranking through, at the very least, the first week of January 2008. That would give Roger at least 206 consecutive weeks at #1 when the old men's record was 160 weeks and women's record is 186 weeks.
Andy Murray is healthy again and making a charge at the season championships. Andy Murray is talented in returning serves and that always gives a player a chance to win. Murray, like Nambandian, can change the direction and pace of the ball effectively. He also has Brad Gilbert in his corner. If Murray stays healthy and keeps his temper in check, next year could be a breakout season. His victory in St. Petersburg, Russia bodes well for 2008.
Sebastian Grosjean won an event in Lyon, France. The 29 year old also won the doubles title with the powerful Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Grosjean has had a nice career highlighted by sound grass court results from 2003-2005. His speedy and determined play has lacked the power to win a major title, but he was a semifinalist at Wimbledon in 2003 and 2004 along with being a semifinalist at both the French Open and Australian Opens in 2001. The surface versatility and doubles acumen Grosjean demonstrates is a lesson for U.S. junior development programs. Young players should be taught every facet of the game rather than over emphasizing how to hit a big forehand on a hard court.
Race for the Final 8
The Masters Cup is the season ending championship for the ATP tour and is limited to the top 8 players in the world. Aside from the prestige of finishing among the top 8, the ranking points a player earns at the Masters Cup remain on a player's portfolio for 52 weeks meaning it is a chance for the rich to get richer. Thus, a solid showing in Shanghai allows for a player to get a better seeding and a better draw for the next 52 weeks.
The final 2 slots for the Masters Cup are still up for grabs. Fernando Gonzalez has a solid lead as the #7 man, but the lead is not 100% safe. Gonzalez leads #8 Tommy Haas by 145 ranking points in 2007. Tommy Haas' lead is far more precarious than anything we see in the 2008 presidential primary polls. Haas leads #9 Tommy Robredo by 5 ranking points, #10 James Blake by 10 ranking points and #11 Andy Murray by 15 ranking points. Players such as Richard Gasquet, Thomas Berdych, Carlos Moya and Ivan Ljubicic are all within 70 ranking points of Haas. The Paris Indoor Championships are the only event remaining prior to the Masters Cup. Since Paris is a Masters Series event, it is loaded with computer points. The Paris Indoor champion receives 500 ranking points so the final 2 slots are likely to be undecided until late next week. Last week, I picked Haas or Gasquet to take the final slot. Now, I am not sure because Murray seems like a good bet as well.
Paris Indoor Preview: Nadal's Soft Draw
With so much at stake in Paris, it is worth taking a look at the draw. Roger Federer is the top seed, assuming he does not withdraw, and faces an interesting match after his first round bye. Federer will face either 6'10" Ivo Karlovic who lost to Federer 7-6, 7-6 in the Basel semifinals or Fernando Verdasco who was runner-up in St. Petersburg. In the 3rd round Federer would likely face either Carlos Moya or the man who beat him in Madrid, David Nalbandian.
Third seeded Novak Djokovic is on Federer's side of the draw and is thus seeded to face Federer in the semifinals. A rematch of the U.S. Open final would be interesting, but like Federer, Djokovic has obstacles in his path. The young Serb may face tricky Fabrice Santoro in the 2nd round and then Andy Murray in the 3rd round. The quarterfinals would likely pit Djokovic against either a French player with crowd support such as Gasquet.
Andy Roddick withdrew from the Paris Indoor, and this led to some lopsidedness to the draw. Defending champion and 4th seed Nikolay Davydenko along with #2 seed Rafael Nadal are the happy recipients of this softer side of the draw. Nadal might struggle with either Youzhny or Gonzalez in the quarterfinals, but if Nadal is healthy he should reach the semifinals. Davydenko needs to get past the odd fine he drew for not trying hard enough in St. Petersburg. Ivan Ljubicic could benefit from the fast carpet surface in Paris. Still, Nadal and Davydenko have to like their chances of reaching the final in Paris. Feleciano Lopez is however a dark horse to make a run on the fast courts of Paris.
Predictions are difficult to make because the players already qualified for Shanghai tend to either withdraw or be less motivated to win in Paris than the players fighting for a spot in the final 8. Nadal has been a bit injured since Wimbledon, Djokovic has probably over played in 2007 and Federer will be facing his 3rd full week of tennis if he makes a solid run in Paris. Therefore, the big 3 might not be the smart picks. Davydenko may be a mess after the fine last week or he may play with a chip on his shoulder. I think players such as Murray and Gasquet could do well in Paris, but the big 3 are the conventional wisdom picks even if health and motivation may be working against them. Who am I to be unconventional?
Tennis Links
Here is what some other people are writing about tennis.
This tennis magazine article took the words out of my mouth regarding the talented yet unpredictable younger generation in tennis.
This article from Tennis-X, a great tennis website, details the race for the women's tour championship.
