Across The Net 11.19.07: Roger Rules Again - Federer Claims His 4th Masters Cup Title in 5 Years!
Posted by Dan Martin on 11.19.2007
The Tour Finale Was Full of Story Lines and Rankings Implications. Also, Federer and Pete Sampras are set to Lock-Up in Malaysia Next Week!
Players of the Week:
Roger Federer won his tour leading 8th title of 2007 this week. Spaniard David Ferrer played awesome tennis en route to his second place finish in Shanghai. Each man earns player of the week honors due to Ferrer going undefeated in round robin play and Federer winning the entire event despite a loss in the round robin. Both men have to feel good headed into 2008.
Masters Cup Analysis: 3 Big Stories
1. Federer Vulnerable? The first big story of the Masters Cup was Federer losing his first round robin match to Chile's Fernando Gonzalez 6-3, 6-7, 5-7. This represented Federer's first back-to-back loss since 2003, and I among many started to wonder if his grip on number 1 was slipping. Federer's Grand Slam results were equal to those of 2006. However, at times 2007 seemed to be a slight to noticeable decline from Federer's dominance over the tour as seen in 2004-06. Nadal entered the Masters Cup 995 points behind Federer. With 750 potential points to the winner of the Masters Cup, Federer looked vulnerable headed into 2008 after his loss to Gonzalez.
2. Ferrer is the Real Deal On day 3, David Ferrer built upon his momentum from day 1 and defeated compatriot Rafael Nadal 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. Ferrer also defeated Nadal at the U.S. Open and has achieved a rough parity with Nadal on non-clay court surfaces. Ferrer is fit, fast and willing to fight. Because of these factors he engages Nadal in long rallies and makes their matches a war of attrition. This is a risky strategy vs. the super athletic and competitive Nadal. Nevertheless, Ferrer ought to feel like he has a reasonable shot at winning the French Open next year. Both Nalbandian and Ferrer have to be curious how their hard court success vs. Nadal might translate to the dirt. Ferrer also beat Roddick, Gasquet and Djokovic in straight sets this week!
3. Rankings Implications Roger Federer rebounded from his round robin loss by winning 9 consecutive sets vs. Nikolay Davydenko, Andy Roddick, Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer. While Federer may be leery of Nalbandian, the rumors of his demise were overstated. Federer increased his rankings lead over Nadal by 450 points this week and padded his lead over Djokovic by 650 points. David Ferrer leapt over Andy Roddick into the #5 slot in the men's rankings. Ferrer now trails #4 Davydenko by only 75 rankings points.
Roddick and Davis Cup?
Andy Roddick played the Masters Cup as a preparation for the Davis Cup finals. The first two matches could not have gone better for Roddick. He beat Davydenko in 3 sets in what might be a potential preview of a Davis Cup pairing. Andy then crushed Fernando Gonzalez. Then came a match against his nemesis Roger Federer who proceeded to beat Roddick 6-4, 6-2 in a contest that did not resemble their competitive night match in the U.S. Open quarterfinals. Roddick then lost to Ferrer 6-1, 6-3 to close the Masters Cup on a two match losing streak.
One has to figure Roddick, James Blakes and the Bryan twins can defeat Russia on a fast indoor court on U.S. soil. Still, this team may want the win too much and may play tighter than needed. Russia has nothing to lose, and I expect their captain to pull some unexpected moves (no poisonings though). The Bryan twins are the #1 doubles team in the world and should win their point. Roddick ought to be good for at least 1 if not 2 points in singles. James Blake has not played well for most of 2007, but he blitzed Davydenko in Cincinnati and is ranked #13 in the world. On paper, the U.S. should win 4 of 5 possible points and seal up their first Davis Cup title since 1995.
My guess is Russia will try to use world #33 Igor Andreev's big forehand to throw off Blake and Roddick. World # 19 Mikhail Youzhny, if healthy, is favored vs. Blake in my opinion. If Russia can sweep Blake and steal one from Roddick, they will repeat as Davis Cup champions. Doubles is also never a sure thing. World #34 Dmitry Tursunov plays a Jim Courier style grinding game that could take advantage of a nervous performance from Blake or Roddick. The Davis Cup is not quite the U.S.'s to lose, but I will be shocked if Russia uses world #4 Nikolay Davydenko because of Roddick and Blake's fast court success vs. Davydenko. My prediction is the U.S. wins 3-2, but I think the team wants this so badly that some drama will accompany the quest. With Federer and Nadal being so dominant and doubles being less than publicized, this could be the biggest opportunity for Blake, Roddick and the Bryans in the foreseeable future. If accusations of poisoning arise from either side, all bets are off.
Federer's "Average" Year
Roger Federer won 3 Grand Slam events, 2 Masters Series events, 1 Masters Cup and 2 smaller tournaments to tally a tour leading 8 titles in 2007. In the Open Era of tennis (1969-present) a player winning 3 or more Grand Slams in a calendar year has only happened on 6 occasions: Laver won all 4 in 69, Connors won 3 in 74, Wilander won 3 in 88 and Federer won 3 in 04, 06 and 07. What is no easy task has been done 3 times in 4 years by Federer. The Fed was also runner-up at the French Open and 3 Masters Series events. Yet, Federer's 8 titles and 88% winning percentage are a drop off from his 90+% winning percentages of 04-06 and the 34 titles he won between 04 and 06. By all accounts, winning 3 Grand Slams and being runner-up at the 4th makes a year unreal. Throw in the other wins and an 88% winning percentage and Roger posted a year for the ages. The discussions of decline due to losing twice to Canas and Nalbandian speak to the dominance of 04-06 more so than poor form in 07. Every champion can point to players they did not fair as well against as one might expect. Kucera bothered Agassi, Krajicek bothered Sampras, Mecir was a Swede killer… Federer has pulled a series deficit against Nadal that was at one time 1-6 to a respectable 6-8 head-to-head record. If Federer takes 2007's losses in stride and learns from them, it may help him in his quest to play relevant tennis through 2016 when he will turn 35. Winning all the time is not possible, but learning from losses as he has against Nadal is something Federer can do as he ages.
Federer vs. Sampras
The plot of this exhibition series between Federer and Sampras is eerily similar to the plot of Rocky 6/Rocky Balboa. While I never saw the film, I understand the younger champion, unlike Mr. Federer, was not on track to be an all-time great. Federer and Sampras are two of the all time greats if not the two greatest players ever. They are in my mind at worst the two greatest players since Rod Laver. Federer holds the all time consecutive weeks at #1 record and is tied for the second most Grand Slam singles titles at 12. Federer is also #2 to Agassi for most Masters Series titles and #2 to Sampras and Lendl for most Masters Cup titles. It is reasonable to project Roger breaking at least some of those records. Sampras holds the all time total weeks at #1 and all time most Grand Slam singles titles mark. Sampras finished 6 consecutive years at #1. Each man has won 7 hard court Grand Slam titles. Federer holds the all time grass and hard court winning streaks. Sampras won 7 Wimbledon titles in 8 years. Federer holds 5 consecutive Wimbledon titles….
To get to the point, these two guys can play a little tennis. Each man moves smoothly and is athletic. Peter Bodo said something to the effect that Federer is a finesse player with a surprising amount of power and Sampras is a power player with a surprising amount of finesse. Maybe both men are complete players who respect the history of the game by playing an all court style of tennis. My guess is the exhibitions will be friendly but spirited. Sampras has won 4 titles on the senior tour this year. Federer is the #1 player in the world. Sampras knows Federer's mind is likely already thinking about both resting for and preparing for the 2008 Australian Open. Each man understands what it is like to be in the other's shoes and to be a dominant #1.
Pete is a competitor and will attack Roger with his serve and forward movement. Roger is serving well and will likely press Pete's backhand and take away the net if need be. Roger is 10 years younger than Pete and has been active on the tour since September 2002. He should win these matches. He does however respect Pete and likely knows that Sampras is dangerous, especially on an indoor court. Fans should just enjoy seeing this and not read too much into the results. After all, Sampras beat Roddick in an exhibition in 2006, but did not return to the tour. If Sampras does so well that he requests some wild cards in 2008, then read something into the results. Otherwise, these matches will be a friendly and spirited testament to greatness.
