Across The Net 12.31.07: 2008 Men’s Tennis Preview

Posted by ikabod Crane on 12.31.2007

A New Tennis Season Starts Next Week. I Look at 5 Potential Stories for 2008. Who is the Best Two Time Grand Slam Winner? Also, Roger Federer’s 10 Biggest Accomplishments in 2007.

Looking into the Crystal Ball for 5 Big Storylines for 2008

1. The New Surface in Australia Will Lead to Strange Results The early word is that the surface may be slower than the Rebound Ace used down under for 20 years. A faster or slower court certainly tilts the odds of victory in various directions. Australia is a nation that has traditionally produced aggressive net attacking players, but for 20 years has used a slow hard court surface. I had hoped, especially with Wimbledon playing so slow, that a faster court would be an interesting development for tennis that would see more players work their way toward the net to finish points. The days of straight serve and volley tennis may be dead, but net play is still a good thing. A slow court in Oz may be all Rafael Nadal or David Nalbandian needs to unseat Roger Federer.

2. David Nalbandian will Challenge for a Major Prize. Nalbandian has always had a lot of success vs. Roger Federer. He also whipped Nadal twice in fall 2007. Nalbandian may even have a chance at beating Nadal on clay. Certainly fitness has been a question mark for Nalbandian, but the last man to win Madrid and Paris back to back to close a year was Marat Safin in 2004. The big Russian built on that momentum by taking the 2005 Australian Open crown. No one can guarantee a Grand Slam victory, but Nalbandian has the game to contend at all 4 majors if his motivation and fitness are strong.

3. Richard Gasquet, Marcos Baghdatis and Andy Murray Face Big Years. Thomas Berdych has never made the move many saw in his future when he beat Federer at the 2004 Olympics. It is not quite make or break for Gasquet, Baghdatis or Murray, but each man has struggled with health, consistency and toughness over the past 24 months. With a younger generation always entering the tour, these three promising players have to show they have the goods sooner rather than later.

4. Novak Djokovic Faces a Sophomore Slump. Djokovic to me is an incredible talent. He has a game that can be effective on all surfaces. Djokovic looked impressive throughout 2007 nearly matching Federer and Nadal stride for stride until he hit October. At that point Djokovic started to look tired. At the Masters Cup, Nadal, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet all destroyed Djokovic even though surfaces should have favored the Serbian. Everyone on tour has seen Djokovic play now and a book exists on how to play against him. This is an obstacle every elite player must face. If Djokovic can shake off his poor play from the Fall, then his game should grow as he faces the book on playing him and learns how to deflect that strategy. If Djokovic becomes Safin II, all bets are off.

5. Federer will Finish 2008 #1 but May Not Run the Table Every Week. Roger Federer should still be able to pile up points during each phase of the nearly 11 month tennis season to finish the year #1. He is tennis' most complete player ever and that obviously includes the present season. If Federer stays healthy, he should be #1 when the dust settles in 2008. Nadal, Djokovic and maybe David Nalbandian have enough computer points from 2007 accumulated to claim the #1 ranking over a 52 week period. Roger Federer has held the #1 ranking for 204 consecutive weeks. That streak stands a 50-50 chances of being broken in 2008, but if Nadal does not claim #1 after an Australian Open win, Federer should continue his consecutive weeks mark at least through early July 2008.

Two Time Slam Winner Rankings for the Open Era

Some players are branded with the title "one slam wonder." Among the single slam winners one finds long shots such as Thomas Johansson and Gaston Gaudio as well as accomplished players such as Michael Chang and Thomas Muster. Some one slam winners rank ahead of two slam winners in my historical lists, but two time grand slam winners in general have cleared a hurdle that their one time brethren never did. Here are my rankings of the two slam winners:

1. Lleyton Hewitt – The feisty Aussie is not the most talented on this list, but he has spent 80 weeks at #1, won Wimbledon in 2002 and the U.S. Open in 2001, won the Masters Cup twice and was runner-up at the 2004 U.S. Open and 2005 Australian Open. Hewitt has any number of Grand Slam quarterfinal and semifinal appearances and tournament victories to go along with his consistent excellence between 2000-2004.*

2. Marat Safin – Had (has?) the talent to achieve much more. Safin won both the 2000 U.S. Open and 2005 Australian Open in impressive fashion. Safin was runner-up at the Australian Open in 2002 and 2004. Safin on his game has frustrated Federer, Sampras and Agassi. Too bad he has not been on his game more consistently. Safin reached the French Open quarterfinals in 2000 and the semifinals in 2002. He reached the 2001 Wimbledon quarterfinals and added a U.S. Open semifinal in 2001.*

3. Yevgeny Kafelnikov – The Russian would rank higher if doubles counted, but still he is the only player other than Hewitt to win his two slams on two markedly different surfaces. Kafelnikov won the 1996 French Open title with wins over Sampras and Michael Stich. He won the 1999 Australian Open as well. Kafelnikov thrived down under with a runner-up finish at the 2000 Australian Open, quarterfinal finishes in 1995 and 1996 and a Gold Medal at the 2000 Sydney Olympics. Kafelnikov reached the French Open semifinals in 1995 and quarterfinals in 1997, 2000 and 2001. He reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals in 1995 and the U.S. Open semifinals in 1999 and 2001.

4. Patrick Rafter – His two U.S. Open victories were impressive especially his 1998 U.S. Open title where he beat Pete Sampras, Goran Ivanesevic, and Mark Philippoussis en route to his title. Rafter finished as the runner-up at Wimbledon in 2000 and 2001. He reached the semifinal round at the 1997 French Open, 1999 Wimbledon Championships and 2001 Australian Open. Rafter has more of a fighting spirit than Kafelnikov or Safin, but his results are slightly more sparse so he is placed fourth.

5. Sergi Bruguera – He launched the Spanish Armada by winning the French Open in 1993 and 1994. These victories ushered in a period of Spanish victories in Paris that continues today (See: Nadal, Rafael). Bruguera was also a French Open runner-up in 1997. He largely avoided Wimbledon despite reaching the 1994 round of 16 and pushing Stich to five sets in a Davis Cup match on grass in Germany in 1994. Bruguera never reached a quarterfinal at a Grand Slam not played on clay. He did win a Silver Medal on a hard court at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics.

6. Johan Kriek – The South African won the Australian Open in both 1981 and 1982. His championship victory in each event was over Steve Denton a little known U.S. born player who now coaches Texas A&M's men's team. Give Kriek credit for winning two major titles, but at this time the Australian Open was not drawing the top players in the world. Kriek was winnless vs. Bjorn Borg (0-2), Ivan Lendl (0-10), Mats Wilander(0-5), and Boris Becker (0-3). He did go 5-12 vs. John McEnroe, 2-7 vs. Jimmy Connors, and 3-6 vs. Stefan Edberg. Regardless, Kriek is just not in the same league as the other 5 players listed.

* Active player

Federer's 10 Biggest Accomplishments of 2007

It was mentioned by Dick Enberg that Roger Federer seems to make history with every match he wins. At this point, that seems true as his legend is already cemented. Here are Federer's 10 biggest historical achievements of 2007.

1. First man to ever win 3 Slams in a single season 3 different times
2. First man to reach 10 consecutive Grand Slam finals (or further)
3. First man to reach 14 consecutive Grand Slam semifinals (or further)
4. Broke Jimmy Connors' record of 160 consecutive weeks at #1 (204 and counting)
5. First man since Bjorn Borg (1976-80) to win 5 consecutive Wimbledon titles
6. First man since Bjorn Borg's 1980 French Open win to win a Grand Slam title without losing a set in taking the 2007 Australian Open
7. First man since Bill Tilden 1920-1925 to win 4 or more consecutive U.S. Open/U.S. Championship titles.
8. Extended his all time best Grass Court winning streak from 48 matches to 54 matches and counting
9. Moved into a tie with Roy Emerson for second place in the all time on Grand Slam singles titles race at twelve. Sampras holds the overall mark at 14, but had 10 at the same point in his career.
10. Moved into second place with 4 season ending championships one behind Ivan Lendl and Pete Sampras' record mark of 5 season ending titles.

Honorable Mentions: Led the tour in tournament titles for the 5th consecutive year, finished 4 consecutive years at #1, finished his 3rd consecutive year of holding the #1 ranking for every week of the given calendar year, won his 14th and 15th Masters Series titles (2nd all time to Agassi's 17), won his 50th career singles tournament title in Cincinnati, and finished his 6th consecutive season in the top 10.