Across the Net 1.14.08: The 2008 Australian Open Preview

Posted by Dan Martin on 01.14.2008

A New Surface, a New Year, the Same Results?

Preface: Plenty of Storylines on Both Sides of the Draw

The New Year in tennis is already two weeks old. Several small tournaments and exhibition events have already been put in the books. Rafael Nadal's four hour 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 victory in India over friend Carlos Moya has already set a high standard for matches in 2008. Justine Henin has continued her winning streak. Still, out with the old and in with the new right? The Williams Sisters are both reportedly healthy and prepared. Maria Sharapova has claimed she is ready to shake off a bad 2007. Lindsey Davenport looks to continue a remarkable comeback. Any number of men's players are ready to try to derail Roger Federer. Younger players such as Richard Gasquet are seeking confirmation that they are indeed worthy of being in the top 10. Established players such as Andy Roddick seek to demonstrate they still have it. Good tennis is the result at any time when established players have not passed their primes and up and coming players are just entering their primes. In short, both tours have plenty of contenders for this year's Australian Open.

Men's Preview: New Surface Could Tilt Things

The word on the new surface is that it plays slow with a high bounce, but that it is more consistent than the old Rebound Ace the Australian Open used. More importantly it is less likely to respond poorly to extreme heat. Many players feared rolling an ankle Down Under when the court would get hot and sticky grabbing a tennis shoe when a player is trying to change directions. Fewer injuries makes the new surface an immediate improvement, but I still think the Australian Open would be better served with a faster surface. Here is my breakdown of each quarter of the draw:

Roger Federer has a reasonably tough draw. His first round opponent Diego Hartfield gave Federer a tough match in the first round at the 2006 French Open. John Isner or Fabrice Santoro could be tricky second round opponents. Each is unique in their play. Fernando Verdasco or Juan Monaco will not be an easy third round match. Federer ought to navigate those challenges and reach the quarterfinals where a rematch with 2007 Australian Open runner-up Fernando Gonzalez looms. Gonzo beat Federer in November so that ought to be interesting if it occurs.

Novak Djokovic put a lot of distance between himself and the rest of the field ranked behind him as he staked claim to the world #3 ranking. His play in October and November 2007 left a lot to be desired and suggested he had overplayed during the first 9 months of the tennis season. Also, many players now have seen him play and have a strategy for facing him so this could be a difficult year or it could be a march toward Grand Slam glory. This draw did Djokovic no favors. His first round match with Benjamin Becker is dangerous. Dmitry Tursunov in the third round is also not a cake walk. Lleyton Hewitt, Marat Safin or Marcos Baghdatis will await in the round of sixteen. Finally, either dogged David Ferrer or red hot David Nalbandian will be a quarterfinal obstacle for Djokovic.

Nikolay Davydenko may be facing the scrutiny of a gambling probe, but his draw is not stressful. Nicholas Mahut or Jose Acasuso could challenge the fourth ranked Russian in the second round. Stanislas Wawrinka and Mikhail Youzhny are both capable of knocking Davydenko out before the quarterfinals. In the quarterfinals, Davydenko is seeded to play either Richard Gasquet or Andy Murray who will each seek to further their quest to become elite players. Davydenko is not a lock to reach the semifinals, but this draw is soft enough that Youzhny, Davydenko, Murray and Gasquet have to be happy.

Rafael Nadal has to be pleased with a slower less taxing surface in Australia. No one plays better on slow surfaces today and his physical style no longer has to absorb the slings and arrows of Rebound Ace. Carlos Moya or Paul-Henri Mathieu could push Nadal before the quarterfinals, but this draw to the final eight is the easiest of the top four seeds. The quarterfinals could pit Nadal against Andy Roddick who also sees clear waters until the final eight.

Predictions: Semifinals Federer d. Nalbandian 3-6, 7-5, 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 Nadal d. Gasquet 4-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 Championship Federer d. Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 7-6, 6-2

Women's Preview: Henin vs. the Field?

Justine Henin has a good draw through to the quarterfinals. Tatiana Golovin might give her an interesting set, but no one can beat Justine prior to the quarterfinals. Fifth seeded Maria Sharapova faces a very stiff second round test vs. Lindsey Davenport. If both play at their highest level, three sets later Sharapova should win. However, I think Davenport is far more likely to play at her optimal level than Sharapova so I pick the upset. Davenport will then reach the quarterfinals and push Henin.

Jelena Jankovic has been one of the most consistent players on the women's tour and that should serve her well. 2006 champion Amelie Mauresmo might be worth keeping an eye on, but Jankovic should reach the quarterfinals. Defending champion Serena Williams should be there to face Jankovic. Nicole Vaidisova was a semifinalist last year losing to Serena, but since then her fortunes have shrunk. Vaidisova could recapture her promise with a win over Williams and Jankovic, but don't bet on it.

Ana Ivanovic comes in as the fourth seed. She is a star in the making and the tour would love to market her. I won't go into why because I think marketing sex appeal is a bad idea for the WTA, but they would love to market her. Her draw is soft to the quarterfinals where Venus Williams will await. Venus has a few obstacles in Marion Bartoli and Sania Mirza, but she should reach the quarterfinals.

Svetlana Kuznetsova may be the most non-descript world #2 ever despite having won one Grand Slam event and finishing as a runner-up at two others. The computer says she is number two, but I would rank her behind Justine Henin, Serena Williams, Venus Williams, Ivanovic, Jankovic and Sharapova. Anna Chakvetadze, Agnieszka Radwanska, Agnes Szavay, and Nadia Petrova have to feel good about being in Kuznetsova's section of the draw. My gut says it is now or never for Petrova and I see her making the semifinals.

Women's Prediction Semifinals Henin d. Serena Williams 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, Venus Williams d. Petrova 6-3, 6-1 Championship Henin d. Venus Williams 7-6, 6-2

There you have it. Once again I picked the top two players in the world to win the title. Boring, but it worked for me at the U.S. Open. The new surface is an x-factor for everyone so things being equal I went with the top players. Nevertheless, David Nalbandian and Lindsey Davenport are both capable of being a bracket buster.