Across the Net 1.21.08: Australian Open 2008 Rounding into Week 2

Posted by ikabod Crane on 01.21.2008

Roddick is out, 5 set matches for Federer, Baghdatis, Hewitt and Safin, and the women’s draw holds form during week 1.

Andy Roddick Ousted in 3rd Round Thriller

Andy Roddick can hardly be blamed for his play in losing to Philipp Kohlschreiber in a five set thriller. Special K won 6-4, 3-6, 7-6, 6-7, 8-6 in an incredibly clean match. However, in a similar fashion to his 5 set loss to Richard Gasquet at the 2007 Wimbledon Championships his opponent had a ridiculous ratio of winners to errors. Why does this happen to Roddick? Well Roddick seemingly is attacking the net at all times when serving. Given that his volleys are not overly sound and his approach shots are not of the Stefan Edberg variety, Roddick does watch a fair share of passing shots fly by after either a poor first volley or a weak approach shot. Roddick is not slow by any means, but he is also not a great defensive player so when he does get into a baseline rally it is possible to also hit winners in those situations after working over the suspect Roddick backhand. Therefore, his opponents do not have to take a lot of risks to hit winners versus Roddick. I am not trying to pile on Roddick. He did just anchor a 2007 Davis Cup title run for the U.S. Roddick has been in the top ten since 2003 and tends to post good results in every phase of the season except for the clay court season. Roddick played great tennis against Roger Federer last September in New York. He can still reach big matches and post big results, but with players such as Kohlschreiber challenging Roddick along with the established elite being ahead of him the mountain to climb for glory is getting steeper. The 2008 Wimbledon and U.S. Open events will say a lot about where Roddick's career is headed. Given that Kohlschreiber lost to Jarkko Niemenin in a similarly close match, I have to feel Roddick should have come through and played up to his seeding so this is a tough loss for Andy.

Federer, Hewitt, Baghdatis, and Safin Provide Fireworks

Roger Federer had won 28 consecutive sets at the Australian Open prior to losing the first set to Janko Tipsarevic. Federer eventually won 6-7, 7-6, 5-7, 6-1, 10-8. Marcos Baghdatis defeated 2005 champion Marat Safin 6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 3-6, 6-2. Baghdatis' reward was Lleyton Hewitt in the 3rd round where Hewitt finished off the Cypriot 4-6, 7-5, 7-5, 6-7, 6-3. These lengthy matches are difficult to televise on one hand because it is hard to set aside program blocks for an indefinite sporting event, but it is sure fun for a fan to see the match go four or five hours.

Spain, Tsonga and Youzhny Look Strong

Rafael Nadal is through to his second consecutive Australian Open quarterfinal and has yet to drop a set. World #5 David Ferrer is through to the round of 16. Former #1 and 2003 French Open champion Juan Carlos Ferrero crushed David Nalbandian 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 to set up a showdown with Ferrer. These 3 Spaniards have all looked sharp. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is winning fans with his charisma, and his big serve has pushed him into the quarterfinals. Mikhail Youzhny won an event in India to start 2008 and has pushed through to the Australian Open quarterfinals in impressive style.

The Women's Draw Holds Up for the Most Part, but Showdowns Loom

World #2 Svetlana Kuznetsova and 2006 champion Amelie Mauresmo are both out of the Australian Open, but neither result could be considered shocking. The talented Mauresmo has not been healthy since summer 2006. It is quite possible she may never return to top form. The computer rankings are the only entity that considers Kuznetsova the #2 female tennis player in the world. That is not a knock against Kuznetsova, but she just is a level below 6 or 7 other players.

Most of the world's best women reside in the top half of the draw. Defending champion Serena Williams faces off against world #3 Jelena Jankovic in the quarterfinals. This match-up would normally be the best quarterfinal one could hope for except for the fact world #1 Justine Henin faces a renewed Maria Sharapova in the other quarterfinal. Of course, the two survivors will face off in one of the semifinal matches. I think Serena is a solid but not overwhelming favorite versus Jankovic. Sharapova is playing unreal tennis and looks to be healthy and confident again. Justine Henin is simply the best player in the world. That match is almost impossible to pick because it is hard for me to imagine either player losing given their current form and momentum. This may not be King Kong vs. Godzilla, but this is a match between the two top players in the draw to this point.

The bottom half of the draw has its own blockbuster quarterfinal in world #4 Ana Ivanovic and Venus Williams. The 6'1" Venus Williams has more experience and mobility than the 6' Ivanovic, but both play with enough power that this could go either way. The winner will likely face a cagey youngster from Poland named Agnieszka Radwanska in the semifinal round. The youngster is a crafty player who might sneak through and become a star next week. I still think Venus Williams will play through to the championship round, but great tennis looms.

I know my column generally focuses more on the men's tour, but this is because of the greater depth in the men's game. Simply put, the ATP tour normally puts on more close matches than does the WTA. The WTA has to be happy that the women's draw will produce 3 marquee quarterfinal matches, two great semifinals and an exciting final. Competition between great players is entertaining regardless of gender. I was as fired up about tennis as I have ever been when watching Monica Seles take down Steffi Graf in three electric sets at the 1992 French Open final or in watching Graf come from behind and defeat Martina Hingis in the 1999 French Open final (I was a Graf fan so Seles' win was exciting, but ...). With the exception of Mauresmo's three set triumph over Henin in the 2006 Wimbledon final women's tennis has not produced a lot of great matches recently. That trend looks to be reversing itself. I for one am fired up about that.

Sticking by my Picks

Admittedly, David Nalbandian and Richard Gasquet will not be in the men's semifinals, but I still expect Federer and Nadal to reach the men's final. Djokovic, Ferrer, Youzhny and Tsonga all may derail this pick. I still see Venus Williams losing to Justine Henin in the women's final, but perhaps the winner of the top half of the draw will be mentally and physically shot. In that case, Venus may take home her first Aussie Open title. Federer and Henin are #1 for now so I stay with them, but the depth on both tours is better than it has been so nothing is going to be easy for either number one.