The Starting Five 1.30.08: Super Bowl Preview
Posted by Jason Goodman on 01.30.2008
So, apparently there's some sort of "thing" this Sunday. I hope it doesn't interrupt my Simpsons and Family Guy reruns.
The 2007/08 New England Patriots. For the rest of history, when that name is uttered, only one thing will come to mind: Perfection. Coming into the season with high expectations, the Patriots have essentially mowed through the entire league, setting records on offense which may not be reached for years to come. Tom Brady; a Quarterback who was already on the road to Hall of Fame, has seemingly moved into the fast lane to Immortality. Randy Moss; a virtual prodigy at Wide Receiver who, after becoming much maligned as his career enters its latter stages, has managed to keep his critics at bay. Bill Bellachick; A coach who will do anything to put his team in a position to win, a trait that landed him in the hottest of water at the opening of the season, and brought any past accomplishments into question, will not feel his job is done until he manages to bring a fourth Lombardi Trophy to Foxboro. A team so effective on both sides of the ball, it can only be described as a machine, some may say the Championship has been theirs for the taking all along.
The 2007/08 New York Giants. As the season opened, nothing but questions abounded. Certainly not expected to succeed, the football world simply wondered aloud "what level of mediocrity will this team reach?" Coming into Super Bowl XLII, they are now a team who apparently has all the momentum. The definition of scrappy, and winners of 7 out of their last 10, and owners of an impressive 1-loss road record, New York has steamrolled their way onto the big stage, despite injuries, despite low expectations. Eli Manning; Publicly called out for his lack of leadership skill, his cool and collected demeanor has helped guide his team, and reminded everyone exactly what his last name is. Michael Strahan; He knows he isn't much longer for this sport, and wants nothing more than one more chance at that elusive ring – and to eliminate the bitter taste of his last Super Bowl appearance. Tom Coughlin; While they say you can't teach an old dog new tricks, this grizzled vet of the sidelines managed to modify his hardnosed ways, gaining the confidence and loyalty of all his players. Confidence breeds success, and the Giants are riding high on both right now, poised to attempt the seemingly-impossible: They want to simply stop perfection in its tracks, and stand atop the mountain as "World Beaters."
The Starting 5: Matchups in Super Bowl XLII
Hi Everyone, and Welcome Back to The Starting 5! I want to give you my view of what I'll be watching closely during this year's Big Game, and I think we should get right to it! Beforehand, let's just get one thing straight: Tom Brady is playing in Arizona this coming weekend. We're talking about the same guy who was listed all season on the Patriots' injury report. He's fine, end of story. I don't have to talk much about him, because we all know what he can do. So I won't. Here are your things to look for:
1. Eli Manning vs Inconsistency
Somewhere, among all the claims that Eli Manning has "finally arrived," there is a voice. All it does is say "come on, he's bound to mess up sometime." Or I'm just hearing things again, not really sure. The fact of the matter is, Eli is going to be pressured in the most hellacious of manners, with New England ready to do whatever it takes to rattle him into making foolish decisions. So far, in this year's playoffs, Manning has produced, going 53/85, for 599 yards with 4 touchdown passes. Most importantly, he's had ZERO turnovers. Only one other quarterback has zero turnovers this postseason, and that's San Diego's Billy Volek – during his brief cup of coffee against the Colts. The question is, with the savvy group of veterans staring at him from across the line of scrimmage, can Eli continue to stay cool under the pressure? Take this into account: One of Manning's best games of the season came against New England in week 17. This was also, however, the last time he committed a turnover (1 interception). The Giants will need a steady, accurate Manning for any chance of winning. For the young QB, who's expected to play second fiddle to the NFL's best this season, perhaps the pressure is just a voice. One he can effectively keep on "mute" this Sunday.
2. Laurence Maroney vs the Giants' D-Line
I am a longstanding believer in the idea of a powerful running game opening up a passing attack. It has also been my belief that Laurence Maroney's domination has been carrying the Patriots through two tough AFC opponents. He's posted back-to-back games of 122 yards with a touchdown, each coming on 25 carries or less. He's also managed to do it against two very solid, aggressive defenses (Jacksonville ranked 7th in the league overall, San Diego rounded out the top 10). That being said, in week 17, off nearly the same number of attempts, the Giants (4th overall in the league, by the way) held him to under 50 yards. Rest assured, if Maroney is able to get a full head of steam, Tom Brady's job will become just that much easier.
3. Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer vs. New England Cornerbacks
Plaxico has already gone on record, saying that his receiving corps is just as talented as New England's. I don't know if that's so, but I do know they share the same ability to make big plays. Eli's proven he can get anyone on this team the ball, provided they're ready to catch it. In the NFC championship game both Burress and Amani Toomer(one of only two remaining Giants players from the 2000 Super Bowl squad) dropped crucial passes. Eli was able to recover, and the D-Line was able to prevent Green Bay from going nuts. It will NOT be so "easy" this time around. Plaxico was able to play tough against a skilled defender in Al Harris, but he's going to need to up his intensity level even more in order to make an impact this weekend.
4. Randy Moss/Wes Welker vs. New York Cornerbacks
Part of the reason the Giants had success up in Lambeau Field was that they made a point of it to take away the short slant routes. Wes Welker made his bread and butter running those very same routes all season, en route to a NFL-record 112 receptions (most ever for a player in his first season with a new team, and a franchise record as well). The majority of his impact came from the fact that every team in the league was double-teaming his receiving corps-mate Randy Moss. Moss had a stellar, record-breaking first season in Foxboro, but has yet to make the truly big splash this postseason. If there was any time to do it, it would be on the biggest stage he's ever been on, in front of a possible record crowd of viewers. New York can't afford to double-team, as their secondary is practically a M.A.S.H. unit already, so they will need the same combination of determination and hustle that's carried them this far. New England needs to regain the dominating air game which could take over at any point, against any team.
5. Matt Light and Shaun O'Hara – Men on a Mission
Finally, let's take a look at two men whose stat lines will not be mentioned in the postgame report. For the Patriots, all Matt Light has to do is buy Brady time to find the open man. This is made a bit easier by the absence of the injured DE Mathias Kiwanuka. Unfortunately, there is still Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Kawika Mitchell, and the rejuvenated Michael Strahan (the other remaining member from the 2000 team) to contend with. If they can get past him and the rest of the offensive line, Brady will be feeling pressure all day long.
Shaun O'Hara's job is quite similar, except his focus will be mainly on defensive tackle Vince Wilfork. New England boasts a solid core at defense, and for the Giants to make any kind of headway in the running game, they cannot afford to throw double-teams at this man. If O'Hara can do the job, the offensive line can open up lanes for Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, and an upset is very likely.
That's all I've got for you this week. Sorry for the lack of photos, but work is a bit more hectic than I would like it to be right now. Regardless, "Get'cha Popcorn Ready," and do enjoy the game!
Something that hasn't been mentioned that much in the whole "The Giants pressured the Pats with only 4 rushers" is the fact that the Patriots were missing 40 percent of their starting O-line, AND ALL of their tight ends; guys that will all be there (and healthy) in the Super Bowl on Sunday.
The Giants also had a return for a touchdown AND a garbage time touchdown in a prevent defense. The Giants will have to be flawless AND create turnovers to win in a perfect weather situation (something the Pats haven't had in almost 2 months.
Posted By: Krunchy (Guest) on January 30, 2008 at 01:29 AM
Garbage touchdown? Did you watch the game in week 17? I don't consider being up by barely 2 scores a garbage time. A garbage touchdown is when you are losing by 17 with 1 minutes to go. Not down by ten with a chance to win the game with an onside kick. Speaking of injuries, O'Hara was injured in that game and they still did a great job of blocking Wilfork. Simple fact is that game until the Pats recovered the onside kick was so close. The Giants played the Pats better than anyone except the Ravens (who the refs cost them the game on 3 calls). Giants were missing people, so was the Pats. Giants were not as hot as they are now. This game will come down to the Giants defense. If they shut down the run game, which they can, shut down Moss which they already did and shut down Welker, then they got this game won. Pats defense is good but they can be pushed over, just look what Jacksonvillle did and their offense was not that good during the game. The Pats are dependent upon there offense to win, if that gets shut down, Giants take it home. If not, the Pats go undefeated. It comes down to the oline,Moss, Welker and Maronney. They will determine the outcome of the game.
Posted By: Havok (Guest) on January 30, 2008 at 04:03 PM
Actually did watch the game. It wasn't that close. The Giants 2nd touchdown was a fluke kick-off return, and the score at one point was 28-16 in favor of the Giants (early 2nd half) and from that point, the Patriots scored 22 points without the Giants doing much of anything until that last garbage drive (the Patriots made sure they didn’t score too early, and tried to keep big plays to a minimum ala prevent defense, the biggest yardage gainer for a play was a 15 yard penalty to Rodney Harrison) so I would call that a garbage drive. I don’t ever consider it a good thing when you have to rely on an onside kick for a chance to win, that isn’t a “close” game; that is a game where you are losing by double digits. I didn’t say the Giants-Pats game in week 17 was a blowout, it just wasn’t as close as people are making it out to be.
If the Giants can shut down the running game which they can (ummm, once again, they were missing 2 starters from the O-line, and only had one TE dressed, meaning many 4 WR sets; not exactly running formations) and shut down Moss which they already did (ummm, Moss had 6 catches for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Giants) AND shutdown Welker (how many D-backs are going to be out there to cover both of them AND Gaffney, Stallworth, and a scat-back and/or Ben Watson? Are they going to rush 2 people?)
The Patriots defense is built on a bend-don’t-break philosophy, where the opponent can have ALL the yardage they want up to the Pat’s 25 yard line, after that, you have to earn it. What Jacksonville did was put up field-goals after a few touchdowns, the Patriots answered with Touchdowns. Let the opponent score 3 points, and then you answer with 7. Every time you do that, you’ve outscored them by 4, which is a really easy equation to handle if you are the Pats. Then, any turnover the Pats get, you are up by even more.
Perhaps there will be a perfect storm that comes and derails the Patriots season, but that’s what it will take.
Posted By: Krunchy (Guest) on January 30, 2008 at 10:21 PM
There is no such thing as a fluke return touchdown. That's like saying Moss's record breaking touchdown was a fluke because of missed coverage which is why he scored. The onside kick to win it meant that the game was still up in the air with less than 2 mins to play. I consider that a damn close game. How can any game which is still up for grabs under 2-minutes be considered not that close.
I don't think the other Pat's recievers can win the game against the Giants. Meaning that is the running game is shut down, Moss and Welker,the other guys aren't incredible stars who can win the game on their own. A running game can win on its own. MOss can win on his own. Welker and his slants can win on his own. All with Brady of course,but that goes without saying. I just think if the Giant's D can contain them,they can win it. Those three are your huge play-makers who will determine the outcome,with Brady of course.
Yes the Pats were missing lineman from the first game but the Giants DL was not nearly as hot as they are now. Strahan, Tuck and Osi are 3 incredible lineman. Also not to say they Pats running game sucks, cause it doesn't, but the Pats are a pass first team. That's their strength. The running game has been hit or miss most of the season. Where as the pass has been on all year long.
What they need to do is man cover Welker, man cover Stallworth, linebacker cover Gaffney(who is having his worst season yet), man cover moss with a saftey always there for help. That leaves the other saftey to roam. Which puts a linebacker on the TE. That leaves the 4 dl to get pressure and stop the run with the occassional saftey blitz and backer blitz. You have to remember when NE puts 5 recievers out that means no one is in the backfield for help.
If the Pats d is so go at bend don't break what happened in the Ravens/Eagles/Giants game? They are good, but not as good as they were years ago. Had LT been 100% there is no way NE would have shutdown SD everytime in the redzone. Although rivers by himself sucks and that showed how much better the pats d is than him. The Giants the last 4 games have been great in the redzone with touchdowns.
To say that a perfect storm must take place for the pats to lose indicates that there is next to no chance of the Giants winning. Yes the Pats are heavy favorites but I would hardly ever put money on some making to the superbowl and being no threat to their opponent. Giants aren't pretty but they beat 2 of the four best teams in football to get here. Games in Dallas and GB. The only better team the Giants have not played in the last 4 weeks were the colts. Giants are hot right now and CAN win this game. The game is not decided yet. Brady will be good, Giants will score,comes down to Giants D vs Moss,Welker,run game
Posted By: Havok (Guest) on January 31, 2008 at 12:23 AM
I'll make this semi-quick since I have to get back to work. It was a fluke return touchdown; the kickoff was from the 15 yard line of the Patriots for the excessive celebration of Moss' 1st touchdown. I would say that being 10 points down to an undefeated team with 4 minutes left to play is definitely not a blow-out, but is also certainly not as “close” as you think. Assuming that even IF the Giants recovered the kick at say their 40 yard line, they would have to move it ummmm, with Tynes kicking, another 35 yards without a time-out, and no threat of play-action in about a minute, to TIE the game. All that effort just to climb back INTO the game. Still doesn’t seem like it was that close to me.
When a coach game-plans, does he say "OK, we'll score a rushing touchdown, a passing touchdown, a kick-off return for a touchdown, and then with a few minutes left we'll score a touchdown, then recover an onside kick to hopefully get a field goal to go into overtime."
As for your scenario, I would bet that even Freddie Mitchell could get a decent match-up against a linebacker 1 on 1; any coach would love to have a wide-out matched up with a LB; hell, they are happy when a TE isolates a LB.
Also, you have 5 defensive backs (Nickel package) with a LB helping out on one of the wide-outs. That leaves 4 D-Line guys and a MLB. You pull something like that, and the Pats would just put Kevin Faulk in the backfield with the 4 wide-outs, and there’d be only 6 guys in the box if they chose to run, or run a play action pass, and figure ONE of the man coverage will bite on the run, leaving someone extremely open; or they could send Faulk out in the flat, and have a speedy little RB against the other LB on a screen or slant. You don’t think that the Pats would LOVE this scenario? The Patriots offense is hard to stop. They can beat you with the long-ball, they can beat you with dink and dunk passing, and they can beat you with a power running game. Commit to stopping something, and they’ll just counter it. To beat them, you’ll have to outscore them.
Leading to the defense:
If I recall against Philly, they had 3 INT’s. They said, if Philly is going to beat us, it’ll have to be Feely, and he almost did it. They held Westbrook to 50 or so yards of rushing. I also believe that is the game they lost Colvin for the season, and a starting DB in Randall Gay. Not an excuse, but 2 starters go down in any game and it takes a bit to adjust. As far as Baltimore, the defense definitely coughed up a hairball; McGahee has always played well against the Patriots. I’ve already mentioned the Giants before; I think they’ll score 20-28 points. However, the Patriots will score at least 30.
The Chargers had the best defense in the playoffs; and although the Patriots “only” sc
Posted By: Krunchy (Guest) on February 01, 2008 at 11:23 AM
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