Green Flag 2.07.08: Predictions-a-Plenty
Posted by Jim Carson on 02.07.2008
Check back in the fall to see how lousy these picks were.
That football game with the Roman numeral is now in the past, so now our attention can rightly turn to college basketball for the next two months and motorsports for the next nine months. But for race fans and the offending sanctioning bodies of NASCAR and NHRA, there's a lesson to be learned from the Super Bowl.
The Patriots went 18-0 before their defense let them down a bit in Arizona, and the Giants' pass rush had its best outing of the season. As a result, the Foxboro contingent fell short of the ultimate goal, a championship, even though the Pats were easily the #1 story of the entire NFL season (even without Spygate). You want someone who sympathizes with the Pats? Jeff Gordon, after the "chase" bullshit robbed him of his fifth title in TSFKA Nextel Cup. You can also include Greg Anderson in NHRA Pro Stock in the same boat, at least more than the other two drag racers that were screwed by last year's debut "countdown" excrement. The point I'm making is that stories like the 2007-08 Giants, the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, and Valvano's 1982-83 N.C. State team are fine in the stick and ball sports, but they're NOT all right in racing (Kurt Busch, anyone?). Just because somebody who's way behind gets on a hot streak at the ideal time doesn't mean he and his team get remembered as the only thing that matters for an entire season.
Before we get to the 2008 Green Flag Prediction Spectacular, let's take one final look at the proper 2007 standings:
---NASCAR NEXTEL CUP
1. Jeff Gordon, 5455
2. Jimmie Johnson, 5102
3. Tony Stewart, 4749
4. Matt Kenseth, 4718
5. Denny Hamlin, 4623
6. Kyle Busch, 4585
7. Carl Edwards, 4574
8. Clint Bowyer, 4556
9. Jeff Burton, 4549
10. Kurt Busch, 4371
11. Kevin Harvick, 4344
12. Martin Truex Jr., 4314
13. Ryan Newman, 4046
14. Greg Biffle, 3991
---NHRA TOP FUEL
1. Rod Fuller, 1637
2. Larry Dixon, 1478
3. Tony Schumacher, 1472
4. Brandon Bernstein, 1451
5. J.R. Todd, 1242
6. Bob Vandergriff, 1214
7. Melanie Troxel, 1173
8. Doug Herbert, 1087
9. Doug Kalitta, 1045
10. Dave Grubnic, 1023
11. Whit Bazemore, 989
12. Cory McClenathan, 986
13. Hillary Will, 892
14. Clay Millican, 816
---NHRA FUNNY CAR
1. Robert Hight, 1408
2. Ron Capps, 1393
3. Tony Pedregon, 1374
4. Jack Beckman, 1219
5. Gary Scelzi, 1210
6. Mike Ashley, 1201
7. John Force, 1093
8. Del Worsham, 1050
9. Jim Head, 966
10. Ashley Force, 960
11. Jeff Arend, 934
12. Cruz Pedregon, 925
13. Tommy Johnson Jr., 916
14. Kenny Bernstein, 903
---NHRA PRO STOCK
1. Greg Anderson, 1898
2. Dave Connolly, 1773
3. Jeg Coughlin, 1614
4. Allen Johnson, 1279
5. Jason Line, 1228
6. Kurt Johnson, 1137
7. Richie Stevens, 1056
8. V. Gaines, 1025
9. Larry Morgan, 999
10. Warren Johnson, 963
11. Jim Yates, 871
12. Greg Stanfield, 843
13. Max Naylor, 829
14. Kenny Koretsky, 722
---NHRA PRO STOCK MOTORCYCLE
1. Matt Smith, 1329
2. Andrew Hines, 1217
3. Angelle Sampey, 1030
4. Chip Ellis, 1031
5. Peggy Llewellyn, 903
6. Craig Treble, 850
7. Karen Stoffer, 829
8. Eddie Krawiec, 799
9. Steve Johnson, 746
10. Antron Brown, 708
11. Chris Rivas, 669
12. Matt Guidera, 645
13. Hector Arana, 593
14. Geno Scali, 565
SPRINT. POWER UP. AT LEAST UNTIL MY PICKS START TANKING
Here's your top almost-half of the 2008 November standings. Well, they're mine, anyway.
20. Dave Blaney, #22 Caterpillar Toyota, Bill Davis Racing. Blaney had the worst luck of just about anybody in the first two months and never recovered. Nearly three months is plenty of time to recover.
19. Dario Franchitti, #40 Canadian Club/Energizer Dodge, Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates. An easy choice for rookie of the year. Carpentier and Villeneuve aren't exempt for the first five races, and Hornish will join the go-or-go-home club after Bristol. That leaves Speedwagon and the not-quite-ready-for-prime-time Regan Smith.
18. Kurt Busch, #2 Miller Lite Dodge, Penske Racing South. They don't race Bristol every weekend, Kurt.
17. Jamie McMurray, #26 Crown Royal Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing. Good for his standards, but a little down for the Jack in the Hat.
16. Matt Kenseth, #17 DeWalt Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing. Robbie Reiser has moved from the crew chief role on the #17 to an overall GM job this year. Kenseth and Reiser have been together since Matt became a regular in TSFKA Busch in 1997, so it'll definitely take some adjustment, and there are bound to be some struggles this year.
15. Jeff Burton, #31 AT&T Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing. No more distractions about sponsorship and court cases, but in the meantime Burton has dropped to the unofficial third rung of the Childress ladder.
14. Bobby Labonte, #43 Cheerios Dodge, Petty Enterprises. While Kyle flounders, Bobby L will continue to climb. His new crew chief is Jeff Meendering, who was the second-in-command behind Steve Letarte for Jeff Gordon last year; there was a marked improvement in the #43 the last time a bigwig from the #24 took a job with Petty (Robbie Loomis).
13. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing. Look at it this way. Shrub left Hendrick, or was forced out or whatever. Switching to any other team is probably going to be a downward move.
12. Ryan Newman, #12 Alltel Dodge, Penske Racing South. Sooner or later the Rocketman is going to get bored with winning poles and actually run well for an entire afternoon. Might as well be this year, where he emerges as the top man for the Captain for a change. And it's time for a different Indiana boy to win at the Brickyard.
11. Casey Mears, #5 Kellogg's/CarQuest Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports. Crew chief Alan Gustafson kept Kyle Busch under control; he ought to love having the more mild-mannered Mears around. Plus the Hendrick cars won nine of the 14 Wingboxcar races on oval tracks last year, so this team will remain strong simply by osmosis.
10. Kasey Kahne, #9 Budweiser Dodge, Gillett-Evernham Motorsports. Maybe there's a conspiracy theorist in me, but Kahne is the golden boy for the ram brand, and Budweiser is one of the golden boys of NASCAR sponsors. I don't see either faction allowing the Big Red Machine to have another dog-awful season like in 2007.
9. Kevin Harvick, #29 Pennzoil/Shell Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing. Enough wins to keep Happy happy.
8. Martin Truex Jr., #1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet, Dale Earnhardt Inc. Proof that DEI without Junior will have a bit more impact than a museum. Unfortunately Truex will probably crash a couple of cars so badly that they'll have to be placed in a museum, but he'll win at least one as well.
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 Mountain Dew/National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports. Y'all were just waiting to see his name, right? Nobody should expect instant championship for Junior, but he'll do just fine ... starting with a win in the Daytona 500. You heard it here first.
6. Tony Stewart, #20 Home Depot Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing. The slight slide down the order will be more for the rise of a few other guys (including his teammate) than it is anything Baloney and Zippy are doing.
5. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe's Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports. JJ can't have everything fall his way now, no matter what month it is. The OROFC won't repeat, which wouldn't really be a repeat, but he'll be good enough to spur on his teammate/boss. Did I just spoil something?
4. Clint Bowyer, #07 Jack Daniel's Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing. On the cusp of greatness, and the climb will continue this year.
3. Carl Edwards, #99 Office Depot Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing. Backflip Boy is the only non-Hendricker to win more than once in the Wingboxcars last year. Remember that we're in those things all season.
2. Denny Hamlin, #11 Federal Express Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing. This kid with this team is the real deal, so much so that the Hurricane will be the best hope for the Toyota brand.
1. Jeff Gordon, #24 DuPont Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports. The champ again, and he'll get to keep it this time. There's nothing like stability, especially when you're already at the top of your game.
Other predictions:
- First driver to announce he's leaving his ride after 2008 via his choice: Greg Biffle, but the Jack in the Hat has to get down to four by 2009 anyway. Biffle should take his primary sponsor 3M with him to wherever he goes, possibly a Toyota team (third car for Bill Davis?).
- First driver to announce he's leaving his ride after 2008 via the team's choice: Reed Sorenson. A kid from Georgia who looks like he's 17 and has all the charisma of the dog with the Target bull's-eye on his eye, in the same camp as two more-outgoing foreigners who are probably in the top 10 in skill from all across the racing world. The pressure's really on Reed.
- Teams not exempt in the first five races to climb into the top 35: #83 Brian Vickers, #44 David Reutimann, #2 Kurt Busch (remember that the fake champ swapped owner points in the off-season to assure Hornish would make Daytona through Bristol).
- Teams exempt in the first five races to drop out of the top 35: #77 Sam Hornish Jr. (duh), #28 Travis Kvapil, #70 Jeremy Mayfield.
- No first-time Cup winners this year; Dario Speedwagon will come the closest. The Hendrickers and Gibbs Toyotas will gobble up too many wins.
THERE'S MORE THAN JUST SPRINT CUP IN THIS COLUMN
- NASCAR Nationwide Series: Geez, the championship pool is rather limited here, because at last glance only 18 drivers are planning to run the full season (the rest will be Cup-tied cars with rotating Cup drivers and developmental newcomers). I hate to pick a Cup guy to win TSFKA Busch title again, but until somebody proves he can outrun Backflip Boy more than once in a while, you have to lean toward the #60. Clint Bowyer, David Reutimann and David Ragan are also planning to run both full schedules (BOOOO!), and Bowyer could be Edwards' biggest threat. Top non-Cupper: Johnny Sauter. First-time winners: Ragan, Franchitti, Marcos Ambrose, Brad Keselowski. Rookie of the year: Joey Logano, the Gibbs prodigy who will run all the races once he turns 18 in late May; no Nationwide rookie is planning to run the full schedule this year.
- NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series: Time for a Toyota, and the guy who comes on strong in the second half every year, Johnny Benson. Ron Hornaday, Mike Skinner, Erik Darnell and Todd Bodine (and hopefully Rick Crawford) will challenge. Rookie of the year: Roush road-racing migrant Colin Braun.
- NHRA Top Fuel: Somebody has to knock Tony Schumacher off his perch (actually Rod Fuller did it last year in the eyes of anyone who counts real points), so this year how about Brandon Bernstein. NHRA Funny Car: Jack Beckman, the likeable dude (it's hard to call yourself popular when you're in the same class as John Force) who replaced Spit Bazemore with Don Schumacher's empire at the end of 2006. NHRA Pro Stock: I've been picking Greg Anderson's teammate Jason Line every year and I'm sticking with him, and it's not just because a good friend of mine works in that team's office. NHRA Pro Stock Motorcycle: Matt Smith, who will get over the shock of Angelle on a bike other than a Suzuki (but she'll look good in black).
- Formula One: You think that little bang-ups in the last two races of 2007 are going to discourage Lewis Hamilton and keep him from racking up titles to challenge the number of the great Michael Schumacher? Ain't gonna happen. I won't predict seven championships, but I'll predict one. Ferrari wins the constructors' crown as Felipe Massa establishes himself as an equal to teammate Kimi Raikkonen.
- Indy Racing League: Despite losing Speedwagon, Andretti-Green Racing still has a slight edge over Penske and Ganassi in the power-team department. AGR's top man is Tony Kanaan, and it's his turn. Notice I said "top man." Well, Danica isn't winning a championship, but her first win will come at the Milwaukee Mile. Other points contenders: Dan Wheldon, Marco Andretti, Helio Crazyclimber and his new Penske teammate Ryan Briscoe, and Rahal-Letterman's rebounding driver Ryan Hunter-Reay.
- Champ Car: A 1-2 finish for the Newman-Haas-Lanigan-Kornheiser-Wilbon-Despain-Miller cars, with Justin Wilson edging Graham Rahal. And please, Paul Tracy, please win a race without spinning anybody. Actually, feel free to win five or six times. My PT shirt is still sitting in my dresser next to my Robby Gordon shirt.
- Road racing: A second championship for Scott Pruett and Ganassi in Grand-Am and an 83rd championship for the diesel Audis in the still-boring ALMS.
I guess that just about covers it. Here's hoping that North Carolina will be down in the dumps after losing to Duke, because Clemson brings its 0-53 mark in Chapel Hill Sunday night. Here's also hoping that I'm back in two weeks with an oil pan full of thoughts on the Daytona happenings.
