Across The Net 03.03.08: Dubai and #1 - How Nadal Could Nearly Overtake Federer

Posted by Dan Martin on 03.03.2008

Roger Federer begins his record shattering 215th consecutive week ranked #1 on Monday. Rafael Nadal could cut his lead to a mere 130 ranking points. After 4 years and 7 weeks of Federer consecutively holding the #1 ranking, this seems news worthy even if Nadal cannot overtake Federer before April.

Players of the Week:

Nicholas Almagro shows his clay court form with his second title in Latin America by beating David Nalbandian in Acapulco. Belgian Steve Darcis won his second career title in Memphis, Tennessee. Ukranian Sergiy Stakhovsky won his first career title by defeating Ivan Ljubicic in Croatia. Elena Dementieva won in Dubai in what may be a sign of her coming back from injury problems. Lindsey Davenport won again in Memphis making her post motherhood tennis career that much more decorated. Flavia Pennetta won an event in Mexico. I am not going into this again, but the ATP and WTA holding 6 events in 4 different countries makes no sense and dilutes the tours. Still, this week's winners deserve praise for their victories.

ATP: Dubai and ATP: Las Vegas

Much like CSI, the ATP has dueling events this week. Dubai is star studded with the world's top 4 players Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and David Ferrer holding the top 4 seeds. The increasingly surly Andy Roddick is seeded 6th. All in all 8 of the world's top 10 players are in Dubai just ahead of Masters Series Indian Wells. It is possible that appearance fees are contributing to this phenomenal draw. Roger Federer faces world #12 Andy Murray in the first round because the event only seeds 8 players. Roddick and Ferrero face off in a match to determine who was the #1 player in 2003 (joking). Ferrer gets Tommy Haas in the first round while Nadal has to take on Roddick's Australian Open conqueror Phillip Kohlschreiber right out of the gate. My gut says that neither Federer nor Nadal win Dubai in 2008.

The rankings math could get interesting if Nadal does win Dubai. Federer lost his last match to Andy Murray and has not played a match since Melbourne. Murray is ranked 12th and owns 2 titles in the young 2008 season. If Federer losses in the first round, his ranking will drop by 295 points due to being defending champion. Rafael Nadal won 75 points last year at Dubai and could add 225 points to his ranking total if he wins the crown in Dubai. Federer leads Nadal by 650 points and therefore could leave Dubai with a razor thin 130 computer point lead. Nadal's problem is that he is defending champion at Indian Wells where Federer lost in the first round in 2007. Therefore Federer will likely gain points in Indian Wells with Nadal at best remaining even until Miami. There Nadal could overtake Federer, but that will not be possible until April. Therefore, Federer's 215 consecutive weeks at #1 is assured to at least reach 219 weeks. Jimmy Connors old record was 160 consecutive weeks at #1. That means Roger will have added at least 59 weeks to Jimbo's old mark. Breaking a record by 1 year and 7 weeks is pretty solid, but I think at some point this season, Nadal or Djokovic will snap Federer's consecutive weeks mark.

Las Vegas is not as star studded, but affords its participants the chance to win matches and ranking points prior to Indian Wells without the threat of jet lag. Las Vegas features Fernando Gonzalez, Lleyton Hewitt, Marcos Baghdatis, and Marat Safin. 6'9" John Isner and 6'6" Sam Querrey are also there representing the U.S. Davis Cup's basketball team. In the first round, Hewitt and Safin face off in a rematch of the 2005 Australian Open final. Both men could use a big week in Vegas to revive some of their aspirations. Michael Llorda of France is a player to watch in 2008. He could very well win Las Vegas. Robby Ginepri has quietly had a nice 2008 and is slowly re-climbing the rankings. Rapping and wannabe ladies' man Vince Spadea keeps his sideshow career going and has an interesting first round match with Baghdatis. My gut sees Llorda navigating the draw and finding the winner's circle. The ATP awards 175 points to the Vegas winner and 300 points to the Dubai winner. This makes sense given the differing quality of each event's draw. Such weighting of computer ranking points can help prevent hard court events leading into the U.S. Open feeling squeezed out by almost meaningless post-French Open clay court events in Europe.