411 Sports Fact or Fiction 04.10.08: Tiger at the Masters, Barry Zito, and April Baseball

Posted by Ken Schmidt on 04.10.2008

Round two in the Sports Kid's version of Fact or Fiction pits resident Smart guy Ian Smart up against resident soccer guy Sean Garmer.

We are back again with the second edition of the Sports Kid run Fact or Fiction. In last weeks edition my brother picked up the first win in SKFoF (Sports Kid Fact or Fiction) history. Who will tie my brother for the lead in wins with one? Well first let's meet the participants.

First up is a man has been quiet in the 411 world for a little while. You may know him from ‘Pickin the Corners' and ‘High and In Tight,' he is Ian Smart

And up against him is another Sports Zone member, but he also dabbles in video games and wrestling. We won't hold it against him that his favorite sport to write about is football (and not the football Donovan McNabb plays). You can catch him doing his own , Fact or Fiction (all about soccer), it's Sean Garmer.

As always I will score the arguments and declare a winner when the dust settles.


1. Barry Zito's contract is the worst signing in baseball history.

Ian Smart Fiction (at least not yet) - Barry Zito has been poor since going to San Francisco to say the least, but he still makes all his starts, and his ERA+ is in the 90's (just below the league average). Zito was paid $10 million last year and started 33 games, meaning he cost a little over $300,000 per start and a little less than a million per win- certainly not a bargain. To contrast, in 2001, Denny Neagle signed with the Colorado Rockies a 5-Year $51.5 million contract and gave them two lousy seasons, and was then paid $9 million in 2003 and 2004 and played in only seven games, compiling a 7.90 ERA. Darren Dreifort signed a 5-Year $ 55 Million deal in 2000 and only managed 16 starts over the next three seasons, missed the entire 2002 season, and then became a reliever in 2004, before collecting $13.4 million not to pitch in 2005. Mike Hampton, signed by the Rockies in 2001 to a staggering 8-year $121 million deal, may be the worst of all. Three teams (Rockies, Marlins, and Braves) paid him a combined $28 million not to pitch in either 2006 or 2007. Over the length of the contract, Hampton has been paid $689,418.55 per start and over $2 million per win. In the cases of Hampton and Driefort the problem was injuries, and in the case of Neagle,a prostitute, so one could argue that Zito is the worst signing because he has no excuse for under performing. However, I would argue that as long as Zito takes the mound every fifth day, he cannot be considered the worst signing in baseball history, at least not yet. He pitched appreciably better late in 2007 and could rebound from his poor start to this season. That being said, the fact that there are still six seasons left on his contract, plus a player option for a seventh at $18 million, Zito could certainly find himself saddled with the label of being the worst signing ever by the time his career is over.

Sean Garmer: FICTION. I think Ian hit right on the head with all those nice statistics. I don't think you can call a pitcher that has made almost every start, and pitched decent the worst signing ever. Yeah the money for him is way over inflated, no one should be paid that much. To gauge whether he's worth or not you need to look at what he has on the other side. The Giants hitters are mostly veterans they no longer have that huge bat in the lineup (letting go of Bonds) to bail them out. The pitchers behind Zito aren't that great either, there is only so much that Zito can do on his own. They can't score more than four runs in a game right now, and got beat to shreds by the Brewers. That doesn't encourage a guy that signed for lots of money to see that his team can't help put some runs in his favor. Before you call someone the worst signing ever, look at see how many times he started, and see how well the team was that bats for him.

Scoring: Though I do love a man who can throw statistics around I think Smart went over board with way to many obscure players, Mike Hampton would have sufficed. Also, Garmer has a great point that the Giants lineup is just sad. I still think Barry Zito is at least top two worst signing at this point, pretty close with Hampton. I am going to score one for Garmer this round.


2. Betting Tiger Woods over the field is the smart bet.

Ian Smart Fact- Certainly math would dictate otherwise, but at this point in his career, Tiger Woods plays for the big events. He picks and chooses his tournaments to ensure that he peaks during the majors, and the Masters is arguably the biggest of all the events, meaning that Tiger is a good bet even against the field.

Sean Garmer: FACT. Tiger is on a roll right now and the only person that can stop him is himself. He always plays well in the Masters, look at how many times he's one that green jacket. It is always best to bet Tiger over the field, because you know that in the final round he will always have himself within a few shots to win.

Scoring: There is really no different argument from anyone here. If you are a betting man than you have to bet Tiger Woods! As crazy as that sounds I can't disagree with either here. This point is like kissing your sister, it's a tie!


3. The Tigers starting out slow and Baltimore leading the Majors in record proves that April baseball means nothing.

Ian Smart Fiction- April baseball means just as much as baseball in any other month (October excluded). The Tigers are scheduled to play 27 games in April (17% of their total schedule) these 27 games are just as important as the last 27 games. What the Tigers and Orioles respective starts demonstrates is that the season is a marathon and not a sprint, and that examining a sample of only 7 games at any point in the season is meaningless.

Sean Garmer: FACT. Sorry, but Baseball right now is in its infancy, you are telling me that a season that goes all the way from April to October, means a lot in its first month? They play 162 games. If there is any sport where people blow season leads more it is Baseball. Call me if Baltimore is still leading the league in May or June. The Tigers have to many great hitters and good pitching to suck this bad when the month is over. We are talking about less than the first ten games here? Basketball and Hockey have long seasons too, but even there you know by the half way point who's going to be there come playoff time (barring some big trade). How many times have we seen a team lead all the way to the all-star break by a whole lot, and then come the playoffs they are hanging on by a thread? A lot of them and it happens every year. April Baseball is nice because it is the beginning of the season. That is pretty much about it. The NFL's entire season matters because they only play 16 games. Soccer (except MLS) season matters because they don't have a playoff system. Baseball this early doesn't really tell you anything.

Scoring I really want to deduct points from Garmer for throwing in an MLS comment but I will let it slide this once, I better not see it again, MLS is not a real league to quote. I really 100% agree with Garmer's sentiments and am giving him this one. Ask the Phillies how much April matters when they start out 10 games below .500 and still win the division in September. Another point for Garmer

It's Stretch Time with Garmer leading 2-0


4. Pedro Martinez will pitch less than 10 games this season.

Sean Garmer: FACT. The guy had an injury plagued season last year, and it seems like he's on the way for another one this season too. I think that the Mets will be ok without him, as they have Johan Santana to pick up the slack. The Mets didn't implode last year because Martinez was not pitching. Obviously if Pedro can pitch this season, and do it well it helps the Mets, however he's not a huge piece to the puzzle.

Ian Smart: Fiction Pedro's early injury is unfortunate, but he is out with a hamstring strain, which is by no means season ending- although it will likely nag him throughout the season. There is no reason to believe that he will not find his way to the mound nine more times this year.

Scoring: Are you naive Smart? Pedro comes into every season since becoming a Met promising a solid, healthy season and is yet to deliver more than one mediocre 23 starts in three years. It is time to stop believing him. Score one for Garmer here, especially for the point that Pedro isn't that important anyway.


5 LeBron James is the MVP of the NBA this year.

Sean Garmer: FICTION. No, I don't think so. Yes, Lebron is the league's leading scorer and his team doesn't give him a lot of help especially before that trade. He single-handedly took the Cavs to the NBA Finals, the team is doing great this year mainly because of him. However, I just think that this is Kobe's year. He has done it all by his lonesome year after year ever since Shaq left. If anything you have to look at Chris Paul as well, he leads that time very much like Steve Nash does with the Suns. He makes that team go, he passes, scores, and defends for his team. I think if we are going to say someone that means the most for his team, you give it to LeBron. Without him the Cavs are at the bottom of the league, but probably so are the Lakers even with Gasol. I think the league will vote for Kobe or Chris Paul because they are leading the much tougher conference (also because Chris Paul is playing in New Orleans.) That's why I said Fiction, but if I had a vote it would go to LeBron.

Ian Smart: FICTION. Chris Paul is the MVP of the National Basketball Association. He leads the league in Steals, Steal Percentage, Assist Percentage, and win shares. The precedent had been set that the MVP goes to the player who contributes the most to their particular team; evidence of this is the back-to-back Steve Nash MVPs. Chris Paul is the guy during the 2007-2008 season that has done the most for his team, and he deserves the MVP because of that.

Scoring Point goes to Smart here even though it is to late to win it for him. He is right the Chris Paul deserves to be MVP but than again the NBA proves they rarely give it to the guy that deserves it. It is probably Kobe's year but I give Smart the point for knowing who the right man is for MVP and coming right out and saying he deserves it hands down.


6. The young stud Johnny Cueto will be the piece that the Reds need to finally be contenders in the N.L. Central this season

Sean Garmer: FICTION. Baseball is hard to judge with things like a young pitcher doing well in his first couple of outings to say a team is going to compete in a stacked division like that one. I think they need more than just Cueto to compete with the Cards, Cubs, and Brewers. There is always the chance that Milwaukee blows their shot at the playoffs again, but I think they need a bit better line-up and another pitcher aside from him. Then again, I'm not that knowledgeable about Baseball, so take that with a grain of salt

Ian Smart: FACT In many ways an answer of 'fact' is over simplifying what the Reds have done, because the addition of Corey Patterson and the steady improvement of Brandon Phillips are also big factors. But if Cueto is what he appears to be – two great starts is likely too small a sample size- the Reds have a strong top three in their rotation, which will be enough to make some noise in an NL Central that has a lot of teams that could suffer from inconsistent pitching.

Scoring Obviously this was just one name to throw into my question since I didn't feel like naming all the places where the Reds improved but they clearly have. I doubt they will be within 4 or 5 games of first place in the central but they will certainly ‘make noise' for all the reasons Smart listed and for that he gets a point. Also, Garmer didn't learn anything from last week, don't admit to not being an expert on a subject I will dock points.


Final Score Well Smart made a solid comeback to make it close but Garmer squeaked out the 3-2 victory in this one. Don't you know backing Pedro is always the wrong move Ian? Unless of course your backing him in a bull fight against Don Zimmer.




OLAY

Running Total of Win Leaders
Dan Schmidt 1
Sean Garmer 1

That is all for Fact or Fiction this week, I will be back with two more next week until than LET THE DEBATES BEGIN!