411's Football/Soccer Fact or Fiction 5.13.08: Coaching Changes, Relegation Comebacks, and More

Posted by Sean Garmer on 05.13.2008

Yep it is back and for good. Arnold Furious and Daniel Wilcox are here to discuss this week's questions.

Hello everyone, yeah this thing has been gone for a while but I had to move to a new apartment, and I just got my electronic equipment back (Internet and TV). Then I got into a car accident early on Sunday Morning, so finally Footy FOF has returned. This should be on like wildfire now, since everything seems to be in order. I figured since the Premiership season has just finished (FA Cup not withstanding) it would be appropriate to make this an all EPL edition. So here are our contestants today…


Arnold Furious Is an Evertonian that you will find in the Wrestling and Movies Zone, but this man loves to talk about his football, and I don't think it will take you long to figure that out.

Daniel Wilcox is a huge Manchester United supporter (like me), but he actually lives in the UK, (unlike me). Though he spends his time in the Wrestling Zone, Wilcox is always active in the Footy forums on 411, and writes a column every now and then about it.

So here we go, bring on the madness…



1. Shinawatra was right to sack Sven Goran-Erikson after only one season?



Arnold Furious: FICTION. I'm not a biggest fan of Sven. I don't think he did much of a job as England boss and bottled a lot of big decisions over the course of his career. When he arrived at Man City I had a wry smirk to myself and thought "this'll all end in tears". And then the rag-tag assortment of Euro-scraps and Man City kids actually starting playing some decent football and City, at one point, looked like they might get into Europe. EUROPE! MAN CITY! That's nothing short of a miracle in a 12 month turnaround and Sven should have been given a hearty bonus for a great bridging season. Most managers get at least a season to turn things around and Sven achieved everything he'd have wanted to achieve in the first 6 months. Actually getting City into Europe would have been over-achieving. But Shinawatra doesn't seem to understand this. He wants results. Now. Yesterday. You simply can't be that impatient in football. Changing your manager frequently is proven to have bad results. Only in Italy, where everyone does it, does it have a positive effect. Look at the most consistently successful clubs in England; Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelski, Liverpool and Everton. I include Everton not because I'm an Evertonian but because they've gained consistency over the past few years and happen to fall into my argument that way. Of those clubs only one has changed their manager in their last 4 years and that was more down to personal reasons. If Shinawatra can find someone who can do a better job with one season then he'll be lucky. I thought Sven built a good team and deserved another season at least. Since when was finishing in the top half a bad thing?


Daniel Wilcox: FICTION. Arnold is very much spot on in his assessment. I think most City fans, regardless of where they finished, would want Sven kept on just because he managed to do the double over Man United and yet here they are, looking at a spot in the Uefa Cup next year and that's not good enough? Let's not forget that they were in a relegation battle last year and only finished up in 14th. Sven has done a wonderful job this season in bringing in quality players while keeping key players and making them all gel as a team, which is very hard to do. I do not see how Shinawatra can think that anybody else can come in next season and improve upon the foundations that Erikson has laid this year moreso than Sven himself could. There's no logic behind it. And it is a recurring problem that managers are not given enough time to turn a club around and that chairman and sometimes fans, expect immediate results and that rarely happens. With Sven this year, it more or less has and now they need someone new in to do even better? Any other chairman would have given Sven money in the summer to further improve their squad so that they can be challenging the top clubs next season, after all, Sven's buys have nearly all been successes and now next year a new manager will have a team predominantly made up of players he didn't bring in which has proven to be a problem for new managers in recent years. I just wonder if when Man City are down in a relegation scrap come Christmas if Sven will be brought back, or if he'd want to come back.



2. If Chelsea win the Champions League, Avram Grant deserves to stay as Manager?



Arnold Furious: FACT. Absolutely. Avram Grant has only had one bad game as Chelski boss. ONE. And yet you'd think from his press that he doesn't know left from right and couldn't pick a team to save his life. And yet he's done something Mourinho didn't do with Chelski; made the final of the Champions League. He may not have the Special One's charisma and the love of the fans and press but his achievements on the pitch speak for themselves. Chelski were nowhere all season but he's kept them plugging away and they're still in the title race with one game to play and still in the Champions League come May. That said I think he has to win the Champions League to be sure of a job next season. Chelski is a cutthroat place and Mourinho won two league titles before he was fired. Grant's failure, his only one, in the League Cup Final against Spurs put his neck on the line. And I think Abramovich feels like Grant owes him something for a) the hiring and b) looking the other way after the Carling Cup disaster. Of course Roman wasn't even AT the Liverpool game, which is just unthinkable when you consider how much money he's paid out to get there. Maybe he's not even that bothered these days? He's certain to be there in Moscow and if Chelski don't perform then Grant is pretty much gone. Should he win that game though, he absolutely deserves to stay.


Daniel Wilcox: FACT. Fact, fact, fact, fact, fact. This is probably even more ridiculous than the Sven situation as far as I'm concerned. I think that whether Avram Grant and Chelsea win the Champions league or not, he's done more than enough to warrant holding on to his job as manager. When he was appointed back in October, half the footballing world were asking "who the hell is this guy" while the rest were predicting he'd be gone in a couple of weeks. And now here we are at the end of the season and he has driven a Chelsea team to the Champions league final but has also gotten them within touching distance of regaining the Premier League crown. Raise your hand if you thought he could do that. Didn't think so. And getting them to the Champions League final is more than Mourinho could ever do. And let's not forget he has done it with a team of a bunch of little bitches who cried about how unhappy they were when Mourinho left. As Furious said, the guy had a solitary cock-up where his tactics and substitutions were all wrong, and it just so happens that that game was a cup final and is now a big part of the reason why his job is on the line. And the sad reality is that the man will likely be on his way out in the summer, more because of the fact that he has the charisma of Mourinho's big toe than a reflection of his achievements as a manger.


3. Both Reading and Birmingham will be back in the Premiership after next season?


Arnold Furious: FICTION The Championship is one of the most competitive leagues anywhere in the world. Its by far the hardest to predict and teams that drop into it find it very hard to get back out again. Look at Leicester, Norwich, Coventry or Southampton. Or Charlton, arguably the best of the relegated sides from last season, who didn't even make the play-offs. Reading are a better footballing side than any of those teams but getting relegated is very demoralising. Blues need to sort out their internal problems before even considering taking a run at getting back in the Premier League. Seriously, when the chairman is going to the press and bashing the players that's a BAD situation. I understand David Sullivan is pissed off and under pressure but taking it out on the players (and the fans, although they deserve it) won't help anyone. Blues, oddly enough, do have a lot of overpaid players but they should be good enough to compete in the Championship. But, like I said before, the division is seriously competitive. Pre-season who would have had Stoke up? Or Hull and Bristol City in the play-offs? The Premier League is the Holy Grail and these teams fight for it. If you come down from the Premier League you're not always prepared for just how hungry the Championship sides are. Look at how good Cardiff and Barnsley were in the FA Cup. And neither one of those came close to even making the play-offs. Both Reading and Birmingham will be in for a shock if they think the Championship is going to be easy. I expect another highly competitive season. Wolves, Ipswich and Sheffield Utd are all moving in the right direction. Cardiff have big backing and should be in there next season. QPR have money and might be a dark horse. And that's not even mentioning the play-off losers, Watford almost certainly among them, who will be fighting hard again next year. It's already competitive without Blues and Reading in there. And the way Derby are playing they'll be in for another relegation fight. The level is that high in the Championship right now. I think there's an excellent chance one of them will come back up but I doubt both will be that fortunate. I'm already looking forward to what promises to be another cracking season in the Championship.


Daniel Wilcox: FICTION I think both sides have a fair chance, but the problem is they have only as good a chance of coming up as any of the other teams in the Champions because the last few years have proven that the Championship can be very random. Teams who have been relegated from the Premiership have found it difficult to be in contention the next year, let alone get promoted back straight away. Neither Sheffield United or Charlton even made the play-offs this year, and the likes of Southampton, Wolves and Norwich have never really looked like getting back in the Prem since they went down. And when teams can come up from League 1 and go straight to the Prem the next season, you know it's going to be difficult. And let's not forget that Reading and Brum will lose some of their top players in the transfer window. The only thing predictable about the Championship is that it's always unpredictable so to answer this question with "fact" would be an injustice to every other team in that league. On a side note, how much must it suck to score 4 goals and win, and still go down on the final day?



4. You would take winning your own league over the Champions League any day?


Daniel Wilcox: FICTION. I think that this would totally depend on what team you support. A Liverpool fan would no doubt say fact to this. However, I'm a United fan. I remember crying in '99 when United went two down against Juventus inside 11 minutes in the semi-final, and then throwing a hissy fit when Bayern scored that free kick in the final. That was one of the most magical and emotional nights of my life and knowing that we'll be there again on May 21st means a great deal. To win it, against Chelsea no less, would be incredible. There will always be other Premier League campaigns but we don't have that European pedigree that the likes of Liverpool do. A European final will always carry more prestige than winning the Premiership at the JJB as far as I'm concerned so if you'd told me at the start of the season that United would win the Champions League this year but come runners-up to Chelsea in the league, I would have taken it all day long.

Arnold Furious: FACT. But then as an Evertonian we've not won the league since 1987. Winning the league, for me at least, means you're the best. Sure its old hat for the likes of Man Utd who dream of more European glory but if they stopped winning the league so frequently that would change. Go 20 years without winning the league and you'll really, really want to win the league. I'm not sure all my fellow supporters would agree with me on that but I think European football gives you less bragging rights with your fellow supporters. Off the top of my head, when writing this, I couldn't actually remember half the winners of the European Cup over the past 5 or 6 years (I remember Man Utd's big win in 1999 but it had been a long time since an English team had been there) but I can remember all the league winners. So my personal preference would be winning the league. But once you've started winning titles it makes the European goal that much more inviting. I can totally understand Wilcox's POV.


5. Gareth Barry should go to Liverpool?


Daniel Wilcox: FACT. Should he go? Yes, but I really don't want him to. Having said that, he has helped Villa get into a wonderful position in the league and they've had a tremendous season. Furthermore, Barry has earned numerous England caps and been a stand out performer for his country in the last 12 months. But from here, there's not much left he can accomplish in an Aston Villa shirt. Despite my prediction that they would crack the top 4 at the start of the season, none of the big clubs seem like they'll be budging any time soon and I do think Barry deserves to be playing for one of those big clubs. A partnership alongside Stevie G would likely improve his game and do a whole lot of good for England too. He'd be getting to play on some of the biggest stages in Europe and against some of the best players in the world and he'll only improve as a player. Plus, the money'll be better.

Arnold Furious: FICTION. Two reasons. 1. He'll get lost in Rafa's shuffling rotation system. With the strong midfield Liverpool already have he'll struggle to get regular games. Who's going to be left out to accommodate him? Surely not Javier Mascherano who's been brilliant this season. Barry won't really want to get stuck out on the left side and might not even get that if Babel continues to improve. 2. Villa have improved immensely this season. Before Martin O'Neill went there Villa were practically guaranteed a relegation dogfight. He took over and now they're easily in the top half of the table and challenging for Europe. Their squad is improving and so are their chances of actually winning something. Barry is more likely to win something at Liverpool but if he isn't playing his England career could suffer. After all Hargreaves and Carrick are both getting games at Man Utd, which is a better squad than Liverpool's. I honestly don't see where Barry would fit into Liverpool's starting eleven unless they're going to sell Alonso. Sure he stands of chance of improving as a player but he'd be a big fish in a small pond and I've seen big clubs ruin perfectly good players. Barry is one of those players who thrives on confidence. How confident will be if he doesn't make the team at the start of the season? He should stay where he is. Btw this has nothing to do with how much I hate Liverpool.


6. Arsenal need to make some moves in the summer if they want to contend for the title next season?



Daniel Wilcox: FACT. Pretty much the only reason that they're not competing for the title tomorrow is because the players that they had ran out of steam. They played fantastic for seven and a half months of the season before fizzling out. They don't have the strength in depth that Chelsea or United do and that's proven to be a problem. They were over stretched and it caused them to go out of all competitions in the space of a few weeks. And now they have this problem that some of this season's key players are leaving. Flamini and Hleb are big losses as both have been great this season, and don't be surprised if a few more of the young talents leave in the summer. Wenger's never been much of a big spender but he really needs to bring at least half a dozen quality signings in. They need another striker, they need a central defender as back-up and they need at least 2 more midfielders than they currently have assuming Hleb does leave. Even if they go the Liverpool route and don't buy the big names, something needs to be done otherwise next season will just be a repeat of this. Adebayor is like Wayne Rooney in that he goes through good and bad patches, and you need someone scoring the goals when he's not. Fabregas has been wonderful this season but his performances at the back end have been poor simply because he's been working his ass off for 8 months. If I was Wenger, I'd be looking to steal Gareth Barry from Pool and pick up someone like Berbatov, 'cause you know there's not enough of a rivalry between Arsenal and Spurs.

Arnold Furious: FACT. If the papers are to be believed Alex Hleb is off this summer and Flamini has already gone. Two huge holes in that midfield area. I know Wenger likes to build from within and probably has his eye on a few of the young players coming through but all the pretty football in the world won't give them that cutting edge. Arsenal failed many times to finish off poor teams this season. They should have won the vast majority of the games they drew. And it's due to their best players getting burned out because they're needed week in, week out. Fabregas was brilliant for the first 3 months of the season and then his form got patchy because he wasn't getting any rest. Adebayor was the same. They don't have the best of luck with injuries because their players get tired and play tired and get injured. Look at Tomas Rosicky or Robin Van Persie. They need to improve on their squad if they have any realistic chance of challenging over the course of the season next year. And they are good enough but they just lack the strength in depth and a cutting edge when their best players are worn down. Make a few signings to replace the players they're losing and get in another striker and another central midfield player as well and they'll be contenders. Arsenal need to stump up some money in the summer because their spending is way behind the top sides and down on both Newcastle and Spurs. Taking Berbatov from Tottenham would probably be a good start even if he costs an arm and a leg.


Hey, for the comeback issue 4 out of 6 isn't bad. Well see what happens next week.