The Round Football Column 06.25.08: 161st Edition – Euro 2008 Special

Posted by  on 06.25.2008

Michael Ballack, Cesc Fabregas, Andrei Arshavin and one of the Turkey players that’s not either injured or suspended could all be key as the Euro 2008 semi-finals take place. Predictions, one click away.



How bad is John Motson's commentary by the way?

The quarter-finals were a crazy time. Crazy, crazy, crazy. We are now down to the final four, and here are my thoughts:



Before I start, under no circumstances should you listen to me. You should only read the main copy – NOT THE PREDICTIONS – especially after my quarter-final disasters!

GERMANY v TURKEY

Russia have been amazing in the last three games and France's demise was pretty big stuff, but I still think Turkey are the story of these championships. Their passionate fans, the touchline antics of their manager, the late winner against Switzerland, the Nihat-inspired comeback against the Czech Republic and then the ridiculous scenes against Croatia – it's just been an incredible journey for Turkey.

If you didn't think their story could be any more dramatic, all you have to do is look at their options for tonight's semi-final against Germany. The majority of sources are reporting that they have only 12 outfield players to choose from, due to injuries and suspensions. If that's not bad enough, the aforementioned injuries and suspensions lie on the head of their best players.

For that reason it's really hard to bet against the Germans tonight. I really thought they were missing a vital ingredient ahead of Euro 2008, but here they are 90 minutes away from a probable spot in the final. Miroslav Klose could have a bit more about him after his goal against Portugal, and Bastian Schweinsteiger is the epitome of a "confidence player", because after looking void of creativity and invention for ages that early goal against Portugal turned him into a world-beater. This game really is quite bizarre, because players can come out of their shell and produce performances you don't think they're capable of. Add that to Michael Ballack, who's had a very good - if a little over hyped - tournament and it's hard to look past those damn ruthless Germans.

Prediction: Germany to win 2-0.


RUSSIA v SPAIN

So then, The Group of Death ended up being a crock of shit, didn't it? Both qualifiers were knocked out by these semi-finalists at the weekend, and both were totally outplayed in the process. Italy's tactics were a disgrace and even the Italian media agree, while Holland confirmed that the group stages are there for a warm-up and not the stage to peak and deceive.

Russia were just incredible against Holland. People have attacked the performance of the Dutch, but it was Guus Hiddink's tactics and his team's confidence that changed the game. If my 66/1 golden boot bet (Super Pav) stopped teasing me and actually started learning how to finish they could have won the game 5-1 in normal time. They really were that good and you could see by Marco van Basten's face on the touchline that he just didn't know how to counter it.

All eyes will be on Andrei Arshavin on Thursday, and rightly so. We really are seeing a genuine superstar develop from Euro 2008 and he is the main reason why Russia pose such a potent threat against Spain. Sergio Ramos is not having the tournament people were expecting and the two centre-backs are still a little vulnerable on the deck. Aragones will obviously pinpoint Arshavin as the danger man, and Spain's stricter man-marking tactics could free up some space for the likes of Zyrianov and Pavlyuchenko to hurt them.

Of course, Spain are no small team. They have exceptional individuals and seem to be working well as a team this summer. Plus, the penalty shoot-out win against Italy will undoubtedly give them even greater confidence and impetus to win this and reach the final. They are far too good to try and stifle the Russians interplay and rhythm, and for that reason I think we can rub our hands together and expect the game of the tournament here. He may shoot like a king, but the lad Kolodin is a horrible defender. The superb Zhirkov attacks more than he defends too. Spain can counter against these flaws and not be afraid to concede a goal or two, because they know they can score four themselves. Aragones does have some selection dilemmas though, and it could be time to see Fabregas starting from the outset. Xavi is a good player and he's certainly one of the best three passers in the world, but there's always been something slightly missing for me. He never seems to have that drive or thrust from midfield that can change games. He does his job well and it works perfectly in La Liga, because the game is far more technical and steadily paced there, but when you need someone to make something happen – whether it be a run in the box to confuse the defence, a killer throughball or a goal – Xavi never seems to be in the mix. Cesc Fabregas is a far more influential player and with Marcos Senna's disciplined role assured in the middle, that only leaves Xavi to make way.

This is hard to call, because the way Russia played on Saturday it's hard to envisage them losing. Then again, I said that about Holland and look what happened to them! Plus, Spain beat Russia 4-1 earlier in the tournament and if they play their normal attacking game and don't panic about Arshavin too much, they can score three or four easily. Either way, it should be epic and I'll be disappointed if it's anything but.

Prediction: Russia to win 3-2 after extra time.


Semi-final thoughts and Final preview on Friday. Until then...

O'Sullivan

Done.