411 Sports Fact or Fiction 08.18.08: The Jets Playoff Hopes, The U.S. Olympic dreams, Cy Young Races, And More

Posted by Ken Schmidt on 08.18.2008

It is the most exciting quarterfinals match-up as well as the last showdown before we see who makes the final 4. It's Csonka vs. Isbelle.

We are back again with the fourth and final installment of the Summer Showdown Quarterfinals and I am not sure if anyone else saw the schedule for this weeks showdown but I have been looking forward to it since both these men dominated their first round match-ups. Let's see who we have in the corners and let them come out swinging.

In the red corner we have a man who has taken a bit of a break from his 411 writing duties but he still comes every week for the Coast 2 Coast Sports Report but you can catch his epic return to 411 when he begins the weekly NFL preview, which is just around the corner. It is Randy The Rizz Isbelle.

And in the blue corner we have a man that writes so many columns that if I listed them all I would not have time to get to the questions. Which ones do I suggest reading? Once again, to many to list but I will tell you that the 4 Rs of Wrestling are back to the golden days of 100% Csonkaified. It is the master of all wrestling and MMA, it is Larry Csonka.

Ladies and Gentleman: LET'S GET READY TO RESEARCH


1.Chad Pennington is the right fit to make the Dolphins no longer the biggest joke of the NFL.

Randy Isbelle FICTION Although I do believe that the Miami Dolphins will begin to right the ship in 2008, I do not believe that Chad Pennington will be the main cause. Bill Parcells only joined the team a few months ago, and already the team looks completely different. It looks like there will be 8-10 different starters on the field come Week 1, and the defense is changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Parcells has always been known as a man that brings results, and his new position could prove nothing different.

For a team that only was able to win one game last season, they weren't the worst team in the league. Miami lost six of their 15 games by three points last year, and had a chance to win even more then that. Now going back to Pennington, I do believe that he will be a pivotal part of this team, and their offense. Going into the season, Miami was looking at either Josh McCown or Chad Henne as their starting quarterback. Not something I would like to look at if I was trying to make a quick turnaround. Pennington will bring experience along with him, and possibly some balance to their offense. However, there are two major issues when you get a guy like Pennington (and I should know, I'm a Jets fan). First is the injury issue, as there have been very few seasons where Pennington has been able to last all 16 games in a year. Second, and most important, is his inability to throw a strong ball. His lack of arm strength, after all of the shoulder surgeries, has allowed defenses to crowd the line and put eight in the box. That alone will cause havoc on Ronnie Brown, who would rather not get hit by eight guys on every play as he is coming off of a season-ending injury himself.

The Dolphins will be an improved team in 2008, winning four or five games, but I wouldn't credit it to Pennington. However, I look at all of the major moves that Parcells has made to the team already as a sort of reboot of the franchise.

Larry Csonka FICTION You'll find that for the most part I am not as longwinded as my counterpart, no offense Randall. Chad Pennington is a fine quarterback, but he's not the guy you build a franchise around, the Jets discovered that. His arm issues have held him back and for the most part he has been horrendous since then.. The fact of the matter is that the guy has only played ONE full season, which was in 2006, not a few times, one season in 2006 was the ONLY year he played a full 16 game schedule. That is alarming. Last year the QB controversy came up, his numbers were anemic as in 9 games he had 10 TD's and 9 Int's and just over 1800 yards. He does bring experience, and I think that with the additions that Parcells has made to the team that they will be better than last year easily, but it will NOT be due to Chad Pennington.

Scoring

Ken Schmidt So both you guys think the Phins will prosper more than last season yet it won't be due to the starting quarterback. I give the point to Csonka because more than once it sounded like Rizz was contradicting himself.

Dan Owen I'll give the point to Randy here, because he correctly brings up the point that Chad Pennington's relatively weak arm will only further serve to bring the defense close to the line of scrimmage, which will hinder the Dolphins one good chance to beat teams, the run.


2. The U.S.A. will win the most gold medals at the Olympics.

Randy Isbelle FACT Come on now, how can I predict anybody but the United States to come out on top? As I right this, the United States sit in 2nd in the medal count, down 2 to China, who are the heavy favorites going in. China is the host country, as well as a country on the rise as far as athletic ability and will be a formidable opponent. Really this could come down to a few medals here and there, and will be a great story for anybody paying attention to that sort of thing. The one big issue for the USA is the fact that one of the big events that everybody is paying attention to is the USA Basketball team (a team I'm already sick of), and they only have the opportunity to bring home 1medal. On the other side, Michael Phelps and Katie Hoff look to bring home multiple medals. Phelps is trying to win eight medals this year, while Hoff is in six events herself. Both competitors have won medals in each of their first two events (as I write this), and both seem to be favorites in each of their remaining events.

Larry Csonka FACT Fact and I said so before the games started, and will keep that going until it is over. China has done their best to control these games, underage gymnasts, concentration camps with hot and cold running HGH for their weight lifters and all of that good shit. And they are dominating in the gold medal hunt.. But the US is doing it all around. They got a surprising bronze in the men's team gymnastics, a surprise since Hamm and his brother both pulled out and people thought the team was DOA. We got a clean sweep in fencing to kick off the games, and are completely dominating in swimming. Add into that the women's softball team is KILLING everyone and will take a gold there. The beach volleyball is looking good for the US, the women just took two medals in individual gymnastics, women;s basket ball is looking good and we have also taken two surprising shooting medals. The US has the lead by five in the overall as I write this, and I don't see them looking back as I mentioned due to the softball team and the beach volleyball teams. Which is really amazing because I still agree that the Chinese are a bunch of cheating fucks. But hey, how fun have these Olympics been?

Scoring

Ken Schmidt The point goes to Csonka here, although I am not as harsh to jump on the Chinese the fact of the matter is there training techniques are…… not kosher. Now there are people saying Phelps must be juicing but I am to believe Kexin He went from 13 to 16 in just a few months? Either way I hope Csonka is right but it seems unlikely.

Dan Owen Csonka, I too believe that there is something not so kosher going on in the Chinese camp, and I'm not convinced that it ends with underage gymnasts. You get the point, because you bring up a good point that while the U.S. doesn't win the events like China has taking the most gold medals of the games, the U.S. is getting things done on an all-around basis and that is how you win the medal race.


3. Padraig Harrington is the number one golfer with Tiger on the shelf.

Randy Isbelle FACT Although I would also like to throw in the fact that Harrington is the most mentally strong golfer on the tour right now as well. For anybody that watched any of the PGA Championship (and I didn't get to watch as much as I wanted), Harrington seemed to be the only player on the course who was content with going out there and just playing his game. Every other single golfer out there continually tried to make brilliant shots and ended up tripping over themselves. Hell, Sergio Garcia again proved that mentally he just doesn't have it. On Sunday, Garcia was playing the better round, but again Harrington proved that he will not buckle under the pressure. Harrington made huge putts on the 16th, 17th and finally the 18th to win his second straight major, and third in the last six. Although both tournaments were Tiger-less, Harrington still became only the fourth golfer in PGA history to win both the British and the PGA in the same season. Not to mention that he was the first European to win the PGA championship in 78 years (and just a side note, most of those years were Tiger-less too). The one thing I would like to see more of from Harrington is consistency, as he has not played as well on the other events on tour.

In the four majors this year, he has made all four cuts, finished in the top 10 in three of them (he finished a disappointing 36th at the US Open after shooting a 78 in the first round). However in the eight other events he has played, he has only three top tens and zero wins and has also missed a cut. Now I am not looking down on him for that, because everybody not named Tiger Woods is not expected to finish in the top ten every time. However, it would be nice to see Harrington also step it up outside of the majors. With that said, I think that Harrington has stepped up to the challenge and told the world that if nobody else wants to grab the reigns of the PGA Tour while Tiger is on the sidelines, then I will. Oh, and don't forget that with his accent, he is perfect for the PGA, and his press conferences are always fun to listen to. I can't wait for 2009, when a more matured Padraig Harrington has to go up against Tiger himself. Hopefully we get many a Sunday pairing between the two.

Larry Csonka FACT Hell yes he is. With Tiger out everyone started the usual chants that Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia will step up and prove that they belong in the talk of the best. And you know what I have seen from these guys? Jack and shit. I watched the entire WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Vijay and Phil were battling, and what happened? No Tiger around but these guys BOTH were choking back. Phil took himself out of the game, as usual for him, and Vijay, while winning, missed something like 7 puts in the last 18-holes that were UNDER 5-feet! Vijay should have won that tournament by 5 more strokes than he did. Way to step up. Sergio Garcia is the most over hyped man in golf. All I have heard for years is that he is the next big thing, he is the guy to take on Tiger. Sure he won The Players Championship this year and what was the first thing he did? Thank Tiger for not being there, and he was serious.

Harrington is CLUTCH. Harrington won back to back British opens, he won back to back majors. This is the shit of legend, this is the shit that TIGER does. Harrington is a guy that goes out there, and I speak as a golfer, that not only plays HIS game, but he is not phased. He doesn't choke down the stretch when the pressure is on. He isn't missing the short puts, he isn't taking the stupid shots to take himself out of the game and he isn't some former poster boy for the sport.. Harrington is a guy that goes out there and more importantly than play his game, he plays clean and simple golf. Take your Ernie Els, Vijay "where's my short putter" Singh, Phil "fly out of bounds" Mickelson and Sergio "too much hype" Garcia and say you want to watch them because they are stars. I'll take Padraig Harrington, because he is making golf fun to watch without Tiger Woods, and it is only going to get better when Tiger gets back. When tiger gets back you'll have one group saying that Padraig Harrington is the best due to what he has done, and one staying with Tiger stating he is the best. And that will be game on, and that will make for some awesome golf next year.

Scoring

Ken Schmidt Rizz knows his golf and though you both said the same thing I'm giving the point to Rizz for more stats and boringness about golf.

Dan Owen Tough call here, as you guys said a lot of the same things. I'll give the nod to Randy for the numbers he brought to the table about Harrington's performances.


After a Wellness Test break we have a 3-3 tie, that is if everyone passes a piss test and proves they are over 16 years old.


4. The New York Jets will make the playoffs.

Larry Csonka FICTION I do not see it happening. The Jets were 4-12 last season and did little to impress me during that season. They dropped a lot of crap, including Chad Pennington, they got Bret Favre (Laveranues Coles is happy), added Bubba Franks at TE and the All Pro Lineman Alan Faneca. These are all GREAT additions to the team. Faneca will be a huge key in their offense as Favre needs protection and Thomas Jones needs that line to hold so that he can make a difference. He had a good year last year with 1,100 yards but can do a lot more with a solidified line. Franks, if healthy will be a guy to watch with his history with Favre. Yes Favre had a great year last season, but he could quickly revert to his gun slinging ways and try to do too much and hurt the team. Just adding some great players to a team will not instantly turn it around, I don't care how much money you spent on the talent, it doesn't equal a great season, see the Yankees, New York. Add into this the fact that New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, the Colts and Chargers are likely locks for the playoffs. Tennessee and Cleveland will be close for that last spot, maybe Houston so the Jets have a lot of competition to make the last playoff birth. I just don't see it happening.

Randy Isbelle FACT Now before I get started, I will give full disclosure. I am a huge New York Jets fan, but that is not why I am saying fact...and no it is not only because we acquired Brett Favre either. Last season for the Jets was a disappointment, but not unexpected. They went into the season with a quarterback controversy, and neither man really stepped up and took charge. Chad Pennington's lack of arm strength and Kellen Clemens' lack of experience allowed teams to bring eight into the box and focus on a very young offensive line and the Jets' running game. Thomas Jones became outmatched and was only able to score one touchdown the entire season, although he was able to muster out over 1,000 yards rushing. The Jets finished the season 4-12 only able to finish ahead of the Miami Dolphins in the division. However, the Jets were a better team then what the record showed, not a ton better...not a playoff team, but better. New York lost seven of their 12 games by a touchdown or less, and that does not even include a game against the Giants where the Jets led for most of the game before two interceptions (the second returned for a touchdown) cost them the game. Now I'm not saying that the Jets should have won all of these games, but with some of the acquisitions this year, they could have won a solid portion of them.

I'm hearing a lot of people bashing on Brett Favre, and part of it is rightfully so. The way he handled his retirement/unretirement/trade was a joke, however that does not take away from the ability he showed he still had last season. Just because a man has shown bad judgment in going around their business does not mean they do not have the ability to play the game, look at Terrell Owens for one of many examples of that. Favre brings something that the Jets have not seen in my lifetime...a solid quarterback. Gone are the days of the Ken O'Brian's and Ray Lucas' of the world. Favre will allow the team to spread their horizons and open up a rushing game as defenses will no longer be able to put eight in the box.

The young offensive line has also been modified. Not only are the young players growing with experience, but they are now learning from on of the all-time greats in Alan Faneca. Add in right tackle Damien Woody and all of a sudden you have a strong line protecting one of the better arms in the league. Fullback Tony Richardson and tight end Bubba Franks will bring extra protection, as well as give Favre a familiar face in Franks. Linebacker Calvin Pace and cornerback Andre Woolfolk were brought in to try and help a defensive squad who has struggled over the past few years. And finally the first round picks, DE turned linebacker Vernon Gholston and TE Dustin Keller should make immediate impact. Oh and I can't forget to mention that the Jets finally let go of Justin McCareins who I swear has dropped more passes in clutch situations than Tony Romo has had failed relationships with girls he would never have had a chance with if he wasn't a Dallas Cowboy.

Now the question is, will the Jets make the playoffs. As Larry said, the road will not be easy as most of the spots are basically penciled in, leaving one spot available. I don't believe that Cleveland will repeat their performance of last season, and it will come down to the Jets, Texans and Titans for that final playoff spot in the AFC. The thing working for the Jets is that they get two games against the Dolphins and Bills while the Texans and Titans have six divisional games against very tough opponents. The Jets also get the AFC and NFC West divisions, which means other than Seattle and San Diego, New York has a pretty easy schedule. In four of the past five seasons, you did not make a wildcard spot if you did not have 10 or more wins. That will be the case this season and that is exactly where I have the Jets this season. Give two losses for the Patriots, one for the Chargers, one for the Seahawks (because it is at Seattle), and one or two more because very few teams win every game they should and the Jets will be right around that 10-6 mark.
Scoring

Ken Schmidt Once again Rizz takes a whole lot of time being a homer but he did get most of his valid points out there. Instead of talking about the Jets he could have talked about the Titans and Browns falling off but he did get to that, eventually. Point goes to Rizz, a long winded point.

Dan Owen The point here goes to Csonka, despite Randy's claim his pick wasn't homeristic. The way I see it, the Jets will miss the playoffs, but just barely. Last season for Favre was magical, but you cannot forget that the few years before that he wasn't all that wonderful. I'm not saying he was bad, by any stretch of the imagination, but he was not the god he was last season. Also, for the record, I'm saying it here first. Vernon Gholston will be a complete bust. The guy is the definition of a workout warrior who puts up amazing combine numbers but can't back it up on the field.


5. Brandon Webb will win the NL Cy Young.

Larry Csonka FACT I always hate prediction style statements, and all three of these questions are just that. There are so many variables to take into account, injury, team slump, individual slump and such. But that is the statement, so that's the deal. So for this we have to go to the stats. Monkeys in the truck, put up the graphic.


All right, in my opinion here are the top five candidates right now (8.12.08). All of the men have roughly the same games played, so that's a push. Cook has a lot of innings pitched, the advantage in strikeouts but also has the most hits against him. Earned runs against, earned run average and batting average against are also the worst along with the most losses, so he's out. Depmster, Lohse and Volquez all have roughly the same record. Volquez has the least innings pitched, but less earned runs than the other two. Lohse's earned run average and batting average against hurt him, so he is out. Webb easily has the best record, more innings pitched, three complete games, one shut out, good strikeout numbers, and the lowest ERA. Hits against and batting average aren't quite as low, but it hasn't hurt him in the other areas. As of today, according to the numbers I think it is safe to say he takes the award.

Randy Isbelle FACT Well this one will be tough for me to win, as I totally agree with Czonka, and usually when you do that, the first person to say it wins. However, I will do my best to find something Larry missed. Brandon Webb has been the front-runner for the NL Cy Young since the beginning of the season. He ran off nine straight victories before finally facing defeat on May 21st against the Marlins. However, it is not about how you start a season, but how you finish one, and Webb is doing just fine.

In his last nine starts (as of August 10th) Webb is 6-0, allowing only 16 earned runs in 63 innings, giving him an ERA of 2.29 since June 28th. In that stretch he has won his last four starts, the last three while only allowing one run in each contest. He has thrown 53 strikeouts in this nine start undefeated streak and has helped keep the Arizona Diamondbacks ahead of the charging Los Angeles Dodgers. The most impressive thing about Webb this season is his success without run support. In this same nine start stretch, Webb has yet to see his team give him more then six runs of support. In fact, the Diamondbacks have scored three or fewer runs four times (Webb is 3-0, while the team is 3-1 in those games). Webb is a difference maker and has really stepped up his game down the stretch.

The Dodgers are breathing right down their neck, but as Sean and SAT pointed out in the previous FoF, the Dodgers have terrible pitching while Webb is leading his Arizona Diamondbacks towards the postseason.

Scoring

Ken Schmidt This point all comes down to one thing, the Cy Young, like the MVP should go down to the guy who single handedly carried his team to the playoffs, a team that would not have made it without them, and Rizz stated that about the D'Backs and Webb.

Dan Owen Hmmmm…Randy, you did a valiant effort trying to get past your position answering the question (I hope that made sense). But I'm giving Csonka the point here, because winning the Cy Young award is not just about putting up great numbers, it's about putting up better numbers than your fellow pitchers. I have to give the Csonkster props for making the comparison between all of the pitchers, plus you just can't beat that graphic. On a side note, Webb owes a lot of thanks to the Arizona grounds crew for his record…


6. Cliff Lee will win the AL Cy Young.

Larry Csonka FACT And here we go. Monkeys in the truck, put up the graphic.


Once again, in my opinion these are the top five candidates right now (8.12.08). To me there is a bit more competition in the AL than the NL. All of these guys have between 13-16 wins and have been real helps to their teams. Saunders and Mussina are low in strikeouts, have let up some gofer balls, and are near the bottom of the totem here in ERA, so sorry about your damn luck kids, but unless you throw 5 or 6 no-hitters between now and the end of the season, you're out. Halladay has been the WORKHORSE this season, seven complete games, two shut outs, low ERA, low batting average against and the most strikeouts. Unfortunately he has NINE losses against him, mainly due to his team letting him down. Had he had some more run support this season, he would be THE GUY to take the award. Lee is rocking a 16-2 record, two complete games and one shut out. He has only allowed seven homeruns, has the lowest ERA of the five candidates, and the batting average against him is good. He doesn't put up the strikeout numbers of Halladay or Santana, but he controls games, puts in a lot of winnings and does the little thing that don't let his team beat him. Even with the nine losses Halladay has good numbers, but I have to go with Lee. Take him out of the equation in Cleveland, who is 54-64 and that struggling franchise becomes miserable. Lee not only deserves it, if he doesn't get it (barring injury, team slump, individual slump and such) it is a crime.

Randy Isbelle FICTION Once again Larry brings up excellent points and shows great stats to back it up. Unfortunately, he forgot one minor detail. The Cy Young Award is not only awarded to starting pitchers. As great of a season as Cliff Lee is having, I have to go with Francisco Rodriguez. Now I will open my argument that Rodriguez only deserves the Cy Young Award if he is able to break the single season saves record currently held by Bobby Thigpen who saved 57 games back in 1990. Rodriguez currently is at 46 saves himself, and still has 44 games left to play. Now I understand that most people will read what I just wrote and simply laugh it off, believing that a closer doesn't play as big of a role as a starting pitcher does. But how wrong would they be, especially when you look at the difference between making the playoffs and watching at home in October.

As I write this, the Angles are an amazing 75-43, but the key stat is that KRod has saved 61.3% of those games. That means that KRod has had a possitive affect on nearly 2/3 of the games played by the Angels this season. "Oh but Randy, the Angels are so good, anybody could close for them and break the record." Not so fast, let me take you through the record books for a moment. Only one man has saved a higher percentage of his teams' victories than KRod has for the Angels this season (keeping in mind that the save stat did not start until 1970).

Bryan Harvey in 1993 saved 70.3% of the Florida Marlins victories, oh but they only had 64 victories that year, a number the Angels have already well surpassed. How about those teams that have won 100+ games? Something that Los Angeles looks to be headed towards. Well no closer has ever saved more than 56% of his teams games when they went on to win 100 games. The closer is usually looked down on when trying to decide the Cy Young winner. Eric Gagne did it in the National League back in 2003, but it hasn't been done in the American League since the great Dennis Eckersley did it back in 1992. Oh and as for Bobby Thigpen when he broke the record in 1990? Well he didn't win the Cy Young Award, but only because Bob Welch went out and won 27 games while leading his Oakland Athletics to the World Series. Since Lee won't be getting anywhere near either of those feats, I say give it to the man that will change the record books, give it to Francisco Rodriguez.

Scoring

Ken Schmidt You are kidding yourself here Rizz, I hate the talks about closers for Cy Youngs because my opinion, one that was finally put into an ESPN article after they over hyped Rivera and Gagne for all these years, closers aren't that important. Pretty much any monkey (maybe even the ones in Csonkas trucks) can get three outs without allowing three runs. K-Rod, though having a great season, isn't doing all that much that guys like Brad Lidge or even teammate Scot Shields could do. And for that, the point goes to Csonka and his graphic design truck.

Dan Owen Final point goes to Csonka here. Randy, I love you brother, but I just cannot give you this point. Look at the offense Lee has had to work with, and yet he still routinely goes out there and wins the game. As for K-Rod, the whole saves thing is overhyped. Saves can be such an arbitrary thing, that I don't care one bit about how many saves a guy has. If you are on a team that always wins by 4 runs but you still come in to pitch the ninth inning, does it mean you aren't as good? Of course not. And some of his saves are sooooo cheap. I remember seeing one where the team was up by 4 or something, and then all of the sudden the other team scores a run and puts two guys on with two outs. Here comes K-Rod to pick up a one out (and it might even have been one pitch) save. That's not impressive! That's a cheap save where he does almost no work. Anyway, there ends my rant against K-Rod's overhyped run at the record.

Final Score This one came down to the final scoring on the final point, like I expected but unfortunately my partner here at 411 was taken down by Csonka by a tough 7-5 score, all behind Rizz's love for the saves statistic. That is it for the quarters.

First Round	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	FINALS
May 18 James Thomlison vs. Porfirio Diaz	July 20 James Thomlison vs. Dan Schmidt	August 17 James Thomlison vs. Shawn Lealos	August 31 ??? vs. ???
May 25 Dan Schmidt vs. B.L. Anderson
June 1 Geoff Keller vs. Shawn Lealos	July 27 Shawn Lealos vs. Ron Martin
June 8 Ron Martin vs. Jared Marcus
June 15 Sean Garmer vs. Bayani Domingo	August 3 Sean Garmer vs. Sat	August 24 Sean Garmer vs. Larry Csonka
June 22 Jerrome Cusson vs. Sat
June 29 Randy Isbelle vs. Jake Chambers	August 10 Randy Isbelle vs. Larry Csonka
July 6 Blake Lovell vs. Larry Csonka

We will be back next week to roll straight into the final 4. It began with 16 and now it is just JT, Lealos, Garmer, and Csonka. Who will it be in the finals? We will be half way there at the end of next week.