411’s WWE RPI Rankings 05.25.13

Click here for the entire spreadsheet containing win/loss records and detailed calculations for the past two months.

Overview of this week’s rankings
John Cena remains on top of this week’s RPI rankings despite his draw against Ryback at Extreme Rules.

Kofi Kingston has benefited immensely from his program with the Shield and specifically Dean Ambrose. Whether this booking continues or not will greatly impact his RPI rankings for the next few months.

The “debut” of Curtis Axel and his mere presence in the ring with Triple H helped him gain 14 RPI points. If Axel faces lower card opponents, expect his rise in the RPI rankings to be gradual (since 1/2 of the RPI ranking depends on the opponent’s win/loss percentage). But if Axel is allowed to demonstrate his talents against quality opponents, he could easily rise to the top in a hurry.

Alberto Del Rio, Jack Swagger and Big Show had the biggest falls over the last week stemming from losses at Extreme Rules (Swagger, Big Show) and Raw (Del Rio v. Big E. Langston). In order for them to have greater momentum, they’ll need to face a wider variety of opponents since all three superstars have been embroiled in similar feuds since Wrestlemania.

Extreme Rules Predictions
RPI predicted the winners in half of the matches at last week’s PPV while win/loss percentage predicted the winner in 75% of matches.

Correctly predicted by RPI
The MiZ def. Cody Rhodes
Dean Ambrose def. Kofi Kingston
Roman Reign & Seth Rollins def. Team Hell No
Chris Jericho def. Fandango

Incorrectly predicted by RPI
Brock Lesnar def. Triple H
Randy Orton def. The Big Show
Sheamus def. Mark Henry
Alberto Del Rio def. Jack Swagger

WWE Superstar	RPI Ranking	Win-Loss-Draw Record
1) John Cena	66.7	4-1-1
2) Undertaker	64.1	2-1-0
3) Mark Henry	62.9	10-4-0
4) Roman Reigns	61.9	10-1-0
5) Seth Rollins	60.0	10-2-0
6) Sheamus	59.3	12-2-1
7) Kane	59.3	10-6-0
8) Dean Ambrose	58.6	10-2-2
9) Kofi Kingston	58.5	9-9-1
10) Randy Orton	58.0	15-3-1
11) Dolph Ziggler	57.8	7-6-0
12) Wade Barrett	55.8	7-9-0
13) Daniel Bryan	55.8	8-8-1
14) Chris Jericho	55.5	8-5-0
15) Alberto Del Rio	55.5	11-4-1
16) Jack Swagger	55.0	7-8-3
17) The Miz	53.7	9-2-0
18) Ricardo Rodriguez	53.7	3-0-1
19) Big Show	51.4	5-7-0
20) Fandango	51.0	6-3-0
21) R-Truth	50.9	6-1-0
22) Zeb Coulter	50.2	0-5-1
23) Big E Langston	49.8	4-6-1
24) Ryback	49.0	7-2-1
25) Sin Cara	48.7	2-1-0
26) Damien Sandow	48.6	4-10-1
27) Jimmy Uso	47.9	7-5-0
28) The Great Khali	47.7	5-2-1
29) Tensai	47.5	6-4-1
30) Cody Rhodes	47.4	6-9-1
31) Jey Uso	47.3	7-5-0
32) Antonio Cesaro	45.9	3-12-0
33) Curtis Axel	45.9	2-4-0
34) Brodus Clay	45.5	5-4-1
35) Titus O’Neil	43.7	1-9-0
36) Epico	43.0	0-6-0
37) Darren Young	42.9	1-11-0
38) Primo	42.9	0-7-0
39) Drew McIntyre	40.0	1-7-0
40) Justin Gabriel	39.8	2-7-0
41) Santino Marella	38.7	2-5-0
42) Heath Slater	38.5	0-9-0
43) Jinder Mahal	37.0	1-7-0
44) Zack Ryder	35.6	1-11-0
45) Triple H	19.1	1-2-0

WWE Diva	RPI Ranking	Win-Loss-Draw Record
1) AJ Lee	63.9	3-2-0
2) Nikki Bella	55.3	4-3-0
3) Naomi	52.1	4-3-0
4) Brie Bella	51.0	3-4-0
5) Kaitlyn	49.9	5-3-0
6) Cameron	48.9	3-3-0
7) Tamina Snuka	44.9	1-3-0
8) Natalya	42.0	5-1-0
9) Layla	41.9	3-1-0
10) Aksana	34.4	0-5-0

Top ten movers over the last 4 weeks

Gainers		Sliders
1) Curtis Axel	+3.9	1) Undertaker	-3.8
2) AJ Lee	+3.9	2) Tamina Snuka	-2.3
3) Kane	+3.6	3) Aksana	-2.3
4) Daniel Bryan	+3.1	4) Brie Bella	-1.9
5) Kofi Kingston	+2.4	5) Roman Reigns	-1.6
6) Dolph Ziggler	+1.9	6) Ryback	-1.6
7) Wade Barrett	+1.8	7) Nikki Bella	-1.5
8) Titus O’Neil	+1.8	8) Layla	-1.4
9) The Miz	+1.7	9) Seth Rollins	-1.4
10) Sheamus	+1.5	10) Dean Ambrose	-1.4

RPI Explained
The ratings percentage index (RPI; out of 100) is a method which ranks teams or individuals based upon their wins, losses and strength of schedule. It is used by the NCAA to aid in the selecting and seeding of teams appearing in tournaments such as basketball’s March Madness.

Why are RPI rankings superior to simple win-loss records? Imagine a superstar that wins matches only against jobbers. Sure, their win/loss record will be stellar but by facing opponents who always lose, their RPI will not be as high as a superstar who wins half their matches but always faces opponents with stellar win/loss records. Using a statistically valid approach to examine WWE superstars will allow fans to determine if their favorite wrestler is being booked appropriately and whether their stock is rising or falling.

The factors involved are:
* 1) the superstar’s winning percentage (25%)
* 2) the average winning percentage of the superstar’s opponents (50%)
* 3) the average winning percentage of the superstar’s opponents’ opponents (25%)

Win-loss records are calculated for every WWE superstar over the past 2 months from Monday Night Raw, Smackdown, Superstars, Main Event, Saturday Morning Slam, and pay-per-views. Superstars must have competed in at least 3 matches over the past 2 months to be included in the overall RPI rankings.