411 Fact or Fiction Wrestling 01.05.06: 2006 Preview Edition!

Posted by Ashish on 01.05.2006

It's week SIXTY THREE of Fact or Fiction with J.D. Dunn, Ryan Byers, and the prospects of a big TNA vs. WWE war in '06...

After a two week break, 411 Fact or Fiction is back! This week, J.D. Dunn and Ryan Byers take part in a special 2006 preview edition! Let's get to it!


1. After becoming a star in 2005, Samoa Joe will leave TNA and jump to WWE before 2006 ends.

Ryan Byers: FICTION. Obviously we can't predict anything with certainty, but there are so many contingencies that would have to occur for a Joe jump to take place. As a result, I can't say in good faith that it will happen. First of all, we have to assume that Joe's TNA contract actually does end sometime in 2006 and that, if it does, he won't sign an extension. We also have to assume that Joe actually wants to be a part of WWE. Sure, it is considered by many to be the ultimate accomplishment of a professional wrestler. However, signing with the company means that Joe gives up a good deal of creative freedom that he has on the indies as well as giving up the ability to appear in ROH, a company that he has chosen to work for in the past, even in the face of more lucrative Japanese bookings. We also have to assume that the reported WWE interest in Joe is a.) actually exists and b.) will endure until his TNA contract expires. There's an old saying that goes something like this: "When you assume, you make an ass out of Uma Thurman." There are tons of assumptions to be made before we can predict that Joe will jump to WWE . . . and I'm just not willing to hurt Uma's image that badly.

J.D. Dunn: FICTION. If for no other reason than Joe knows that they won't bring in an outside and push him the way TNA has and, while he may make more money in the short term, the long-term damage to his career would mean less money over the life of his career. The only scenario I can see is if TNA buyrates and rating were to suddenly soar with him on top. That would justify Vince bringing him in as a top guy.

Score: 1 for 1


2. TNA will finish 2006 with a Monday night timeslot for Impact.

Ryan Byers: FICTION. TNA might get a prime time slot by the end of 2006, but I sincerely doubt that it will be on Mondays. SpikeTV executives are obviously aware of how popular their wrestling product is in comparison with WWE . . . they just have to look at the ratings. Putting a show that currently draws less than a 1.0 against a show that consistently draws between a 3.5 and a 3.8 would be suicide, especially if you take in to consideration that TNA would face added competition on Monday nights from programming like Monday Night Football. One could argue that all of these statements were true of WCW right before they started running head-to-head with the WWF, but most wrestling fans at least knew WCW existed and knew Nitro would be starting up even if they didn't watch the old programming on TBS. TNA remains far too much of a niche product. Not enough wrestling fans know that it exists for a Monday night slot to be successful.

J.D. Dunn: FACT. Well, actually they already do. But since I assume we're talking first runs, I think that Spike would be well-advised to give TNA an occasional trial run up against the WWE like they've done on Thursday nights. People, like my esteemed colleague Mr. Byers, are making the assumption that since you can't watch both shows at the same time and that the audience for each show is the same, TNA's ratings will go down dramatically. It is a logical assumption. However, I believe that the "strip mall" scenario is more likely. Let me explain: In many small cities and inner city urban areas there are parts of town that are barren and without legitimate businesses, but there are people living there. Suddenly, someone decides to bring in a Blockbuster Video to give people something to do. It's a hit. Then, someone figures out that people would probably like something to eat while they watched those videos. A short time later, a Pizza Hut opens right next to the Blockbuster. And wouldn't it be convenient if you could get your photos finished while you were looking for a movie? Voila. One-hour photo place right there on the same corner. But you can't have Pizza every night. How about a KFC? In other words, it takes one show to bring the audience to a certain night, but once they're there, they have choices on what to watch. But for my scenario to be right, you'd have to assume that men like to flip back and forth between channels or something.

Score: 1 for 2


3. RAW ratings will see a significant, long-term boost in 2006.

Ryan Byers: FICTION. In order for a ratings increase to take place, McMahon & Co. need to do something new and different to capture the imaginations of the "casual" fanbase that they were able to draw in during the Hogan and Austin eras. McMahon was willing to try something different with Hogan because he thought that it could take him national and crush his competition. McMahon was willing to try something different with Austin because his company was bleeding money at an incredible rate. As things stand now, WWE is still posting great profits every quarter and is the only major wrestling promotion in the United States, thus giving the McMahon family no reason for changing the status quo.

J.D. Dunn: FICTION. As Jim Cornette used to say, there are two scenarios where something draws money. One is when there is some sort of Hogan/Andre dream match as we saw in the late 1980s. The only thing left there is Hogan vs. Austin, and that's a one-shot WrestleMania deal. The other scenario is where people suddenly start to think, "Hey, these guys are really mad at each other. I know everything else is fake, but this looks real." And that's what we saw at nauseum with Vince Russo in 1998-1999 (or with the NOW in 1996). Unfortunately, with this writing staff, they just don't seem to be able to connect with the audience in any meaningful way, and Vince likes to do things so over-the-top that there's no chance of you mistaking it for something "real."

Score: 2 for 3


---SWITCHAROO!!!---


4. TNA will sign a former WWE World Champion in '06, creating even more of a "war" with WWE.

J.D. Dunn: FICTION. It's not that I believe that TNA won't be able to sign a former champion, it's just that anyone that TNA signs will be perceived as second class by the average fan. Outside of Steve Austin or maybe Mick Foley, there's really no one that would make an impact. Brock Lesnar seems to be the name on everyone's lips, but Brock wasn't drawing that much money to begin with (relative to other WWE Champions) and he's been out of the public eye for over a year. Let's face it, the WWE name is what draws money. Much like Coke, people will drink it for its brand recognition even if they prefer the taste of Pepsi.

Ryan Byers: FICTION. JD already addressed the problems associated with getting people to watch TNA after a major jump, and I agree wholeheartedly. However, I'd like to add that, even if there is a big jump, it wouldn't create a "war" between the two companies unless the jump actually caused TNA to become a legitimate threat to WWE. Right now, Vince's empire is bloated and unmotivated thanks to high quarterly profits. So long as the bottom line remains acceptable, TNA could sign Stephanie McMahon and book her as the female version of Bastion Booger without the E batting an eyelash.

Score: 3 for 4


5. Edge will win the WWE Title in 2006.

J.D. Dunn: FACT. Even though they seem to hold Edge to a higher standard of "overness" than many other wrestlers, I still can't see them ignoring him completely. Edge has shown that he can do a pretty good promo, he can have a serviceable match with most wresters and a great match with great wrestlers. The bigger problem is that virtually every heel (even Kurt Angle) pales in comparison with HHH and Vince McMahon. That's something he'll struggle to overcome when he wins his title.

Ryan Byers: FACT. Or he'll win the World Heavyweight Title, whatever. Edge is an essentially home grown talent who WWE have put a lot of time and money in to since his return from neck surgery. The company has clearly gotten behind the man enough to indicate that they believe he could be a top wrestler. The only problem is that various factors outside of the company's control (the fans turning on babyface Edge, Matt Hardy, Copeland's current injury) have prevented the bookers from finally pulling the trigger and putting the big belt on him. Furthermore, with Triple H's act getting stale and guys like Chris Masters not being ready for prime time, Edge could prove to be a valuable main event heel who, if nothing else, will bridge the gap between those two generations. Without an Edge title reign, WWE will have done nothing but wasted a lot of time and potential.

Score: 4 for 5


6. Brock Lesnar will return to WWE by December.

J.D. Dunn: FICTION. Brock and the WWE have put themselves in a situation where Brock can't come back any time soon, and if he does, he can't be used properly. To have a man announce he's leaving the company basically on the same day he leaves and then welcome him back at the top of the card while other wrestlers have seen toiling away through hard times wouldn't sit well with an already grumpy locker room. Vince and company have already decided they're not going to pay him what he wants, and Brock can make good money doing dream matches with various other promotions. Besides, that new penis tattoo on his chest can't help his drawing power.

Ryan Byers: FICTION. Vince McMahon has forgiven a lot of people for a lot of things, some of which were worse than what Lesnar has done. Vince's forgiveness has never come this quickly, though. There seems to have been so much ill will between the parties in the current legal proceedings that nobody will be willing to forgive and forget for at least one year. Besides, the whole reason that Brock Lesnar left WWE in the first place was that he was not happy with life on the road. Right now he's got his gig in Japan, which gives him the reduced schedule that he wanted combined with nearly equivalent pay and a push bigger than anything he would get upon a WWE return. So, even if the E opens their arms wide, Brock may not be so quick to accept an offer.

Score: 5 for 6


These two finish 4 for 6! Join us next week for MORE Fact or Fiction!