The Hamilton Ave Journal 10.13.07: Volume 1 Issue 3
Posted by JP Prag on 10.13.2007
A five year history of RAW Ratings, the decline of the WWEs farm league, TNAs new sponsor, WWEs public face, and Hulk Hogans return to the top ten
THE HAMILTON AVE JOURNAL
By JP Prag
Volume 1 Issue 3
ABOUT THE JOURNAL
The Hamilton Ave Journal is the only wrestling news report focused solely on the business of wrestling. Here in the Journal we not only look at the stories that are important to the investor and business-minded person, but also delve deeper into stories that most fans of wrestling would overlook. That is because the Journal is about getting the heart of the matters that affect the companies and outlooks of the wrestling world.
And where is Hamilton Ave? That is the location of the WWE Production Studio in Stamford, CT, and thus the most powerful place in the wrestling world. Besides, The East Main Street Journal just does not have the right ring to it.
Who am I? I am JP Prag: consultant, entrepreneur, businessman, journalist, and wrestling fan.
Now, ring the bell because the market is open.
WHAT'S NEWS
The Journal's front page area known as What's News isn't just about telling you what has happened. The stories in this section are about what will have an effect on the wrestling industry, individual federations, and the wallets of the fans.
Lead Story: RAW's rating hits decade low
The big news that hit Tuesday morning was that Monday night RAW's rating scored a record low 2.8. Facing stiff competition from football, baseball, and ongoing season premiers, RAW was not able to ride any momentum from No Mercy and actually slashed its audience by 12.5%. This was the lowest non-holiday, off-day, or ratings snafu since December 15, 1997.
Obviously, one week of ratings is not a trend. If we look at RAW ratings over the past year, the word "volatile" would be more apt than trending downward. What is interesting is to compare how RAW has faired historically at this time of year. The chart below demonstrates RAW ratings for the 13 weeks of September through November for the past five year.
With the exception of 2005, RAW has consistently dipped in ratings in late September and early October before rebounding to previously levels and then rising come the following months. Should RAW follow the same pattern as previous years, RAW will return to a 3.8 average rating in December.
Overall, RAW's ratings are still down compared to the last three years, and the questions remains if this is the bottom. As noted on the main page, network ratings and cable ratings are calculated differently, so SmackDown! actually had more viewers last week than RAW. Will that mean the WWE will focus and push its blue brand more? Unlikely as they receive more revenue from their deal with NBC/Universal than the CW.
On the same front, SmackDown! and ECW saw no change in their ratings, while TNA saw a slight dip but remained relatively the same. It is only RAW that is seeing such large shifts in its audience, meaning there are other factors at play than just the wrestling content.
What is concerning many is that NBC/Universal's contract with the WWE comes to an end next year (April is believed). Although many are already saying the WWE will not have a home, RAW remains consistently in the top ten rated programs in cable as well as one of the top rated shows on USA. Although down, RAW (and ECW which dominates SciFi even with its small rating) are still cornerstones of NBC/Universal's cable plans. Remember that at the last contract negotiation, the deal changed so that USA pays the WWE for their programming and then sells ad time themselves to recoup the costs. Before, the WWE was responsible for ad time and paid USA a fee. When contracts come up for negotiation again, expect the WWE to be locked into a less lucrative contract, or take their chances with fX, which has flirted with wrestling for years.
The trouble with youth
More shakeups continue in the world of the WWE developmental system, now under the tutelage of Ty Bailey.
First up, Nick Dinsmore was hired by OVW as a trainer of their intermediate class, which is rumored to have been his future anyway. Many speculate that his firing from the company was for Wellness show, and that he was always going to be hired back for this position anyway. Now the WWE will pay Dinsmore less, although he'll not have to travel and recoup those costs, so it may just come out in the wash. It remains to be seen if Mr. Dinsmore will be able to return to the main roster or this is his role for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, newest SmackDown! diva Kissy Vain and RAW house show employee Ryan O'Reilly asked for their releases from the company. Apparently, the two have been dating for some time and did not enjoy being separated from one another on different brands and tour schedules. At the same time, WWE developmental talent Teddy Hart has also seemingly left the company, though details are limited at this time. All three competed in the new FCW territory.
This amount of young talent that was heavily invested in leaving is quite concerning. It means that not only is the investment not paying back, but that the WWE is again short of creating a new crop of wrestlers. Successful baseball teams like the Red Sox give much of the credit of their success to their farm leagues, and thoughts were the WWE was trying to do the same. Instead, there appears to be more trouble in the system than noted before. Mr. Bailey will have his hands full in the months ahead.
Word is also going around that many developmental talent feel they are being more yelled at than critiqued on how to improve their performances. This came to a head this past week when Tony Atlas visited OVW and lambasted ECW champion CM Punk. Apparently, Mr. Atlas did not know who CM Punk was and said that he would never be called up to television with his attitude. On top of that, Atlas DaBone then went to Tony Atlas afterward and apologized for CM Punk's behavior, much to the chagrin of CM Punk and the developmental talent.
The WWE needs to realize there is a much larger issue going on their farm system, and if they do nothing to correct it, the output for the future will be worse than they fear.
TNA gains a new sponsor
In a press release dated October 8, 2007, TNA and Midway games jointly announced their new partnership, with Midway being a sponsor for Bound for Glory weekend as well as an ongoing relationship. In 2008, Midway will release TNA's new video game, one that the company hopes will not just bring in revenue, but also spread knowledge of the brand.
This announcement is particularly exciting because it shows that TNA and Midway do already have a close working relationship, something TNA needs to have and is able to take advantage of. Look for more deals and sponsorships between the two in the years ahead. Midway wants TNA to succeed so that their game will do well, so Midway may promote TNA in the coming months even more than TNA and Spike do themselves.
WWE puts on a new face
Several interesting articles have been release by the WWE this week. In England and the United States, the WWE is sponsoring reading programs for children. Meanwhile, CM Punk is being followed around by CNN for a documentary on the wrestling business.
Since the Chris Benoit double-murder-suicide, and the subsequent illegal substances investigation, the WWE has been reeling in the general media. For the first time in months, the WWE is actually being pro-active about their image by trying to show the positive side of the WWE. First, they are giving back by helping illiteracy (along with voting as seen in the past), a strong image to put before hulking brutes in underwear. Second, the person who is representing them in a documentary about the wrestling business is CM Punk. Since Mr. Punk is straight edge, he will show the positive signs of wrestling with none of the pain killer or steroid abuse, making it seem like the idea of everyone being on drugs as overblown. CM Punk will prove that you do not need those substances to be a success story.
Is it all control spin? Yes, most definitely. But it might be the effective control the WWE needs to get themselves out of the spotlight and on track for 2008.
MARKETPLACE
In the Marketplace we look at the trends in television ratings. This section is less for critical analysis by the Journal but more for the reader to see what is really going on and to draw their own conclusions.
As with stocks, here in the Journal we track the progress of television ratings. If ratings are the barometer by which we judge the product, then over the course of 52 weeks we should be able to see patterns, trends, and anomalies. Please note that gaps in the chart below are due to data not being released/available.
For the week ending Friday October 12, 2007, here are the current standings of our shows:
RAW
Close (This Week's Rating): 2.8
Open (Last Week's Rating): 3.2
Percentage Change: ▼ 12.5%
52-Week High: 4.3
52-Week Low: 2.5
All Time High: 8.1
All Time Low: 1.8
SmackDown!*
Close (This Week's Rating): 2.5
Open (Last Week's Rating): 2.5
Percentage Change: UNCH
52-Week High: 3.3
52-Week Low: 2.2
All Time High: 5.8
All Time Low: 1.0
* SmackDown! ratings may include fast overnight if final ratings are not posted. Also, SmackDown! ratings are for the prior week as overnights are not available before this article goes to print.
ECW
Close (This Week's Rating): 1.2
Open (Last Week's Rating): 1.2
Percentage Change: UNCH
52-Week High: 2.3
52-Week Low: 0.9
All Time High**: 2.3
All Time Low**: 0.6
** ECW's All Time figures include ECW on TNN
TNA iMPACT
Close (This Week's Rating): 1.1 (1.05)
Open (Last Week's Rating): 1.1
Percentage Change: ▼ 4.5%
52-Week High: 1.2
52-Week Low: 0.6
All Time High: 1.2
All Time Low: 0.6
Analysis:
The ratings were covered well this week as the lead story, but it is interesting to note again that SmackDown! and ECW, while down to a few months ago, have remained relatively steady compared to the more volatile RAW.
MONEY AND INVESTING
We all know that wrestling is a business, but we don't often pay attention to what sells and makes money. Money and Investing looks into the top selling items in the world of wrestling and any interesting figures that may have come out this week.
What are the top ten selling items for the WWE? From WWEShopZone.com:
1. WWE Action Trading Cards
2. Triple H Grey Skull T-shirt
3. John Cena Youth Halloween 2007 Package
4. WWE Black Gift Bag
5. WWE SmackDown! vs. RAW 2008 PS2 Game
6. John Cena Beware of Dog T-shirt
7. Hulk Hogan Red Hulkamania Bandana
8. Hardy Purple Logo Pennant
9. WWE SmackDown! vs. RAW 2008 PS2 Package
10. Randy Orton Skull T-shirt
The WWE list takes a very interesting turn this week with the introduction of the Action Trading Card game (#1) and the new Playstation game (#5 and #9). These products could not have come at a better time since, as we noted last week, without John Cena around his sales will decline. Even this week he still holds two of the top ten spots, making him leaving even more precarious. Interesting to note is that Hulk Hogan is back on the list. When someone who has not been on your roster for over a year outsells existing superstars, you can bet that there are rocky roads ahead.
TNA requires a little bit more research. Their website does not release Top Ten lists, so the Journal does a general search for a space and sorted by most popular. They came up in order as:
1. The Original 3 DVD Set
2. Against All Odds 2007 DVD
3. Sacrifice 2007 DVD
4. TNA Tryout Tickets
5. Christian Cage Instant Classic T-shirt
6. Best of the Bloodiest Brawls 2003
7. Against All Odds 2006 DVD
8. Sting Crawl T-shirt
9. No Surrender 2006 DVD
10. TNA Anthology The Epic DVD Set
Some interesting movement on TNA's list as fan interaction has dropped off the list after being the only mover last week while the TNA Tryout Tickets have suddenly jumped. Surprisingly, the tryouts may end up being a money-maker for TNA, though that was not their intended use. This is similar to when Blockbuster discovered that 46% of their revenue came from late fees (this was back in the early 90's when such things were possible). Perhaps TNA has stumbled upon another revenue stream for the future?
PERSONAL JOURNAL
Wrestling isn't just about watching and reading. The best way to be a wrestling fan is to experience it live. Where is wrestling coming to in the next 2 weeks? The Personal Journal answers that question.
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
14 (Oct)
TNA Bound for Glory Atlanta, GA
RAW Live Glasgow, U.K
SmackDown! Live Butlins, Minehead, U.K.
15
TNA iMPACT Orlando, FL
SmackDown! Live Newcastle, U.K.
RAW Birmingham, U.K.
16
TNA iMPACT Orlando, FL
RAW Live London, U.K.
SmackDown/ECW Birmingham, U.K.
17
RAW Live Cardiff, U.K.
SmackDown! Live Manchester, U.K.
18
RAW Live Sheffield, U.K.
SmackDown! Live Nottingham, U.K.
19
RAW Live Belfast, Ireland
SmackDown! Live Glasgow, Scotland
ROH Las Vegas, NV
20
RAW Live Belfast, Ireland
SmackDown! Live Aberdeen, U.K.
>
21
ROH San Francisco, CA
22
RAW Omaha, NE
23
SmackDown! Kansas City, MO
24
25
26
27
Do you know a wrestling event coming up? Send one in to The Hamilton Ave Journal and we'll be sure to add it to the list.
EDITORIALS
The Editorials section is designed for you, the readers, to respond to the views presented in the Journal, send an important news item, or talk about another overlooked business related item in wrestling. Just beware: the Journal reserves the right to respond back.
No critical pieces were written this issue, so instead worth your read this week is:
