The Hamilton Ave Journal 12.15.07: Volume 1 – Issue 12

Posted by JP Prag on 12.15.2007

TNA and ROH go head-to-head, ECW backs away from a fight with iMPACT, the WWE opens another avenue for children, and a full analysis of RAW’s big Monday rating.

THE HAMILTON AVE JOURNAL
By JP Prag

Volume 1 – Issue 12

ABOUT THE JOURNAL

The Hamilton Ave Journal is the only wrestling news report focused solely on the business of wrestling. Here in the Journal we not only look at the stories that are important to the investor and business-minded person, but also delve deeper into stories that most fans of wrestling would overlook. That is because the Journal is about getting the heart of the matters that affect the companies and outlooks of the wrestling world.

And where is Hamilton Ave? That is the location of the WWE Production Studio in Stamford, CT, and thus the most powerful place in the wrestling world. Besides, The East Main Street Journal just does not have the right ring to it.

Who am I? I am JP Prag: consultant, entrepreneur, businessman, journalist, and wrestling fan.

Now, ring the bell because the market is open.




WHAT'S NEWS

The Journal's front page area known as What's News isn't just about telling you what has happened. The stories in this section are about what will have an effect on the wrestling industry, individual federations, and the wallets of the fans.

TNA expands schedule, goes against other organizations
After cancelling house shows in Mexico last week, TNA has added more domestic shows in key American states Ohio and Oklahoma, along with shows already booked for Texas. TNA is not letting the negative press of cancelling shows stop potential momentum as they look to continue to set up a wider base in 2008. A domestic plan seems a wiser strategy, especially as smaller venues that TNA can more easily fill. These trips should be less about making money and more about spreading awareness and loyalty in the brand.

Of interesting note, the house show in the Dayton area on January 25th will put TNA in competition with ROH which will be holding a show a few miles away. Similarly, TNA just announced a new house show on February 22nd in Deer Park, Long Island while ROH will be fifteen miles away in Westbury, Long Island.

It will be interesting to see the number of attendees for both shows and what type of crowd each draws. There may be a significant crossover in fan-base and these people will each chose a show, or TNA and ROH could have significantly different audience and could draw decent crowds close together. Although it is known that TNA has about 1.1 million fans based on ratings for iMPACT, the number of fans/customers of ROH remains elusive.


ECW moves back
In a change from original plans, ECW on SciFi will now air in its regular timeslot on December 25th instead of the Thursday night timeslot on December 27th. The latter timeslot, like last week, would have put ECW head-to-head with TNA iMPACT again. Last week, this lead to iMPACT maintaining its 1.1 rating while ECW shed more than half of its audience and scored an all-time low of 0.6.

This decision must be seen as a major coup for TNA. Originally, the plan was that in order for ECW to maintain a viable rating that week, it meant moving the day/time of the show. But, as demonstrated, ECW can no longer go head-to-head with TNA without taking a significant hit. And if ratings are going to be down anyway, SciFi thought it would be better to keep ECW in its normal block. At the very least, the show will actually bolster Christmas day, even if it loses a third of its audience.

So now, it is more beneficial to get a smaller rating on Christmas Day that would look like a success than instead losing the ratings race to TNA again, which is looking solid in its own block despite any day or competition.


WWE focuses on children
After last week's story discussing the WWE older skewed audience, the WWE has announced that they are creating a new magazine geared towards children. It would seem as if the WWE has noticed that their audience is growing older and/or leaving and that they need to backfill with younger people in order to have more fans in the future. Adding this magazine would be a gross departure from previous company marketing literature that said the target demographic was males 16-34.

By targeting children, the WWE opens themselves up to more probing by the PTC because they can no longer say that their programming is directly only at mature audiences. Then again, with the recent renewal of AM RAW, WWE can claim that they also have programming that is more child-friendly that removes the racier content. After all, RAW is not on during a timeslot that is meant for children while AM RAW is on Saturday mornings at 9am.

Overall, it looks as if the WWE has several programs in place to target children and grow that market. Should demographic information become available for AM RAW, the Journal will investigate the results and consequences.


MARKETPLACE

In the Marketplace we look at the trends in television ratings. This section is less for critical analysis by the Journal but more for the reader to see what is really going on and to draw their own conclusions.

As with stocks, here in the Journal we track the progress of television ratings. If ratings are the barometer by which we judge the product, then over the course of 52 weeks we should be able to see patterns, trends, and anomalies. Please note that gaps in the chart below are due to data not being released/available.

For the week ending Thursday December 14, 2007, here are the current standings of our shows:





RAW
Close (This Week's Rating): 4.1
Open (Last Week's Rating): 3.2
Percentage Change: ▲ 28.1%
52-Week High: 4.3
52-Week Low: 2.5
All Time High: 8.1
All Time Low: 1.8

SmackDown!*
Close (This Week's Rating): 2.6
Open (Last Week's Rating): 2.6
Percentage Change: UNCH
52-Week High: 3.3
52-Week Low: 2.2
All Time High: 5.8
All Time Low: 1.0

* SmackDown! ratings may include fast overnight if final ratings are not posted. Also, SmackDown! ratings are for the prior week as overnights are not available before this article goes to print.

ECW
Close (This Week's Rating): 1.3
Open (Last Week's Rating): 0.6
Percentage Change: ▲ 116.7%
52-Week High: 2.3
52-Week Low: 0.6
All Time High**: 2.3
All Time Low**: 0.6

** ECW's All Time figures include ECW on TNN

TNA iMPACT***
Close (This Week's Rating): 1.1
Open (Last Week's Rating): 1.1
Percentage Change: UNCH
52-Week High: 1.2
52-Week Low: 0.6
All Time High: 1.2
All Time Low: 0.6

*** TNA iMPACT's are for the prior week as ratings may not be available at the time of the Journal's posting

Analysis:
Obviously, the ratings news this week focuses on RAW's big numbers. Only looking at the normal 9-11 slot, the show did a relatively tremendous 4.4 rating. That rating would top the 52-week high and would be the first time since February 6, 2006 that RAW had a rating above 4.4. That said, the average rating for the FY2006 was a 3.9 while the average rating for FY07 thus far is a 3.7. On top of that, if we break it down by year-halves, you see this trend:

FY06-Q1Q2: 4.1
FY06-Q3Q4: 3.7
FY07-Q1Q2: 3.9
FY07-Q2Q4 (thus far): 3.4

Overall, a downward trend can be seen. Although one-off shows like RAW-XV can be a shot in the arm, there is no lasting impact. What RAW demonstrated this week is how many viewers it has lost over the years and how many it cannot bring back on a weekly basis. Next week will be the telling number if this show brought any viewers back into the fold, but most likely there will not be a significant jump.


MONEY AND INVESTING

We all know that wrestling is a business, but we don't often pay attention to what sells and makes money. Money and Investing looks into the top selling items in the world of wrestling and any interesting figures that may have come out this week.

What are the top ten selling items for the WWE? From WWEShopZone.com:

1. WWE Black Gift Bag
2. John Cena My Life DVD
3. Shawn Michael Heartbreak and Triumph DVD Retro T-shirt Package
4. Triple H The Conqueror T-shirt
5. The Triumph and Tragedy of World Class Championship Wrestling
6. WWE Superstar 2007 Ornament
7. Triple H Grey Skull T-shirt
8. Stone Cold Steve Austin Destroyed That T-shirt
9. WWE Best of Raw 15th Anniversary DVD & CD T-Shirt Package
10. Stone Cold Steve Austin Jakks Exclusive Action Figure

There was not a lot of movement at the top, but some interesting trades down below. With one appearance on RAW, Stone Cold is not the dominant figure on the Top Ten. Also with that arrival and two nostalgic DVDs, Chris Jericho has been knocked off of the list. Once again, this bears the question of what is the WWE doing to build for the future and not just leverage the past. The past is giving the company a lot of short term boosts, but is not sustainable forever.

TNA requires a little bit more research. Their website does not release Top Ten lists, so the Journal does a general search for a space on "featured products" and sorts by most popular. They came up in order as:

1. The History of TNA: Year 1 DVD
2. Instant Classic: The Best of Christian Cage DVD
3. TNA Fleece Jacket
4. NEW TNA Hoodie
5. TNA Bound for Glory 2007 DVD
6. TNA Fleece Blanket
7. 2008 Wall Calendar
8. Long Sleeve TNA Logo T-shirt (Charcoal)
9. Long Sleeve TNA Logo T-shirt (Navy)
10. TNA Christmas Ornament

After making it to number one last week, TNA's music CD has completely dropped off the charts. One would have to believe that that product has reached market saturation. TNA, though, has once again shown they are thinking outside the normal spectrum and have added fleece blankets, another winter item. The winter items continue to be revenue generators across the board.


PERSONAL JOURNAL

Wrestling isn't just about watching and reading. The best way to be a wrestling fan is to experience it live. Where is wrestling coming to in the next 2 weeks? The Personal Journal answers that question.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
16 (Dec) WWE Armageddon Pittsburgh, PA	17 RAW Buffalo, NY	18 SmackDown!/ECW Rochester, NY	19	20	21	22
23	24	25	26 RAW Live Nashville, TN SmackDown!/ECW Live Albany, NY	27 TNA Live Montreal, Quebec RAW Live Chattanooga, TN SmackDown!/ECW Live East Rutherford, NJ	28 TNA Live Quebec City, Quebec RAW Live Atlanta, GA SmackDown!/ECW Live Hershey, PA	29 TNA Live Gatineau, Quebec RAW (Tapings) Greensboro, NC SmackDown!/ECW Live Baltimore, MD ROH Live New York City, NY

Do you know a wrestling event coming up? Send one in to The Hamilton Ave Journal and we'll be sure to add it to the list.

EDITORIALS

The Editorials section is designed for you, the readers, to respond to the views presented in the Journal, send an important news item, or talk about another overlooked business related item in wrestling. Just beware: the Journal reserves the right to respond back.

No critical pieces were written this week, so worth your read instead is:

It's hard for me to pick favorites, so I let Jeff Small and Bayani Domingo duke it out in Fact or Fiction

Stuart Carapola gives everyone in the nWo a grade, though I think he underestimates the tag team of Vicious and Delicious.

Andy Clark decided to put together his favorite RAW moments before the show even went on the air. Did any of them make the grade?

Arnold Furious doesn't think WCW Collision in Korea stands up to the test of time, even though the Steiner Bros. loved that show!

And, of course, a week would not be complete without a good dose of my very own HIDDEN HIGHLIGHTS!!

CLOSING BELL

This concludes Issue #12 (Volume 1) of THE HAMILTON AVE JOURNAL. Join us next week as we get ready to ring the bell again.

Till then!