The Hamilton Ave Journal 05.24.08: Volume 1 – Issue 35

Posted by JP Prag on 05.24.2008

MyNetwork TV prepares for SmackDown’s arrival, the WWE loosens its strings on talent, TNA pushes further into Germany, the Journal does a three year analysis of iMPACT’s television ratings, and John Cena finally takes over a second spot in the Top Ten.

THE HAMILTON AVE JOURNAL
By JP Prag

Volume 1 – Issue 35

ABOUT THE JOURNAL

The Hamilton Ave Journal is the only wrestling news report focused solely on the business of wrestling. Here in the Journal we not only look at the stories that are important to the investor and business-minded person, but also delve deeper into stories that most fans of wrestling would overlook. That is because the Journal is about getting the heart of the matters that affect the companies and outlooks of the wrestling world.

And where is Hamilton Ave? That is the location of the WWE Production Studio in Stamford, CT, and thus the most powerful place in the wrestling world. Besides, The East Main Street Journal just does not have the right ring to it.

Who am I? I am JP Prag: consultant, entrepreneur, businessman, journalist, and wrestling fan.

Now, ring the bell because the market is open.




WHAT'S NEWS

The Journal's front page area known as What's News isn't just about telling you what has happened. The stories in this section are about what will have an effect on the wrestling industry, individual federations, and the wallets of the fans.

LEAD STORY: MyNetwork TV Plans Big WWE Debut

This past week, new home for WWE SmackDown MyNetwork TV has made several press releases touting their fall schedule and highlighting the expected impact of when SmackDown premiers. In these, the official launch date for SmackDown was given as Friday October 3, 2008 at 8:00pm EST. This means that the last broadcast of SmackDown on the CW is expected to be September 26, 2008.

Last year, the CW and the WWE held the SmackDown "Season Premier" on September 21, 2007 featuring the wedding of Teddy Long and Krystal Marshal. If the CW considers the beginning of their season the third week in September, they may cancel SmackDown ahead of time leaving the WWE with little momentum moving into the MyNetwork TV era.

Still, MyNetwork TV has many plane in the work for SmackDown, including a huge welcome program. On Thursday night October 2, 2008, the network and the WWE will air a trimmed down version of WrestleMania 24. This is the first time that large portions of a WrestleMania have been shown free over the air, and most definitely the first time that entire matches have been shown for free in the year of the event. The WWE may be looking to this special to also promote the WrestleMania 24 DVD, although that will already have been out for months at that point.

Interesting in the notes from the network is their view of SmackDown:

"WWE SmackDown" will be presented on MyNetworkTV weekly on Fridays and showcase a star-studded cast of WWE Superstars, including Edge®, Rey Mysterio®, Batista®, MVP™ and Undertaker®. It will feature all the action, excitement, drama and great athleticism that have made it for nine years one of the most popular programs among males on broadcast television, and one of the top ten English language prime time programs among Hispanic households.

Based on this, one would have to believe that the network is now going to be trying to target the Hispanic demographic as well as white males 18-35. Will this blend of demographics lead to success? It will be an interesting Fall to watch.


WWE Changing Policies for Less Active Talent

Over the years, the WWE has had stringent control over their talent and where and when they can work. Even those not under wrestling contracts like Jerry Lawler have had their independent bookings disrupted by the WWE. TNA, due to having fewer events and paying far less, has had a less stringent policy and let their wrestlers take other bookings so long as the event did not interfere with TNA bookings and was not broadcast on television or sold on a DVD.

The WWE—now with a pool of talent of 100 active wrestlers on the main roster and looking to have 70 on the development roster—has been considering lowering restrictions on some talents, especially those less or not used. For instance, Hacksaw Jim Duggan is transferring his regular contract to something like a legends deal that will allow him to make more appearance outside of the WWE and without their permission. Mick Foley has such a contract, as does Roddy Pipper.

Now, the NWA is hoping that Ric Flair will be allowed such a deal and be able to appear at events for them over the summer in a sort of fairwell tour. Although the NWA of today has little to do with the organizational structure that made Ric Flair famous, there is history to be considered and only so much Ric Flair can do with his time for the WWE. On the same end, the WWE could use Flair as a scout to see what talent is out there and available, possibly setting up more wrestlers for the development system. This could be a great opportunity for all parties involved.

Although there have been no talks of doing so yet, the WWE should consider creating looser contracts for wrestlers they do not use as much on the house show circuit. Many wrestlers, especially the ones just brought up from development, would do well to continue to hone their craft and work in the smaller venues. This will give them a chance to continue to grow inside and outside the ring while also learning different styles of performing and how to react to different types of audiences.


Newsbites

Some items of note in the rest of the wrestling business world:

Despite the depressed stock price, Jim Cramer had this to say about the WWE's stock:

"They're going a good job and it's a great opportunity. I watch the company's dividend and I like it."

TNA continues a strong push in the German and Austrian markets. They continue to send out German press releases on TNA iMPACT hyping the show and posting these announcements on the main sight (in German).

ROH PPV numbers appear to be coming in line with estimates. But since the company has lost availability recently, estimates may have been trimmed back.

Dateline NBC is planning a special on pro-wrestling that will air sometime in line with the anniversary of the Chris Benoit double murder suicide. No word yet if any active WWE or TNA performers have been interviewed for the broadcast.

MSN Money picked up the story of Victoria opening her own custom motor cycle shop in Louisville, KY. According to the article:

The WWE Smackdown star caught the attention of car enthusiasts around the world earlier this year when she won the YouTube Chrysler 300 "Spin It Your Way" contest. Chrysler asked owners of the Chrysler 300 to submit videos showing how they customized their Chrysler 300 sedan.

According to the Times of India, the Great Khali's arrival in Amritsar International Airport on May 20, 2008 showed holes in airport security. A large number of Khali's fans were able to obtain fake documentation that allowed them to bypass security and great the superstar in a private arrival corridor. No word if the Great Khali will use his position and promotion within the police force to help ramp up security.



MARKETPLACE

In the Marketplace we look at the trends in television ratings. This section is less for critical analysis by the Journal but more for the reader to see what is really going on and to draw their own conclusions.

As with stocks, here in the Journal we track the progress of television ratings. If ratings are the barometer by which we judge the product, then over the course of 52 weeks we should be able to see patterns, trends, and anomalies. Please note that gaps in the chart below are due to data not being released/available.

For the week ending Thursday May 22, 2008, here are the current standings of our shows:





RAW
Close (This Week's Rating): 3.2
Open (Last Week's Rating): 3.3
Percentage Change: ▼ 3.0%
52-Week High: 4.2
52-Week Low: 2.5
All Time High: 8.1
All Time Low: 1.8

SmackDown*
Close (This Week's Rating): 2.4
Open (Last Week's Rating): 2.4
Percentage Change: UNCH
52-Week High: 2.9
52-Week Low: 2.2
All Time High: 5.8
All Time Low: 1.0

* SmackDown! ratings may include fast overnight if final ratings are not posted. Also, SmackDown! ratings are for the prior week as overnights are not available before this article goes to print.

ECW
Close (This Week's Rating): 1.1
Open (Last Week's Rating): 1.1
Percentage Change: UNCH
52-Week High: 1.8
52-Week Low: 0.6
All Time High: 2.3
All Time Low: 0.6

TNA iMPACT**
Close (This Week's Rating): 0.9
Open (Last Week's Rating): 0.9
Percentage Change: ▼ 3.3%
52-Week High: 1.2
52-Week Low: 0.9
All Time High: 1.2
All Time Low: 0.6

** TNA iMPACT's are for the prior week as ratings may not be available at the time of the Journal's posting

Analysis:

Ratings are still in the doldrums with ECW and SmackDown not moving at al and RAW dropping 0.1 (3%) again. What is more interesting is that TNA, with a product that should have no connection to the other ones, hit a new 52-week low of a 0.87 rating. TNA can make excuses all they want that the whole industry is down and that there is heavy competition, but the bottom line is they are hitting lows that they did not hit last year. The average rating in April 2007 was a 1.03 compared to the April 2008 rating of 1.03, so there was no movement upward at all. But May 2007 has a 1.00 average rating while May 2008 has (thus far) a 0.92. Want to take it even further? In May 2006 iMPACT had a 1.05 rating! Take a look at the chart below:



As you can see, 2008 has been an almost straight line down. Even if they were to claim cyclicality, the cycle clearly shows that this is an UP time of year. TNA is very close to approaching ratings that have not been seen since October 2006. And according to both prior years, TNA's ratings sink from July to September. If these ratings are the ones that they go into June/July with, it will be a very rough summer. On the other hand, TNA may be bottoming out. This year may not see a dip because there will be nothing to dip.

SpikeTV may be happy with the ratings, but they will not be happy with a trend that looks like this. Five/Six months ago, TNA was making record ratings. Now they are about to hit record 2/3-year lows. The stride and momentum that TNA had is lost. They need to rebuilt and rethink their product, presentation, and marketing. Although they are approaching profitability through many other schemes, their core demographic is eroding away. They have yet to prove that they can grow and maintain an audience, and take that growth and make them into paying customers.


MONEY AND INVESTING

We all know that wrestling is a business, but we don't often pay attention to what sells and makes money. Money and Investing looks into the top selling items in the world of wrestling and any interesting figures that may have come out this week.

What are the top ten selling items for the WWE? From WWEShopZone.com:

1. Jeff Hardy Armbands ($15)
2. Triple H Hammer T-Shirt ($25)
3. WrestleMania 24 DVD 3-Disc Set ($39.95, on sale $25.93)
4. WWE Party Supplies Pack ($25)
5. John Cena 8-Bit T-Shirt ($25)
6. Hardys Purple Logo Pendant ($10)
7. John Cena Hustle Bracelet ($3)
8. Hardys Twist of Fate DVD/T-Shirt Package ($54.95, on sale $26.99)
9. Triple H Grey Skulls T-Shirt ($28)
10. WWE Black Gift Bag ($3)

Ask and you shall receive. John Cena finally got a second item on the list, this time for his $3 rubber bracelet. These small accessories are where the Hardys do so well ($15 armbands and $10 pendant), so Cena should be trying to capture some of that same market. Triple H is the one with high-priced single item with one of his t-shirts costing 12% more than the other t-shirts. Those few extra dollars will go a long way to increasing the margins on anything Triple H related.

TNA releases a list of Top Ten selling items, but the list has not been updated to current products in quite some time. Until TNA updates the list, the Journal will be take the list of featured products and sorting by most popular. When done so, the list comes up as:

1. TNA Global iMPACT DVD ($19.99)
2. Samoa Joe Lockdown Special ($199.95)
3. LAX Special ($59.99)
4. AJ Styles "Unim Phenomenous" T-Shirt ($19.99)
5. Nash "Big Sexy Tour" T-shirt ($19.99)
6. Samoa Joe "Drastic Times, Drastic Measures" T-Shirt ($19.99)
7. TNA "Cross The Line" T-Shirt ($19.99)
8. Shark Boy 24:7 T-Shirt ($19.99)
9. Sting "Logo" T-Shirt ($19.99)
10. Final Resolution 2008 PPV DVD ($19.99)

LAX with their new tag team championships have returned to the top ten, but only with a large package of autograph pictures, t-shirts, and DVDs. According to ShopTNA.com, there are only 75 of those items, so the fact that they made it to number 3 does not speak well of the volume. And the number two item (Samoa Joe Lockdown Special) only have 100 of them made and it was the number two item two weeks back. If that that is the case, the volume can be derived that perhaps the Samoa Joe item sold 30-40 units in this time period and the LAX item so 20-35. Do the math and you can figure out much of ShopTNA.com's revenue.


PERSONAL JOURNAL

Wrestling isn't just about watching and reading. The best way to be a wrestling fan is to experience it live. Where is wrestling coming to in the next 2 weeks? The Personal Journal answers that question.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
25 (May) SmackDown/ECW Live Loveland, CO	26 RAW Denver, CO TNA iMPACT Orlando, FL	27 SmackDown/ECW Colorado Springs, CO TNA iMPACT Orlando, FL	28	29	30	31
1 (Jun) WWE One Night Stand San Diego, CA	2 RAW Bakersfield, CA	3 SmackDown/ECW Los Angeles, CA	4	5	6 TNA Live Poplar Bluff, MO ROH Live Hartford, CT	7 SmackDown/ECW Live Fresno, CA RAW Live Redding, CA ROH Live Philadelphia, PA

Do you know a wrestling event coming up? Send one in to The Hamilton Ave Journal and we'll be sure to add it to the list.

EDITORIALS

The Editorials section is designed for you, the readers, to respond to the views presented in the Journal, send an important news item, or talk about another overlooked business related item in wrestling. Just beware: the Journal reserves the right to respond back.

From the commentary section last week, continuing a long running theme of marketability JBBTHWK asks:

Is there a Superstar on the Indys that given the right amount of marketability you would consider being able to get over in either WWE or... TNA?

Well the Journal is no expert and has done no scouting missions to do so (but hopefully TNA and the WWE have). To that we turn to the experts like Luke:

Indy guys doing well in WWE/TNA?

Well, Chris Hero is the obvious one. AmDrag, Nigel, Claudio and Aries can all do it in the ring, but their size and mic work means they'd be on the same level as Jamie Noble or Chavo.

Does that count as "being over"?

In this case, the Journal would say not. Most likely what JBBTHWK is looking for are names that can at least make it to Chris Jericho level, given time. But Luke (or another Luke) continued:

Actually, Kevin Steen and Jimmy Jacobs could. Jacobs is awesome on the mic so I could see him getting over as a manager or crazy cult leader.

The Journal would like to hear more about why these and other people are marketable. Consider this a scouting report missions and we will see what comes back next week.

For Hidden Highlights James "JT" Thomlison stopped by to make a point that many other were also making:

That is why we are friends JP. Because you always know if there is Dixie Carter news - and more importantly, a Dixie Carter photograph - that the world, and JT, needs to know about it. Good show, sir.

Of course, the Journal is always here to find the hard hitting news most important to the business world!

Plenty more was written, so be sure to take a look. Also worth your read this week is:

Time is still not on the Journal's side, so instead read In Defense Of… Hulk Hogan (Part 1 of 4)

In Defense Of… Hulk Hogan (Part 2 of 4)

In Defense Of… Hulk Hogan (Part 3 of 4)

In Defense Of… Hulk Hogan (Part 4 of 4)

And, of course, a week would not be complete without a good dose of JP Prag's own HIDDEN HIGHLIGHTS!!


CLOSING BELL

This concludes Issue #35 (Volume 1) of THE HAMILTON AVE JOURNAL. Join us next week as we get ready to ring the bell again.

Till then!