The Hamilton Ave Journal 05.31.08: Volume 1 – Issue 36

Posted by JP Prag on 05.31.2008

The WWE puts HeAT to bed forever, TNA releases a whole new product line (including an exclusive look at TNA’s new trading cards), the Journal does a three year analysis of RAW’s ratings, children take over the Top Ten, and the editorials reveal that WrestleMania already had a network TV debut 13 years ago.

THE HAMILTON AVE JOURNAL
By JP Prag

Volume 1 – Issue 36

ABOUT THE JOURNAL

The Hamilton Ave Journal is the only wrestling news report focused solely on the business of wrestling. Here in the Journal we not only look at the stories that are important to the investor and business-minded person, but also delve deeper into stories that most fans of wrestling would overlook. That is because the Journal is about getting the heart of the matters that affect the companies and outlooks of the wrestling world.

And where is Hamilton Ave? That is the location of the WWE Production Studio in Stamford, CT, and thus the most powerful place in the wrestling world. Besides, The East Main Street Journal just does not have the right ring to it.

Who am I? I am JP Prag: consultant, entrepreneur, businessman, journalist, and wrestling fan.

Now, ring the bell because the market is open.




WHAT'S NEWS

The Journal's front page area known as What's News isn't just about telling you what has happened. The stories in this section are about what will have an effect on the wrestling industry, individual federations, and the wallets of the fans.

LEAD STORY: WWE ends HeAT, changes ECW

Several weeks back, the Journal broke the story that several international markets would no longer be receiving WWE HeAt and instead would get a new program entitled "WWE Classics". At the time, the Journal assumed that this was to cut production costs down of creating native language versions of a product that was not worthwhile and replace it with something that could be replayed several times.

This past week, word broke that that was just the beginning. On June 20, 2008 WWE will upload their last episode of HeAT and replace it with WWE Classics on WWE.com.

HeAT began in on the USA Network in 1998 and was easily the WWE's second most important show at the time. The show featuring appearances by top stars and ratings were high. Even after SmackDown premiered in 1999 and took much of the show's thunder (no pun intended) and importance, HeAT continued to do well, often getting higher ratings than Nitro. Ratings were on the decline, though, when the show moved to MTV in 2000. The downward slope continued, especially after MTV changed management and made it clear they were not interested in having a wrestling product on their airwaves.

In 2005, when the WWE returned to USA after a stink on what eventually became SpikeTV, HeAT and sister program Velocity were not brought along. HeAT then moved to an online only format for the U.S. market while remaining a television show in many other countries.

With HeAT's departure, the idea seems to be to move ECW tapings to before RAW. There are many benefits including creating a less hectic SmackDown taping, giving more time to post-produce the show, and exposing ECW talent to the RAW roster and the schedule of dealing with a live show.

Most assume that the move of ECW to before SmackDown will mean the end of the talent exchange between SmackDown and ECW and the beginning of the talent exchange between RAW and ECW. While that remains to be seen, both RAW and ECW have seen large ratings declines in the past couple of months. Knowing that, RAW may not be the beneficial partner for ECW as originally imagined as the program needs to look at its own core values and issues. More details are available in the Marketplace section below.


TNA previews new product line

One of TNA's strong suits over the past year is the ability to diversify their product line and find items (especially seasonal items) that no other organization is making much of. This has included fleece blankets, three-quarter zip sweaters, polo shirts, and many others.

TNA this past week has announced several new items to their list, although most are in a traditional vein. The items noted by TNA are:

Black "Tomko" Hat

Curry Man Adult T-Shirt (already released)

Curry Man Kids T-Shirt

Samoa Joe Towel (already released)

Girls LAX T-Shirt

TNA has had good showing with Girls shirts in the past, especially ODB's shirt which sat on the Top Ten for a few weeks. Children's items are an area they could definitely grow in, and it looks like guys like Curry Man and Shark Boy are designed to sell more kids items (re: WWE Kidz Initiative). The Samoa Joe Towel… well, are you supposed to use it or just look at it? That item needs a stronger definitive message.

The bigger item coming out, though, is one covered in the Journal already: the new TNA Trading Card Set. This week on TNA Today, Don West reveled that the official launch date for the first set is June 6th, and the Journal has an unofficial yet comprehensive preview courtesy of tnawrestlingcards.com.

First off, as mentioned before, there will be 69 cards in the first set; and the list of those in the cards are:

1: Kurt Angle

2: Christian Cage

3: Samoa Joe

4: A.J. Styles

5: Tomko

6: Booker T

7: Jay Lethal

8: Jeff Jarrett

9: Rhino

10: Curry Man

11: Sting

12: Scott Steiner

13: Robert Roode

14: Eric Young

15: Homicide

16: Hernandez

17: Petey Williams

18: Shark Boy

19: Consequences Creed

20: Alex Shelley

21: Jimmy Rave

22: Rellik

23: Brother Devon

24: Brother Ray

25: Kip James

26: Abyss

27: Lance Hoyt

28: BG James

29: Chris Sabin

30: Kaz

31: Johnny Devine

32: Super Eric

33: Black Reign

34: James Storm

35: Sonjay Dutt

36: A.J. Styles & Tomko

37: Team 3D

38: LAX

39: Rock 'N Rave Infection

40: Motor City Machineguns

41: Karen Angle

42: ODB

43: Awesome Kong

44: Traci Brooks

45: Christy Hemme

46: Sharmell

47: Gail Kim

48: Angelina Love

49: Raisha Saeed

50: SoCal Val

51: Velvet Sky

52: Payton Banks

53: Jacqueline

54: Roxxi Laveaux

55: Salinas

56: Vince Russo

57: James Mitchell

58: Matt Morgan

59: Jim Cornette

60: Earl Hebner

61: Andrew Thomas

62: Rudy Charles

63: Mark Johnson

64: Mike Tenay

65: Don West

66: Jeremy Borash

67: Terry Taylor

68: Dixie Carter

69: Kevin Nash

The one highlighted and bold and underline above may pique some interest.

After the main set, there are also subsets that include…

Mike's Magical Moments


We are TNA


Muscles, INK


Then & Now


Thoughts… by "Big Sexy" Kevin Nash


Beyond that, there is a large list of autograph cards and cards that contain pieces of clothing that wrestlers actually wore.



Yes, that is an actual piece of Gail Kim's underwear.

All and all, there is a large number of cards for collectors to get. Should this be successful, TNA will have revenue streams from this for a long time to come.


Newsbites

Some items of note in the rest of the wrestling business world:

NWE is trying to get television deals in two more European countries. Over two years, the NWE has become the largest European-native wrestling organization and is already has much more reach than any organization outside of WWE, TNA, NJPW, AAA, and a few others.

AM RAW (airing at 2am on Saturday night/Sunday morning) scored its highest rating in a long time with a 1.1. This rating was actually higher than TNA iMPACT in its normal timeslot. Ratings for regular RAW were not quite as good, as can be seen below in Marketplace.


MARKETPLACE

In the Marketplace we look at the trends in television ratings. This section is less for critical analysis by the Journal but more for the reader to see what is really going on and to draw their own conclusions.

As with stocks, here in the Journal we track the progress of television ratings. If ratings are the barometer by which we judge the product, then over the course of 52 weeks we should be able to see patterns, trends, and anomalies. Please note that gaps in the chart below are due to data not being released/available.

For the week ending Thursday May 29, 2008, here are the current standings of our shows:





RAW
Close (This Week's Rating): 2.9
Open (Last Week's Rating): 3.2
Percentage Change: ▼ 9.4%
52-Week High: 4.2
52-Week Low: 2.5
All Time High: 8.1
All Time Low: 1.8

SmackDown*
Close (This Week's Rating): 2.4
Open (Last Week's Rating): 2.4
Percentage Change: UNCH
52-Week High: 2.9
52-Week Low: 2.2
All Time High: 5.8
All Time Low: 1.0

* SmackDown! ratings may include fast overnight if final ratings are not posted. Also, SmackDown! ratings are for the prior week as overnights are not available before this article goes to print.

ECW
Close (This Week's Rating): 1.0
Open (Last Week's Rating): 1.1
Percentage Change: ▼ 9.1%
52-Week High: 1.8
52-Week Low: 0.6
All Time High: 2.3
All Time Low: 0.6

TNA iMPACT**
Close (This Week's Rating): 1.0
Open (Last Week's Rating): 0.9
Percentage Change: ▲ 14.9%
52-Week High: 1.2
52-Week Low: 0.9
All Time High: 1.2
All Time Low: 0.6

** TNA iMPACT's are for the prior week as ratings may not be available at the time of the Journal's posting

Analysis:

Although TNA managed to make it to a 1.0 last week, their average and trend shown last week is still relatively the same. Of course, the big news out of this week is RAW doing a 2.9 rating, its lowest rating since December 31, 2007's 2.6 (as well as December 24, 2007's 2.5). Although the Memorial Day holiday, NBA playoffs, and NHL playoffs (the highest rated in years with a 1.8) had something to do with it, RAW has scored a 3.2 to 3.8 on the same day for the past five years.

To be fair and to show a comparison from last week, below is the three-year trend of RAW's ratings, in the same format as the one shown for TNA last week:



RAW does not have the straight down pattern line that TNA does, but it is showing consistent year-over-year declines. If tends are any indication, the WWE should actually have a peak in ratings in June followed by another dip in July. Should there be no peak in June, the WWE will have serious trouble recovering for the Fall.

As noted many times in the past, the WWE has done nothing to consistently grow ratings and has instead eroded the audience. One-time "big nights" like the upcoming draft have had less and less impact on ratings to the point where the last special 3-hour show actually decreased ratings. Short pops are no replacement for long-term planning.

Word leaked that the WWE creative is in a holding pattern right now. Well, the result of that holding pattern is audience: audience erosion. The tell-tale sign will be PPV buys and conversion rates, but that is still a couple of months away from being made public. Will the WWE make real measures for change, or will a cyclical increase in June convince them that everything is fine and push change off for months to come?


MONEY AND INVESTING

We all know that wrestling is a business, but we don't often pay attention to what sells and makes money. Money and Investing looks into the top selling items in the world of wrestling and any interesting figures that may have come out this week.

What are the top ten selling items for the WWE? From WWEShopZone.com:

1. Triple H Hammer T-Shirt ($25)
2. WWE Illustrated Superstars Spiral Notebook ($5, on sale $2.98)
3. WWE Kids May/June 2008 Magazine ($3.95)
4. WWE Illustrated Superstars 2 Pocket Folder ($4.99)
5. Kane See No Evil Autographed Plaque ($9.99)
6. Hardys Purple Logo Pendant ($10)
7. Jeff Hardy Armbands ($15)
8. John Cena 8-Bit T-Shirt ($25)
9. WWE Black Gift Bag ($3)
10. WrestleMania 24 DVD 3-Disc Set ($39.95, on sale $25.93)

What an odd list the WWE produced this week. It looks like the new issue of the WWE Kids Magazine is picking up pace, along with some other kid-related items in coloring books. Hardy and Cena items could at least partially fall under kids items, so it appears as this is the time of years for kids to be receiving gifts. With summer quickly coming up, grade school graduations, and other such events, it makes sense to see so many child-related items; at least for a while.

TNA releases a list of Top Ten selling items, but the list has not been updated to current products in quite some time. Until TNA updates the list, the Journal will be take the list of featured products and sorting by most popular. When done so, the list comes up as:

1. TNA Global iMPACT DVD ($19.99)
2. Samoa Joe Lockdown Special ($199.95)
3. LAX Special ($59.99)
4. AJ Styles "Unim Phenomenous" T-Shirt ($19.99)
5. Nash "Big Sexy Tour" T-shirt ($19.99)
6. Samoa Joe "Drastic Times, Drastic Measures" T-Shirt ($19.99)
7. TNA "Cross The Line" T-Shirt ($19.99)
8. Shark Boy 24:7 T-Shirt ($19.99)
9. Sting "Logo" T-Shirt ($19.99)
10. Final Resolution 2008 PPV DVD ($19.99)

No change on TNA's list, although this may have been due to the early pull.


PERSONAL JOURNAL

Wrestling isn't just about watching and reading. The best way to be a wrestling fan is to experience it live. Where is wrestling coming to in the next 2 weeks? The Personal Journal answers that question.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
1 (Jun) WWE One Night Stand San Diego, CA	2 RAW Bakersfield, CA	3 SmackDown/ECW Los Angeles, CA	4	5	6 TNA Live Poplar Bluff, MO ROH Live Hartford, CT	7 SmackDown/ECW Live Fresno, CA RAW Live Redding, CA ROH Live Philadelphia, PA
8 TNA Slammiversary Southaven, MO RAW Live Stockton, CA SmackDown/ECW Live San Jose, CA	9 RAW Oakland, CA TNA iMPACT Orlando, FL	10 TNA iMPACT Orlando, FL	11 SmackDown/ECW Live Auckland, New Zeeland	12 SmackDown/ECW Live Christchurch, New Zeeland TNA Live Liverpool, England	13 SmackDown/ECW Live Melbourne, Australia TNA Live Liverpool, England	14 RAW Live Boise, ID SmackDown/ECW Live Adelaide, South Australia TNA Live Coventry, England

Do you know a wrestling event coming up? Send one in to The Hamilton Ave Journal and we'll be sure to add it to the list.

EDITORIALS

The Editorials section is designed for you, the readers, to respond to the views presented in the Journal, send an important news item, or talk about another overlooked business related item in wrestling. Just beware: the Journal reserves the right to respond back.

From the commentary section last week, we started off by continuing to talk about Indie guys with marketing potential via Luke:

I'm only an expert after about three pints of beer, but my "analysis" was based on their size and look, foremost. WWE seem to push a lot of guys based on their marketability and mic work (Santino and the Indian Rocky Balboa for example).

I can't see Nigel or AmDrag on a birthday card anytime soon, but I could see Claudio and Hero fitting into that. My 8 year old nephew would love smashing up his Chris Hero figure with his Rey and Cena ones.

Hell, so would I.

Nick Noel chimed in with similar thoughts:

From the two indy shows I've seen, I'd have to agree with the choices of Claudio and Chris Hero, but I'd also add Rhett Titus (even though he's only a RoH student) and what about Joey Mercury? Remember when he was considered the "good" half of MNM?

What it comes down to are several factors. First, the person needs a character that people can get behind and believe in. And when the Journal uses the word "character" that does not mean a wrestling golfer, but in general something that sets them apart and makes them interesting, even if it is themselves. They need to have a look or history that is believable, the ability to engage the audience (whether through mic work, in ring performance, or a combination), and just have the intangible charisma that truly connects with a crowd. When it comes to some components, JoeG disagrees on what is needed:

I have to disagree about the importance of mic work for indy guys. WWE already has two of the best mic workers ROH ever had: CM Punk & Colt Cabana. But Punk hasn't been allowed on the mic often enough for WWE fans to know how good he is, and Cabana is still languishing away in developmental hell. So WWE can't be all that interested in mic work.

Just because they have mic skills, it does not mean the WWE is ready to utilize them yet. Do not forget that in the WWE and TNA, most of their lines are completely written for them. The writers may just have no idea how to write for CM Punk. It is up to Punk to go to the writers and show them what he can do. Instead of just waiting for things to happen, Punk could pull a producer aside, ask to have a promo taped for feedback, and send it to the writers. It is like when a wrester has a signature move and has a name for it, but the announcers do not call it that. The wrestlers themselves have a responsibility of developing their characters and trademarks as well, and they should let the announcers know. If someone in management disagrees with the decision, they'll let them know soon enough.

Switching subjects, Jeff things WrestleMania has already made a network debut:

ACTUALLY, I do remember when FOX ran the main events of Wrestlemania 11 about a decade or so ago. It was even opened with a special introduction by Vince McMahon & Jerry Lawler welcoming fans to the "Wrestlemania Special on FOX TV" (apparently taped during Wrestlemania 11 itself, as they were sitting at the announcer's table in the arena.) It was shown later in the year, I think around September or so on a Saturday night.

You are correct. After a little more research, Fox aired a one-hour WrestleMania 11 special showing Shawn Michaels vs. Diesel for the WWE Championship and Bam Bam Bigelow vs. Lawrence Taylor. Of course, this will show much more of the broadcast, so maybe that is the first time.

On the subject of WrestleMania and MyNetwork TV, Tim Schmitt asked:

Even with the special, trimmed Wrestlemania aring, do you think Smackdown will do
as well on the lesser known network, or is it a wait and see kind of thing?

It is always a wait-and-see type thing, but here are the facts: MyNetwork TV is available in MORE homes than the CW, the network tends to be a lower number channel on cable providers, and SmackDown's audience goes with SmackDown, not with the CW. When UPN and the WB merged, more than half of the new CW stations were former WB stations, which means all of those involved a move to an unknown network. This merger did not affect SmackDown's ratings in any way. People will find SmackDown and watch it and there will be no major ratings shift in one direction of the other. Most likely, the WWE will heavily advertise the change and make a special episode, so the first week's ratings might be up before returning to the 2.2 to 2.6 range.

Back in the world of TNA's ratings, Daishi had this to say:

The ironic thing about TNA is you know the backstage politicians will be pointing at the ratings and saying "Joe Don't Draw"...

And Ted G added:

Yeah, but the real problem is the stupid booking and retread wrestlers don't draw.

The real problem is inconsistency and an undifferentiated product in the marketplace. Why would a consumer want TNA when all needs are being met by the WWE or some other program? What it TNA's value proposition aside from being "Not WWE"? To Daishi's point, the ratings decline has been going on since the beginning of the year, so the end of Angle's run would be during the main timeframe. But once again, TNA iMPACT is an ensemble cast, not a one-man show. Not saying that Joe could not become a cross-over star and expand the business, but Hulk Hogan winning the WWE Championship from the Iron Sheik did not immediately make the Rock ‘n Wrestling boom. Looking back historically it appears as if it all happened quickly, but there were much slower growth curves. Even Nitro's ratings from the beginning of the nWo did not go from 2.1 to 4.8 overnight. It took the better part of a year and half to reach those heights, and it will take time, patience, and persistence to keep (or get) things moving in a positive direction.

Plenty more was written, so be sure to take a look. Also worth your read this week is:

There still is no time in the Journal's newsroom, so let's concentrate on some big topics from this past week. First up is the man training with RVD for his NWE comeback… In Defense of… The Ultimate Warrior (Part 1 of 3)

In Defense of… The Ultimate Warrior (Part 2 of 3)

In Defense of… The Ultimate Warrior (Part 3 of 3)

The other big topic is that we have just passed the anniversary of Owen Hart's death. Read the highly controversial In Defense of… Vince McMahon in the Death of Owen Hart. If only the commentary section existed two and half years ago.

And, of course, a week would not be complete without a good dose of JP Prag's own HIDDEN HIGHLIGHTS!!


CLOSING BELL

This concludes Issue #36 (Volume 1) of THE HAMILTON AVE JOURNAL. Join us next week as we get ready to ring the bell again.

Till then!