The Hamilton Ave Journal 06.07.08: Volume 1 – Issue 37
Posted by JP Prag on 06.07.2008
The Journal projects ratings for RAW, SmackDown, ECW, and TNA iMPACT for the remainder of the year, the Rock finally returns to the Top Ten while Karen Angle tries to make the list, and SmackDown is sent to stay overseas.
THE HAMILTON AVE JOURNAL
By JP Prag
Volume 1 – Issue 37
ABOUT THE JOURNAL
The Hamilton Ave Journal is the only wrestling news report focused solely on the business of wrestling. Here in the Journal we not only look at the stories that are important to the investor and business-minded person, but also delve deeper into stories that most fans of wrestling would overlook. That is because the Journal is about getting the heart of the matters that affect the companies and outlooks of the wrestling world.
And where is Hamilton Ave? That is the location of the WWE Production Studio in Stamford, CT, and thus the most powerful place in the wrestling world. Besides, The East Main Street Journal just does not have the right ring to it.
Who am I? I am JP Prag: consultant, entrepreneur, businessman, journalist, and wrestling fan.
Now, ring the bell because the market is open.
WHAT'S NEWS
The Journal's front page area known as What's News isn't just about telling you what has happened. The stories in this section are about what will have an effect on the wrestling industry, individual federations, and the wallets of the fans.
LEAD STORY: Where are ratings going?
Over the past few week, the Journal has been highlighting the state of decreasing ratings among RAW, ECW, and iMPACT (SmackDown has stayed relatively in the same range). The situation at the WWE has turned from concerning to desperate pleas. Not only is the WWE doing a large money giveaway to try to gain viewers (money that stock holders would like seeing growing new business lines, re-investing in the company, or lining their own pockets), but WWE.com put up a defensive article about the record low rating on Memorial Day.
WWE made the point that all television was down for the week and that RAW was still the number one show on cable in its normal time slot. While this is true, being the best of the worst does not make you any good. The WWE also compared themselves to the broadcast networks, which is not a fair measure as they have been losing viewers to cable for years. What was once considered an abysmal rating on broadcast television (8.0) is not considered a decent success. Television audiences have been thinned out due to choice, but the WWE and TNA are supposed to be "destination programming".
The idea of "destination programming" is that viewers tune in at a specific time and it important to their socio-psychological behavior and discussions with others to do so. The WWE and TNA have become less important to watch and thus have lost their appeal as destination programming. That has resulted in many viewers (this reporter included) time-shifting shows through DVR and other means. Still, that number is not as large as supposed. Figures released this week saw that due to time-shifting, the RAW rating may have been as much as 10-12% higher. 10-12% of 3.1 is 0.31 to 0.37. Although this would have helped to bring RAW to 3.4, this is still well below the average number of viewers RAW had at this time last year, and even further less than the year before that.
WWE and TNA have lost viewers, plain and simple. Despite the writers strike last autumn, television has generally recovered the vast majority of total viewers (95%). Those viewers, on the other hand, are find other programming to interest them and are not even time shifting wrestling to the extent that they are capable of.
So the question then becomes: where are we going? If there cycles to the ratings and a general direction, where will these shows end up this year?
To come up with a credible projection, the Journal developed an analysis of average monthly ratings for the entire existence of all of the shows. The years were then bucketed into averages of 3-year curves, 5-year curves, and all-time curves. These curves were then given a weighted average of 65%, 25%, and 10% respectively. So a show like RAW will be more swayed by recent ratings but still take into account it's entire history to some extent while ECW will only be affected by its entire existence because it is all within 3 years (none of ECW on TNN was included).
With this equation, the results came up as follows. First RAW:
After a minor rebound during the summer, RAW will slip down and stay in the lower 3's throughout the rest of the year. There will be several weeks with sub-3 ratings, most notably in December and perhaps October.
Next up, SmackDown:
SmackDown will face a hard battle in the Fall, but ratings will rebound and by the end of the year SmackDown will be in its normal 2.5-2.6 range. There will be no great growth on SmackDown, but it will remain the most steady of the shows throughout the year.
The newbie, ECW:
ECW will see a slight bounce back, especially with the upcoming combination with RAW. After that, the underlying issues with ECW will continue to keep the show in the 1.0 to 1.1 range. ECW's contract with SciFi expires in December and this will be a critical issue at the end of the year.
Last but not least, TNA iMPACT:
TNA has not hit the bottom yet and will hit its traditional lowpoint in the mid-Fall (September/October). After that, TNA can begin an upward swing into next year, but the question remains if they can take the natural momentum and turn it into extraordinary growth.
All and all, this will not be a great few months for wrestling. But despite the bad news, there is a chance for an upswing, especially as the year comes to an end. If 2008 is the year of debilitating illness, 2009 could be the year of rebuilding and true growth.
Newsbites
Some items of note in the rest of the wrestling business world:
WWE's stock was a featured on the Analysts Review on June 3, 2008, along with Marvel, Dreamworks, Take-Two, and Electronic Arts.
The WWE has pulled Ric Flair from an NWA show that included Flair's induction into the NWA Hall of Fame. Most feel this is because the NWA was going to film the event and the WWE does not want unauthorized footage of Flair being used. It remains to be seen if Flair will be allowed to visit other NWA shows later this year.
MARKETPLACE
In the Marketplace we look at the trends in television ratings. This section is less for critical analysis by the Journal but more for the reader to see what is really going on and to draw their own conclusions.
As with stocks, here in the Journal we track the progress of television ratings. If ratings are the barometer by which we judge the product, then over the course of 52 weeks we should be able to see patterns, trends, and anomalies. Please note that gaps in the chart below are due to data not being released/available.
For the week ending Thursday June 5, 2008, here are the current standings of our shows:
RAW
Close (This Week's Rating): 3.1
Open (Last Week's Rating): 2.9
Percentage Change: ▲ 6.9%
52-Week High: 4.2
52-Week Low: 2.5
All Time High: 8.1
All Time Low: 1.8
SmackDown*
Close (This Week's Rating): 2.3
Open (Last Week's Rating): 2.4
Percentage Change: ▼ 4.2%
52-Week High: 2.9
52-Week Low: 2.2
All Time High: 5.8
All Time Low: 1.0
* SmackDown! ratings may include fast overnight if final ratings are not posted. Also, SmackDown! ratings are for the prior week as overnights are not available before this article goes to print.
ECW
Close (This Week's Rating): 1.1
Open (Last Week's Rating): 1.0
Percentage Change: ▲ 10.0%
52-Week High: 1.8
52-Week Low: 0.6
All Time High: 2.3
All Time Low: 0.6
TNA iMPACT**
Close (This Week's Rating): 0.9
Open (Last Week's Rating): 1.0
Percentage Change: ▼ 6.0%
52-Week High: 1.2
52-Week Low: 0.9
All Time High: 1.2
All Time Low: 0.6
** TNA iMPACT's are for the prior week as ratings may not be available at the time of the Journal's posting
Analysis:
The ratings have already been well covered this week, but the Journal has also been looking at three-year trends of the shows. Two weeks ago TNA iMPACT was covered, followed by RAW last week. This week, the Journal does the same analysis to SmackDown:
SmackDown has been following a similar path as RAW with a downward slope but not as straight as TNA's. And although SmackDown is outperforming 2006 (the other two programs were both below, the show is still running below 2007 averages. SmackDown, though, has historically not had the same drastic fluctuations as RAW. On the other side, it does follow a similar slope pattern with a downward slump through the remainder of the summer. That means that SmackDown may not have bottomed out yet and could have lower ratings just before ramping up to begin the move to MyNetworkTV. Although those ratings will be tremendous for that network, they will in not way be near what SmackDown had been doing just last year.
MONEY AND INVESTING
We all know that wrestling is a business, but we don't often pay attention to what sells and makes money. Money and Investing looks into the top selling items in the world of wrestling and any interesting figures that may have come out this week.
What are the top ten selling items for the WWE? From WWEShopZone.com:
1. Triple H Hammer T-Shirt ($25)
2. Jeff Hardy Armbands ($15)
3. The Rock: The Most Electrifying Man In Sports Entertainment DVD ($34.95, on sale $19.62)
4. The Rock: The Most Electrifying Man In Sports Entertainment DVD/T-Shirt Package ($59.95, on sale $27.63)
5. Hardys Purple Logo Pendant ($10)
6. John Cena 8-Bit T-Shirt ($25)
7. WWE Black Gift Bag ($3)
8. Fathers Day 2008 T-Shirt ($25, on sale $17.98)
9. Undertaker 16-0 T-Shirt ($25)
10. Chris Jericho Entertainment T-Shirt ($25)
Have Rock sales will travel? The WWE got a little boost by selling off some old items while the usual suspects (Cena, Hardy, and Triple H) continued to dominate the current crop of wrestlers. But two men who have not made the list in a whole also cropped up in the Undertaker and Chris Jericho. The Undertaker may be seeing a boost due to his "banishment" and it looks like Chris Jericho is benefiting from his extra exposure. Will this lead to a sustained push and direction for Jericho? Well, to answer that look no further than either Hardy to see that the WWE does not always listen to sales.
TNA releases a list of Top Ten selling items, but the list has not been updated to current products in quite some time. Until TNA updates the list, the Journal will be take the list of featured products and sorting by most popular. When done so, the list comes up as:
1. TNA Global iMPACT DVD ($19.99)
2. LAX Special ($59.99)
3. AJ Styles "Unim Phenomenous" T-Shirt ($19.99)
4. Nash "Big Sexy Tour" T-shirt ($19.99)
5. Samoa Joe "Drastic Times, Drastic Measures" T-Shirt ($19.99)
6. Sting "Logo" T-Shirt ($19.99)
7. TNA "Cross The Line" T-Shirt ($19.99)
8. Shark Boy 24:7 T-Shirt ($19.99)
9. Final Resolution 2008 PPV DVD ($19.99)
10. Kurt Angle T-Shirt Triple Pack ($26.99)
There was a little movement on the list this week as most items moved up one spot with Sting jumping ahead of a few others. Kurt Angle also returned to the list, but what is more interesting is a few spots down is wife Karen Angle. Last week, the Journal spotlighted a number of new products being developed by TNA, but a Karen Angle Women's baby-T was not on the official list. Looks like TNA slipped this one under the radar to test out if Karen is paying off as a knockout.
PERSONAL JOURNAL
Wrestling isn't just about watching and reading. The best way to be a wrestling fan is to experience it live. Where is wrestling coming to in the next 2 weeks? The Personal Journal answers that question.
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
8 (Jun)
TNA Slammiversary Southaven, MO
RAW Live Stockton, CA
SmackDown/ECW Live San Jose, CA
9
RAW Oakland, CA
TNA iMPACT Orlando, FL
10
TNA iMPACT Orlando, FL
11
SmackDown/ECW Live Auckland, New Zeeland
12
SmackDown/ECW Live Christchurch, New Zeeland
TNA Live Liverpool, England
13
SmackDown/ECW Live Melbourne, Australia
TNA Live Liverpool, England
14
RAW Live Boise, ID
SmackDown/ECW Live Adelaide, South Australia
TNA Live Coventry, England
15
RAW Live Ogden, UT
SmackDown/ECW Live Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
TNA Live Essex, England
16
RAW Salt Lake City, UT
SmackDown/ECW Live Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia
17
SmackDown/ECW Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
18
19
20
RAW Live Las Cruces, NM
TNA Live Bloomington, IL
21
RAW Live Albuquerque, NM
TNA Live Danville IL
Do you know a wrestling event coming up? Send one in to The Hamilton Ave Journal and we'll be sure to add it to the list.
EDITORIALS
The Editorials section is designed for you, the readers, to respond to the views presented in the Journal, send an important news item, or talk about another overlooked business related item in wrestling. Just beware: the Journal reserves the right to respond back.
From the commentary section last week, natedoggcats thought he had the solution to fixing ratings:
End brand extension, fire useless talent, problem solved.
This subject has been covered ad nausea, but one more time: Ending the Brand Extension does nothing to address the core issues that are at the heart of the WWE's ratings problems. At best, there will be a momentary boost in ratings and then things will go down if not below current levels. If anything has been proven with the WWE's 3-hour shows and special is that gimmicks no longer grow the product. The WWE has nothing that captivates an audience beyond their core, and seem to be having problems even maintaining the core. There are much larger fundamental issues to address then just trying to find quick fixes.
G-Walla has some interest in Vince Russo's new trading card:
Vice Russo deserves that trading card. The man's the biggest heel the company's got. Nobody gets heat like his booking decisions (or what we see as his).
Yes, to the internet fans. But as noted in the special live edition of Hidden Highlights, Vince Russo works quite hard to stay off-camera nowadays. Why he was one of the 69 is still a mystery.
411mania's own Jeff Small checked in from his little tabloid sheet to say:
It's shocking to see a news report with such a reliance upon pictures!
Shocking, indeed!
Plenty more was written, so be sure to take a look. Also worth your read this week is:
Posted By: Wormser (Guest) on June 07, 2008 at 12:18 AM
The industry seems in a downward slope, traditional or otherwise. What might be interesting to take into account would be the history of recovery and desire to change to make improvements. My opinion guesses that the show that will fight change the most seems to be RAW, who has shown through their current world champion and reliance on holding patterns that they will have a harder time coming back, vs shows that have no choice but to fight for improvement or just to be recognized, like Impact or Smackdown. ECW is in question because they don't really have the ability to be proactive aside from a few hard workers- the brand itself doesn't seem capable of maintaining a lengthy resurgence without qualified players. Becoming the new Heat may actually however save the brand and guarantee a new deal. How fast a show rebounds depends on their dedication to improvement and if you're content to work a formula and your roster isn't hungry then it's harder to come back and maintain a longterm bump beyond gimmicks like a million dollar challenge. If anything will guarantee RAW's resurgence, it will be the WWE Draft due to the new talent desperate to prove their worth on a Superstar's stage.
Posted By: The Weesel (Guest) on June 07, 2008 at 12:18 AM
So let me get this strait, What?
Posted By: Guillermo (Guest) on June 07, 2008 at 12:47 AM
"I feel like I just read an economics exam."
Did you READ the intro that told you what the column was about? Sheesh. Another fine issue, JP.
One thing I think some people don't think about is that even if you own a DVR, you can only record two things at once, and your receiver has to be on one of said two channels. So even when people DVR, there is a 50/50 chance that WWE is still getting the live rating. So I agree with you that it isn't hurting it that bad because the projected numbers show that; Vince might just be looking for another excuse here.
Posted By: James Thomlison (Registered) on June 07, 2008 at 01:11 AM
I feel like I just took an economics exam.
Posted By: Stephen Hawkins (Guest) on June 07, 2008 at 01:25 AM
Wrestling has been cyclical. However, I think the greater affluence of the general population and the proliferation of the internet (including sites like 411) has made wrestling almost predictable, so viewership is down to only the hardcore the people they sell the merchandise to. I think, in order to suck the casual viewer in again, something big has to happen that coincides with the attitude of the people that will get them to tune in and watch (not a million dollars). A huge charismatic superstar like Hulk Hogan got people to watch when people were looking for larger-than-life heroes. Then that person became a bad guy 10 years later, when the same kids who idolized him got to see him differently, when they themselves grew wiser and more cynical. It just flowed into the Attitude era, and, like the 80's wrestling boom, just got old. But some of us are still watching because we still love our wrestling.
Besides, the entire country is in recession, and maybe things will eventually pick up after this year's election...
Posted By: Johnny Polo (Guest) on June 07, 2008 at 03:00 AM
The projections are a nice idea, and I'm sure are similar to the WWE's own projections that have made panicking. Nonetheless without going back further I don't think you can claim that the month-to-month ratings fluctuations over the course of a year are consistent (i.e. always a spike in June for RAW).
Posted By: The Ratings Killer (Guest) on June 07, 2008 at 10:42 AM
when will Vince learn we dont care about the money givaway or the cheap matches with C-list celebs?What we care about is the in-ring product and match quality,not this garbage every week. Vince's money promo took 20 minutes that could have been used to have longer matches.
Posted By: Tim S. (Guest) on June 07, 2008 at 12:33 PM
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